Joe Ceraulo bet the Diamondbacks money line at +105, citing several angles. Zach Gallen owns a career ERA almost two runs lower at Chase Field than on the road and has kept the current Atlanta lineup mostly quiet (Matt Olson 3-for-15, Marcell Ozuna 4-for-16, Michael Harris plus Orlando Arcia a combined 2-for-13). Although Gallen’s 2025 ERA sits above 5.00, Ceraulo expects a course-correction at home where Arizona’s thin air routinely boosts offense but has historically brought out Gallen’s best. On the other side, 36-year-old Chris Sale is 0-2 with a 6-plus ERA and now leaves the cozy confines of Truist Park for a hitter’s haven. Atlanta is 2-11 on the road versus 8-3 at home, while MLB home teams in general are winning roughly 63 % of games this season. Given the Braves’ travel woes, Sale’s regression and the D-backs’ slightly better current lineup, Ceraulo likes Arizona to snap its two-game skid as a short home dog.

Ceraulo flagged Logan Gilbert’s outs-recorded prop Over 18.5 at +135 as a live bet. Gilbert has logged at least seven strikeouts in all five starts and owns a pitch-efficient 1.04 WHIP, suggesting he can clear 6⅓ innings if manager Scott Servais lets him push past the sixth. The Marlins have the NL’s worst wRC+ (78) and rank 27th in walk rate, so they’re unlikely to work deep counts. Miami’s lineup also has the fifth-highest chase rate against sliders and splitters—two pitches Gilbert uses a combined 46 %. With the Mariners entering as solid home favorites and Seattle’s bullpen throwing 5⅓ high-leverage innings the night before, Ceraulo expects a long leash for Gilbert, making the plus-money number to eclipse 18.5 outs attractive.

Ceraulo suggested attacking Michael King’s strikeout prop Over 6.5 at –115. King has punched out 31 batters in five starts and has hit the 7-K mark in three of his last four, including both of his Petco Park outings (8 Ks in a complete game vs Colorado and 11 Ks in five innings vs Cleveland). Tampa ranks in the league’s bottom half in contact rate and must face King without having to contend with San Diego’s injury-riddled offense on the other side, making the K prop a cleaner path. The handicap hinges on King’s home splits and recent momentum: a 29 % K rate at Petco and an average of 9.8 Ks per nine there. While Ceraulo admitted he “doesn’t love” laying juice on the Padres’ money line given their battered lineup, he sees value in needing only seven strikeouts from King at near-even money.

Ceraulo bet Over 9 at even money in Sacramento, pointing to Jacob deGrom’s shaky form—five homers allowed in his last three outings—and Oakland’s inexperienced J.T. Ginn on the other side. The A’s ballpark has played 14% above league average for HRs this month, and both bullpens enter with ERAs north of 4.60. He passed on 8.5 to avoid a hook in a game he projects for double-digit scoring.

Ceraulo snagged No-Run-First-Inning at –125 (already –130/–135 elsewhere) because Bryan Woo owns elite 0.70 first-inning WHIP and Garrett Crochet’s high-90s heater should neutralize Seattle’s recently hot Yerfi lineup. He trusts Woo to silence Boston’s inconsistent top third and thinks the market could steam 20–25 cents by first pitch.

Ceraulo grabbed Washington at +100 with ace MacKenzie Gore (2.89 ERA, 28% K-rate) opposing Baltimore rookie Cade Povich (6.75 ERA). He notes the Nats are 7-4 at home while the Orioles have struggled away from Camden Yards, and home teams are cashing at a 58% clip league-wide. Getting an effective lefty versus a lineup with a sub-.700 OPS against southpaws at even money was enough for a play.

Ceraulo put a half-unit on the Jets to take a tight end with their first selection at +340 (now +270). He reasons that after watching Brock Bowers explode as a rookie, the front office will not repeat last year’s perceived mistake of passing on an elite pass-catching TE. With Penn State’s Tyler Warren projected to be on the board at No. 7, Ceraulo expects New York to grab him unless a surprise trade run on tight ends materializes. The bet cashes regardless of which TE is chosen, but Warren is the only realistic candidate.

To protect the Membou wager, Ceraulo also staked one unit on Will Campbell at +630 to be the second offensive lineman taken. If Campbell goes No. 1 at tackle—as current mocks suggest—and Membou slips to No. 2, the two bets wash. Should Jacksonville or Las Vegas vault Membou into the top spot, the +630 Campbell ticket would cash for a 3.5-unit profit. Ceraulo warns that Taliese Banks cracking the top two would bust both tickets but views that as a low-probability outcome.

Ceraulo laid –275 (one unit) on Armand Membou to be the second offensive lineman drafted. His blueprint: if draft boards follow the consensus order—Will Campbell first, Membou second—the wager is simply a push against his hedge on Campbell. If Jacksonville or Las Vegas shockingly prefers Membou’s higher athletic ceiling and selects him first, Campbell would slide to second, turning this ticket into a loser but triggering the hedge. Ceraulo believes only OT Taliese Banks could ruin the plan by sneaking into the top two, but sees that scenario as unlikely.

Joe Ceraulo grabbed Sanders 12-1 earlier in the week and likes the current 20-1 even more for Sanders to be selected exactly ninth overall. Ceraulo thinks New Orleans—holding pick 9—will strongly consider a quarterback and believes new OC Kellen Moore would sign off on Sanders over Jackson Dart. He dismissed the anonymous report about a poor Sanders interview as classic draft-season misdirection, possibly leaked by the Saints or Steelers to suppress Sanders’ price. Ceraulo concedes New Orleans could punt QB until 2026 but still sees enough paths (Steelers, another trade-up) to justify a quarter-unit flyer at the juiced odds.

Ceraulo took Cole Ragans –120 to earn the W in Game 1 of the double-header versus Colorado. Ragans owns a 1.14 ERA in three April starts at Kauffman Stadium and has punched out double-digit batters in each. Facing German Marquez (8.97 ERA) and a Rockies lineup that ranks 29th in road OPS, Ceraulo figures two early KC runs could be enough for the lefty to qualify and cash the prop.