Joe Raineri warned against betting Paul Skenes at +240 for NL Cy Young, citing rising red-flags in the rookie’s last three outings: increased barrel rate, a spike to 3.82 ERA over that span, and visible fatigue after a heavy college-to-pro workload that stretched into last September. Raineri reminded listeners he questioned the Pirates’ decision to push Skenes deep late last year and views the current wobble as confirmation. With 20-plus starts still ahead, he expects Pittsburgh to manage innings, limiting Skenes’ counting stats. Raineri advised reallocating those tickets to Yoshinobu Yamamoto at +460 or Hunter Greene at 7-1, who both have cleaner health outlooks and playoff-contending teams.

Raineri told listeners to pass on Shohei Ohtani’s +260 NL-MVP price and sprinkle Pete Alonso at 11-1 instead. He argued Ohtani’s number bakes in perfect health, yet even a two-week IL stint would ‘blow the market wide open’. Meanwhile Alonso’s first-month power binge (12 homers, .636 SLG) rivals Aaron Judge’s AL production and keeps him inside shouting distance if Mets pitching steadies. Raineri added that the National League race is far tighter than the American, so bettors should chase ceiling, not floor. He also mentioned Kyle Tucker and Corbin Carroll as longer-shot considerations but made Alonso his primary value target because his counting stats can survive a Mets cold spell.

Joe Raineri called Philadelphia a bargain at –150 against Arizona. He trusts left-hander Jesus Luzardo, who owns a 1.73 ERA and 3.04 xFIP over 36⅓ innings, far more than Merrill Kelly and an injury-riddled Diamondbacks bullpen that Raineri labeled “a hot mess.” Arizona’s sticks have produced only 3.4 runs per game over their last seven and grade poorly versus southpaws, while the Phillies bring both a rested relief corps and the bats of Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber back home after a late Washington start. Because the Snakes’ only path is jumping Luzardo early, Raineri prefers the full-game Phillies moneyline, believing their bullpen edge seals it if the starters trade zeros.

Joe Raineri advised grabbing Atlanta on the first-five line even though Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers are laying –180 on the full-game side. Raineri noted Bryce Elder replacement Allan Winans—listed as ‘Holmes’ at some books—has quietly kept Atlanta in every start, limiting damage long enough for the Braves’ lineup to strike. He pointed out Yamamoto’s gaudy 1.06 ERA and 2.21 xFIP but reminded listeners the Dodgers are merely .500 on the road and are opening a 10-game East Coast swing that is traditionally a flat spot for L.A. With 76-degree temps, a mild cross-wind and Atlanta’s offense historically hotter at Truist Park, Raineri expects the Braves to be leading after five innings before bullpen variance kicks in.

Joe Raineri called Atlanta a classic buy-low while they sit under .500 and around 8-1 in the NL futures market. He argued the Braves’ ceiling is higher than what we’ve seen because marquee pieces are on the way back—Ronald Acuna Jr. from the IL and Spencer Strider once his elbow and hamstring issues subside. Raineri trusts the Braves’ front office to add complementary bats the way it did with Jorge Soler during their last title run, so he wants tickets in hand before the roster is healthy and the odds shorten.

Joe Raineri warned bettors to stay away from New York’s current 5-1 NL-pennant price. He believes the club’s early 21-win pace masked fundamental flaws: an over-performing bullpen that is now banged up, a rotation he rates below both the Phillies and Braves, and an offense that opened the year unable to score. With injuries already eroding that thin pitching depth, Raineri thinks their true talent level is closer to the middle of the playoff pack, making the short number a clear stay-away rather than a buy.

Joe Raineri said the +140 NL-pennant price on the Dodgers is unplayable after only one month of baseball. He reminded listeners that last season’s 106-win expectation still produced lengthy cold stretches once injuries hit, and you would have tied up money for six months to get a small return. Because L.A. will lay -200 or steeper in most individual matchups, Raineri argued the only real value is selectively fading them game-to-game when a capable opponent is priced as a $2 underdog or better. In his view, bettors should pass on any Dodgers futures and instead circle calendar spots where the market over-inflates their money-line price.