Jonathan Fuller labeled Rashod Bateman a negative-regression candidate. Bateman’s 2024 breakout hinged on nine touchdowns despite only 67 targets (two more than his rookie year) and no career highs in catch rate, YPC, or yards per route run. His average depth of target has risen each season, cementing him as Lamar Jackson’s deep threat but also making production boom-or-bust. With Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and newly signed DeAndre Hopkins ahead or alongside him, Fuller expects a capped 60-70 targets. PFF’s Expected Points model suggests a 638-yard, 5.8-TD season, well below last year’s 756/9 line. Fuller is fading Bateman in season-long formats, reserving interest for best-ball builds where the sporadic spike weeks auto-count.

Jonathan Fuller warned that Terry McLaurin’s WR6 season is unlikely to repeat. After never topping five touchdowns from 2020-23, McLaurin spiked to 13 scores in 2024, a classic red-zone outlier. Washington added Deebo Samuel via trade, drafted Jaylin Lane, retained Zach Ertz, and could see Luke McCaffrey expand his role, all of which siphon targets from McLaurin. Fantasy Life projects 1,044 yards and 7.9 TDs—solid but far below last year’s output. Fuller still values him as a starter but views the 2024 stat line as a ceiling, not a new norm.

Jonathan Fuller framed Tyreek Hill as a value because 2024’s dip can be traced to a mid-season wrist injury (screws were removed this spring) and Tua Tagovailoa missing eight games, not irreversible decline at age 31. Hill just clocked a 10.10-second 100-meter dash in the offseason, reinforcing that the trademark speed remains. Fantasy Life’s median projection has him comfortably clearing 1,000 yards with several more touchdowns than last year, and Fuller notes his proven 1,700-yard ceiling if the Dolphins stay healthy. Managers willing to ignore the age narrative can grab a discounted top-five upside wideout.

Jonathan Fuller said George Pickens is a slam-dunk positive-regression target after being dealt from the Steelers to the Cowboys. Pittsburgh sat 29th in pass attempts each of the last two years, while Dallas ranked 3rd in 2024 and 8th in 2023, chucking 138 more passes than the Steelers last season. Even as the clear No. 2 behind CeeDee Lamb, Pickens only needs a 17 % target share in an offense that should again flirt with 600 attempts to match last year’s ~100 targets; Fuller expects 20 % or better. Fantasy Life projections call for career highs across the board and a baseline top-24 WR finish with fringe WR1 upside. With an ADP outside the first 50 picks, Fuller is prioritizing Pickens in every season-long draft.

Jonathan Fuller reminded dynasty managers to comb the waiver wire and highlighted Hunter Renfrow as a sneaky pickup. After sitting out 2024, Renfrow joins a Panthers depth chart headlined by 35-year-old Adam Thielen and little else. Fuller believes even a lukewarm camp report could push Renfrow into immediate slot-heavy snaps, making him a zero-cost stash with real upside in full-PPR formats.

Jonathan Fuller labeled Quinshon Judkins a worthwhile gamble after his recent arrest and potential training-camp absence. The Browns rookie was a first-rounder in dynasty drafts, and Fuller noted that legal setbacks rarely derail backs of his talent. He is willing to part with two third-round picks—or a 2026 third plus a 2027 second—to secure Judkins before the hype cycle restarts closer to Week 1.

Jonathan Fuller recommended treating Rashee Rice’s looming suspension as a buying opportunity. Rice posted a 13.23 PPR points-per-game average and strong utilization metrics last season, proving he can command targets from Patrick Mahomes. Fuller stressed that a handful of missed games will not dent his long-term ceiling and urged dynasty managers to send out offers while the narrative is still negative.

Jonathan Fuller advised scooping up Jordan Addison from nervous managers worried about an expected 3–6 game suspension. Addison averaged 12.07 PPR points per game as a rookie, and Fuller believes a brief 2025 absence is irrelevant to his multi-year outlook. He suggested offering a future second-round pick or a fringe veteran starter to capitalize on the dip before the Vikings wideout is cleared and his value rebounds.

Jonathan Fuller called the 2025 rookie quarterback crop flat-out undervalued in superflex leagues and spotlighted Tyler Shough as the clearest arbitrage play. Shough’s rookie ADP routinely fell outside round two, yet any passer who strings together multiple starting seasons returns QB2 dynasty value. Fuller urged managers to spend late rookie picks or modest FAAB on Shough—along with fellow cheap upside bets Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe—because a successful camp battle could catapult their trade value overnight.

Jonathan Fuller argued the market is too low on Colston Loveland. In his rookie drafts Tyler Warren went 4–6 picks earlier even though Loveland is younger, was selected ahead of Warren in the actual NFL Draft, and has just as much—if not more—receiving upside. Fuller recommended drafting Loveland in the early second round or flipping Warren for Loveland plus a sweetener while the dynasty community still views the Bears rookie as the clear TE2 of the class.

Jonathan Fuller said RJ Harvey is his most-rostered rookie because the Broncos check every box for a committee back who scores fantasy points. Denver ranked near the top of the league in targets to running backs last season and still boasts a strong offensive line. Fuller is unfazed by the J.K. Dobbins signing, noting Harvey was never expected to handle 20 touches per week. As long as Sean Payton continues peppering backs in the passing game, Fuller believes Harvey can deliver PPR value that far exceeds his late-first rookie draft cost and urged dynasty managers to trade for him before preseason buzz pushes the price up.

Fuller pegged Goff as a negative-regression target after a career year that featured personal bests in TD passes, YPA, and completion percentage. Ben Johnson’s departure to Chicago creates uncertainty around Detroit’s offensive identity, and Fuller notes the Lions already have an elite run game that could hog goal-line touches. Dwain McFarland’s projections cited by Fuller have Goff at 4,200 yards but only 28 TDs, good for QB15 territory because he offers no rushing juice. While his current ADP (mid-QB2 range) bakes in some of that concern, Fuller cautions against expecting a repeat of 2024’s ceiling without Johnson calling plays.

Fuller warned that Mayfield’s QB5, career-best 2024 season (highs in YPA, TDs, completion rate, and rushing yards) is unlikely to repeat. The Buccaneers lost OC Liam Coen—whom Fuller credits for the breakout—to Jacksonville, replacing him with first-time play-caller Josh Grizzard. Even with a deep WR room and pass-catching backs, Fuller expects natural regression in Mayfield’s efficiency metrics and believes the scheme change widens his downside range. Despite that, Mayfield is still being drafted in the QB7-QB10 window, leaving ample room to disappoint if his TD rate or yardage slide back toward career norms.

Fuller argued that Stafford’s QB19 finish masks how close he is to a spike season. His 2024 TD rate was only 3.9% compared with 5.3% during his first three Rams seasons and 4.6% for his career. With 3,762 yards but just 24 TDs, Stafford’s fantasy value was torpedoed by poor red-zone luck. The Rams responded by importing Davante Adams, rookie TE Terrance Ferguson, and receiving back Jarquez Hunter, giving Sean McVay even more reason to lean pass. Fuller projects a simple reversion toward career TD efficiency—adding 4-6 scores—and notes a 30-plus TD outcome would vault Stafford into the top-10 despite his nonexistent rushing. Because he is being drafted outside the top-20 QBs, the cost/benefit profile is attractive.

Fuller identified Mahomes as a prime rebound candidate after two straight ‘just fine’ fantasy years (max 27 TDs, 4.5% TD rate, career-low YPA). From 2018-22 he averaged 38.4 TDs with a 6.5% TD rate, so Fuller sees plenty of room for upside if Kansas City’s pass game stretches the field as camp reports suggest. He pointed to a much stronger arsenal even if Rashee Rice serves a short suspension: first-round burner Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, a healthier Rice, Travis Kelce, and rookies Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith. Because Mahomes now goes at the back of the ‘elite’ tier, Fuller views the opportunity cost as the lowest in years and would buy if preseason usage confirms a more aggressive, down-field approach.

Jonathan Fuller said Stroud is one of the clearest positive-regression bets in 2025 after a sophomore slump that saw his YPA crash from 8.2 to 7.0, his TD rate dip from 4.6% to 3.8%, and his INT rate more than double to 2.3%. Fuller noted those declines coincided with injuries to skill players and Bobby Slowik’s now-scrapped scheme. Houston responded by hiring Nick Caley, signing Christian Kirk, and drafting wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to join Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz. Fuller argued that with only 32 starts on Stroud’s resume we should treat the 2023 rookie campaign as the more accurate baseline and that the bolstered supporting cast plus a new play-caller give him ‘wind at his back.’ Because ADP has him outside the top-12 QBs, managers can scoop him at a discount and profit if he bounces back to or exceeds his rookie efficiency.