Jeff Fox is backing the Cincinnati Reds as an underdog pick against the Mariners on Thursday. Despite their modest 9-9 record, advanced statistics rate the Reds significantly higher, scoring them a run and a half better than average and ranking them as the sixth-best team in MLB so far this season. Comparatively, Seattle ranks tied for tenth at barely above average. Jeff Fox also points out that the Reds have home-field advantage for their early getaway game and have Brady Singer starting on the mound. Singer, who is off to a perfect 3-0 start this year, adds additional confidence to Fox's pick. Given this combination of data-backed confidence, home-field advantage, and Singer's excellent current form, Fox sees Cincinnati as a valuable plus-money bet.

Jeff Fox is backing the Giants as a road underdog against the Phillies based on their strong advanced metrics. Despite the Giants' already impressive 12-4 record, Fox cites advanced stats that rate San Francisco as the best in MLB, calculated to be 2.7 runs better than the average team. By contrast, the Phillies rank half a run worse than the average team and were notably outperformed in Game 1 of this series, losing 10-4. Fox believes that starting pitcher Robbie Ray will lead the Giants to another win at Citizens Bank Park, recommending betting on the Money Line at +116 odds.

Jeff Fox recommended betting the Philadelphia Phillies moneyline at +110 against the struggling Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have started strong at 7-2, ranking among MLB's best teams and statistically performing approximately three runs better than an average opponent at a neutral site. Conversely, Atlanta is struggling at 1-8, and advanced metrics suggest their record could only marginally improve to 3-6 given their performance. Fox also highlighted the pitching matchup significantly favors Philadelphia: Phillies starter Taijuan Walker has been stellar, pitching six shutout innings in his previous appearance, while Atlanta counters with Grant Walker and his concerning 7.20 ERA. Fox considers the Phillies a strong value play given the favorable pitching matchup, team form, and advantageous odds. He plans to transition into run-line bets after gaining more confidence in season-long data.