John Hasslebauer cautioned listeners not to fire on Brooks Koepka’s current 40-1 U.S. Open futures, calling the four-time major winner "unbettable" until books drift beyond 60-1. Hasslebauer admitted Koepka’s U.S. Open resume—two wins and a 67.4 scoring average on USGA tracks—makes him dangerous if the ‘old Brooks’ resurfaces, but argued there is zero evidence it will. Koepka has failed to crack the top 20 in any LIV start since February and ranked outside the top 50 in driving accuracy and GIR at Valhalla. Hasslebauer still respects Koepka’s strategic mastery of USGA setups—"nobody is better at pacing a round and understanding a bogey won’t kill you"—but believes the books are clinging to reputation. His actionable advice: monitor Monday re-opens; if public apathy lets Koepka drift into the 60-80-1 range, then pounce for a small outright sprinkle, otherwise pass.

John Hasslebauer warned listeners to steer clear of Tom Hoge at Colonial or any Texas stop, calling him “a Ponzi scheme in Texas.” Although Hoge is a TCU alum and the narrative always touts his course fit on positional layouts where accuracy matters, Hasslebauer pointed out that Hoge has repeatedly underperformed during the Texas swing. After digging into his historical splits, Hasslebauer found zero top-20 finishes in the last four Lone Star starts and noted that even on short courses, Hoge loses nearly a stroke per round with the flatstick. Hasslebauer said he nearly clicked Hoge at 55-1 but pulled the bet after seeing the continued Texas struggles and advised DFS players and bettors to fade him in outrights and matchups this week.

John Hasslebauer said Lucas Glover deserves a spot on outright cards at Colonial because he fits the course-history trend that has predicted nine of the last ten winners. Glover owns a T8 and T12 in his last three starts at Hogan Alley, satisfying the "top-10 within the previous three years" box that Hasslebauer believes is almost mandatory here. Pair that with the post-renovation emphasis on accuracy and precise wedges—areas where Glover has quietly excelled during his late-career resurgence—and Hasslebauer thinks the veteran has real win equity in the 50-1 range the market is hanging. He advised bettors to grab a standard outright and consider the shorter ‘without Scheffler’ number because Glover’s fairway-first profile should play even better if the forecasted firm greens materialize.

John Hasslebauer sprinkled Michael Kim at 55-1 standard (40-1 without Scheffler) based on a Colonial quirk: nine of the last ten winners logged a top-10 here within the previous three years—a box Kim checks after last season’s T6. Although Kim’s recent form cooled after a month-long run of top-10s, Hasslebauer argued that the market is over-reacting. Kim still ranks sixth in fairways gained and eighth in proximity from 125-175 yards over his last 36 rounds, skills critical on a 7,200-yard par-70 that turns defensive if you miss the fairway. With the greens now a year older—reducing last season’s bounce-heavy randomness—Hasslebauer believes Kim’s positional play and wedge control give him real top-five equity at a price the public will ignore.

John Hasslebauer bet Tommy Fleetwood as his first click in the without-Scheffler market, noting that Fleetwood’s driving accuracy, elite mid-iron play, and consistent tee-to-green form are tailor-made for Colonial. Fleetwood has finished top-20 in eight of eleven starts this season, gaining 1.2 strokes per round tee-to-green, and has already proven the fit by contending at similar positional tracks like Harbour Town. Hasslebauer found it telling that Fleetwood voluntarily added this non-signature event to a crowded summer schedule, interpreting the move as confidence in his chances to grab a long-overdue PGA Tour win. At 20-1 without Scheffler—and with the course set up specifically to reward precision—Hasslebauer labeled Fleetwood a "no-argument play."

John Hasslebauer backed Daniel Berger at 25-1 standard (20-1 in the without-Scheffler market), calling Colonial "the perfect course" for Berger’s resurgent, well-rounded game. Berger already owns a win at Hogan Alley and currently ranks top-10 on Tour in fairways gained, proximity from 100-150 yards, and bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds—exactly what thrives on the post-restoration layout. Hasslebauer added that Berger’s short-game touch has quietly returned—he has gained strokes putting in six of his last seven starts—and he believes a victory is imminent given three straight top-20s against stronger fields. Expected dry, windy weather should keep the greens firm, enhancing the edge Berger’s controlled ball flight and past-champion comfort provide.