Joe Osborne strongly endorses betting Shota Imanaga under 1.5 earned runs at plus-140 odds against the Texas Rangers. He highlights Imanaga's stellar start to the season, boasting a minuscule 0.98 ERA and a remarkable 0.71 WHIP across three tough matchups against top-tier teams Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Osborne sees this as a repeatable pattern from last year, when Imanaga similarly excelled early, allowing one or fewer earned runs in seven of his first nine starts. Supporting Osborne's bet further is the Rangers' offense, currently ranked a dismal 25th in OPS this season, indicating a sluggish start offensively. Osborne confidently sees significant value on this prop given Imanaga's formidable recent form combined with the Rangers' early offensive struggles.

Joe Osborne is betting Lars Nootbaar over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Mitch Keller and the Pirates. Nootbaar has performed strongly to start the season, reaching this number in seven of his first ten games. Osborne pointed to Nootbaar's excellent history against Keller, owning a career OPS of 1.217 with five walks in 15 at-bats. Mitch Keller struggled significantly against the Yankees last time out, giving up seven runs and allowing 12 total base runners in just 3.2 innings. Osborne additionally highlighted the Pirates' bullpen woes, ranking bottom-third in ERA and FIP, offering further optimism that Nootbaar succeeds offensively in this matchup.

Joe Osborne enthusiastically advises betting the Cubs to surpass their alternate team total of 4.5 runs (+122) against Patrick Corbin and the Rangers. Osborne highlights Patrick Corbin's well-known struggles at Wrigley Field, evidenced by his career 5.82 ERA in this ballpark. Even further, Cubs batters collectively own an impressive 1.000+ OPS against Corbin over a solid 148 at-bat sample. Last season, Corbin allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners over just 4.1 innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Additionally, the Cubs offense has been red-hot lately, scoring five or more runs in seven of their previous eight games, ranking third in runs per game (6.46) and fifth overall in weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Osborne also mentions Corbin's rushed preparation, noting he hasn't pitched in spring training or minor league games and has limited readiness from only throwing a simulated game before this start. Despite some wind blowing inward at Wrigley Field, Osborne emphasizes sportsbooks have factored this in, and the price of +122 offers great value.

Joe Osborne is taking the Phillies at plus odds with Zack Wheeler on the mound against Atlanta. Joe highlights Wheeler's dominant start, allowing just one earned run in each of his two starts with only five hits conceded total and 18 strikeouts. He also emphasizes Wheeler's historic dominance against the Braves (0.95 ERA in three starts last year) and notes the Braves' MLB-worst OPS entering this matchup. Contrasting that with Philly's high-powered offense, Joe assesses clear value in backing Wheeler and the Phillies as slight underdogs.

Joe Osborne strongly recommended betting Kyle Freeland under 17.5 total outs recorded against the Phillies, citing clear recency bias inflating the current market. Despite Freeland's strong season debut where he registered 18 outs against Tampa Bay without giving up a run, Osborne views that start as an outlier. He pointed to Freeland's poor historical performance, emphasizing that he's posted back-to-back seasons with an ERA over five and highlighted surprisingly worse road splits with a 5.98 ERA away from Coors Field last year. Osborne also noted that Freeland faces an elite Phillies offense, which currently ranks second in MLB in OPS just behind the Yankees and leads the National League in offensive productivity to start the season. Adding to his rationale, Osborne mentioned that the Rockies bullpen is fresh and ready to act quickly, as Hermann Marquez provided six innings in the previous game, meaning the Rockies won't hesitate to pull Freeland early if he's ineffective.

Joe Osborne is betting the under on Ben Lively recording 15.5 total outs for the Guardians against San Diego. He noted that despite a decent debut against Kansas City, Cleveland pulled Lively after just 5 innings and 67 pitches, indicating their cautious approach and heavy reliance on their bullpen. Last season, Lively rarely reached high pitch counts—only once surpassing 100 pitches in 29 starts and frequently kept below 90 pitches. Facing an elite Padres offense ranked 6th in OPS and lowest strikeout rate makes him more likely to struggle and exit early, especially with Guardians bullpen fresh after using just two relievers yesterday.

Joe Osborne recommended betting on Ryan Pepiot to go over 17.5 total outs recorded prop against the Pirates. Pepiot impressed in his season debut, efficiently registering 18 outs with only 85 pitches, 8 strikeouts, and just one earned run allowed. Facing a struggling Pirates lineup (27th in OPS, .194 batting average against right-handed pitching), Pepiot is positioned well for another extended and dominant outing today in what Osborne believes could be Pepiot's breakout season.