Jon Warner cautioned that drafters are still paying a Superflex premium on Daniel Jones in regular Best Ball rooms. He reminded listeners that in Jones’s last full season with the Giants, the top three wideouts—Darius Slayton (724 yards), Richie James (569), and Isaiah Hodgins (350)—all failed to clear four receiving touchdowns, a sign that Jones struggles to elevate pass-catchers even when his team wins (they took a wildcard game that year). Warner thinks that brief Superflex smash window has created a lingering 'halo effect' now pushing Jones inside the top-120 picks in single-QB formats. With Anthony Richardson offering a far higher rushing ceiling at a similar cost, Warner moved Jones behind rookies like Bo Nix in his rankings, is fading him in one-QB drafts, and will bet any season-long passing-TD prop north of 18.5 under the assumption that Indianapolis leans on Richardson by mid-season.

Jon Warner outlined why he expects the Colts to hand the keys to Anthony Richardson immediately after their Week-11 bye. He projects Indianapolis to stumble to something like a 5-5 record through a front-half slate that includes the Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, Cardinals, Steelers and Falcons—games in which he says the Colts will be betting underdogs at least six times. That middling start plus two full weeks of prep time makes the bye the natural pivot point away from veteran Daniel Jones. Warner noted the back-half schedule (at Kansas City, vs Houston, two meetings with Jacksonville, plus Seattle and San Francisco) is loaded with shoot-out or negative-script spots that accentuate Richardson’s dual-threat fantasy ceiling. He is therefore betting any "Week-17 starter" props in Richardson’s favor, moving the rookie up his Best Ball board as a late-season hammer, and would smash the over on any season-long start total set below seven.

Jon Warner viewed the 699.5 receiving-yard prop on Travis Kelce as a clear over bet and a screaming value at his current 9th/10th-round Best Ball ADP (pick 113). Warner reminded listeners that Kelce still put up 820 yards last season despite Kansas City’s overall offensive lull. He believes the addition of more vertical weapons—Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and rookie Xavier Worthy—will boost drive efficiency, opening wider passing lanes for Kelce and stabilizing his weekly floor. Because the line sits nearly 120 yards below Kelce’s 2023 output and 200-plus below his three-year average, Warner is smashing the higher on 699.5 in Pick’Em cards and drafting Kelce anytime he slides past Round 8, confident the future Hall-of-Famer has another 800-yard campaign in his range of median outcomes.

After expecting a four-digit projection, Jon Warner was stunned to find Calvin Ridley’s season-long receiving prop at only 899 yards—barely above veteran chain-mover Adam Thielen and a full 125 yards below the next WR tier in his model. Warner argued the modest number reflects serious concerns: Tennessee’s QB room is still unsettled between Will Levis and a 36-year-old veteran, new OC Nick Holz comes from a run-balanced Raiders scheme, and the Titans added slot magnet Keenan Allen to siphon volume. Ridley’s 22% target share in Jacksonville translated to just 76.6 yards per game; a similar share on a lower-tempo Titans offense would leave him needing career-best efficiency to beat the prop. Warner is shorting the 899.5 number in Pick’Em cards and has moved Ridley outside his top-75 Best Ball ranks, preferring cheaper perimeter options like Jauan Jennings who carry similar median yardage but cost four rounds less.

Jon Warner called the 724.5 rushing-yard line on Alvin Kamara "laughably low." Kamara ran for 950 yards last season despite missing three games, averaging 63 yards per contest and clearing the posted number by Week 13. Warner compared the prop to Christian McCaffrey’s 1-for-1 hybrid role, noting that New Orleans projects for top-10 offensive plays with Derek Carr in Year 2 and an improved line anchored by first-round tackle Taliese Fuaga. Even if Kamara’s carry share dips from last year’s 55% to 45%, simple volume math still lands him around 800 yards at his career-low 4.0 YPC. With no competition added besides day-three rookie Jayden Daniels, Warner is betting the higher on 724.5 and aggressively scooping Kamara at his Round-6 Best Ball ADP, labeling him a “CMClite arbitrage” for drafters who miss on the top tier.

Jon Warner warned drafters to steer clear of Tyrone Tracy Jr. at his mid-round Sprint ADP. Tracy’s 2023 Purdue production was volume-driven—4.9 yards per carry and only five runs of 20+ yards—and Warner expects that volume to dry up once a more traditional early-down hammer like Cam Skattebo shows better in camp. Warner noted Tracy is a converted wideout who still struggles in pass protection, a flaw that costs rookies snaps in real NFL games no matter how explosive they look in space. Because high-value touches (goal-line and third-down reps) are likely to funnel elsewhere, Tracy would need multiple breakaway plays each week to pay off, something Warner called ‘a low-probability bet you’re being asked to draft at ceiling.’ He has Tracy two full rounds lower in his personal ranks.

Jon Warner said Cam Skattebo is one of the best values in Underdog’s Sprint right now. Warner argued the former Arizona State workhorse checks every box coaches care about: short-yardage finishing, goal-line power, pass protection, and soft hands in the screen game. Those ‘high-value touches’ mean Skattebo can deliver weekly spike weeks even if he opens the season in a committee. Warner added that NFL staffs tend to fall in love with backs who can keep the quarterback clean—exactly the skill set that earns unexpected three-down snaps late in the year when best-ball playoff weeks matter most. With drafters chasing sexier satellite types two or three rounds earlier, Warner is happy scooping Skattebo at his current ADP and letting the volume come to him.

Jon Warner called MarShawn Lloyd the forgotten back of 2023 rookie fever and a screaming value in the 17th round of Sprint drafts. Warner reminded listeners that Lloyd was pushed into the 120s last summer on raw athleticism alone, then cooled when USC’s offense sputtered. Now he lands in Green Bay behind 26-year-old Josh Jacobs, who is coming off a 3.5-yards-per-carry season and nearly 400 touches worth of tread. Warner expects Matt LaFleur to revive the two-back rotation that allowed both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to be fantasy relevant, noting the Packers have finished top-12 in neutral-situation rush rate in four of the last five seasons. If Jacobs misses time—or simply cedes goal-line work the way Jones once did—Lloyd’s 215-pound frame and 4.46 speed give him "league-winner contingency juice" at a near-free cost.

Jon Warner said Rico Dowdle is the exact kind of contingency bet that wins the Sprint’s late rounds. Warner argued Dowdle got a "raw deal" after averaging 4.6 yards per carry and a robust 2.95 yards after contact last season, only to watch Dallas flirt with washed veterans instead of re-signing him. He believes the Cowboys’ current depth chart—Deuce Vaughn, Royce Freeman, and rookie Nathaniel Peat—offers no real obstacle if an early-down hammer is needed. With Dallas ranking top-10 in red-zone rush rate the past three years, Warner sees a clear touchdown pathway should Dowdle resurface as Jerry Jones’s inevitable post-camp signing. Because Dowdle often goes undrafted, Warner recommended scooping him as a final-round lottery ticket in every best-ball portfolio.

Jon Warner questioned Josh Allen’s current 6.3 average draft slot in the Sprint and advised passing on him at that price. Warner noted the same ADP spike happened last year before correcting and argued the Sprint’s rotisserie playoff format still demands ceiling games, making the opportunity cost of skipping elite RBs and WRs too steep. In a 216-player pool you can grab starting backs like Tony Pollard in Round 6, something you forfeit if you spend that pick on a onesie. Buffalo’s neutral Week 16-18 schedule offers no clear matchup advantage, so Warner believes Allen belongs closer to the late-second round rather than the mid-first.