Jim Malaro said he would "kick his own teeth in" if he lets Luana Pinheiro’s cardio implosion go unpunished and does not cash Tecia Pennington inside-the-distance at +600. Malaro hammered the point that Pinheiro routinely fades after five minutes and has even looked for a way out without absorbing real damage. In his eyes, this is likely Pinheiro’s roster-saving fight, so she will empty the tank early, then become target practice for Pennington’s pace and durability. Because the moneyline has tightened and the generic 'fight doesn’t go the distance' prop is nearly three dollars shorter, Malaro believes the Pennington finish number is the sharpest way to monetize the expected quit. He envisions a Round-2 or Round-3 TKO, with a club-and-sub also live once Pinheiro mentally checks out.

Jim Malaro labeled Jared Gordon the week’s ultimate “parlay buster.” With the market pushing Gordon out to –155 and eager bettors trying to knock that price down by stapling him to huge favorites like Michael Morales, Malaro thinks the public is walking into a trap. He reminded listeners that Gordon’s recent success comes against 40-year-old Mark O. Madsen and cut-list Leonardo Santos, while his striking-heavy losses to Nasrat Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett exposed defensive holes Thiago Moises can exploit. Because parlay shoppers care only about shaving juice, Malaro expects Gordon to be over-represented on tickets—and to blow them up when Moises chews up Gordon’s lead leg, lands the cleaner boxing and threatens back-takes on any desperation shots. His advice: leave Gordon out of parlays entirely and consider a small Moises moneyline stab instead.

Jim Malaro dismissed talk of “value” on 38-year-old Gilbert Burns, calling it a mirage and urging bettors to lay the wood on Michael Morales or target a Morales finish line. Malaro cited Burns’s 1-4 skid in meaningful bouts—losses to Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena and Bilal Muhammad, plus a lethargic decision against Stephen Thompson—as evidence the former title challenger is now a worn-down gatekeeper. Burns has dealt with nagging injuries, launched a podcast, invested in outside business ventures and even admitted at this week’s presser that he merely wants to “show a good fight,” a mindset Malaro views as a massive red flag. By contrast Morales is 17-0, just 26 years old, trains at Entram Gym alongside Brandon Moreno and Alexa Grasso, and has improved each appearance—out-clinching Max Griffin, stuffing Jake Matthews’s shots and detonating Jake Fugit in under a round. Morales sports elite takedown defense (85% in the UFC to date) and superior cardio, so Malaro projects the younger man to drag a slowing Burns into deep water and either club-and-sub or TKO him in rounds 3-5. He is betting Morales moneyline as a parlay anchor and sprinkling Morales Round 3/4/5 finish props, convinced the “sub live” narrative for Burns is pure nostalgia.

Jim Malaro advised fading Paul Craig one more time, arguing the Scotsman’s late-career move to 205 spells disaster against Rodolfo Bellato. Craig is 0-4 in his last four stand-up heavy fights and was even out-struck by wrestling-first Bo Nickal. Malaro highlighted that Brendan Allen, Kyle Borralho and Johnny Walker all hurt Craig early simply by refusing to tangle on the mat, and he expects Bellato to copy that blueprint. Bellato is hardly elite but carries real power, a 74-inch reach and throws 5.9 significant strikes per minute—numbers Malaro says will snowball once Craig inevitably gases after the first failed guard pull. He also reminded listeners that Craig already exceeded the age he once set as his retirement cutoff, suggesting motivation is purely financial. The pick is Bellato by KO/TKO at anything +120 or better, with a hedge on Bellato Round-2 prop (+475) to capture the expected cardio collapse.

Jim Malaro flipped his stance after Media-Day bombshells and now leans toward Mairon Santos. Sodiq Yusuff admitted he spent the last 18 months “putting my body back together,” disclosing two bulging discs in his back, another in his neck and ongoing stem-cell treatments he chose over surgery. Yusuff also said he accepted this bout at 155 because he cannot make featherweight until he is healthy again and has no plans to stay at lightweight. Malaro called chronic back and neck issues “red-alert injuries” for a fighter whose game relies on explosive level changes and clinch strength. Add in the fact Yusuff is coming off a violent KO loss to Diego Lopes and has to absorb Santos’s long-range boxing at a weight he has never competed in, and Jim views the Nigerian as a compromised favorite. He has not fired yet but plans to bet Santos moneyline if the number holds north of +115 and will sprinkle Santos by KO at +350, believing a compromised Yusuff cannot survive sustained body work and straight rights.

Jim Malaro echoed Lang’s stance but added his own nuance: Moises only struggles when the opponent carries one-shot dynamite—examples being Joel Alvarez or Ludovit Klein. Jared Gordon lacks that fight-ending power, making this a stylistic lay-up for Moises, who, according to Malaro, now splits time at the data-driven "Fighting Nerds" camp. He likes Moises’ snappy jab-low-kick combinations and sees a clear path to either club-and-sub or top-control decision once the bout hits the mat. Malaro will let the line keep steaming toward Gordon, then fire on Moises and consider the submission prop if he confirms that the "Fighting Nerds" corner will be present on fight night.

Jim Malaro has flipped his stance and now likes Denise Gomes inside the distance. Reed has been stopped in five of six defeats – choked by Lupita Godinez, clubbed by Sam Hughes, and generally folds whenever an opponent can grapple. Malaro praised Gomes’ clinch elbows, dirty boxing and willingness to mix in takedowns, predicting Reed will be bullied to the fence, cut open, and either ground-and-pounded or submitted. With Gomes needing a statement after the Angela Hill loss, Malaro thinks the finish prop is the smartest way to attack this matchup.

Jim Malaro wants nothing to do with a side in Smotherman-City but loves the violence prop. He cited City’s questionable chin—flattened by Ramon Taveras in their first Contender Series meeting and badly swollen after the rematch—as well as Smotherman’s defensive lapses that got him iced on Contender Series. Because City’s most likely victory is a flash knockout while Smotherman’s path is sustained aggression and volume that can lead to late finishes, Malaro believes ‘Not to Go the Distance’ captures both fighters’ most probable win conditions and avoids guessing which inconsistent prospect shows up.

Jim Malaro wants to fade Gaston Bolanos and will pick Qiuang Li. Bolanos is still basically a pure kickboxer who has been taken down repeatedly and makes poor defensive decisions once grounded. Malaro thinks that deficiency eventually bites him against an opponent that can mix in full MMA and sees Li as that fighter—even if Li’s overall level of competition is low. While he will not bet the bout himself, Malaro’s advice for pick-em pools is to side with Li because Bolanos has likely already hit his ceiling.

Jim Malaro advised abandoning the money-line debate and attacking the total, taking Under 2.5 rounds or Fight-Doesn’t-Go-Distance at plus money. He argued that Rodriguez’s takedown-defense issues (Lysindo dragged her down with a basic body-lock) spell disaster if Robertson gets top position because the Canadian hunts mount, drops elbows, and chases armbars rather than simply riding. Conversely, if Robertson can’t ground the fight, Rodriguez owns a massive striking edge and, per Malaro, is "absolutely live for the KO." With both finishing paths live and no appetite for picking a side, he called the Under the smartest wager on the bout.

Jim Malaro backed Jillian Robertson to out-grapple Marina Rodriguez. He highlighted Robertson’s transformation after committing fully to her wrestling: she leads all women’s divisions in UFC submission wins and has embraced a bully style since dropping to strawweight. Marina is 38—an age Malaro equated to roughly 41 in the men’s divisions—and although not yet washed, that is late for a weight class built on speed and scrambles. Malaro thinks Robertson’s takedown entries and top control, which flummoxed Piera Rodriguez and others, will again dictate the fight. He is looking at Robertson moneyline and will sprinkle the submission prop if the price is +300 or better.

Jim Malaro technically picked Thomas Peterson to beat Dontale Mayes but stressed this is a stay-away fight. He called Mayes a "perennial fade" whose balance is so bad that "a strong gust of wind" can topple him, adding that once Mayes is on his back he has no idea how to recover. Peterson is younger and should be able to simply fall on top of Mayes if Mayes whiffs a kick, but Malaro admitted Peterson showed a shaky chin in the recent KO loss to Shamil Gaziev and carries limited upside. With no confidence in either man’s cardio, durability, or fight IQ, Malaro advised passing on both the moneyline and the totals.

Jim Malaro agreed that Ivana Petrovich is the side and pushed the angle even harder, forecasting a quick submission. He said Miller has "fallen off an absolute cliff," noting she was finished on the feet by Luana Santos after gassing almost immediately and has shown no improvement since The Ultimate Fighter. Malaro emphasized Petrovich’s strength edge, heavier hands, and willingness to grapple. He believes Miller’s lack of defensive jiu-jitsu combined with Petrovich’s squeeze makes an early club-and-sub or topside choke live, recommending Petrovich ITD with a special look at the submission prop.

Jim Malaro advised targeting the Cory Sandhagen by-decision prop rather than chasing inside-the-distance. Malaro expects Sandhagen’s five-inch reach and height edges to be immediately obvious against Deiveson Figueiredo, a former flyweight who still looks undersized at 135. Sandhagen routinely "plays the game" by opening rounds with eye-catching combos and stealing the last 15 seconds with a takedown, tactics Malaro says judges love. He highlighted Sandhagen dominating Rob Font on the mat with one injured arm as proof the Coloradan’s grappling is underrated. Figueiredo’s lone path is wrestling, but Malaro doubts the 36-year-old can chain takedowns for more than two rounds without gassing, especially while walking through Sandhagen’s jab, knees and angles. Citing Sandhagen’s history of styling on shorter opponents like Frankie Edgar and the likelihood that Fig slows late, Malaro projects a clean 49-46 type scorecard and recommends betting Sandhagen by decision at any plus number while still feeling comfortable anchoring parlays with the moneyline.

Jim Malaro called Bo Nickal a must-play favorite because Reinier de Ridder simply cannot force the one path where he is dangerous. De Ridder’s two UFC wins came over an aging Gerald Meerschaert—who was actually winning until his gas tank emptied—and a carefree Kevin Holland, so Malaro views the 19-2 record as smoke and mirrors. He noted De Ridder’s takedown entries are painfully slow and telegraphed, the exact opposite of what you need against a three-time NCAA champ with world-class hips. Nickal already owns solid submission grappling chops, giving Malaro confidence he can stay safe on the mat while enjoying a massive athletic edge in every scramble. Once the Dutchman gasses after an inevitable failed shot or clinch exchange, Malaro sees Nickal pounding him out or grabbing the neck. Recommended plays are Nickal moneyline in parlays and Nickal Inside-the-Distance or by TKO/Sub if plus money appears.

Jim Malaro urged listeners to fire on Santiago Ponzinibbio, arguing the Argentine looked like a completely different athlete against Carlston Harris—better cardio, better chin and nonstop forward pressure—after what he jokingly called a trip to a “damn good doctor” for some performance assistance. Both fighters are 38, but Malaro believes Ponzi’s new-found gas tank and aggression make him fight five years younger, whereas Daniel Rodriguez looks like a shell: gassed against Kelvin Gastelum, flat-lined by Ian Garry and choked by Neil Magny in his last three. Rodriguez’s lone common-opponent win over Alex Morono came when Morono accepted on two days’ notice. With Ponzinibbio marching forward throwing combinations and Rodriguez fading after a round, Malaro is betting Ponzi moneyline and sprinkling the Round-3 or KO prop, expecting the amped-up version to overwhelm a disinterested D-Rod late.

Jim Malaro sided with Daniel Marcos as a surprisingly large underdog, arguing the 17-0 Peruvian has faced the more meaningful UFC sample than the oft-inactive Montel Jackson. Marcos owns wins over Simon Oliveira and John Castaneda and went to a razor-close split with Davey Grant—competition Malaro rates higher than Jackson’s recent victims (JP Buys, Rani Yahya, Jesse Strader). He cautioned that Jackson’s 18-second knockout of Dawon Blackshear ‘tells us nothing’ and that Jackson fights only once per year, limiting confidence in his current form. Because both bantamweights are notoriously durable, Malaro’s preferred stack is Marcos moneyline plus the fight ‘Goes the Distance’, expecting a tight three-round scrap where Marcos’ pressure and volume edge out the cards.

Jim Malaro urged listeners to fire on Jeremy Stephens by knockout at the huge underdog price. Malaro thinks Mason Jones being lined around –500 is ‘absolutely insane’ because Jones’ two UFC losses exposed shaky striking defense and he was repeatedly tagged on Cage Warriors by Michael Pagani. Meanwhile Stephens has spent the last two years in bare-knuckle boxing—Malaro joked they are ‘handing out the good vitamins’ there—so he expects a sharper, more aggressive version of Lil’ Heathen returning on this one-fight UFC deal. If Jones can’t get easy takedowns and hold them, Malaro sees Stephens’ one-shot power turning the fight, noting the veteran ‘only needs one swing to put your lights out’. Because Stephens has virtually no submission or decision equity, Malaro recommends skipping the moneyline and playing Stephens by KO for the best odds.

Jim Malaro refused to lay chalk on 2025-era Miesha Tate, calling her last outing a retirement win over a checked-out Julia Avila and asserting the sport has passed Tate by. Santos, training full-time with husband Thiago Santos and allegedly on “special vitamins,” only needs a few initial sprawls to expose Tate’s faded wrestling. Because Santos throws the heavier strikes and Tate’s veneer-installing lifestyle raises focus concerns, Malaro will either grab the pre-fight underdog price or hit Santos live the moment a couple of takedowns are stuffed.

Jim Malaro also targeted Ryan Loder as a value dog, predicting that Loder will chain takedowns until Bekoev breaks. Malaro compared Loder’s game to Grant Dawson’s—winning first, aesthetics later—and highlighted his Ultimate Fighter semifinal where Loder shot on the opening bell and finished Ballantyne. He questioned Bekoev’s gas tank, saying Foxworth only wilted because he was completely exhausted, and emphasized that Bekoev’s best wins came by decision over regional middling talent. At the current plus-money price Malaro is betting Loder outright and likes the submission/ground-and-pound TKO props for a smaller sprinkle.

Malaro recommended tacking the Schnell-Flick fight-does-not-go-the-distance (-380) onto parlays, saying "someone is getting finished—period." He noted that eight of Matt Schnell’s last nine fights have ended inside the distance, often in wild momentum swings where Schnell looks sharp until his suspect chin gives out. While Jimmy Flick rarely hurts foes standing, his grappling aggression (3.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes) means both fighters willingly expose themselves to finishes. Given Schnell’s 41 percent striking defense and Flick’s 50 percent takedown accuracy, Malaro projects frantic scrambles and high-variance pocket exchanges that should not see Round 3. He believes the under 2.5 or ITD prop offers more value than choosing sides in a matchup of fragile flyweights.

Jim Malaro said the only playable angle in the Chandler-Edwards opener is the over 2.5 / fight-goes-the-distance prop. He argued that neither woman offers any credible finishing danger: Chandler is a "big, lumbering cage-grappler" with almost no striking and historically low submission success, while Edwards is chronically low-volume and has one finish in her seven-fight UFC run. Both fighters have shown solid cardio and durability—Chandler went 15 minutes with Norma Dumont and Yana Santos, Edwards absorbed 147 significant strikes in her last two decisions—and Malaro added that both have missed weight before, which further slows pace once the fight starts. With nine "question marks" around motivation and skill but clear evidence that neither can end a fight, he advised parlaying the distance prop at juiced odds rather than laying Edwards’ ballooning money-line price.

Malaro said the only thing worth touching in Gutierrez-Castaneda is the fight-goes-the-distance/over 2.5 rounds, calling it a "15-minute sparring session." He reminded listeners that every one of Chris Gutierrez’s last four bouts—against Daniel Marcos, Kang Kyung-ho and Said Nurmagomedov replacement Alateng Gafurov—hit the cards because Gutierrez lands a low-risk leg kick, waits 15–20 seconds, then resets range. Castaneda typically responds with half-committed clinch entries rather than power exchanges, further killing finish equity. With neither man averaging even one knockdown per 15 minutes and Gutierrez owning a 92 percent takedown-defense rate, Malaro expects another slow, cage-cutting kickboxing match that reaches the scorecards well over 70 percent of the time. At –190, he is comfortable using the distance prop as a parlay anchor instead of guessing which volume-averse bantamweight edges the split.

Jim Malaro advised taking a small plus-money flyer on Alatengheili rather than laying chalk with Da'Mon Blackshear. Malaro pointed out that Blackshear is making a second weight-cut in roughly 30 days after a lackluster showing against Cody Gibson— a fight he was losing on the feet until a scramble got him top position. He noted Blackshear’s history of "mental gaps" when he is forced to fight off the back foot and added that the North Carolinian’s low striking output (2.6 significant strikes landed per minute) can cost him rounds if takedowns are not there. Alatengheili, by contrast, brings quicker hands, constant lateral movement, and a jab-leg-kick combo that should let him double Blackshear’s striking volume if he sprawls and brawls. With Blackshear slower but only marginally stronger, Malaro expects the Chinese veteran to win a 29-28 type decision if he keeps the bout standing, making the underdog money line—and even Alatengheili by decision at +300—his preferred betting angle.

Jim Malaro recommended the fight-goes-the-distance prop, projecting a 15-minute striking duel where neither man finds the finishing touch. He noted that Onama’s two UFC losses came by decision once opponents managed range—exactly what Giga Chikadze excels at with his body kicks and lateral footwork. Meanwhile Chikadze has gone the cards in three of his last four, surviving heavier hitters like Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen. Malaro expects Onama to land early but lose steam after eating repeated liver kicks, allowing Giga to bank rounds two and three en route to a split-type nod. With both fighters sporting sub-1.00 knockdown averages and Giga defending 60 % of strikes, he priced the distance at 65 % implied and likes anything better than –140.

Jim Malaro recommended the fight-goes-the-distance prop for Cuamba–Romero, noting that every time Cuamba has faced Contender-Series or UFC-level talent the bout has hit the cards. Romero went three hard rounds with power striker David Onama in his debut, demonstrating the "Mexican chin" stereotype Malaro trusts. Cuamba has yet to show finishing ability in four fights since signing, and Romero has never been stopped in 27 pro rounds. With neither man possessing a clear skill edge—Cuamba is fighting to keep his roster spot while Romero is a loose underdog—Malaro said bettors should ignore the money line volatility and simply bet the distance at plus money or use it as a parlay stabilizer.

Jim Malaro advised backing Jacqueline Amorim inside the distance—and even targeting specific submission props such as arm-bar or rear-naked choke at long odds—because he believes she is the clearly motivated, career-focused athlete in this matchup. Malaro dismissed Viana (13-7) as more influencer than fighter, pointing to her OnlyFans launches and cosmetic posts as evidence she is "not serious about her career." Amorim, in contrast, has finished five of six wins by submission, showed she could out-grapple Vanessa Demopoulos before a glove-grab reversal, and tapped out Cory McKenna in 2:28 with a straight-arm lock. Malaro expects Amorim’s top-side jiu-jitsu to overwhelm Viana, who has been submitted three times and owns just a 50 percent takedown defense rate. If Amorim’s early blitz fails, he still sees her controlling on the mat en route to a late finish. He cautioned that books have already adjusted the under 2.5 to heavy juice after recent women’s unders hit, making the submission prop the sharper angle.

Jim Malaro urged bettors to grab the plus money on Carlos Prates by knockout, predicting the Fighting Nerds standout will flatten Ian Garry inside two rounds. Malaro conceded Garry is technically sound but reminded listeners he has been rocked by Song Kenan, Gabe Green and training-partner Shavkat Rakhmonov, and even required a split decision over Jeff Neal. Prates brings a different level of one-shot power—four straight Performance-of-the-Night bonuses and an 88 percent KO rate—and trains at a camp that just shocked the world with Jean Silva’s domination of Bryce Mitchell. According to Caio Borralho, the team hired an outside footwork analyst who has already identified every defensive pattern in Garry’s game. If Prates’ quietly improving ground game cancels Garry’s modest wrestling edge, this becomes a pure kickboxing match where the Brazilian’s power is decisive. Malaro is betting Prates money-line (+130) and KO/TKO (+225), while planning to hedge live on Garry if the bout reaches Round 3 because Garry’s five-round cardio is proven and Prates has never seen championship minutes.

Jim Malaro called the current Michel Pereira price a steal, saying bettors should ride the Brazilian or even sprinkle KO. Malaro thinks the market love for Abus Magomedov is based on a single demolition of Dustin Stoltzfus and ignores everything since: Abus was gassed and finished by Sean Strickland, looked awful in a split with Warlley Alves, and needed repeated lay-and-pray moments to survive Bruno Ferreira—who still rocked him twice. Malaro stressed that Abus’ wrestling only works from the open mat and falls apart when he has to chain attempts or clinch-grind; Pereira’s 79-inch reach, explosive hips, and improved cardio make that style impossible. He pointed to Pereira stuffing the first eight shots of Anthony Hernandez, a far better wrestler, and noted the Kansas City altitude has historically wrecked limited-gas fighters like Abus. With Pereira landing 5.0 sig-strikes per minute and scoring 0.84 knockdowns per 15, Malaro projects Abus to fade after four frantic minutes and either eat a flying knee or get pounded out late. He is comfortable betting Pereira money-line to –150, plus the KO/TKO prop at +220.

Jim Malaro projected that Randy Brown will cash as a sizeable favorite and, for once, do it violently. Dalby is 40, coming off an injury that left him unable to "support his own weight," and admitted in Danish media that he welcomed the fight’s postponement because of personal issues. Brown owns eight inches of reach, lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute, and mixes a stabbing front kick with a stiff jab that should keep Dalby at range. Dalby’s game—eating shots to force dirty boxing and late takedowns—relies on durability that Malaro believes finally cracks here. He highlighted Dalby absorbing 144 sig-strikes in his last two wins and noted his 38 % striking defense is the worst in the welterweight top-30. Brown, stung by a split-decision loss to Brian Battle, has publicly vowed to avoid judges and already records 0.83 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Malaro recommended Brown KO/TKO (+175) or Brown Rounds 1-2 prop, adding that the money-line is still parlay-able if bettors want a safer piece.

Jim Malaro called Aliskerov–Muniz a classic UFC “thank-you” matchup meant to springboard Ikram after he accepted a short-notice beating from Robert Whittaker. Malaro said Aliskerov should obliterate Muniz inside two rounds and likes both the Aliskerov ITD (-140) and Round 1/2 props. His case: Muniz’s reputation rests on a fading Jacare submission and a grapple-free decision over Uriah Hall, but since then he has been choked by Brendan Allen, ground-and-pounded by Paul Craig, and somehow eked a split over Jun-Yong Park while landing only 12 significant strikes in 15 minutes. Muniz’s takedown accuracy has plummeted to 28 % across his last three bouts, and his cardio cratered after the first five minutes in each. Aliskerov stuffs 80 % of takedowns, owns a collegiate-level sambo background, and fires straight lefts that generate 1.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes. With Muniz’s only weapon—top-side jiu-jitsu—neutralized, Malaro expects Aliskerov to sprawl, make Muniz strike, and uncork combinations that end the fight before the midpoint.