Jon Metler is backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to break out of his early-season home run drought tonight, attracted sharply by the long +775 odds being offered by BetMGM. Typically trading around +400, Guerrero Jr.'s unusually long odds reflect his slow start without a home run, driving the market price progressively higher. Metler emphasizes that projections still consider Guerrero Jr.'s true odds close to +450, creating tremendous betting value at +775. Guerrero has had decent historical success against Boston starter Tanner Houck, notching five hits including two doubles in 17 career at-bats, though he's not yet homered against him. Additionally, a favorable wind condition blowing out at 10 mph to right field at Fenway Park further bolsters the optimism. Given the massive discrepancy between market odds and projections, Metler eagerly recommends capitalizing on this inflated price.

Jon Metler identified strong value on Francisco Lindor to hit a home run at +550 odds versus the Marlins' Max Meyer. Meyer surrendered an alarmingly high 14 home runs in 57 innings pitched last year, and Lindor, batting from the left side, benefits from wind conditions blowing towards his pull side. Metler cited projections favoring Lindor's true odds closer to +350, signifying significant betting value. Lindor also enters hot, having homered against Miami earlier this series and tallying four hits against them recently, boosting Metler's confidence in this prop.

Jon Metler is recommending Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run at attractive odds of +425 against Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly. His reasoning highlights Henderson's power split, where last season Henderson hit 29 of his 35 home runs against right-handed pitching. Jon strategically picks this matchup due to Arizona's dome providing an optimal, climate-controlled environment beneficial for hitters, contrasting with colder conditions experienced elsewhere in MLB that may limit home run potential.

Jon Metler recommended betting Nick Castellanos (+550) to homer against Kyle Freeland. Castellanos historically hits lefties well, and Freeland, a lefty, struggles against right-handed hitters. Additional favorable conditions include wind blowing out 11 mph towards left (Castellanos' pull side). Metler also noted Castellanos already has three career homers against Freeland, supporting the price advantage he sees (+550, compared to his projection closer to +350). Given Castellanos' matchup history, conditions, and clear pricing edge, Metler sees this as an ideal home run play tonight.

Jon Metler sees strong value in backing Triston Casas at +900 odds to hit a home run against Baltimore. Despite Casas' rough start (1-for-17) to the season, Metler emphasized the inflated price and Casas' genuine elite power upside. Casas faces Zach Eflin, who has a history of giving up homers, in a hitters' park (Camden Yards) with 13 mph winds blowing out to left field. Even acknowledging Casas' recent slump, Metler strongly believes this massive price presents exceptional betting value considering Casas' raw power potential in a favorable hitting environment.