Joe Osbourne grabbed Lerone Murphy at +150 against Aaron Pico, pointing out that Pico is jumping into his UFC debut on short notice after his original booking fell apart. Osbourne argued Pico’s glossy Bellator record is built on ‘entry-level guys’, whereas Murphy is the division’s #6 contender with 17 pro bouts and zero losses. Murphy out-landed Josh Emmett by 43 significant strikes last time out and, two fights earlier, blitzed Edson Barboza by 140. Joe conceded Murphy’s takedown defence is merely average but stressed he is difficult to hold down. Given the proven output on the feet and the question marks around Pico’s level-up, Osbourne believes the plus-money tag is mispriced.

Joe Osbourne said the value sits squarely on Dricus Du Plessis at +190 to beat Khamzat Chimaev and keep the belt. His case hinged on two angles. First, raw volume: Du Plessis throws 6.12 significant strikes per minute and carries real knockout power, whereas Chimaev’s UFC striking-defence rate is just 41 percent—well below divisional averages—so Joe expects Chimaev to eat leather early and often. Second, durability over five rounds: Osbourne noted Chimaev’s cardio dip in longer scraps with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, while Du Plessis, the larger man, has already banked multiple main-event rounds and remains undefeated in the promotion. Put together, a hittable favourite plus a power puncher who usually gets stronger as the clock ticks equals a live underdog Joe is happy to ride.

Joe Osbourne locked in Dricus Du Plessis at +170 on Bet99 as one of his three plus-money best bets for UFC 319. He emphasized that the reigning middleweight champion owns an 11-fight UFC winning streak and has never lost inside the promotion, arguing the line underrates that resume. Pairing those facts with Georges St-Pierre’s assessment that Du Plessis thrives in later rounds, Osbourne believes the champ’s well-rounded skill set and superior cardio can survive Chimaev’s opening blitz and cash the underdog ticket.

Joe Osbourne strongly favors Pete Alonso over 1.5 total hits, runs, RBI against the Cardinals and pitcher Andre Palante tonight. Alonso's impressive hot start (.365 average, 1.205 OPS through 50 at-bats in April) and consistent dominance versus right-handed pitching and home matchups (OPS over 1,000 in both splits) are cited by Osbourne as strong support. He also calls attention to Palante’s fortunate .182 batting average on balls in play allowed despite surrendering significant hard contact, as well as a suspect Cardinals bullpen, projecting sustained elite output from Alonso tonight at Citi Field.

Joe Osbourne likes Michael Lorenzen to go over 15.5 total outs recorded (-120 odds) against the low-scoring Detroit Tigers lineup. Lorenzen has surpassed this outs total in all three of his starts this season, even while staying under 90 pitches in two of those three appearances. On the season, he's pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA with a good 14:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Osbourne emphasizes Detroit's recent offensive struggles, ranking 29th in OPS over the last week and scoring one or fewer runs in three of their last four games. Additionally, Tigers batters own just a .190 batting average and .568 OPS in 42 combined career at bats against Lorenzen.

Joe Osbourne advises betting the over 4.5 total hits allowed by Jordan Hicks against the Phillies at odds around -125, highlighting Hicks' struggles as a starter and recent form as key factors. Last season, Hicks allowed more hits than innings pitched, and recently he’s given up 14 hits across his last two starts. Osbourne notes that Hicks is generally least effective in the starting role and faces a strong Philadelphia lineup that produced 25 total hits in the previous three games of this series, presenting a tough challenge for him on the mound.

Joe Osbourne recommends Jorge Polanco over 1.5 total hits, runs, and RBI at -105 odds against Brady Singer and the Cincinnati Reds. Osbourne points to Polanco’s strong start (.366 batting average, .982 OPS in 11 games so far), prior career success against Singer (906 OPS and multiple home runs in 27 career plate appearances), and exceptional performance this season versus right-handed pitchers (OPS over 1,000 and 3 HR in 35 ABs). He also mentioned Polanco as a potential home-run bet at +400 odds, underscoring the potential upside in this matchup.