Middlekauff! likes Denver at 12-1 to win the AFC, framing them as a potential early-Russell-Wilson Seahawks redux. He envisions No. 12 pick Bo Nix managing the offense efficiently while Sean Payton leans on a defense loaded with speed at every level, including first-round Texas edge rusher Jonah Ellis flashing in preseason. Critics cite last year’s schedule of backup QBs, but Middlekauff! trusts the raw talent after seeing the pass rush and secondary pop on film. Add in Denver’s altitude-driven January home-field edge—historically a nightmare for Tom Brady and others—and he sees a realistic route to the AFC Championship if the Broncos snag the No. 2 seed or better. At double-digit odds, he believes the payoff outweighs the risk in a conference where only Kansas City is priced as a clear favorite.

Middlekauff! argued Saquon Barkley at 60-1 is one of the few non-quarterback MVP futures that is not a donation. He drew a direct comparison to Terrell Davis: a signature Super Bowl year followed by a 2,000-yard encore that snagged the award. If Philadelphia steamrolls to 15-16 wins, Middlekauff! can see Barkley posting a 20-TD, 1,800-yard season that forces voters to break QB tradition, especially with potential fatigue toward Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes. He acknowledged the ‘Tush Push’ might siphon some goal-line looks, but reminded listeners that Davis captured MVP despite sharing touches with a fullback on the goal line. The Eagles’ national profile and Barkley’s star power create the narrative runway needed for a long-shot ticket to stay alive deep into December.

John Middlekauff! pointed to Baker Mayfield at 25-1 on DraftKings as his favorite off-the-board MVP flyer. The path: Mayfield rides a loaded pass-catching group to a 46-TD breakout, Tampa wins the NFC South by multiple games, and narrative momentum snowballs around the former No. 1 pick’s career resurrection. Middlekauff! stressed that voters love redemption arcs when the raw counting stats are gaudy and noted Mayfield would be competing against voter fatigue for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. If the Buccaneers land the NFC’s No. 2 seed, he thinks Mayfield’s name recognition plus a statistical eruption would keep him firmly in the conversation despite longer preseason odds.

John Middlekauff! agreed the Jaguars could crater but volunteered Atlanta as an equally live candidate to draft inside the top-five. He noted the Falcons have lost multiple starting offensive linemen in the past 48 hours—one carted off, another out six-to-eight weeks—undercutting the one thing Arthur Smith’s offenses leaned on when they managed seven wins. Middlekauff! argued that if Kirk Cousins or Michael Penix misses any time behind that deteriorating front, a mediocre six-win projection could freefall to three victories in a hurry as veterans tune out a lame-duck staff. With futures markets still pricing Atlanta as a playoff dark horse, he believes their “fewest wins” odds are being mis-priced and should be hunted for value.