Jim Coventry argued that Sam LaPorta is overvalued as TE4 because Detroit’s underlying philosophy has not changed from the first half of 2024, when LaPorta averaged just 2.8 targets and 7 PPR points while the Lions leaned on defense and the run. LaPorta’s second-half surge happened only after a rash of defensive injuries forced Jared Goff’s attempts from 25 per game up to the mid-30s. The Lions enter 2025 with a healthier secondary, Aidan Hutchinson back anchoring the pass rush, and a schedule that should allow them to stay in their preferred ground-and-pound script. Fewer pass attempts means fewer high-value looks for LaPorta, making him a risky investment at his early-round draft cost.

Jim Coventry cautioned managers chasing Xavier Worthy’s late-season breakout. Worthy produced WR2 numbers only because he stepped into the Rashi Rice role after Rice injured his knee. With Rice healthy and entrenched as the offense’s alpha, Coventry expects Worthy to revert to his intended lid-lifter duties. That is a problem, he said, because Patrick Mahomes ranked among the league’s least efficient deep passers last year. Add established targets Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce, and Coventry doubts a down-field-only Worthy can justify a top-20 WR draft slot when fantasy playoffs roll around.

Jim Coventry warned that James Cook's RB15 price bakes in last year's unsustainable touchdown spike and ignores his shrinking role. Cook found the end zone 18 times in 2024 after scoring just seven in his prior 33 games, while Josh Allen continued to steal double-digit rushing TDs. Coventry pointed out Cook’s scrimmage yards dropped from 1,567 in 2023 to 1,267 and that his yards per carry cratered to 2.64 when the Bills tried giving him bell-cow workloads late in 2023. Buffalo responded by trimming his snap share to 36-46% after Week 10 of 2024 and funneling more touches to Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. With fewer snaps, likely touchdown regression, and real competition, Coventry called Cook a bad bet at his current ADP.

Jim Coventry said fading Bo Nix at his current QB8 ADP is prudent. Nix's 2024 fantasy success — 430 rushing yards and three 25-plus-point outings in the final seven games — came only because Denver's running game was dysfunctional and the defense forced shootouts, compelling Sean Payton to let the quarterback scramble and throw more than desired. Coventry noted that Denver spent the offseason patching those weaknesses: they signed J.K. Dobbins, drafted RJ Harvey, and already boast a sturdy offensive line, while the defense added three high-level starters and now profiles as an elite, ball-control unit. With a competent ground attack and a defense that should dictate lower-volume scripts, Nix will revert to Payton’s preferred caretaker role, losing the rushing attempts and pass volume that inflated last year’s totals. Coventry expects him to finish closer to QB12 than QB8 and labeled him an avoid in season-long drafts.

Jim Coventry pushed Rashee Rice up from 70th in July to 40th in the August 14 Roundtable update. The article notes Rice "had fallen to 54th on the expectation of a suspension" but has now "rebounded" to 43rd overall in the composite, and Coventry’s revised rank is even more aggressive. Coventry’s move is tied to the diminished suspension outlook—reinforced by Friday’s headline that "a settlement could be reached" in Rice’s case. With fewer missed games now projected, Coventry views Rice as a viable every-week PPR starter and the clear WR1 in Kansas City’s offense once active, making him a draft target in the late-fourth/early-fifth round of single-QB PPR formats.

Jim Coventry warned that Zay Flowers’ WR28 cost ignores Baltimore’s post-Week 9 identity change. Flowers posted five 18.5-plus PPR outings in the first nine games, but once Lamar Jackson operated almost exclusively from shotgun with Derrick Henry beside him, the Ravens became run-centric. From Week 10 on Flowers topped 12 PPR points only once as Jackson pushed the ball downfield to Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews when defenses stacked the box. Coventry noted that Flowers’ 85th-percentile yards-after-catch ability cannot overcome a dramatic target squeeze and expects the same script in 2025, making Flowers a trap pick.

Jim Coventry highlighted Cedric Tillman—going outside WR60—as a must-draft. After Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo last year, Tillman entered the lineup in Week 7 and, over his first three starts, averaged 7 receptions, 85 yards and a TD. A concussion ended his season, but Coventry emphasized his intermediate/downfield skill set and fit opposite Jerry Jeudy. Tillman produced those numbers with poor quarterback play and Coventry expects similar conditions at worst ("best case is Joe Flacco"), yet still sees Tillman smashing ADP because the role and talent are intact.

Jim Coventry touted Christian Kirk as a value outside WR55. Despite missing 14 games over the last two seasons, Kirk closed 2024 strong—averaging 11 PPR points and at least 59 yards in each of Jacksonville’s final six games. Coventry notes Kirk now slides into Houston’s slot role that put Stefon Diggs on a 1,000-yard pace in half a season. With defenses focused on Nico Collins and rookie outside options, and with C.J. Stroud distributing, Coventry believes Kirk can post another 1,000-yard campaign and beat his draft cost handily. He is not worried about rookie Jalen Knoll siphoning snaps.

Jim Coventry said Keon Coleman is mis-priced just outside WR50 even though he flashed before injury. From Weeks 4-8 last season Coleman averaged 64 yards, 5 targets and 0.4 TDs, production Coventry called "the start of a breakout." A chipped wrist bone ended that momentum and kept him from regaining snaps, disguising his progress. With Josh Allen and no entrenched perimeter threat, Coleman is projected to be Buffalo’s top outside receiver in 2025. Coventry expects the sophomore to finish five-to-eight spots ahead of ADP, making him a late-round steal for season-long drafts.

Jim Coventry projected a big rebound for Jake Ferguson, who managed only 494 yards and zero touchdowns last season while battling injury and suffering through Cooper Rush starts when Dak Prescott missed half the year. In the seven games Prescott did suit up, Ferguson posted at least 11.9 PPR points four times and topped 70 yards in three. Coventry called Ferguson an excellent seam-stretcher who will exploit space created by CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens outside. Given Prescott’s historical preference for targeting tight ends, Coventry expects Ferguson to re-enter the weekly TE1 conversation.

Jim Coventry spotlighted D.J. Moore as a bounce-back target after a “disappointing” 966-yard campaign that still produced WR14 PPR numbers thanks to 98 catches on 140 looks. Historically a 1,150-yard player in far worse situations, Moore now benefits from a repaired Bears offensive line, new play-caller Ben Johnson, and Caleb Williams escaping last year’s bubble-screen mess. With Rome Odunze providing help outside, Coventry expects Moore to maintain elite target volume in a functional, down-field passing scheme. He labeled Moore a value with top-12 upside in season-long formats.

Jim Coventry predicted Davante Adams will outperform last year’s 1,063-yard, eight-TD line now that he’s in Sean McVay’s offense. Adams battled a hamstring injury and erratic Raiders quarterbacks in 2024, yet still flashed late-season form. Coventry compared the fit to Odell Beckham’s 2021 arrival: McVay will use Adams strictly as a pass-catcher while Puka Nacua handles the dirty work. With Matthew Stafford funnelling targets almost exclusively to Nacua and Adams, Coventry expects a narrow, high-value target tree and sees no evidence of athletic decline. He forecasted a return to 1,300+ yards and double-digit touchdowns, labeling Adams a bounce-back WR1.

Jim Coventry advised buying Breece Hall at his current discount. Hall finished 2024 with 1,359 scrimmage yards and eight TDs—fine numbers but well short of the 1,800-yard, 12-TD range people drafted him for. Efficiency cratered to a career-low 4.2 YPC, ranking just 38th percentile in broken tackles and 49th in yards after contact. In an interview Hall revealed he played the entire season on an MCL sprain, explaining the dip. Coventry believes a healthy Hall ends any committee chatter in New York and resumes an alpha workload. He tagged Hall as an undervalued RB1 for 2025 drafts.

Jim Coventry said Dak Prescott is set up for a major fantasy rebound. Prescott missed half of 2024 and logged three games under 14 fantasy points while piling up turnovers, but Coventry expects 2025 volume to soar. Dallas’ defense is opening the year shorthanded, forcing shoot-outs, and the backfield led by Javonte Williams "won’t sustain drives." With CeeDee Lamb and the newly-added George Pickens stretching the outside and Jake Ferguson patrolling the seam, Prescott “will have to carry the team”—a role that produced QB2, QB3 and QB7 finishes the last three odd-numbered seasons. Coventry views him as a top-tier season-long quarterback whose value is still depressed by last year’s injury narrative.

Jim Coventry labeled DJ Moore an overlooked week-winner whose ceiling should rise in Chicago’s new setup. Moore has already shown it—remember the Thursday night eruption versus Washington—and finished WR6 two seasons ago and WR14 last year despite dismal quarterback play. Coventry expects a leap now that Caleb Williams will be protected and paired with play-designer Ben Johnson. Moore’s ability to win short, intermediate, and deep plus 85th-percentile yards after the catch means that in the 12–15-target weeks Coventry anticipates, 40-point explosions are firmly in play. At a draft cost around WR20, Moore offers affordable, league-swinging upside.

Jim Coventry acknowledged Tee Higgins’ WR12 ADP feels pricey—he has never topped 1,100 yards or 110 targets and has missed five games in each of the past two seasons—but he still views Higgins as a classic spike-week weapon. The Bengals’ defense projects to be poor, forcing Joe Burrow (seven 300-yard games last season, three over 392) to keep his foot on the gas. With opponents tilting coverage toward Ja'Marr Chase, Coventry expects Higgins to erupt whenever the volume swings his way, just as he did in the 2024 fantasy championships. The ceiling remains massive even if year-long consistency is shaky.

Jim Coventry called Drake London a prime week-winner because of the volume surge he showed late last season. London is being drafted around WR10 after piling up roughly 1,200 yards, but Coventry focused on the final six games when he averaged 11 targets and 93 yards. In the last three contests, with Michael Pennings running the offense, those numbers jumped to 13 targets, 117 yards and two-thirds of a touchdown per game. The 6-4 receiver wins all over the field, especially in the red zone, and Coventry believes continued hyper-targeting from Pennings could produce multiple 150-yard outbursts that decide fantasy matchups.

Jim Coventry said A.J. Brown can single-handedly win fantasy matchups if Philadelphia is forced to throw more. Brown still racked up 1,079 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing four games and seeing only 7.5 targets per outing last year. Coventry argued that any regression in the Saquon Barkley-led run game, a Barkley injury, or a step back from the defense would push Brown’s target count toward double digits. Because Coventry ranks Brown’s talent on the same tier as Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, he believes a 15-target scenario could realistically turn into a 9-160-2 explosion, the type of line that swings an entire fantasy week.

Jim Coventry reminded drafters that Jared Goff averaged just 19.7 fantasy points with four sub-17 games through Week 9 last season, only becoming a league winner when defensive injuries forced shootouts. With that unit healthy again, Coventry expects Detroit to revert to run-first, low-volume scripts, cutting off the 26-plus point upside we saw six times down the stretch. Add in Ben Johnson’s departure and an interior line weakened by Frank Ragnow’s retirement, and Coventry projects more early-season duds than difference-making spikes—making Goff a risky fantasy QB investment.

Jim Coventry labeled Jameson Williams a trap at WR25. In Weeks 3-7 of last season, when Detroit threw just 25 passes a game, Williams earned only 2.5 targets, salvaging 8.9 PPR points on two isolated big plays. Coventry doubts those splash opportunities repeat because the interior line downgrade will expose Jared Goff to more quick pressure, limiting time for deep routes to develop. Compounding matters, creative play-caller Ben Johnson is gone and replacement John Morton may lack the same schematic tricks that manufactured Williams’ short-area looks. With less protection and less ingenuity, Coventry sees an inconsistent, boom-bust profile that does not justify a top-30 wideout price.

Jim Coventry thinks Sam LaPorta is overpriced at TE4 because last year’s breakout was volume-driven, not guaranteed to repeat. Through Week 7—when Detroit’s defense was healthy—LaPorta saw just 2.8 targets and 7 PPR points per game, drawing bust labels. Only after the defense collapsed and Jared Goff’s attempts spiked from 25 to 35-plus did LaPorta feast. With every injured defender returning and a tougher 2025 schedule, Coventry projects Detroit to lean on its run game and defense again, slashing pass volume. St. Brown will still command his share, leaving LaPorta back in that early-season, low-usage range more often than drafters expect.

Jim Coventry cautioned that David Montgomery’s RB22 price tag ignores multiple red flags. He has missed at least three games in each of the past two seasons and four in 2021, so availability is a growing concern. Efficiency dipped from 4.6 to 4.2 yards per carry last year, and while that still ranked 63rd percentile, Coventry doubts it holds behind an interior line now starting a rookie center replacement for Frank Ragnow plus two unproven guards. Because Montgomery does most of his work between the tackles, any downgrade up the gut could sap yards and force him to live solely on touchdowns (12 scores in 14 games each of the last two years). With Gibbs siphoning touches and the blocking downgraded, Montgomery could underperform even his seemingly modest ADP.

Jim Coventry argued that drafting Amon-Ra St. Brown at WR5 assumes he can repeat a 2023 career year that is already showing cracks. St. Brown’s yards-after-catch rate plunged to the 39th percentile last season, and his explosive receptions dropped from 24 catches of 20+ yards in 2023 to just 14. He logged five sub-50-yard games (including two under 20) after having only a single sub-70 outing two years ago, while his 90-yard performances were halved from 11 to five. Coventry expects further erosion because Jared Goff is famously sensitive to pressure and will now operate behind a gutted interior line, plus mastermind coordinator Ben Johnson is gone. All these factors point to a solid floor but nowhere near the ceiling managers are paying for.

Jim Coventry warned that Jahmyr Gibbs is being overdrafted because people are chasing the 33.3 PPR points he averaged in the three playoff-run games David Montgomery missed. In the first 13 contests with Montgomery active, Gibbs produced a still-solid but far less league-tilting 18.3 PPR points. Coventry expects another near-even workload split because Montgomery is, in his words, “the heart and soul of the offense” and was signed to a new deal. The analyst added that Detroit’s once-dominant interior line took a major hit with Frank Ragnow retiring and inexperienced Christian Mahogany and rookie Tate Ratledge stepping in, a downgrade that could crater the efficiency that made Gibbs pop. With fewer guaranteed touches and weaker blocking, Coventry believes Gibbs’ ADP bakes in a ceiling he is unlikely to reach.

Jim Coventry told drafters to burn a late flex pick on Marvin Mims, contending the third-year Bronco doesn’t need heavy volume to matter. He highlighted Denver’s plan to manufacture touches through bubble screens while still unleashing Mims on deep posts, giving the speedster two avenues to splash plays. Coventry admitted target share may stay modest, yet he views Mims as the type of bench receiver who can flip a matchup any week he converts a long ball or breaks a screen. In half-PPR or best-ball formats, Coventry sees him as an ideal upside dart in the double-digit rounds.

Jim Coventry advised scooping up Christian Kirk in the Round-10/11 flex tier, noting that the former Jaguar now projects as C.J. Stroud’s primary slot target in Houston. Coventry believes Kirk’s precise route running meshes perfectly with Stroud’s quick-strike accuracy, which should keep the veteran’s 100-target floor intact despite Nico Collins and Tank Dell working outside. Because Kirk will operate in the shallow middle of the field—an area Stroud attacked on 28 % of his rookie attempts—Coventry thinks Kirk could rack up easy PPR volume and provide steady WR3 production with upside for more in shootouts.

Jim Coventry said Jake Ferguson is his favourite fallback at picks 113–128 if drafters still need a tight end. He reminded listeners that Ferguson looked like a future star two seasons ago, then struggled in 2023 only because Dak Prescott missed half the year and Ferguson himself battled injuries. Coventry argued the underlying talent never disappeared, calling the third-year Cowboy “the real deal” who could easily finish as a top-10 fantasy tight end once Prescott is back for a full season. At this double-digit round price, Coventry views Ferguson as a low-risk, high-reward starter rather than a mere backup.

Coventry advised waiting until Rounds 10/11 for David Njoku if you miss earlier tight ends. Njoku was the overall TE1 across Joe Flacco’s final five starts in 2023; should Cleveland stick with Flacco, that chemistry would project Njoku as a weekly starter available well after pick 110.

For drafters ready to grab a tight end, Coventry listed Mark Andrews as the premier option in the 8/9 turn. Even though total targets dipped last year, Andrews remained Lamar Jackson’s favoured red-zone and big-play threat, preserving weekly top-tier upside.

In Rounds 8/9 Coventry targets Baker Mayfield, noting he often slides and still brings a top-15 ceiling thanks to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and an improving offensive line. He downplayed the loss of OC Liam Cohen and called Mayfield "a very solid target" for managers who punt QB.

Coventry likes Chris Godwin at Pick 65, dismissing injury concerns by clarifying the issue is a dislocated ankle—not an ACL—and he’s on track for Week 1. Godwin already flashed strong chemistry with Baker Mayfield in 2024, and Mayfield historically peppers slot receivers (e.g., Jarvis Landry).

D’Andre Swift is Coventry’s other Round 6/7 target. He highlighted Swift’s 253 carries and heavy passing-game involvement in 2024, plus a Chicago depth chart with "really no competition." That combination grants Swift both a high floor and sneaky RB2 ceiling.

Coventry targeted David Montgomery in Round 6, reminding viewers that Monty thrived alongside Gibbs last year and should "get plenty of volume" again. Even if Gibbs’ role grows, Montgomery’s goal-line work and 200-touch projection make him a sturdy RB3/flex.

Coventry said he would “definitely take” DJ Moore if the veteran slides to 4.05. Moore finished as WR6 and WR14 the past two seasons, and Coventry expects Chicago’s improving offense to sustain or elevate that production.

If Garrett Wilson is gone, Coventry pivoted to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, stating the second-year Seahawk “could see up to 160 targets” if everything breaks right. That level of volume would make him a draft-winning pick in the late third.

Coventry likes Garrett Wilson as WR1 in Round 3, projecting 147–168 targets for the third straight year. He told listeners not to fear Justin Fields, noting DJ Moore produced 1,360 yards and eight TDs with Fields in 2023. A similar stat line for Wilson is firmly in play, giving him mid-WR1 upside.

Coventry called Breece Hall a “screaming value” if he slips to the late second or early third. Hall revealed he played through an MCL sprain all season, explaining the drop-off from his explosive rookie form. Coventry dismissed the Jets’ ‘timeshare talk,’ insisting a healthy Hall will reclaim a workhorse role and can finish among the NFL’s top backs.

Jim Coventry framed Josh Jacobs as the "safe play" in Round 2/3 turns. Even in a down 2023, Jacobs averaged 19 carries per game over the second half and regularly posted 20-point PPR outings. Coventry highlighted Jacobs’ durability—only a couple missed games during his Raiders stint—and expects Green Bay to feature him similarly, giving drafters a sturdy RB2 with RB1 weeks.

Coventry said Jonathan Taylor is worth considering at the 2.08 because the final four games of 2024 looked like "Vintage Taylor." He cautioned that recurring injury issues still create downside, so risk-averse managers may pass. Those willing to accept the medical volatility could land a top-five back at a late-second-round price.

For drafters chasing ceiling, Coventry urged taking Christian McCaffrey at 1.05 despite the perceived injury risk. Two of the last three years CMC played every game, and the 2024 absence was a non-football Achilles issue that is fully healed. In each of his four healthy seasons he has finished as the overall RB1 or RB2, a resume no other back can touch. Coventry labeled him the high-risk, high-reward option compared to more ‘stable’ choices like Gibbs or Barkley.

Coventry called Saquon Barkley a "great bet" at 1.05, arguing that worries about last year’s heavy workload are overblown. He pointed to Philadelphia’s dominant offensive line and an upgraded receiving corps that will keep extra defenders out of the box, giving Barkley plenty of efficient touches. The only concern he acknowledged is sheer volume wear-and-tear, but he still prefers Barkley over most options if managers want a safer first-round profile than Christian McCaffrey.

Jim Coventry advised circling back to David Njoku in the double-digit rounds, especially if Joe Flacco wins the Browns’ starting job. Coventry reminded listeners that Njoku was the overall TE1 during the final five weeks of 2023 with Flacco under center. If that QB-TE chemistry carries into 2025, a cheap Njoku offers legitimate top-five positional upside without paying a premium, making him an ideal fallback option for drafters who punted tight end early.

Jim Coventry spotlighted rookie Quinshon Judkins as a sixth-round smash. At 220 lbs with a true three-down skill set, Judkins "should be the lead back on a team that really wants to get back to running the ball." Coventry believes Kevin Stefanski will lean on the ground game after last year’s QB carousel, giving Judkins volume, goal-line carries, and reception upside. The rookie’s profile makes him an ideal mid-round RB3/FLEX who could easily graduate to every-week starter status.

Jim Coventry argued DeVonta Smith remains an undervalued fourth-round pick. Even though "Philly doesn’t throw enough," he noted Smith’s per-game production was "very, very solid" when healthy—despite missing a few contests. The Eagles distribute targets narrowly, so Smith’s weekly workload is safe, and Coventry expects that concentrated usage to offset the overall low pass volume. Result: Smith profiles as a reliable high-end WR2 with spike-week potential in Season-Long leagues.

Jim Coventry said drafters should pivot to Breece Hall if Jacobs is gone because Hall’s 2023 let-down is easily explained: he revealed he played through an MCL injury all year. Coventry reminded listeners that Hall’s rookie-year efficiency before the ACL tear was elite and that he looked explosive again in 2024 before the undisclosed knee issue cropped up. With the injury now behind him and no major backfield competition in New York, Coventry views Hall as a buy-back RB possessing league-winning upside at a depressed ADP.

Jim Coventry advised locking in Josh Jacobs as your second running back at pick 27. He pointed out that Jacobs "saw a ton of work from the second half of the season on last year, basically cashing almost every week for fantasy." Coventry expects Green Bay to operate a run-centric offense, giving Jacobs ample carries, frequent goal-line chances, and a healthy dose of receptions. Those three usage buckets combine for a steady weekly floor and multi-TD upside, making Jacobs an ideal anchor RB2 in 12-team Season-Long builds.

Jim Coventry said Garrett Wilson is a slam-dunk pick at the 2/3 turn because he is "a lock for heavy, heavy target volume" in New York. Coventry expects Wilson to dominate looks regardless of who is under center and believes grabbing an unquestioned target hog this early lets drafters worry less about wide-receiver depth later. The takeaway: Wilson’s projected share keeps his weekly floor high while still giving room for ceiling games, making him a cornerstone in Season-Long formats.

Coventry recommended stashing Marvin Mims at the tail end of drafts, noting the speedy wideout "doesn't get a lot of targets, but does a lot" with the ones he earns on bubble screens and vertical shots. In an offense expected to feature more motion and play-action, Coventry thinks Mims’ efficiency gives him best-ball spike-week upside and makes him a worthwhile lottery ticket in the final rounds.

Jim Coventry tagged Tyjae Spears as a sneaky depth piece because the sophomore will serve as a "very nice compliment" to Tony Pollard and still see enough designed work to matter. Coventry expects the coaching staff to keep Spears involved as a change-of-pace weapon who can collect receptions and spell Pollard on early downs, giving him weekly flex appeal in deeper season-long formats.

Coventry believes Rhamondre Stevenson will open 2025 as New England’s primary early-down back ahead of first-round pick Travian Henderson. The tout views Stevenson’s experience in the Patriots’ zone-heavy scheme as the decisive edge that gives him immediate touch volume and a safe weekly floor for drafters rounding out their RB room in the double-digit rounds.

Jim Coventry said J.K. Dobbins is a late-round swing worth taking because Denver under Sean Payton will lean on its rugged offensive line and a run-heavy approach. Coventry stressed that Payton "loves to run the ball," making Dobbins the kind of stash who could rack up early-down volume and surprise as an RB2 once he’s fully healthy.