Jon Hoefling said the lack of a rest‐day edge on the short week removes one common Thursday handicap, so he is defaulting to Ford Field’s atmosphere and Detroit’s urgency. With both clubs 6-plus wins and jockeying for playoff position, Hoefling believes the Lions—still stinging from recent slip-ups—are the side that 'has something to prove.' He laid the 3-point spread, calling the home-field edge decisive for bettors.

Jon Hoefling laid the points with Buffalo at -5.5, stressing that C.J. Stroud is 'unlikely to play once again' because he has not cleared concussion protocol. Hoefling believes Davis Mills will struggle to keep pace with Josh Allen, making it 'hard to imagine a world where Houston keeps this game within a touchdown.' He views the quarterback downgrade as the single biggest factor and expects Buffalo’s offense to control the game script.

Jon Hoefling said he is 'shocked' Philadelphia is still laying points and grabbed Detroit at +2.5. He pointed to the Eagles' week-to-week inconsistency on both sides of the ball and argued that the Lions' offense has been far more reliable at finishing drives. Hoefling expects Detroit to control tempo, believes the Lions can win outright by 'five or more', and views the current spread as free points for bettors willing to fade a shaky Philadelphia squad.