Jeff Mueller is fading Dalton Kincaid after reviewing the tight end’s medical chart. Kincaid is still healing from last season’s left-knee PCL sprain and has already undergone surgery on his right knee, a combination that has sapped weight and lower-body strength the Bills wanted him to add for more in-line work. Recent photos show noticeable mass loss, raising durability questions. With Dawson Knox still entrenched as the preferred run-game tight end and Buffalo unlikely to push 600 pass attempts because the team is too good for volume-driven game scripts, Mueller doubts Kincaid will see the snap share or red-zone usage needed to justify even his sagging ADP. He recommends passing on Kincaid in both season-long and best-ball drafts until the knees and role look more secure.

Jeff Mueller said Evan Engram’s repaired shoulder labrum carries minimal re-injury risk and should not affect his receiving ability. Unlike Colson Loveland’s more violent AC injury, Engram’s labrum tear is stable once range of motion and strength return—benchmarks team doctors would require before clearing him. Mueller added that Sean Payton historically isolates one pass-catching tight end in the slot while asking a blocking specialist—likely Adam Trautman, who blocked on 66 percent of snaps last year—to handle in-line work. If second-year quarterback Bo Nix takes even a modest step, that usage could funnel high-value routes Engram’s way without exposing him to blocking collisions. Given his depressed ADP in the nebulous post-Kittle tier, Mueller is scooping up Engram in best-ball drafts as a cheap path to mid-TE1 numbers.

Jeff Mueller reviewed Trevor Lawrence’s offseason left-shoulder labrum repair and concluded the only fantasy-relevant risk is a brief dip in early-season deep accuracy and velocity. Even though it is Lawrence’s non-throwing arm, quarterbacks still rely on the lead shoulder to generate rotational torque, so any biomechanical compensation could show up on passes 20-plus yards downfield. Mueller expects those glitches to disappear quickly—if they even surface—given Lawrence’s timeline and the amount of mechanic work already completed. Rich Hribar added that new OC Liam Coen designs first-read-friendly concepts, dovetailing with Lawrence’s tendency to lock onto his primary option, which should further mask any transient accuracy loss. Because Lawrence was already a middling deep passer in 2024, Mueller does not downgrade him in season-long or best-ball drafts. Investors should simply monitor early-September air-yard efficiency; if it checks out, Lawrence profiles as the same mid-QB1 tied to a condensed read progression passing game.

Jeff Mueller dismissed lingering concerns about J.J. McCarthy’s knee after last year’s meniscus repair. Initial reports of swelling and the possibility of a second scope have resolved—surgeons found no structural damage and injected biologics to calm the cartilage. McCarthy has completed his throwing program, added good weight in the weight room, and shown full lower-body load-bearing ability in agility drills, which tells Mueller the joint is tolerating twist and shear forces essential for pocket movement. While Mueller expects Minnesota to minimize designed runs this season—leaning on Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, and an upgraded offensive line—he sees no mobility restrictions and projects McCarthy to function as a pure passer in Year 1. Rich Hribar compared the rookie’s 2025 fantasy range of outcomes to Brock Purdy: fewer than 600 dropbacks but highly efficient thanks to Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, elite weapons (Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson), and a top-tier defense that will keep games scripted in his favor. Mueller therefore tags McCarthy as a strong QB3 in best-ball tournaments and a priority third quarterback in superflex builds, with the bonus of Minnesota’s favorable futures profile if he simply protects the football better than Sam Darnold did.

Jeff Mueller said Dak Prescott’s surgically-repaired right hamstring is a non-issue for 2025 redraft and best-ball formats. Because Prescott now wins almost exclusively from the pocket, Mueller is only looking for evidence that the leg can handle the torque and stabilization required at the top of Prescott’s throwing motion. Prescott has already completed his full throwing program and, per Mueller, "looks like he’s in the best shape of his life," showing no drop in velocity. Rich Hribar added that Dallas should lean pass-heavy again under Brian Schottenheimer, and that the addition of George Pickens over Jalen Tolbert plus a questionable secondary that could push shoot-outs further insulates Prescott’s floor. Since gamers were no longer drafting him for rushing anyway, Mueller advises treating Prescott as a safe, mid-tier QB1 whose price is unlikely to spike but who can beat ADP through volume and efficiency.

Jeff Mueller labeled Kenneth Walker as one of the few backs he genuinely considers injury-prone. Every documented setback— groin strains, hamstring pulls, ankle sprains— involves Walker’s lower extremities, pointing to chronic soft-tissue vulnerability. Mueller believes Walker’s running biomechanics contribute to repeated stress in those areas, making future flare-ups more likely. Because the injuries have been recurrent rather than freak accidents, Mueller urged fantasy managers to bake extra risk into their projections or require a draft-day discount before investing in Walker for season-long or best-ball formats.

Jeff Mueller said drafters should treat Christian McCaffrey as fully healthy heading into 2025. Mueller explained that last year’s Achilles tendonitis was an inflammatory condition brought on by excessive sprinter-style rehab work after McCaffrey’s Super Bowl calf strain, and inflammatory tendonitis can resolve completely with rest. McCaffrey received stem-cell therapy and overhauled his offseason routine to emphasize patience, recovery, and load management. Mueller also noted that the PCL sprain was a Grade-2 injury that fully healed; McCaffrey wore a brace only to minimize shear forces while it knitted. By March he had resumed his full training program and has avoided the PUP list in OTAs. Because the 49ers publicly plan to “give him the ball as much as we can,” Mueller believes McCaffrey remains the league’s lone back capable of 24-plus fantasy points per game if he stays upright. The advice: draft aggressively— even in the top five— while simply monitoring camp reports for any new flare-ups.

Jeff Mueller downplayed Chris Godwin’s crowded injury line—fractured fibula, high-ankle sprain and deltoid-ligament repair—saying the six-to-eight-month timeline easily puts him on track for Week 1. Tampa Bay has been transparent that the veteran is simply being eased in; Todd Bowles reiterated they expect him for the opener. Because Godwin will remain the primary slot option—where change-of-direction demands are lighter—Mueller sees minimal performance loss and is not fading him for rookie Emeka Egbuka. He likened the situation to Godwin’s 2022 ACL rehab when the team slow-played camp but had him active on opening day. Mueller is happily scooping Godwin at a discount, projecting reliable PPR volume and believing the public is over-reacting to the PUP label.

Jeff Mueller explained that rookie Ricky Pearsall landed on the preseason PUP list by rule, not because of a serious setback. Pearsall finished OTAs sidelined by what the team labeled a mild hamstring strain, and under league rules any player who hasn’t practiced automatically defaults to PUP when camp opens. Mueller expects the wideout to be removed as soon as the first full practice—"Wednesday at the latest"—and labeled the soft-tissue issue insignificant. Because the market has already baked in risk, Mueller is holding his existing Pearsall exposure and will keep drafting him as a late-round flyer who could benefit if Brandon Aiyuk’s ramp-up lingers or Jauan Jennings’ contract squabble drags on.

Jeff Mueller said Brandon Aiyuk’s torn ACL was probably an isolated ligament with an MCL sprain that healed on its own, noting the 11-week surgery delay typical for self-healing MCLs. Social-media clips show Aiyuk lifting and moving well, although Mueller did see residual swelling and limited flexion around the three-month mark that keeps a repaired MCL on the table. Because camp opened with Aiyuk on PUP, drafters assume a slow ramp, but Mueller thinks there is a real shot he is activated for Week 1 and absolutely expects him no later than Week 5. He treats early activation as a huge positive because every real snap accelerates football conditioning; by Weeks 8-9 he expects the receiver to regain fantasy viability. Mueller is therefore buying the ADP slide—especially in best ball—planning to let replacement-level depth fill the early vacancy and then unleash an under-priced WR2 for the money weeks.

Jeff Mueller explained that Rashee Rice’s season-ending injury was an LCL tear paired with a surgically repaired hamstring rupture—serious on paper but far less worrisome after seeing Rice’s March–April workout clips showing full-speed change of direction and deceleration. Rice avoided the preseason PUP list and, per Andy Reid, will reclaim his high target-per-route slot role alongside Xavier Worthy once active. While legal analysts and Chiefs beat reporters project only a 2–4-game suspension, Rice’s ADP has fallen to Round 5. Mueller is aggressively drafting him there, projecting low early-season opportunity cost (replacement points fill the gap) and WR2 production over Weeks 5-17 thanks to Kansas City’s pass-heavy scheme and Rice’s 2023 efficiency (top-12 yards per route run).

Jeff Mueller is not worried about Amon-Ra St. Brown’s offseason knee scope—calling the arthroscopic meniscus cleanup minor with no long-term ramifications—but he is still passing on St. Brown at his mid-first-round ADP. Mueller prefers receivers like Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Nico Collins because Detroit scored 18 touchdowns over expectation last year, lost OC Ben Johnson plus two interior linemen, and now faces uncertain Jared Goff efficiency under a new play-caller. With St. Brown’s targets per route already dipping once Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta emerged, Mueller believes paying a premium for him introduces more downside than upside in both Best Ball and season-long formats.

Jeff Mueller said Stefon Diggs’ ACL tear was an ideal, isolated ligament injury with no meniscus or MCL involvement, allowing for a faster rehab timeline than typical multi-structure knee injuries. Diggs avoided the PUP list, has already participated fully in practices, and has another six-plus weeks to stack conditioning before Week 1. Mueller noted Diggs’ movement patterns—lateral cuts, deceleration, and explosion—look indistinguishable from pre-injury film, a key indicator the wideout can resume his normal route tree. Because he has been fully installed in Josh McDaniels’ new offense and should immediately become rookie QB Drake Maye’s first read, Mueller views him as a safe, every-week fantasy starter rather than a rehab risk.

Jeff Mueller called DeMario Douglas his favorite "best baller" of 2025 drafts. Mueller loves the combination of dirt-cheap price (WR70-71) and projected slot volume in Josh McDaniels’ offense, stressing that Douglas himself has been raving all offseason about how often the Patriots plan to move receivers around and feed him the ball. By pairing Douglas with rookie quarterback Drake Maye—currently falling to QB16—drafters can scoop a full PPR stack that frees them to hammer running backs or elite wideouts early. Mueller thinks Douglas has a realistic path to lead New England in targets and become a weekly floor play who still owns spike-week upside whenever the Patriots push tempo.