John Schwarb targeted Keith Mitchell at +5500 to be first-round leader. Mitchell owns the PGA Tour’s lowest opening-round scoring average this season, making him a Thursday specialist. Schwarb acknowledged Scheffler could also open hot but argued the payoff on Mitchell is far superior for a player who routinely posts red numbers out of the gate.

John Schwarb went back to Daniel Berger at +2200 after using him as a PGA Championship long-shot. Berger closed the PGA with a Sunday 68 (T33) and now returns to the site of his 2020 victory. Schwarb noted that Berger is still chasing his first win since a lengthy injury layoff but faces a weaker field this week while sitting tied as second choice behind Scheffler. The combination of trending form and proven course history makes Berger his top outright.

John Schwarb paired his FRL play with Denny McCarthy Top-10 +360, trusting the Tour’s short-game wizard on a layout where nobody owns course reps. With signature-event FedExCup points on the line, Schwarb sees McCarthy’s putting carrying him into late-Sunday contention.

John Schwarb played Denny McCarthy +4500 for FRL. McCarthy sits 35th in FedExCup points thanks to finishes like T5 at Genesis and T14 at Players. Schwarb noted McCarthy is one of the Tour’s best putters and his Round-1 scoring average is his lowest of any round this season, making him an ideal rabbit on a brand-new track.

John Schwarb fired at Harris English +9000, reasoning that Wissahickon is the type of "artistry" track where elite putting shines. English finished T12 at the Masters and routinely gains with the flat stick, giving him sneaky ceiling despite middling ball-striking.

John Schwarb selected Justin Thomas at +1800, calling him the "favorite hot hand" in a week with no course history. Thomas ended his victory drought at RBC Heritage and has rested since, positioning him to attack a fresh venue before tackling next week’s PGA Championship. Schwarb thinks Thomas’s confidence and elite approach play can overcome Wissahickon’s tricky green complexes.

John Schwarb fired on Poston/Mitchell at +2500 for First‑Round Leader. Mitchell tops the PGA Tour in opening‑round scoring average (67.1) and owns two career top‑6s at this event, while Poston is coming off a T11 at the RBC Heritage. Schwarb also likes the intangible chemistry of the "Sea Island Mafia" pals, which he says passes the Zurich’s ‘friends’ test that has mattered historically in team play.

John Schwarb grabbed Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin at +3500, reminding bettors that the all‑Canadian tandem finished 10th here last year and solo second in 2023. Although their recent individual form is lukewarm, Schwarb believes their proven synergy in this event—plus Taylor’s ability to catch fire with the putter—gives them real Sunday‑afternoon win equity at a healthy price.

John Schwarb favors J.T. Poston in a head-to-head matchup prop bet against Justin Rose (-120 odds). Schwarb believes Rose may experience a letdown after an exhausting Masters week, reducing his motivation. Conversely, Poston holds strong motivation (70th in FedEx Cup points) and exceptional history at Harbour Town, recording four top-10s in his six appearances, making him a strong and motivated matchup play.

John Schwarb recommends targeting J.J. Spaun in first-round leader markets at Harbour Town due to his strong iron play, ranking second in strokes gained approach this season. Spaun has opened strongly several times this year, including a 66 at The Players. Although Schwarb isn't confident in backing Spaun to win outright, he views Spaun as undervalued in first-round leader betting because of his ability to jump out to quick starts on courses that emphasize iron play.

John Schwarb backs Denny McCarthy as his outright winner for Valero Texas Open due to his strong motivation from losing in a playoff at this event last year. Schwarb also points out McCarthy's excellent and consistent 2025 season thus far—no missed cuts in eight starts and earning five finishes of T16 or better. Coming off a T14 at the Players Championship, McCarthy is fresh and primed for a big redemption week.

John Schwarb confidently backed Scottie Scheffler at +375 to win the Houston Open, noting Scheffler needs this victory to reassert his No.1 ranking after Rory McIlroy's recent success including his Players Championship win. Scheffler has strong history at this venue, having recorded two runner-up finishes in recent years, indicating a comfort level at Memorial Park. Schwarb anticipates Scheffler will return to the winner's circle, setting up a significant battle ahead of Augusta.

John Schwarb recommended Corey Conners at +3500 odds to win the Valspar Championship, citing great value due to recent strong performances. Conners had an impressive T6 at The Players Championship and third-place finish at Bay Hill. Schwarb noted Conners ranks 28th in strokes-gained off-the-tee, a key success indicator at Copperhead, enhancing the appeal of the bet given the favorable odds compared to other books.

John Schwarb highlighted Laurie Canter as an intriguing dark horse option at THE PLAYERS Championship. Canter recently ascended into the top 50 of the world rankings after finishing runner-up at the South African Open, granting him entry into an elite event despite previously competing on LIV Golf. This momentum and confidence from recent form make him an interesting sleeper play for betting purposes or DFS lineups, with potential market undervaluation given his lesser-known status among casual golf followers.

John Schwarb pointed out Scottie Scheffler as a prime candidate for continued success at TPC Sawgrass in THE PLAYERS Championship. Scheffler became the first back-to-back Players champion last year and now aims to become just the second golfer alongside Jack Nicklaus (1974, '76, and '78) to win the event three times. Historical context provided shows the rarity and significance of a three-peat in PGA Tour events, as it hasn't happened since Steve Stricker's run at the John Deere Classic from 2009 to 2011. Given Scheffler's recent dominant form and clear comfort level on Pete Dye's challenging stadium course layout, there's strong evidence to support betting or DFS actions around him.