Shepardson backed the Over 2.5 Walks Allowed for Erick Fedde on Underdog (1.18x), noting the right‑hander’s control has vanished: 11 walks in 21 innings (13.3 BB/9) and at least three free passes in each of his last three starts (3, 4, 4). Facing a patient Braves lineup and with an 8.5‑run total in play, Shepardson expects Fedde’s shaky command to persist.

For player props, Shepardson took the "Higher" side on Juan Soto 1.5 Total Bases at Sleeper (2.24x) and Underdog (1.17x). Baseball Savant shows Soto with a .579 SLG (.676 xSLG) and three home runs in 51 career plate appearances against Aaron Nola. Given Nola’s current 6.65 ERA and elevated hard‑contact profile, Shepardson expects Soto to tally at least two bases tonight.

Shepardson played the "Higher" on Pete Alonso 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (1.80x at Sleeper, same line at Underdog). Alonso has torched Aaron Nola for six homers, three doubles and a .731 slugging percentage in 57 career PA (17 hits overall). He’s also scorching in 2025 with 27 hits, 24 RBIs and a .346/.453 slash across just 95 plate appearances. That mix of current form and dominant BvP makes the over a strong value.

Shepardson recommended building Mets stacks around Juan Soto because Aaron Nola owns a bloated 6.65 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 1.66 HR/9 through four starts, with near‑neutral platoon splits (.322 wOBA to LHB, .313 to RHB) dating back to 2024. Soto himself is rolling with a .385 OBP, .179 ISO and 133 wRC+ in 2025, and he’s 10‑for‑38 with three doubles and three homers off Nola lifetime. With the Mets favored at -120 in an 8‑run total at Citi Field, Soto profiles as a cornerstone spend‑up for DFS lineups.

Calling Max Meyer a "DraftKings‑only GPP dart," Shepardson pointed to a 27.6 K%, 2.97 SIERA and 58.1% ground‑ball rate through 24 innings. The Reds are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (91) with a 23.4% K rate versus righties, and tonight’s total sits at a pitcher‑friendly 7.5. Even though Miami is a slight +115 underdog, Meyer’s combination of whiffs, worm‑burners and a weak opponent makes him an ideal low‑rostered SP2 for tournaments.

Josh Shepardson said Hunter Brown should anchor cash‑game lineups tonight, citing ace‑level underlying numbers through four 2025 starts (1.50 ERA, 3.04 SIERA, 0.83 WHIP, 25.3 K%, 58.3 GB%, 115 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 116 Pitching+). He added that Toronto ranks just 22nd in wRC+ (92) against right‑handed pitching and strikes out 22.7% of the time. Vegas backs the spot with Houston sitting -140 in a game total of only 7.5 runs, reinforcing Brown’s win equity and run‑prevention outlook.

Shepardson ranked Spencer Schwellenbach second on the slate, noting a 2.55 ERA, 3.13 SIERA, 0.85 WHIP and swing‑and‑miss rates that jump off the page (14.6 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%, 111 Stuff+). Atlanta is a healthy -185 favorite, boosting win odds, but the 8.5‑run total and a middling Cardinals lineup keep him a tick below Brown in cash. Still, the 23‑year‑old’s 54.5% ground‑ball rate and 23.4% strikeout clip give him tournament‑winning upside at a modest salary.