JJ Carvalho likes Erin Blanchfield at the current –225 moneyline but thinks the real value sits with her submission prop at +425 in a 25-minute main event. Barber has never been tapped, yet she gives up 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and has been planted by lesser wrestlers such as Tracy Cortez and Andrea Lee. Blanchfield owns a 55-percent takedown accuracy and averages 3.7 submission attempts per fight, having finished Jessica Andrade and crucifixed Molly McCann in dominant grappling displays. JJ also flagged Barber’s lack of five-round experience and a recent leg-injury layoff as fuel for late-fight mistakes—exactly when Blanchfield’s cardio shines. He envisions Barber’s forward-pressure blitzes creating scrambles that allow Blanchfield to hit outside trips, take the back and hunt the choke. If you want a safer angle, JJ suggested decision at +175, but he is personally firing on the sub and sprinkling Round 4/5 props for extra upside.

JJ Carvalho pushed back on the Ludovit Klein hype train and backed Mateusz Gamrot by decision at roughly −115. Gamrot lands 4.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, averages 6:03 of control time and has gone the distance in five of his last six wins. JJ expects those wrestling numbers to translate against the smaller Klein, who is moving up from featherweight and defends takedowns at a modest 58 %. The mere threat of the level change should blunt Klein’s southpaw kicking game and open overhand rights for Gamrot on the feet. Klein has never been submitted, so Carvalho leans toward another grind-heavy 30-27 scorecard but noted Gamrot’s opportunistic kimura over Jeremy Stephens; the 35-1 kimura prop on BetMGM is his recommended sprinkle for long-shot hunters.

JJ Carvalho lumped the Zach Reese–Dusko Todorovic scrap into his "Round 1 or bust" bucket. Reese owns nine first-round finishes in ten career wins, while all five of Todorovic’s UFC defeats ended inside the opening frame. With both men happy to stand and trade, JJ is betting Reese Round 1 KO/TKO (around +120) and backing "Fight Ends in Round 1" at roughly –105 to hedge a potential Dusko ambush. He reminded listeners that Reese’s cardio cratered in January’s ground-and-pound loss to Anthony Hernandez, so any ticket past the opening five minutes should shift to Todorovic via live betting. Still, the convergence of statistical violence—14 combined first-round outcomes—makes front-loaded exposure the sharpest pre-fight angle in Carvalho’s eyes.

JJ Carvalho recommended beer-money sprinkles on Jafel Filho Round 2 (+900) and Round 3 (+1200) finish props against Allan Nascimento. JJ acknowledged Nascimento’s slick résumé—15 career submissions, 12 in the opening five minutes, never tapped—but pointed to a 19-month layoff, four cancelled bouts since 2023, nagging injuries and brutal weight cuts for the giant flyweight. Those factors have produced noticeable gas-tank issues in his split-decision defeats to Tagir Ulanbekov and Raulian Paiva. Filho, on the other hand, has proven he can rally after rough starts, nearly tearing Muhammad Mokaev’s knee off and choking out Daniel Barez minutes after being dropped. Carvalho’s thesis: if Nascimento empties the tank hunting an early sub and fails, his pacing falls off a cliff, leaving his neck and limbs exposed for Filho to snatch in the later rounds. That scenario gives the Round 2/3 lotto tickets real live value.