Johnny Venezia pointed out Aaron Nola’s bizarre even‑year/odd‑year split and said 2024 is tracking like another rough campaign. Nola has opened with a 6.65 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and a career‑worst 9.2 % barrel rate. Although the Phillies’ offense should secure him wins, Venezia cautioned that the mounting hard contact could leave fantasy managers saddled with a 4.00‑plus ERA. He rated the panic level at 6/10—high enough to shop Nola while the name value still commands interest but not yet a total drop candidate.

Johnny Venezia said last year’s renaissance may have been the last hurrah for Chris Sale. Through mid‑April the left‑hander owns a 6.63 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and has seen his strikeout rate fall from 32.1 % to 27.3 %. The hard‑hit rate has climbed to 35.1 %, and the whiff rate on his signature slider has cratered from 42.7 % to 36 %. Given Sale’s extensive injury history and age‑36 season, Venezia set his panic meter at 7.5/10 and recommended exploring trades before more fantasy managers price in the inevitable regression.

Johnny Venezia put Trea Turner on his panic list, noting that the shortstop’s fantasy value craters when he is not getting on base. Turner is slashing .217/.308 with only one homer and four steals, and his hard‑hit rate has plunged to 30.2 % compared to his career norms. A 79 wRC+ in a stacked Phillies lineup underscores how rarely he is setting the table for run scoring. Venezia pegged his personal panic meter at 6.5 out of 10 and advised managers to treat Turner as a caution flag rather than a guaranteed buy‑low until the on‑base skills rebound.

Johnny Venezia said fantasy managers should be on alert with Rafael Devers because the early skills simply are not matching the draft‑day price. Devers is sitting on a .228 batting average with just one homer and a career‑worst 31 % strike‑out rate. His 98 wRC+ is the lowest he has ever posted through mid‑April, which Venezia attributed to either age‑related decline or a tweak in approach. While the exit‑velocity readings remain strong, Venezia warned that drafters expecting a no‑doubt 30‑homer anchor may need to temper expectations or explore trade offers before the market fully adjusts.

Johnny Venezia warned that Luis Castillo no longer looks like a strikeout workhorse. Castillo carries a 4.22 ERA, a 19.1 % K‑rate that has trended downward, and a career‑high 43.1 % hard‑hit rate. His average fastball has slipped to 94.6 mph and has dropped roughly 1–1.5 mph in consecutive seasons. Venezia argued that 94 mph is borderline ‘batting‑practice speed’ for today’s hitters and pointed out that Logan Gilbert has already supplanted Castillo as Seattle’s staff ace. Fantasy managers expecting 220‑plus strikeouts and a sub‑3.00 ERA should realign expectations or consider trading before the name value erodes further.