Jim Coventry is out on Brian Robinson Jr. at RB30, calling him a grinder without upside. Robinson flashed a 68th-percentile yards-after-contact mark but only 41-percentile broken-tackle rate. Through Week 13 he averaged 13.4 PPR points and 4.6 YPC; from Week 14 on those numbers cratered to 8.6 points and 3.4 YPC as wear and tear set in. Robinson mustered just 20 receptions for 159 yards all season, making him game-script dependent and likely to be pulled on passing downs. Coventry expects Washington to explore an early-down committee, leaving Robinson with a shaky floor and little ceiling at his draft cost.

Jim Coventry slammed the recent ADP surge that pushed Roschon Johnson into the top-50 RBs. Drafters view Johnson as the clear DeAndre Swift handcuff, but Coventry called that wishful thinking. Johnson ranked in the bottom 5th percentile for both broken-tackle rate and yards-after-contact last season and managed only 16 receptions for 104 yards on a 24 percent snap share. Chicago spent draft capital on Kyle Mononguy and could elevate other backs from the practice squad if Swift misses time. Coventry sees Johnson as a career special-teamer, not a three-down savior, making him an avoid even in the late rounds.

Jim Coventry advised passing on Tyrone Tracy at RB33. Tracy looked promising before the Week 11 bye, averaging 5.4 YPC and 16 carries per game from Weeks 5-10. After the bye his efficiency plunged to 3.46 YPC and usage dipped to 12 carries, signaling durability concerns. The Giants then spent early Day 3 capital on Cam Scataboo, a back who can catch as well, threatening Tracy’s third-down appeal. Coventry doubts Tracy sees meaningful goal-line or early-down work and says he would need heavy reception volume to justify his ADP—a path that no longer looks realistic.

Jim Coventry urged caution on Chuba Hubbard at his RB18-20 sticker price. While Hubbard racked up 1,195 rushing yards and 43 catches last year, those receptions produced a paltry four yards apiece, hinting at inefficiency that could boot him from passing downs. Coventry highlighted that Hubbard’s yards-per-carry ballooned from 3.8 as a rookie to 4.8—exactly the kind of one-off spike that often regresses. Carolina reinforced its backfield, paying Rico Dowdle $3.5 million and drafting Trevor Etienne, suggesting a potential 60-40 committee. If Hubbard loses target volume, the path to paying off a top-20 tag evaporates, making him a fade for Coventry.

Jim Coventry labeled Joe Mixon a trap at RB19. Mixon’s trademark compiler volume may vanish with Nick Chubb now in Houston. Coventry emphasized Mixon’s alarming 19th-percentile broken-tackle rate and 22nd-percentile yards-after-contact in 2024—both career lows—and reminded listeners Mixon turns 29 this season. Chubb, recovering from early-season injuries, received a respectable contract and, if 80 percent of his old self, would "easily overtake" Mixon for lead duties in Coventry’s view. Paying a top-20 RB price for a back whose efficiency is cratering and whose workload is suddenly fragile is a bet Coventry will not make.

Jim Coventry advised fading Kenneth Walker around pick 60, noting the market keeps inventing narratives that never come true. Walker’s yards-per-carry has declined three straight seasons, and only five of his 153 attempts went for 20+ yards in 2024 despite an elite 98th-percentile broken-tackle rate. Coventry pointed out the disconnect between Walker’s tackle-breaking ability and his 38th-percentile yards-after-contact, calling him a boom-bust back without the boom. While Walker did post a career-high 46 receptions, Zach Charbonnet looked more effective late last year and could siphon even more snaps. Given Walker has never outperformed his draft slot, Coventry refuses to buy the 2025 "this is the year" story.

Jim Coventry warned drafters to steer clear of James Cook at his current RB14 price tag. Coventry stressed that Cook’s 18-touchdown eruption last season was a massive outlier compared to just seven scores in his previous 33 games. Despite only 40 fewer touches, Cook’s scrimmage yards still fell by 300 year-over-year, and his broken-tackle rate sat in the mediocre 56th percentile. More troubling, after Week 10 he logged only 36-46 percent of Buffalo’s snaps while Ray Davis and Ty Johnson siphoned work, signaling a committee approach designed to keep him fresh. With regression looming in the touchdown column and a timeshare already forming, Coventry sees no value in paying a top-15 RB premium.

Jim Coventry called C.J. Stroud the best second-QB value on the board with an ADP of QB20. Stroud’s sophomore slump (3,727 passing yards, 20 TDs) followed a brilliant rookie year, but Coventry blamed league-wide defensive adjustments and unimaginative coaching; he expects Stroud to counter-punch in Year 3. Houston upgraded weapons by pairing Nico Collins with trade acquisition Christian Kirk and drafting Jaden Higgins (outside) and Jalen Knoll (slot). Joe Mixon is a reliable but unspectacular back, and Nick Chubb’s status is murky, so the offense should funnel through Stroud’s arm. Coventry added a sneaky rushing wrinkle: Stroud logged 42 rushing yards in each of two playoff games last year, hinting at untapped mobility that could juice fantasy totals. All told, Coventry sees an easy path to mid-QB1 numbers at a rock-bottom cost.

Jim Coventry likes Brock Purdy even as his ADP climbs from QB14 in May to QB10 today, asserting last season’s dip (31 TDs down to 20, INTs up) was almost entirely injury-driven. Christian McCaffrey missed most of the year, Brandon Aiyuk tore an ACL, and All-Pro LT Trent Williams was sidelined, sabotaging efficiency. For 2025 McCaffrey is healthy, Aiyuk should return during the season, George Kittle could see >90 targets, and Jauan Jennings plus first-rounder Ricky Piersall give Shanahan more bullets to offset Deebo Samuel’s departure. Coventry also noted the Niners keep losing defensive infrastructure, meaning fewer low-volume, clock-killing scripts and more games where Purdy must sling it. He views Purdy as a safe QB1 with upside beyond his current price.

Jim Coventry highlighted Dak Prescott’s ADP rise to QB13 after Dallas traded for George Pickens and argued managers should still reach a couple spots earlier. In three of Prescott’s last five healthy seasons he finished as QB2, QB3 and QB7, so the ceiling is proven. Coventry expects a pass-heavy 2025 offense because the backfield (Javonte Williams, Jadon Blue, Miles Sanders, Phil Amafa) lacks a true workhorse, meaning sustained drives will rely on Prescott throwing to CeeDee Lamb, Pickens and Jake Ferguson. The Cowboys’ defense remains solid but no longer suffocating, ensuring enough shootouts to keep volume intact. Coventry called QB8 a worst-case outcome with realistic potential to rejoin the elite tier.

Jim Coventry endorsed Justin Fields as a cheat-code pick just inside the top-11 QBs because the Jets plan to lean into his legs. He reminded listeners that Fields ripped off 1,143 rushing yards and 8 scores in only 15 games with Chicago in 2022, then paced for 860 yards in an injury-shortened 2023. New York’s staff has publicly committed to "playing to Fields’ strengths," which Coventry interprets as designed runs and rollouts rather than high-volume pocket passing. When Fields does throw, he now has Garrett Wilson, whom Coventry equated to DJ Moore’s 1,360-yard Chicago season, plus rookie receiving-tight-end Mason Taylor. The rushing base paired with competent weapons gives Fields legitimate top-five fantasy upside at a discount ADP.

Jim Coventry said Joe Burrow is being drafted as QB5 yet still has room to blast past that price because circumstances scream for 5,000-plus passing yards. Burrow already flashed a 4,911-yard, 43-TD ceiling last season, clearing 300 yards in seven different games and topping 392 yards three times. Coventry expects the 2025 Bengals’ defense to be "probably terrible," forcing weekly track meets that funnel volume to the air. Cincinnati just paid Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins, added Mike Gesicki, and owns only an "okay" ground game with Chase Brown, so the path of least resistance remains Burrow’s right arm. Coventry projected 40-plus TDs, a real shot at 5K yards, and a bonus couple hundred rushing yards, framing Burrow as a league-winner at current ADP.

Jim Coventry labeled Tua Tagovailoa a fade because both on-field limitations and durability make the upside not worth the risk. Coventry stressed that defenses now crowd the middle and short areas, exploiting Tagovailoa’s weak downfield arm and inability to consistently stick throws to the perimeter. The result has been a handful of spike weeks but many middling outings once defenses clog passing lanes. More concerning, Coventry said, is the extensive medical chart: multiple concussions, a significant college hip injury, and another hip issue last year. With Tagovailoa always “one hit away” from a lengthy absence, Coventry believes drafters should not expose their rosters to that downside when the ceiling is already muted by schematic counters.

Jim Coventry cautioned that Justin Herbert’s environment is trending away from fantasy fireworks. Under Greg Roman in 2024, Herbert already saw his pass attempts drop by 10 per game relative to 2023, finishing with a modest 23 TDs (fewer than 1.5 per contest). Managers remember his final eight-game average of 21.5 fantasy points, but Coventry explained that stretch coincided with J.K. Dobbins’ injury and ineffective Gus Edwards, forcing unexpected pass volume. The Chargers attacked that weakness this offseason, drafting Amarian Hampton in Round 1 and signing Najee Harris for $9.35 million, signaling a commitment to pounding the rock. Coventry expects Herbert’s attempts to fall even further in 2025, capping both touchdown upside and weekly ceiling. Given the likely run-heavy script, Coventry is out on Herbert at his current price.

Jim Coventry noted that Jordan Love’s perceived breakout masks a second-half schematic shift. Before Green Bay’s Week 10 bye, Love averaged 34.3 pass attempts. After the bye, Matt LaFleur pivoted to a run-centric approach featuring Josh Jacobs, cutting Love’s volume to 24 attempts per game. Love is not a high-end runner—he topped out in the 240-yard range two seasons ago—so reduced drop-backs translate directly into mediocre fantasy ceilings. Coventry believes LaFleur views Love as more of a game manager and sees nothing on the roster that will drive volume back up. At a QB18 ADP, Coventry still thinks managers are paying for last season’s hot stretch and advised avoiding Love unless the Packers revert to shootouts, which he sees as unlikely.

Jim Coventry argued that Jared Goff is a trap pick despite last year’s late-season surge (28.6 fantasy PPG over his final seven). Coventry pointed out that the Lions’ defensive collapse—18 defenders lost to injury—forced shootouts. When the unit was healthy in Weeks 1-9, Detroit planned to win with defense and a run game, and Goff averaged just 19.7 fantasy points with four sub-17-point clunkers. Coventry expects much closer to that version in 2025: the young corners now have experience, Aidan Hutchinson is healthy, and the safety room is deep. Offensively, Detroit will pound Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery behind a mauling line, but Goff loses OC Ben Johnson and must operate behind an entirely new interior OL—an issue for a quarterback who struggles versus inside pressure. Coventry therefore recommends steering clear of Goff at his current draft price.

Jim Coventry warned drafters to fade Bo Nix at his QB8 ADP. Coventry reminded listeners that Nix finished 2024 hot only because Denver had no running game and had to lean on him—he logged 430 rushing yards, four rushing TDs and three 25-plus point fantasy outings in his final seven games. This offseason, however, Sean Payton overhauled the roster to play defense and run the ball: the Broncos imported Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw in free agency, spent a first-rounder on CB Jaday Baron, drafted RB RJ Harvey in Round 2 and signed J.K. Dobbins. Behind an already elite offensive line, Coventry expects Denver to be “super run heavy,” meaning far fewer pass attempts and designed runs for Nix. With game scripts likely favoring a lead-protecting approach, Coventry sees limited weekly upside and advised passing on Nix in season-long drafts.

Jim Coventry urged drafters to burn their final roster spot on Kayshon Boutte. After finally earning full-time snaps in Week 6 last season, Boutte endured drops but still averaged 5-7 targets. Nobody noticed the late-season surge when New England fell off the radar, yet Boutte quietly posted two 100-yard, 20-point fantasy outings over the final three weeks, flashing real chemistry with rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Third-round pick Kyle Williams offers mild competition, and Coventry believes Boutte has a legitimate shot to emerge as the Patriots’ No. 1 option at essentially zero draft cost.

Jim Coventry forecasted Keon Coleman to smash his WR54 price tag. Weeks 4-8 of last season showed the template: 3 catches, 64 yards, and 0.4 TDs on 5 targets per contest before a chipped wrist bone derailed him. With only Khalil Shakir entrenched in the slot, Buffalo simply lacks perimeter threats and needs Coleman’s size and red-zone prowess. Coventry expects Josh Allen to pepper him with looks, especially inside the 20, paving the way for a healthy season that lands Coleman comfortably inside the top 40 receivers.

Jim Coventry highlighted Cedric Tillman as his favorite WR65 flier. After Amari Cooper was traded, Tillman stepped in as a starter in Week 7 and immediately averaged 7 receptions, 85 yards, and a score over three games before a bye week and a season-ending concussion halted the breakout. He is now the clear perimeter complement to Jerry Jeudy while Diontae Johnson shifts inside, and Coventry emphasized Tillman’s ability to win downfield and break tackles. Even if the Browns’ quarterback play remains mediocre, sheer route volume and physical talent could drive a top-30 finish, making him one of the cheapest ceiling bets in drafts.

Jim Coventry said Rome Odunze is a screaming buy at his current WR30 ADP because the environment around him has completely flipped. Odunze flashed as a rookie—54-734-0 on scraps behind Keenan Allen and DJ Moore—yet still posted a 64th-percentile YAC rate despite primarily deep targets, logged two 100-yard games, and saw his targets climb to 6.5 per game after Week 7. With Allen gone, Ben Johnson installing his spacing-heavy scheme, a fully rebuilt offensive line, and Caleb Williams expected to drop back 35-plus times while a shaky Bears defense forces shootouts, Coventry expects Odunze to command true WR1 volume. He projected a jump into the top 24 wideouts and urged drafters to pounce before the market corrects.

Jim Coventry predicted Keaton Mitchell, currently drafted outside the top-70 RBs, will climb to RB50 by season’s end. Mitchell averaged 8.4 yards per carry on 8-10 touches a week in 2023 and added 9 catches for 93 yards, flashing breakaway speed that makes highlight plays out of nowhere. Fully healthy, he should push Justice Hill to the bench and serve as a lightning-quick change-of-pace behind Derrick Henry. Coventry expects 5-10 weekly touches to be enough for flex production thanks to Mitchell’s explosive profile, while noting a massive ceiling if Henry misses time. He urged drafters to grab the late-round flyer for inexpensive upside.

Jim Coventry’s bold call is Nick Chubb ending the year as RB30 in his first season with Houston. Coventry acknowledged Joe Mixon enters camp as the nominal starter, yet insists coaches will recognize Chubb’s superior talent once they see him fully recovered from the gruesome 2023 knee injury. The 28-year-old has limited career mileage and just signed a deal with meaningful guarantees, signaling a real role. Coventry anticipates a 60-65 % carry share for Chubb, with Mixon mopping up the remainder and most passing-down snaps. That workload, paired with Chubb’s career 5.3 YPC and red-zone efficiency, should easily clear current draft expectations while still reflecting a timeshare-capped ceiling.

Jim Coventry projected Isiah Pacheco to finish as RB22 while he’s being drafted around RB29. Coventry blamed last year’s depressed ADP on a broken leg that sapped Pacheco’s explosion and led to just 3.7 YPC overall (3.4 post-injury). Fully healthy, the Chiefs plan to feature him on first and second downs and in the red zone where defenses refuse to stack boxes against Patrick Mahomes. Pacheco already proved he can handle passing-down work with 49 targets in 2023 and 15.4 PPR points per game. Even if Rashee Rice or bershard smith siphons some receiving snaps, Coventry likes the discounted path to 15-18 touches and TD upside every week.

Jim Coventry forecasted James Conner to finish around RB15, noting managers should plan for the usual two-to-four missed games but ride RB1 production when he suits up. Conner just logged 1,094 yards, eight TDs and 47 receptions while grading in the 85th percentile for broken-tackle rate and delivering back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at 4.6 and 5.0 YPC. Arizona extended him last year and still views him as the offense’s heart and soul even after adding Trey Benson. Conner closed 2024 with three 22-plus PPR games in Weeks 14-16 and saw 3-5 targets in each of his last 12 contests. Coventry called him the Cardinals’ engine and a perennial cheat code at his discounted price.

Jim Coventry predicted Josh Jacobs will finish as RB6 despite an ADP around RB10. After a slow start last year, Jacobs ripped off 1,671 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs, averaging 20.6 PPR points per game from Week 8 forward while his rushes climbed from 17 to 19 per contest. Coventry believes Matt LaFleur will again ask Jordan Love to manage games and let Jacobs, operating behind a strong offensive line, serve as the offensive engine. Even with only a 62 % snap share in 2024, Jacobs posted eight 20-point outings after Week 6. Coventry expects similar post-bye usage and touchdown volume, calling him a steal at current draft cost.

Jim Coventry said Christian McCaffrey should be drafted no later than RB3 because he expects him to finish as the overall RB1 again. Coventry cited that in all four seasons McCaffrey has stayed healthy he has finished as RB1 or RB2, an unmatched resume. Despite turning 29 he averages only 168 carries per year, leaving plenty of tread. Kyle Shanahan has already told reporters McCaffrey will be featured heavily as both runner and receiver, especially in the red-zone. Coventry added that the 49ers defense keeps losing pieces, which should force more pedal-to-the-metal game scripts and expand McCaffrey’s weekly touchdown chances and 100-yard scrimmage games. He views the workload, age profile, and offensive fit as a perfect recipe to lead the position in 2025 scoring.