Jonathan Von Tobe recommended betting Tampa Bay’s alternate win total over 10.5 at +165 instead of the standard 9.5. He cited an offense featuring Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and first-rounder Ameka Egbuka in a largely unchanged Josh Grizzard scheme plus a top-tier offensive line that remains sturdy even if Tristan Wirfs misses a few weeks. Von Tobe expects the defense to rebound from 19th in EPA to league-average and stressed Tampa’s 10th-easiest projected schedule within a weak NFC South. Those factors give the Buccaneers a clear path to 11+ victories, making the plus-money alternate line the superior play.

Jonathan Von Tobe advised passing on Bucky Irving at 20-1 to lead the NFL in rushing, saying the number is too short. While he acknowledged Irving’s explosiveness and the Buccaneers’ strong offensive line, he admitted, “I wanted more in the range of 40-1,” doubting Irving will maintain the 5-plus YPC needed to outpace the league’s elite volume backs. Without that higher payout he feels the wager lacks value.

Jonathan Von Tobe endorsed betting the season-long rushing-yards over on Bucky Irving at 1,000.5. Irving piled up 1,100 yards on 5.4 YPC last year despite only three starts, forcing 57 missed tackles, breaking 27 runs of 10+ yards, and averaging four yards after contact, per PFF. Von Tobe noted Tampa’s line grades as top-5 when fully healthy and should still be top-10 even if Tristan Wirfs misses a couple weeks, giving Irving ample runway. With the starting role locked in, an aggressive passing game to prevent stacked boxes, and a soft overall schedule, he called 1,001 yards “totally doable.”

Jonathan Von Tobe said 25-1 MVP odds on Baker Mayfield are worth a wager. He highlighted Mayfield’s elite efficiency—tied for 7th in PFF passing grade and 6th in EPA+CPOE composite last year—and two-season totals of 8,500 passing yards, 67.9% completions, and a 69-26 TD-INT line that ranks 4th in success rate. With passing-game coordinator Josh Grizzard promoted to OC, Von Tobe expects schematic continuity, possibly more downfield aggression, and continued chemistry with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin behind a top-10 offensive line. Add the NFC South’s weakness and the league’s 10th-easiest schedule, and he believes Mayfield has a realistic narrative path to an MVP run at long odds.