Joey P took OVER 3,875.5 passing yards (–114) for Dak Prescott, projecting a 4,500-yard season. His case: Prescott enters the ‘good year’ of his alternating-production pattern, the Cowboys added outside speed (he name-dropped George Pickens alongside CeeDee Lamb), and Dallas lacks a proven bell-cow runner, pushing them toward a pass-heavy script. At roughly 228 yards per game to hit the over, Joey views the number as 600 yards too low.

Joey P is smashing UNDER 1,400.5 rushing yards for Saquon Barkley. Barkley racked up nearly 400 total touches last season—historically a red-alert threshold that leads to sharp production dips the following year (Christian McCaffrey and others cited). Joey expects Barkley to miss four-to-six games, a pattern we’ve seen before, and stressed that the over/under is set almost 150 yards above Barkley’s median healthy season. The combination of injury risk and negative workload regression makes the under a ‘severe’ value in his eyes.

Joey P took Baker Mayfield over 3,825.5 regular-season passing yards at –114, calling the number "cake." Mayfield threw for 4,500 last season despite learning a new system and dealing with mid-year injuries to Chris Godwin. With Mike Evans re-signed and second-rounder Ricky Pearsall adding YAC ability, Joey believes Mayfield repeating 4K is the floor. Even mild regression would still clear the posted line by 175-plus yards, so he rated it his favorite NFC South player prop.

Joey P likes Atlanta to eclipse 7.5 wins but is timing the market instead of laying the current –130 juice. He plans to watch the Week-1 home matchup with Tampa. If the Falcons drop that opener—"even in a close game"—he expects public over-reaction to flip the price to plus money. At that point he will bet the over, trusting Michael Penix Jr. and a favorable NFC South schedule to get Atlanta to at least eight victories. The strategy lets him ride his bullish season outlook while squeezing extra value out of a likely one-week swing.