Donabedian labeled Nacua a frequent ESPN reach: he sits eighth in both default rank and platform ADP while his high-stakes ADP has fallen to 12. Ongoing worries about Matthew Stafford’s back and Davante Adams siphoning targets have cooled best-ball rooms, but that dip has not hit ESPN yet. With Nacua even going ahead of Malik Nabers on ESPN, Donabedian advises passing at that premium and shopping the tier for better risk-reward profiles.

McMillan is ranked 65th on ESPN but 47.5 on the NFFC/Drafters average, and Donabedian called him one of the platform’s best bargains. The two-WR ESPN format pushes WR3/4 talents down the board, yet Donabedian prefers McMillan’s weekly-starter upside over similarly ranked quarterbacks and tight ends. He recommends scooping the promising Carolina wideout a round or two ahead of ESPN ADP before the market corrects.

Donabedian urged caution on Garrett Wilson. Although ESPN drafters let him slide to pick 36 (vs 25.4 in high-stakes rooms), Donabedian still will not touch Wilson before Round 3. He ranks the Jet WR 30th because Justin Fields’ arrival caps both passing volume and efficiency. If you are bullish on Fields the ESPN price looks like a steal, but Donabedian views the quarterback fit as a ceiling limiter and would rather allocate third-round capital elsewhere.

Jerry Donabedian said Chase Brown is a glaring value on ESPN where he sits at default rank 32 while his averaged NFFC/Drafters ADP is 22.2. With Zack Moss recently waived and rookie Tahj Brooks stuck with the second team, Donabedian expects Brown to reprise last year’s late-season feature role, ceding only obvious passing downs to Samaje Perine. Brown averaged 20.9 PPR points over his final eight 2024 games; even a 15 % drop still pays off at a late–Round-2 price. High-stakes drafters have adjusted, but ESPN managers have not, letting you draft a likely 20-touch back at the 2⁄3 turn.

Swift’s ADP keeps climbing (82.75 → 70.40; +12.35, +14.9 %), and Donabedian is still buying. The Bears waited until Round 7 to draft an RB and added no veterans, leaving only Ty Chandler and Will Shipley behind Swift. In a Caleb Williams-led offense that should create plenty of red-zone snaps, Donabedian sees three-down touch upside that is not yet fully captured by a late-6th/early-7th cost.

Kittle climbed from the 4/5 turn to early Round 4 (49.3 → 39.4; +9.9, +20.1 %). Donabedian is puzzled, pointing out the tight end hasn’t hit 100 targets since 2019 and now competes with a fully healthy Christian McCaffrey plus (eventually) Brandon Aiyuk. He ranks Kittle a tier below Brock Bowers and Trey McBride and is fading the new price unless the 49ers’ target tree thins unexpectedly.

St. Brown’s ADP dropped from 9.60 to 11.35 (-1.75, ‑18.2 %) as drafters bake in OC John Morton’s promise of more downfield shots to Jameson Williams (+9.4 % ADP). Donabedian agrees, moving ARSB to the Round 1/2 turn because a shorter-area role caps his ceiling relative to Nico Collins or Puka Nacua in the same range. Unless volume spikes, the profile now looks more high-floor than league-winning.

Mixon slid from 46.0 to 57.8 (-11.8, ‑25.7 %) once Houston handed Nick Chubb $1.5 M guaranteed. Donabedian expects the Texans to "find a way to reduce Mixon’s workloads" regardless of Chubb’s health after Mixon wore down last December. Even with elite RB1 stretches in mid-2024, the new committee risk and age-29 wear make Mixon an avoid for Donabedian at current ADP.

Dobbins’ move to Denver yanked his ADP up from 190.5 to 112.6 (+77.9, +40.9 %), and Donabedian still views him as a solid buy. While conceding the post-Achilles explosiveness may never fully return, he noted that Dobbins is an assignment-sound back who can block or catch, giving him three-down pathways in an offense that could pop if Bo Nix takes a Year-2 leap. Donabedian is comfortable drafting both Dobbins and RJ Harvey at current prices.

Freiermuth’s ADP cratered from 166.6 to 203.6 (-37.0, ‑22.2 %) once the Steelers traded for Jonnu Smith, and Donabedian still “can’t get excited.” He compared the likely target split to 2023 Atlanta, where both Smith and Kyle Pitts hovered in tight-end purgatory. Unless one misses significant time, Freiermuth now projects as a low-ceiling TE2, making even the discounted tag tough to click outside of deep-tournament Steeler stacks.

Calling the market “far too low,” Donabedian loves scooping Darren Waller after his move to Miami drove only a modest ADP jump from 228.0 to 188.5 (+17.3 %). Waller still showed juice late in 2023, has just 3,758 career offensive snaps (light mileage for a 33-year-old), and fits perfectly as a TE3 on Dolphins stacks that already feature Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. Donabedian sees little downside and plenty of spike-week potential at this cost.

Wright’s ADP rocketed from 182.3 to 163.5 (+18.8, +10.3 %), and Donabedian still labeled him a “fantastic” pick. With Raheem Mostert gone, only Alexander Mattison sits between the rookie and meaningful touches behind De’Von Achane. Donabedian cautioned that some drafters may be overestimating screen-pass upside after the Jonnu Smith trade, but the path to early-down work in a top-five offense keeps Wright squarely on his target list at today’s price.

Donabedian called Xavier Worthy “a good gamble at the 3/4 turn” after his ADP slid from 41.75 to 47.85 (-6.10, ‑14.6 %) while teammate Rashee Rice surged on delayed-suspension optimism. He reminded drafters that Worthy earned heavy rookie snaps at age 21, improved down the stretch and owns the speed/QB combo (Patrick Mahomes) to pay off even on 6-7 targets per game. Volume worries are priced in, making the slide a buying window.

Jerry Donabedian said the market finally pushed Christian McCaffrey’s Underdog/Drafters ADP from 11.55 in May to 7.90 in mid-July (+3.65 spots, +31.6 %). After practicing without limitations and drawing "explosive" reviews from fullback Kyle Juszczyk, Donabedian argued that McCaffrey is as likely as anyone to finish 2025 as fantasy’s No. 1 non-QB scorer. While acknowledging a bit more injury downside than Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, he has “zero problem” clicking McCaffrey in the middle of Round 1 and expects the community to shove him into the top half of the first by the end of summer best-ball season.

Harvey slid from ADP 53.2 to 63.9 (-20.1%) after Denver signed J.K. Dobbins, but Donabedian still likes the explosive back. He doubts Dobbins ever regains pre-injury burst and views both runners as complementary pieces in an offense that could take a leap if Bo Nix progresses. Harvey retains breakaway speed and three-down capability; Donabedian calls him a ‘solid pick’ who can out-score cost even in a timeshare. With Dobbins’ price climbing 78 spots, Donabedian prefers taking the discount on Harvey as the cheaper exposure to a potentially ascending Broncos backfield.

Downs has climbed from ADP 98.0 to 85.3 (+12.9%) on speculation Daniel Jones could beat out Anthony Richardson. Donabedian explained that a Jones-led offense would feature higher completion rates and more short passing—exactly the slot volume that fuels Downs’ fantasy value. Richardson’s shoulder ‘isn’t expected to threaten camp,’ but missed OTA reps and his historical rushing tendency still cap target volume. Downs now projects for a steady 6-8 looks per week if Jones opens as QB1, making him a solid Round 8/9 pick and an easy bring-back in Colts stacks.

Freiermuth’s ADP has cratered from 166.6 to 203.6 (-22.2%) after Pittsburgh traded for Jonnu Smith, and Donabedian still isn’t buying. He expects a 2023-Falcons redux where Smith and Freiermuth cannibalize each other—enough targets to stay on the field, not enough to crack best-ball lineups. With Aaron Rodgers likely to funnel work to DK Metcalf outside, Donabedian believes a meaningful Freiermuth win probably requires a Smith injury. He is passing on Freiermuth unless the price sinks even further into the last two rounds.

Wright’s ADP climbed from 182.3 to 163.5 (+10.3%) yet Donabedian still calls him ‘way undervalued.’ With Raheem Mostert gone, only Alexander Mattison sits between Wright and touches behind De’Von Achane. The analyst notes Mike McDaniel wants to regain the 2022-23 vertical attack, meaning fewer tight-end screens and more explosive run looks. Wright’s straight-line speed fits that philosophy, giving him a clear path to weekly best-ball usability if Achane misses time. Donabedian recommends scooping Wright as a late-round RB lottery ticket, especially in Hill/Waddle builds.

Kittle’s ADP has surged from 49.3 to 39.4 (+20.1%), pushing him into the early fourth round. Donabedian can’t justify the price, noting Kittle hasn’t eclipsed 100 targets since 2019 and now competes with a fully healthy Christian McCaffrey plus (eventually) Brandon Aiyuk. Even with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, Kittle’s fantasy ceiling has relied on unsustainably high yards per target. Donabedian views the TE5 as closer to the Sam LaPorta tier than to Brock Bowers/Trey McBride and warned drafters they’re paying for last year’s efficiency spike rather than banking on reliable volume.

Mixon has fallen 25.7% in ADP (46.0 to 57.8) after Houston inked Nick Chubb to a one-year, $2.5 million deal with $1.5 million guaranteed. Donabedian expects the Texans to trim Mixon’s 2024 workhorse usage regardless—either because Chubb flashes post-ACL explosiveness or the staff simply wants to keep Mixon fresh after he faded in December. Mixon produced elite RB1 stretches last season but only after missing three games with an ankle injury, reinforcing durability concerns. Donabedian cautioned that Mixon now carries more downside than the backs being drafted around him and advised fading at his current late-fourth/early-fifth price.

Donabedian pointed out that Xavier Worthy’s ADP has slid from 41.8 to 47.9 (-14.6%) while Rashee Rice has leapt 35% amid news his legal case won’t be resolved until 2026. With Marquise Brown also in the mix, drafters fear target volume, but Donabedian thinks that concern has swung too far. He reminded readers Worthy was a 2024 first-round pick who improved every month of his age-21 rookie campaign and now catches passes from Patrick Mahomes. Given Worthy’s elite speed, Donabedian believes 6-7 weekly targets can still generate spike weeks and labeled him an ideal gamble at the 3/4 turn, especially in Mahomes stacks.

Jerry Donabedian said the market finally corrected on Christian McCaffrey, whose Underdog/Drafters ADP has jumped from 11.6 to 7.9 (+31.6%) after a fully-participatory spring and glowing camp reports from fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Donabedian emphasized that McCaffrey 'is as likely as anyone to be the leading non-QB fantasy scorer' and has no lingering limitations from last year’s calf issue. He is comfortable drafting McCaffrey anywhere in the mid-first and expects the price to settle in the top half of Round 1 by late August, noting the only real risk is the usual durability tax that comes with 300-touch potential.

Donabedian highlighted 'second-order' uncommon pairings—duos that are scarce not because of ADP distance but because another teammate usually siphons the stack. Kyler Murray is routinely grouped with Trey McBride, pushing the Murray-Brock Bowers combo well below the expected 8 % frequency. Other leverage duos he flagged: CeeDee Lamb with J.J. McCarthy (McCarthy almost always rides with Jefferson), Ja'Marr Chase with Dak Prescott (Chase managers draft Joe Burrow), and Khalil Shakir with Zay Flowers (few rosters eat two top-7 quarterbacks in Allen and Jackson). Snagging these overlooked combinations adds differentiation without forcing positional or ADP reaches.

Donabedian suggested combining two of three quarterback stacks that share a bye to slash roster overlap, citing a Josh Allen–Lamar Jackson pairing as a prime example. Both signal-callers rest Week 7, and their Round 3-4 ADPs plus the double-bye scare mean very few drafters click both. While the construction slightly lowers advancement odds, any Buffalo/Baltimore core that survives the regular season wields enormous Week 16-17 ceiling because of dual MVP-caliber rush-pass upside. He cautioned to balance the roster with a third stack on a different bye (e.g., Herbert-McConkey) so the team is not completely punted in a single week.

Donabedian encouraged swapping expensive pass-catchers for cheaper teammates to create low-frequency stacks. His example: a Vikings build of J.J. McCarthy with T.J. Hockenson (Rounds 7-8) and Jalen Nailor (Rounds 18-20) instead of the hyper-common McCarthy-Justin Jefferson-Jordan Addison trio. He paired that with Tua Tagovailoa plus bargain-priced Darren Waller (Rounds 15-16) rather than Jaylen Waddle, and a Brock Purdy stack that avoids Christian McCaffrey. These substitutions leave Rounds 1-2 free for running backs, preserve QB-receiver correlation, and produce a playoff lineup most opponents will not share.

Donabedian advised using late-first-round picks (10-12) on two receivers who usually go in the middle of Round 2—A.J. Brown and Ladd McConkey—to manufacture a pairing almost impossible to replicate. The only other path requires both players falling to the 2-3 turn, an outcome he "has never seen." Similar logic applies to taking top-five swings on 1-2-turn names such as Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Audric Estime Jeanty or Derrick Henry and then following with third-round options like Bucky Irving, Tee Higgins, Trey McBride, or Garrett Wilson that seldom wrap back. The small reach tax is repaid by a playoff roster that dodges duplication while still rostering two top-15 talents.

Jerry Donabedian said drafters should smash Ladd McConkey at the 2-3 turn any time he slips past his normal mid-Round-2 ADP when they have already taken Ja'Marr Chase 1.01. Because Chase managers almost never get another pick before McConkey’s usual range, Donabedian estimates fewer than 1 % of all Chase rosters will own the Chargers rookie. Accepting that ADP 'gift' gives your playoff portfolio a uniquely built, high-ceiling WR-WR start without sacrificing early-round capital, a major edge in large-field best ball finals that are often clogged with near-duplicate Chase lineups.

Downs’ ADP climbed from 97.95 to 85.30 (+12.9 %). Donabedian attributes the rise to increased chatter that Daniel Jones could beat out Anthony Richardson. A Jones-led attack would feature more quick, accurate underneath throws, perfectly matching Downs’ slot skill set (24.5 % rookie target share on <10-yard routes). Even if Richardson wins the job, Donabedian thinks the price fairly reflects Downs’ PPR floor.

Etienne surged from ADP 121.2 to 98.9 (+18.4 %), yet Donabedian calls him one of his favorite picks. Spring practice reports confirmed Etienne retained the clear lead-back role under new HC Liam Coen, and Donabedian expects the offense to remain RB-centric even as Trevor Lawrence pushes the ball downfield more. He’s happy to pay the new 9th-round price for Etienne’s three-down workload and proven breakaway ability.

Richardson’s ADP has cratered from 168.6 to 196.4 (-16.5 %) after another minor right-shoulder issue and beat-writer buzz that Daniel Jones could open Week 1. Donabedian says the dual risk of re-injury and benching is brutal for best ball formats where burned roster spots are fatal. He is largely steering clear unless Richardson free-falls well past current pricing.

Kittle has vaulted from the 4/5 turn (49.3 ADP) to the early fourth round (39.4, +20.1 %). Donabedian is skeptical because the veteran hasn’t topped 100 targets since 2019, and Christian McCaffrey’s increased usage should pull even more underneath looks. With LaPorta, Bowers and McBride available in similar ranges, Donabedian views Kittle’s new tag as an overpay unless Brandon Aiyuk’s PUP stint becomes long-term.

St. Brown’s ADP backed up from 9.60 to 11.35 (-18.2 %). Donabedian attributes the slide to OC John Morton’s vow to unlock Jameson Williams and stretch the field. With Jared Goff’s aDOT a league-low 6.3 last year, any schematic shift toward deeper routes likely siphons some of St. Brown’s quick-hitting volume. Donabedian now values him at the 1/2 turn, behind higher-aDOT elites like Nico Collins and Puka Nacua.

Mixon’s ADP slid from 46.0 to 57.8 (-25.7 %) once Houston inked Nick Chubb. Donabedian believes the Texans will intentionally trim Mixon’s touches after he wore down last December (numbers dipped badly after a three-game ankle absence earlier in 2024). Even if Chubb is merely a complementary back, Donabedian expects fewer 20-touch weeks for Mixon, making him overpriced compared to similar-tier backs who face less competition.

Dobbins’ signing rocketed his ADP from 190.5 to 112.6 (+40.9 %). Donabedian concedes the 2020 explosiveness is probably gone but argues the former Raven still blocks, catches, and processes well enough to play all three downs. In an offense that could take a leap if Bo Nix progresses, Donabedian thinks Dobbins and incumbent RJ Harvey are both undervalued back-end RB2/borderline flex options at their new prices.

Waller leapt from ADP 228.0 to 188.5 (+17.3 %), yet Donabedian still loves him as a late TE3. He notes Waller’s career 1.10 yards per offensive snap (4,124 yards on 3,758 snaps) and relatively low mileage for a soon-to-be 33-year-old. While Jonnu Smith may command more overall targets, Waller can still be the seam-stretch piece in Mike McDaniel’s renewed vertical attack and is especially attractive in Hill/Waddle/Tua builds.

Wright’s ADP climbed from 182.3 to 163.5 (+10.3 %), and Donabedian still calls him “fantastic” value. With Raheem Mostert gone, only Alexander Mattison backs up De'Von Achane, giving Wright an immediate No. 2 role in one of the league’s fastest offenses. Donabedian cautions that drafters might be over-projecting RB targets after the Jonnu Smith trade, but the cost still bakes in minimal risk for Wright’s 4.3-speed splash-play profile.

Donabedian called Worthy a great gamble at the 3-4 turn after his ADP slid from 41.75 to 47.85 (-14.6 %). Rice’s legal reprieve and the addition of Marquise Brown have scared drafters, but Worthy was a 2024 first-round pick who earned heavy snaps and improved all season as a 21-year-old. With Patrick Mahomes’ deep-ball aggression, Donabedian thinks 6–7 weekly targets are enough for spike-week utility, making the current discount too steep.

Jerry Donabedian said the market finally caught up to Christian McCaffrey after his full-speed offseason. McCaffrey took every rep during OTAs, drew raves from Kyle Juszczyk for looking "as explosive as ever," and has pushed his Underdog/Drafters ADP from 11.55 in mid-May to 7.90 in mid-July (+31.6 %). Donabedian expects him to be the most likely non-QB to top the fantasy scoring chart and is perfectly comfortable grabbing him in the middle of Round 1, predicting his price settles in the top half of the first by late August despite the well-known durability downside.