Joe Pisapia went back to the same matchup for his home-run call, backing Shohei Ohtani. Oakland still lists the starter as "TBD," and Pisapia joked "TBD gives up a lot of homers." If it is Jeffrey Springs making his first MLB appearance since surgery, Pisapia likes the spot even more because Ohtani owns a 1.089 OPS off lefties and sits in the 94th percentile for barrel rate. With friendly hitting conditions at Dodger Stadium, Pisapia expects Ohtani’s elite exit velocities to cash the HR prop.

Pisapia laid –126 on the Blue Jays because Jose Berrios has the form edge while Shane Baz is scuffling. Baz owns a 4.93 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across his last seven starts (38 IP) and his command has wavered, prompting Pisapia to say he’ll "keep attacking Baz until he turns it around." With Berrios working deeper into games and Toronto’s bullpen rested, Pisapia expects the Jays to control the matchup; he even suggested adding the Toronto team-total over for extra exposure.

Joe Pisapia said fantasy managers should be ready to jettison Jordan Walker after another 0-for-4, two-strikeout night dragged the 22-year-old’s slash line even lower. Pisapia expects St. Louis to option Walker before the weekend, noting it would be his third demotion in as many seasons. He argued the club can easily absorb the move because Brendan Donovan can shift to a corner spot while Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott, and Alec Burleson all provide outfield depth. Pisapia added that Walker’s winter attempt to shorten his swing by bringing his hands inside has backfired—“everything is worse this year”—making a change of scenery or a “poop-for-poop” trade increasingly likely. In redraft leagues of 12 teams or fewer, Pisapia advised cutting Walker now rather than waiting for the inevitable transaction.

Joe Pisapia called "shenanigans" on the Brewers’ explanation that Brandon Woodruff’s additional rehab start is strictly due to ankle tendinitis. Pisapia is worried because Woodruff’s fastball sat just 90–91 mph in his last rehab appearance—well below his typical 95 mph—and he suspects a potential dead-arm period or lingering shoulder trouble. While acknowledging that an ankle issue could sap push-off power, Pisapia advised fantasy managers to keep Woodruff on the bench until the velocity returns, warning that investing heavily in injured pitchers always carries hidden risk.

Joe Pisapia grabbed Boston at –108 on the road, arguing the market is underrating how lopsided the pitching matchup is. Detroit rookie Jackson Jobe owns an ERA north of 5.00 and a .287 opponent average, whereas Tanner Houck has delivered quality starts in five of his last six with a 57% ground-ball rate. Pisapia also pointed out Rafael Devers’ recent heater (three homers, .390 OBP over his past seven games) and Boston’s top-10 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. He expects the Red Sox to chase Jobe early and let their rested bullpen protect a lead.

Pisapia pounced on Pittsburgh at +120 with Paul Skenes on the hill. Even after a shaky Cardinals start, Skenes still sports a 32% strikeout rate and the best Stuff+ among National League starters. Pisapia conceded the Mets lineup has been red-hot (121 wRC+ in May) but argued that whenever the league’s premier strikeout arm is an underdog, bettors should take the value. He trusts Skenes to outduel David Peterson and believes a middling New York bullpen (4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) gives the Pirates paths to win even in a low-scoring game.

Pisapia also bet Rafael Devers to record a run at +145. He cited Devers’ 46% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks and Detroit’s bullpen ranking 26th in xFIP. With Jobe struggling to miss bats (16% whiff rate) and Houck likely keeping Boston in front, Pisapia expects Devers to bat at least five times and believes a single extra-base hit or walk will put him in scoring position against a relief corps allowing 1.32 HR/9.

Joe Pisapia warned managers to prepare for the possibility that Blake Snell never becomes a usable fantasy asset in 2024. Snell attempted to resume throwing but still felt discomfort, prompting the Dodgers to shut him back down. Pisapia noted Snell’s age, checkered injury history, and the club’s cushy division lead give Los Angeles every incentive to slow-roll or even shelve him entirely. With no bullpen sessions scheduled and no timeline for ramp-up, Pisapia advised anyone without an IL slot to consider cutting bait rather than burning a bench spot through midsummer hoping for a late-season cameo.

Joe Pisapia said it is perfectly reasonable to drop Nick Kurtz in 10-team formats after another 0-for-3 with a ninth-inning pinch-hitter. Kurtz owns a 39 % strike-out rate through his first two weeks, and the upcoming stretch (@Dodgers, @Giants, vs Angels, vs Phillies) does him no favors. Even though the rookie still sports a .269 average, Pisapia expects pitchers to keep exploiting his whiff problems with breaking and off-speed stuff. He added that Oakland could send Kurtz back down by Memorial Day if the punch-outs do not correct, so redraft managers protecting batting-average or OBP categories should move on unless they play in 12-plus-team leagues where upside bats are scarce.

Pisapia urged managers to trade for Alcantara now while the surface numbers still scare people. Alcantara fanned eight over 5.2 IP against the White Sox, and Chris Welsh highlighted a meaningful tweak: the change-up, normally his go-to, fell to only 15 % usage (fourth in his arsenal) with zero whiffs, while the fastball/curve combo generated every swing-and-miss. Welsh believes temporarily shelving the change-up could jump-start whiffs before re-introducing it later. The strikeout bounce, 107-pitch workload, and unchanged raw stuff suggest the ace version is close; the sky-high ERA keeps the buy window open another week or two.

Joe Pisapia said Wheeler’s price remains a bargain even after Sunday’s gem (8 K, 7 IP). Wheeler opened last week at 11-to-1, moved to 9-to-1 Sunday morning, and slid only to 7-to-1 after dominating again, signaling the market is still catching up. Pisapia noted the NL field is wide-open because Paul Skenes’ strikeout rate has dipped and voters have no runaway favorite. If Wheeler keeps piling up innings and whiffs on a first-place club, Pisapia expects those odds to keep crashing, making any ticket at 7-to-1 or longer an immediate buy for bettors hunting value.

Joe Pisapia upgraded his Tigers-Rockies same-game parlay by replacing Riley Greene’s RBI leg with a home-run prop, pushing the payout from 3-to-1 to 8.5-to-1. The bet is specifically for Game 2 of the Coors Field doubleheader, where Pisapia expects the altitude and Colorado’s patch-work bullpen (5.62 ERA, worst in MLB) to magnify every hard-hit ball. Greene may sit the early game, but his average exit velocity (91.4 mph) and 12 % barrel rate both eclipse last year’s marks, and he has already homered twice on the road trip. Pisapia views the switch as a classic risk-reward tweak: the Tigers’ leadoff man can still cash the parlay with one swing, while the wider odds compensate for the added variance.

Joe Pisapia urged deeper-league managers not to overlook Kyle Harrison, freshly summoned to the Giants’ bullpen. Harrison logged 10.2 K/9 with a 3.06 ERA at Triple-A Sacramento and, according to Joe, could leapfrog struggling incumbents in the next couple of weeks if San Francisco continues to search for rotation answers. Even in a relief role, the 22-year-old’s mid-90s fastball/slider combo plays up, but Pisapia’s real appeal lies in being first to market on a potential May starter who is still widely available. He suggested a small FAAB stash in 15-team mixed and NL-only formats before Harrison’s role expands.

Joe Pisapia pegged Camilo Doval as the top closer pickup of the week after Ryan Walker’s latest blown save. Doval has been “fantastic” when healthy and, in Joe’s view, owns a realistic shot to lock down the ninth for the rest of 2024 given Walker’s 5.15 ERA and declining strikeout rate. With only 50 % rostership, Doval should command the highest FAAB bid among speculative relievers, ahead of Shelby Miller and Porter Hodge.

Joe Pisapia reminded listeners that Jordan Beck is inexplicably available in roughly half of fantasy leagues and should be the priority add over Carter or Outman, especially with the Rockies at home this week. Beck has 5 homers, 4 steals and plays his home games in Coors, giving him an immediate park-factor boost. Although the rookie’s 28 strike-outs are concerning, Joe likes the power/speed combo for managers who just lost Yordan Alvarez or Teoscar Hernandez and need short-term outfield production that can also stick long term.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to skip Evan Carter altogether. Carter slashed just .212 in AAA, owns a career .263 OPS versus left-handed pitching, and—according to Joe—“might be nothing but a platoon guy who can’t hit anyone.” With so many blind spots in his profile, Pisapia called bidding on Carter a waste of free-agent budget and recommended focusing on more well-rounded options such as Jordan Beck.

Joe Pisapia said James Outman is a perfectly serviceable plug-and-play replacement for managers who just lost Teoscar Hernandez. Outman posted an .830 OPS with 8 homers in only 32 AAA games before the call-up and is rostered in barely 2–3 % of leagues, so the acquisition cost is next to nothing. Joe acknowledged the 35 % strike-out rate that doomed him last season, but noted that fantasy GMs can squeeze a week or two of cheap power while Teoscar sits and then simply toss Outman back on waivers when Hernandez is activated. The takeaway: spend zero or $1 FAAB for a short-term power lottery ticket and worry about the whiffs later.

Joe Pisapia took the over on Michael King’s 6.5 strikeout prop for Tuesday’s start against the Yankees. Pisapia noted that New York has the fourth-highest team strikeout total in baseball and routinely struggles to put the ball in play against right-handed sliders – King’s out pitch. The right-hander has recorded at least seven punch-outs in three of his last four outings while pushing his swinging-strike rate above 14 %. Pisapia added that King is facing his former organization and ‘wants to stick it to the Yankees,’ a narrative he thinks could keep Bob Melvin from giving King an early hook. He paired the K prop with the Padres money-line (-106) in a two-leg parlay that pays +219 but said the strikeout over is the priority bet.

Joe Pisapia urged fantasy managers not to let Devin Williams linger on waivers after a league-mate cut him. Even though the timeline for Williams’s return from his back injury remains vague, Pisapia argued the upside of a potential top-five closer is too great to ignore. He compared the stash decision to less-certain speculative arms like Cade Smith, pointing out that Milwaukee will hand Williams the ninth inning as soon as he’s healthy, whereas most stop-gap relievers have razor-thin job security. Pisapia added that Williams still sports elite career numbers—a 1.89 ERA and 40% strikeout rate—so a half-season of his saves could swing leagues that use limited IL spots.

Joe Pisapia singled out Brent Rooker as his favorite long-shot homer bet at +360. Pisapia noted that Seattle rookie Emerson Hancock brings a 6.00 ERA into tonight’s start and has already served up a blast to Rooker in their limited history (Rooker is 1-for-2 with a homer off him). The game will be played in one of the league’s smallest outfield footprints, a park Joe called “that tiny ballpark,” which should help Rooker’s pull-side power play even bigger. Pisapia trusts Rooker’s 15% barrel rate and 93 mph average exit velocity to punish Hancock’s middling four-seamer again and thinks the price is far too generous for a hitter who already has 13 bombs in 210 plate appearances. He framed the prop as both a straight bet and a DFS one-off tournament dart for owners chasing upside.

Joe Pisapia called Yordan Alvarez a prime trade target after the slugger landed on the 10-day IL with what the Astros labeled a minor oblique tweak. Pisapia stressed that Houston refused to back-date the move, signaling confidence Alvarez will return as soon as eligible and avoid a lengthy rehab assignment. He reminded listeners that Alvarez still ranks in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected slugging, so the underlying skills are unchanged. Because fantasy managers often panic over IL designations, Pisapia suggested opening with a 90-cent-on-the-dollar offer—think Juan Soto-lite bats such as Kyle Schwarber or J.D. Martinez—and emphasized that contending teams should pounce now before Alvarez starts a rehab stint and the discount evaporates.

Joe Pisapia took the over on Michael King’s 6.5 strikeout prop for Tuesday’s start against the Yankees. Pisapia noted that New York has the fourth-highest team strikeout total in baseball and routinely struggles to put the ball in play against right-handed sliders – King’s out pitch. The right-hander has recorded at least seven punch-outs in three of his last four outings while pushing his swinging-strike rate above 14 %. Pisapia added that King is facing his former organization and ‘wants to stick it to the Yankees,’ a narrative he thinks could keep Bob Melvin from giving King an early hook. He paired the K prop with the Padres money-line (-106) in a two-leg parlay that pays +219 but said the strikeout over is the priority bet.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to aim sky-high if they shop Garrett Crochet, insisting the left-hander’s breakout merits a return such as Fernando Tatis Jr. or Francisco Lindor. Pisapia framed Crochet as a top-five fantasy starter thanks to an elite strikeout rate (over 11.0 K/9) and strong team context. He warned against two-for-one offers like Brian Woo plus Carson Kelly, stressing that Crochet’s value is too high to settle for quantity over quality. The takeaway: treat Crochet like an ace and do not move him unless you secure a true difference-making hitter.

Joe Pisapia advised holding Ronald Acuna Jr., pointing out that the Braves’ superstar no longer needs a follow-up exam in Los Angeles and is still targeting an end-of-May return. Pisapia expects a rehab assignment to be announced soon and sees no reason to panic-sell or drop Acuna in leagues with limited IL spots. While he acknowledged some awkward vibes between Acuna and the Atlanta front office over the initial hamstring diagnosis, Pisapia emphasized that the medical update keeps the original, relatively short timetable intact, making Acuna worth stashing in every format.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to aim sky-high if they shop Garrett Crochet, insisting the left-hander’s breakout merits a return such as Fernando Tatis Jr. or Francisco Lindor. Pisapia framed Crochet as a top-five fantasy starter thanks to an elite strikeout rate (over 11.0 K/9) and strong team context. He warned against two-for-one offers like Brian Woo plus Carson Kelly, stressing that Crochet’s value is too high to settle for quantity over quality. The takeaway: treat Crochet like an ace and do not move him unless you secure a true difference-making hitter.

Joe Pisapia said that Sandy Alcantara is fully droppable in 10-team leagues after another ugly outing against the Dodgers. Pisapia pointed out that Alcantara has produced only eight total fantasy points all season thanks to elevated walks, losses, and earned runs. Chris Welsh’s pitch-mix breakdown added context: Alcantara’s once-dominant changeup is now just his third-most-used pitch, his four-seamer has no life and is living up in the zone, and the whiff metrics are dreadful (23 % swing-and-miss rate, 26 % CSW). With batters routinely squaring him up and his next turn coming versus the White Sox, Pisapia argued there’s no reason to waste a roster spot on Alcantara in shallow formats, though he would still stash in 12-teamers or deeper.

Joe Pisapia is swinging for the fences with Francisco Lindor to homer at +520 any day this weekend in St. Louis. Lindor owns a .595 SLG and four career homers off Sonny Gray and boasts a .333 average versus Kyle Gibson and former KBO ace Eric Feddie, both slated to pitch. The Cardinals’ staff has allowed the sixth-highest HR/FB rate (15.2%) since May, and Busch Stadium plays neutral for left-handed power. Pisapia called the Mets shortstop “my favorite lottery ticket on the board” given Lindor’s elevated 43% pull rate and barrel uptick over the last two weeks.

Joe Pisapia recommended wagering Ryan Mountcastle to record an RBI at +170 despite the first baseman’s cold April. Mountcastle owns a 1.400 OPS in 22 career at-bats against Michael Wacha, including multiple extra-base hits, and Wacha’s 13.6% strikeout rate leaves plenty of balls in play. With the Orioles implied for five runs in Kauffman Stadium and Mountcastle likely hitting fifth behind Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, Pisapia believes the plus-money offers a rare buy-low window on a pure batter-vs-pitcher edge.

Joe Pisapia advised betting Elly De La Cruz to swipe a bag at +194 tonight against Washington. Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz has gunned down only 20–26% of runners this season, providing a green light for MLB’s stolen-base leader. Pisapia framed the price as nearly 2-to-1 on an elite skill in a favorable battery matchup that projects Max Fried-type pace to the plate. He called it his favorite prop of the day and suggested folding it into a small long-shot parlay with two other power props for a 50-to-1 payout.

Joe Pisapia said he would pull the trigger on swapping a struggling Sandy Alcantara for Marcus Semien in a 14-team head-to-head categories league. Both former studs are underperforming, but Pisapia trusts Semien’s age-related dip (he has slumped like this before) more than Alcantara’s "really weird" loss of swing-and-miss. With multiple injuries decimating middle infield depth, the manager gains everyday volume at second base while divesting from Miami’s win-scarce environment. Pisapia expects Semien’s OPS to rebound well before Alcantara irons out his diminished change-up, making the deal a risk-balanced way to patch roster holes without punting upside.

Joe Pisapia endorsed streaming Gunnar Hoglund for his spot start in Miami, noting both matchup and form. The former first-rounder owns a 2.43 ERA, 30 K, 7 BB, and 1.04 WHIP through six minor-league outings with his fastball velocity back after multiple injuries and a harder slider generating whiffs. The Marlins rank bottom-5 in wRC+ and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, giving Hoglund a high-floor, strikeout-driven profile for one-week leagues. Pisapia said he would roll the dice in any 12-team format that allows daily pickups, likening the play to past one-off A’s streams that paid off because of park and opponent.

Joe Pisapia recommended dropping Jake Burger after the Marlins sent him to AAA with a .190/.231/.330 slash and an ugly 32-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 games. Pisapia noted the strikeout rate spike but pointed out Burger’s barrel rate and hard-hit metrics are still in line with his White Sox days, suggesting the power is intact once he irons out mechanical issues. The BABIP sits at .239 and he is hitting just .125 against fastballs (xBA .233), hinting at some bad luck. Pisapia intends to scoop Burger back up for a minimal FAAB bid—"two bucks" in deep leagues—when he is recalled, betting that the six-week reset fixes the timing and unleashes the 30-homer upside.

Joe Pisapia said fantasy managers should be ready to trade Mike Trout the next time he strings together a few good games. Pisapia pointed out that Trout is back on the IL with a bone-bruise in the same surgically-repaired left knee and is hitting under .200 despite the early power. He reminded listeners that Trout has now missed significant time in three straight seasons, so any hot streak will likely be the last window to recoup value before another injury or prolonged slump strikes. The advice: treat Trout like a depreciating asset—flip him for a healthier, less volatile star as soon as his stat line rebounds and his name value spikes.

After initially leaning under, Pisapia decided to back Kansas City over 3.5 runs versus Shane Baz. The number felt "too low" given Bobby Witt Jr.’s 21-game hit streak and Vinnie Pasquantino finally barreling baseballs again. He conceded Baz has looked sharp but believes the Rays’ middle-relief corps is exploitable. With Kauffman’s summer weather creeping in, Pisapia expects the Royals to hang four runs by the seventh inning.

Joe Pisapia backed Anthony Santander to go deep again Thursday, highlighting that the switch-hitter has homered in two of his last three games and is finally squaring balls up after pressing during his first month in Toronto. Pisapia said he watched every plate appearance last night and noted multiple 105-mph exit velocities, a sign Santander’s timing has clicked. With the swing path built for Rogers Centre’s right-field porch and a middling opposing lefty on the mound, Pisapia likes Santander’s HR prop at anything north of +400 and would consider him a low-owned DFS one-off for those chasing power.

Joe Pisapia said the latest knee tweak is a flashing red light that this may be the high-water mark for Mike Trout’s 2025 value. Trout was pulled mid-game after jamming his knee on first base, and although the team downplayed the severity, Pisapia reminded listeners that similar ‘minor’ issues snowballed into lengthy absences the past two seasons. Trout is still hitting under .200 despite the early homer binge, and at age 33 the Angels have already hinted he will not play every day. Pisapia is taking Trout off all of his home-run prop cards and urged season-long managers in redraft to shop him now—while the multi-homer streak is fresh in everyone’s mind—rather than risk holding an elite name who could miss another two-plus months once the next flare-up hits.

Pisapia’s first team-total play was Texas over its posted number (–108) against left-hander Jeffrey Springs. He pointed to the Rangers’ top-five wRC+ versus southpaws and the heart of the order—Seager, Langford, Garcia—owning ISOs north of .225 against changeup-heavy arms like Springs. With Globe Life Field boosting right-handed power and a middling Rays bullpen behind Springs, Pisapia expects Texas to score early and often, clearing the total.

Joe Pisapia recommended betting the over on Justin Verlander’s 6.5 strikeout prop against Colorado. The Rockies lead MLB in team strikeout rate, and Oracle Park gives the veteran a roomy backdrop to attack hitters with his rising four-seamer. Pisapia framed the matchup as a "way-back machine" game where even a 42-year-old Verlander can pile up Ks thanks to Colorado’s league-worst contact ability.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to flip Tony Gonsolin immediately after the flashy return. Pisapia acknowledged the nine strikeouts, but noted it came against a Marlins team that whiffs at the second-highest rate in baseball. He reminded listeners that, outside of brief spurts, Gonsolin has been “just a jag” for most of his career. With Giolito also available in many leagues and carrying a higher ceiling, Pisapia suggested packaging Gonsolin while his value is inflated and targeting a more stable hitter or arm in return before regression hits.

Pisapia told the chat he is "buying Anthony Santander everywhere." While many managers are frustrated after Santander’s slow April, Pisapia pointed out that the outfielder has now homered on back-to-back days and historically heats up once the calendar flips to May. Given the underlying power track record (30-plus homers in two of the last three seasons) and the fact that his barrel rate is already climbing, Pisapia believes this is the last chance to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat at a discount before the hot streak fully arrives.

Joe Pisapia said managers looking for a streamer should fire up Justin Verlander against Colorado. The Rockies have yet to score 100 total runs this season and rank near the bottom of every major offensive category. With San Francisco’s park working in Verlander’s favor and Colorado’s bats ice-cold away from Coors, Pisapia believes this is the perfect soft landing spot while the veteran builds up. He framed it as a low-risk, high-reward start that could help in both ratio and strikeout categories for weekly leaguers and DFS players alike.

Joe Pisapia tagged Anthony Santander for another home-run call, saying the veteran finally looks locked in after adjusting to a new city and fresh contract. Pisapia watched every plate appearance Tuesday and said Santander "hit that ball country-mile hard," citing back-to-back barrels at 104 mph and 107 mph. Now that his launch angle has crept back to the 13-degree range that fueled 95 RBI last season, Pisapia is confident the slugger’s May OPS spike (up 140 points over April) is real. He advised bettors to ride Santander HR props and DFS managers to squeeze him into lineups before his salary climbs.

Joe Pisapia’s top strikeout prop of the day is Justin Verlander over 6.5 punch-outs against Colorado. The Rockies lead MLB in strikeout rate on the road (24.8%) and have yet to reach 100 total runs, producing a 60 wRC+ away from Coors. Verlander’s pitch count climbed to 92 last time out and his four-seam velocity ticked up to 94.3 mph, suggesting the veteran is stretched to go 6-7 innings. Pisapia forecasted a vintage K day—projecting 7-8 strikeouts given Colorado’s 30% whiff rate versus four-seamers and curveballs—and labeled the over playable to –130 juice.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to package Tony Gonsolin in trades after the righty fanned nine Marlins in his 2025 debut. While Gonsolin racked up 17 whiffs and a gaudy 40% whiff rate with every secondary pitch clearing 40%, Pisapia reminded listeners that Miami owns one of baseball’s highest strikeout rates and called the performance an ideal sell-high window. He labeled Gonsolin “just a guy” over the long haul, ranking him behind Lucas Giolito among recent pickups, and suggested flipping him now before his next start normalizes the strikeout pace.

Joe Pisapia recommended streaming Justin Verlander in all season-long formats and rolling him out in DFS for his start versus Colorado. Pisapia pointed out that the Rockies have yet to score 100 total runs this season – dead last in MLB – and their wRC+ away from Coors sits near the 60 mark. Facing a punchless lineup that strikes out 24% of the time on the road, Verlander should have a soft landing to build length and rack up Ks as he rounds into form. Pisapia framed it as the ideal ‘spot start’ for managers who have been holding Verlander on the wire or bench, projecting 6–7 strong innings with quality-start upside.

Joe Pisapia urged listeners to scoop up Eduardo Rodriguez immediately after the lefty was tagged for eight earned by the Mets. Despite the blow-up, Rodriguez owns underlying numbers that scream positive regression: xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all lower than his surface ERA, his strikeout rate has spiked, and Statcast shows healthier whiff rates on every pitch. Pisapia emphasized that Citi Field’s loaded lineup is an outlier matchup and that Rodriguez’s fastball and sinker are posting 30 % K-rates while sliders and changeups lag, creating a quirky but fixable pitch-split profile. The poor box score should make him cheaper in trade talks or even available on waivers, making now the ideal window to pounce before the correction comes.

Joe Pisapia’s best bet of the day is the Aaron Judge home-run prop at +210 and a parlay with the Yankees money line (+340) in Camden Yards. Judge owns a .317 average, 46 homers, 98 RBI and 106 runs in just 109 career games against Baltimore, and he faces rookie left-hander Cade Povich plus a bullpen Pisapia called "a joke." He suggested sprinkling on ancillary markets—RBI and total bases—but emphasized the homer prop as the core play given Judge’s career 12.1 % HR/PA rate versus the Orioles. Bettors looking for extra exposure can ladder alternate total bases, but Pisapia’s primary advice is to ride the plus-money long-ball number while it is still above 2-to-1.

Joe Pisapia called Cole Ragans a rare chance to acquire an ace during the season. His surface 4.40 ERA hides elite indicators: 2.45 xERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.55 xFIP and a 36 % strikeout rate paired with a career-best walk clip. Ragans has tinkered with a new knuckle-curve while the slider, change and four-seam all post higher whiff rates than 2024. A minor groin tweak might cost him one start, creating the perfect buying window. Pisapia recommended packaging a mid-tier bat plus a back-end starter to pry him loose before he repeats last year’s second-half dominance.

Joe Pisapia advised treating Matt McLain as a classic buy-low after a miserable April (.111 over the last two weeks, .190 BABIP). While the 32 % strikeout rate is ugly, his 52 % hard-hit rate and elite barrels remain, and he already has four homers and four steals—a 20/20 pace. Statcast shows he is crushing fastballs by quality (.288 xAVG vs .184 actual) but lifting too many balls with little pull (≈20° launch angle, 10 % pulled air). Pisapia expects those timing issues to normalize once rust wears off following his lost 2024 season and suggests offering a fringe top-150 piece to land him before the BABIP corrects.

Pisapia’s second wager is the Padres moneyline against San Francisco with Nick Pivetta drawing Logan Webb. Joe acknowledged Webb’s sub-2.00 ERA but prefers the home side because Pivetta has been "brilliant" to start 2025 – 1.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 28 % strikeout rate through his first four Padres outings – and Petco Park neutralizes the Giants’ limited power. He expects San Diego’s right-heavy lineup (Tatis, Machado, Campusano) to scratch out enough support against Webb’s declining ground-ball rate (down to 49 % from 57 % last year). With the Padres available near even money, Joe labeled it his favorite side play of the slate.

Joe Pisapia said the best prop on Wednesday is Garrett Crochet OVER 6.5 strikeouts at +128. Pisapia admitted Crochet’s last turn was his first real stumble of 2025, but reminded listeners the outing before that he fanned 10 in six shut-out frames and still owns a 1.08 ERA with a 34 % K-rate across the young season. He pointed out that Toronto had not even named a starter when sportsbooks posted the line – meaning the Blue Jays will either be scrambling with Bowden Francis or rolling a bullpen game – while the Red Sox have Crochet fully rested on his normal five-day routine. With Fenway’s forecast calling for 58 ° and heavy marine air, he expects Boston to let Crochet work deep, projecting 95–100 pitches and 8–9 punch-outs. Pisapia added you can parlay the strikeout over with a Red Sox moneyline play for a near 3-to-1 payout if you want extra juice.