Jim Turvey urged patience on new Braves futures, saying the market has already tightened after their recent 9-of-12 run. He pointed out Atlanta has enjoyed the 10th-easiest schedule to date but faces the NL’s fourth-toughest slate the rest of the way, including multiple series with San Francisco. Turvey wants clearer information on Spencer Strider’s elbow and the overall health of Michael Harris and the rest of the roster before laying more money. He believes the Braves’ true value will re-emerge if they slip into a wild-card path, when bettors can grab comparable pennant or World Series prices with far more information on player health and form.

Jim Turvey played the Tigers over 89 wins at ‑110 (Caesars) and tossed a small sprinkle on their AL pennant at +800. His confidence starts with the math: Detroit owns the single easiest remaining schedule by Baseball-Reference SOS, a stark contrast to Seattle and the AL East contenders who all face top-10 slates the rest of the way. Turvey highlighted several upside levers that have yet to click. Riley Greene is pacing the league in strikeouts and still posting a 104 wRC+; Turvey expects a second-half surge from a hitter he bet pre-season at long MVP odds. On the mound, Tarik Skubal’s Stuff+ and Pitching+ have actually improved on last year’s Cy Young-caliber marks, and the depth behind him is finally healthy—Casey Mize looks like the 1.01 version, and former top-five pick Jackson Jobe is logging his first extended MLB stretch. The bullpen has out-pitched its peripherals, but Turvey thinks the underlying talent (Jason Foley’s 102-mph sinker, Alex Lange’s revamped sweeper) is good enough to keep regression mild. Add it up and his projections spit out 92.3 median wins, giving more than three wins of cushion versus the posted 89. The pennant ticket is strictly a portfolio balance play: if the Tigers ride that soft slate to home-field advantage, a +800 number will look laughable by October.

Jim Turvey laid out an “escalator” approach to Cubs futures, arguing Chicago’s brutal early slate disguises how good this roster really is. The Cubs have already faced seven games against the Dodgers, six each versus the Diamondbacks and Padres, plus series with the Rangers and Phillies—yet they sit atop most NL offensive leaderboards. Turvey sees the seventh-worst bullpen ERA as fixable at the deadline and expects the front office to add arms. With Justin Steele’s injury the lone rotation worry, he believes the lineup’s depth (Pete Crow-Armstrong’s breakout, Carson Kelly’s absurd 15:6 BB:K and 1.350 OPS) makes Chicago the clear class of the NL Central. Bets he made: Over 91.5 wins (-110 at Caesars), NL Central ‑185 (DraftKings), first-round playoff bye +300, and best record in baseball +2200 (FanDuel). He prefers the best-record ticket over a World Series future, reasoning the Dodgers will rest stars down the stretch while the Cubs keep pressing through a much softer remaining schedule.

Jim Turvey laid out what he called an “escalator” portfolio on Seattle, arguing that the market still has not caught up to how complete the Mariners suddenly look. He grabbed their season-win total over 87.5 (-110 at FanDuel), a first-round playoff bye at +290 and an American League pennant ticket at +1000 (Caesars). Turvey’s conviction stems from the offense finally matching a rotation he already considers elite. Seattle ranks 2nd in wRC+ and 3rd in xwOBA despite Julio Rodriguez’s annual slow start (career 92 wRC+ in March/April that jumps to 155 in second halves). The lineup’s walk rate and newfound power are arriving even while the club owns a deflated BABIP. On the mound they still roll out Luis Castillo plus a deep stable of arms—Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are expected back soon and Bryan Woo or Emerson Hancock can fill any gap. Seattle has survived MLB’s 7th-hardest schedule so far and now enjoys the 5th-easiest remaining slate, a swing Turvey believes the market is ignoring. With division rivals Texas wobbling (16-16 record in spite of Eovaldi/ Mahle/ deGrom dominance) and Houston leaning on a thin bullpen, Turvey sees a clear path for the Mariners to crest 90 wins, claim one of the AL’s top two seeds, and make noise in October.

Jim Turvey said he would only get involved with Nick Kurtz for AL Rookie of the Year if a stray 25-1 or longer number appears. Projection models at Action keep flagging Kurtz unders, which Turvey reads as the market’s respect for his underlying batted-ball data even though the first-baseman is just 7-for-27 with 14 strikeouts and zero walks through eight MLB games. Oakland’s home park heats up in the summer, a factor Jim believes could unlock Kurtz’s 70-grade raw power once the weather warms. Still, with every major book sitting 12-to-13-1, he is passing for now but will pounce if public skepticism pushes the A’s rookie back into the mid-20s. Turvey framed it as a strict price-sensitive play: talent is real, but the current number overstates it.

Jim Turvey went back to the well on Paul Skenes for NL Cy Young at +210, insisting the implied 32% win probability undersells a pitcher he calls the Aaron Judge of hurlers. Skenes has purposefully dialed his average fastball from 99 to 98 mph to preserve health and pitch deeper—yet still ranks top-five in strikeout rate and sits 14th overall in xwOBA allowed, the only starter inside a reliever-dominated leaderboard. Turvey emphasized Skenes’ unique combo of elite whiffs and league-best hard-contact suppression, noting that even a brief IL stint or managed shutdown at 160 innings could be enough in today’s voting landscape. He concedes Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s torrid start explains the plus money, but believes Skenes remains “in a tier of his own” and that bettors should not overthink backing the best arm in baseball at anything longer than even money.

Jim Turvey doubled-down on Cole Ragans for AL Cy Young, this time grabbing the shorter +2000 at Caesars and arguing the number is still rich. Turvey highlighted that Ragans owns the lowest Deserved Run Average (2.97) of any qualified starter, matching his sub-3.00 FIP and xERA, a rare across-model consensus that screams true talent. He noted Ragans’ strikeout rate has climbed while his walks have dipped, and his hard-contact suppression plays perfectly inside cavernous Kauffman Stadium. Turvey also pointed out the schedule edge: Ragans will rack up starts against four of baseball’s worst offenses—White Sox, Twins, Guardians and a punch-less Tigers lineup—giving him an easier runway to chip away at the early 4-plus ERA that still clouds voters’ perception. With chaos and injuries sure to thin the field, Turvey views 20-1 as a live ‘buy-the-dip’ ticket even after the market’s initial move from 40-1.

Jim Turvey targeted Cole Ragans for AL Cy Young at 40-1 (widely available) despite a 4.12 ERA that masks true dominance. Ragans owns a 2.14 FIP, 2.30 xFIP and 2.55 xERA, all top-three among qualified AL starters. His 33% strikeout rate trails only Tarik Skubal, and a 9% walk rate yields a 24% K-BB%—Cy Young-caliber territory. Ragans’ 14.9% swinging-strike rate and 96th-percentile Stuff+ back up the whiffs, while Kauffman Stadium’s cavernous dimensions suppress homers (career 0.71 HR/9 at home). Turvey reminded listeners the award has essentially become an ERA crown; because peripheral indicators point to rapid positive regression, he expects Ragans’ ERA to tumble once an unsustainable .352 BABIP normalizes. With voters increasingly leaning on advanced metrics and Kansas City hovering near .500, Turvey sees a path similar to Blake Snell 2023—early volatility, dominant summer, award hardware. He prefers grabbing the long number now before a two-start heater cuts it in half.

Jim Turvey advised grabbing Pete Alonso at +1300 to win NL MVP at BetRivers while every other book sits between +650 and +750. Turvey noted the Mets’ blistering start—best record in baseball through the first month—puts their star first baseman on center stage. Alonso ranks second in MLB behind only Aaron Judge in expected wOBA (.471) and owns an even higher expected slugging percentage than his actual slugging, signaling more power is coming despite an already torrid April. Turvey dismissed concerns about a soft schedule, pointing out that offensive metrics such as hard-hit rate and barrel rate travel. He acknowledged MVP voting has become a WAR leaderboard, but argued Alonso’s 80-grade power can close the defensive WAR gap if he pushes 50 homers on a first-place New York club. Turvey also cited mild voter fatigue toward Shohei Ohtani’s three-peat attempt and the fact that a warm-weather L.A. schedule offers less narrative sizzle than Alonso mashing summer homers at Citi Field. Even with potential vote-splitting from teammates Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor, Turvey believes the BetRivers number is too long and will inevitably tighten once Alonso’s surface stats catch up to the underlying data.

Jim Turvey suggested adding Wyatt Langford at +7500 to an AL MVP portfolio as an injury-hedge dart behind overwhelming favorite Aaron Judge (-700). Langford is pacing for roughly 8 WAR over his current playing time, already owns six homers and four steals, and is doing it without an inflated BABIP. Turvey argued the rest of the AL field lacks a clear challenger—Bobby Witt Jr. is shortest behind Judge—so a Judge injury could leave a vacuum. If Langford surges while the Rangers heat up, his number could collapse, giving bettors valuable optionality to hedge or freeroll later in the season.

Jim Turvey sprinkled Corbin Carroll to record a triple at +2800 on DraftKings, a massive value gap compared to the +700 listed at FanDuel. Turvey reminded listeners that small differences in implied probability explode in long-shot markets. Carroll already has four triples this season (league leader) and posted 14 a year ago, leveraging elite 30-ft-per-second sprint speed. Citizens Bank Park ranks as a top-eight venue for left-handed triples, and Carroll will see multiple at-bats versus a Philadelphia bullpen loaded with righties after the initial left-left matchup against Jesus Luzardo. Turvey loves betting ceiling outcomes on players who “do the amazing often,” making a 28-1 ticket on baseball’s pre-eminent triples threat too tempting to pass.

Jim Turvey likes Antonio Senzatela over 2.5 strikeouts at -132, calling the right-hander’s current single-digit K-rate comically unsustainable. His swinging-strike, called-strike and O-swing percentages all mirror his career norms (13% K-rate historically), velocity is intact, and overall Pitching+ is unchanged, with a bump in Location+ offsetting a small dip in Stuff+. Turvey believes the tiny early-season sample is masking true talent. The matchup sweetens the play: San Francisco strikes out at a top-10 clip versus righties and owns a bottom-10 wRC+ in that split. Three punch-outs should come naturally if Senzatela simply regresses to his norm.

Jim Turvey said to play Sonny Gray under 5.5 strikeouts at -105. He pointed out that Gray’s strikeout rate has fallen from last year’s career-best 30% back to 24%, right in line with his historical baseline. Supporting metrics are all sliding: swinging-strike rate down to 12.1% (13.4% in 2023), O-Swing down three points, Stuff+ down to 96 and Location+ down to 96. Turvey called 2023 an outlier season and expects continued mean reversion. The Mets own a bottom-10 strikeout rate, and they just saw Gray two weeks ago—six punch-outs in an outing that required a season-high 102 pitches. With the market still weighing 2023 too heavily, Turvey likes the near-even-money price on the under.