JJ Carvalho pushed back on the Ludovit Klein hype train and backed Mateusz Gamrot by decision at roughly −115. Gamrot lands 4.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, averages 6:03 of control time and has gone the distance in five of his last six wins. JJ expects those wrestling numbers to translate against the smaller Klein, who is moving up from featherweight and defends takedowns at a modest 58 %. The mere threat of the level change should blunt Klein’s southpaw kicking game and open overhand rights for Gamrot on the feet. Klein has never been submitted, so Carvalho leans toward another grind-heavy 30-27 scorecard but noted Gamrot’s opportunistic kimura over Jeremy Stephens; the 35-1 kimura prop on BetMGM is his recommended sprinkle for long-shot hunters.

JJ Carvalho lumped the Zach Reese–Dusko Todorovic scrap into his "Round 1 or bust" bucket. Reese owns nine first-round finishes in ten career wins, while all five of Todorovic’s UFC defeats ended inside the opening frame. With both men happy to stand and trade, JJ is betting Reese Round 1 KO/TKO (around +120) and backing "Fight Ends in Round 1" at roughly –105 to hedge a potential Dusko ambush. He reminded listeners that Reese’s cardio cratered in January’s ground-and-pound loss to Anthony Hernandez, so any ticket past the opening five minutes should shift to Todorovic via live betting. Still, the convergence of statistical violence—14 combined first-round outcomes—makes front-loaded exposure the sharpest pre-fight angle in Carvalho’s eyes.