Josh Shepardson advised targeting Jaylen Warren around his 86.7 overall (RB31) ADP in half-PPR and PPR formats. He acknowledged rookie power back Kaleb Johnson is penciled in for early-down work but stressed Johnson’s limited collegiate receiving profile (0.13 career targets per route run) leaves the passing-game role wide open. Warren has already proven himself there, finishing 2024 tied for 19th in target share (10.3%), with 3.0 targets per game and a 1.50 yards-per-route-run rate that ranked 19th among 86 qualified backs. Shepardson reminded readers that when healthy in 2023, Warren was even better through the air (13.4% share, 0.29 TPRR, 4.1 targets per game). Efficiency as a runner dipped last season, but his 2023 tape (5.26 YPC, 8.1% explosive run rate, 0.34 missed tackles per attempt) shows there’s more upside if he regains form or if Johnson falters. With Aaron Rodgers under center—a quarterback who historically feeds his running backs—and Pittsburgh resting Warren with the starters in their first preseason game, Shepardson sees a safe bye-week RB2 floor and a path to every-week RB2 value at a modest draft cost.

Josh Shepardson said James Conner is a prime draft target at his 48.0 overall (RB19) ADP because the veteran just posted his best yardage season and played a career-high 16 games in 2024 while monopolizing the Cardinals backfield. Shepardson pointed to Conner’s top-tier rushing metrics among 72 qualified backs: 68.4 rushing yards per game (10th), 4.64 yards per carry (14th), 0.29 missed tackles forced per attempt (2nd) and a 6.8% explosive run rate (t-8th). Conner also produced in the passing game, ranking 21st in target share (10.2%), 12th in receptions (47) and 7th in yards per route run (1.75) among 86 backs with 50+ routes. His 14.4 half-PPR points per game tied for RB14 last year, yet drafters can now get him five spots cheaper. With no credible threat behind him and Arizona still treating him as a bell-cow, Shepardson expects a high floor with legitimate RB1 upside, making Conner an ideal anchor for managers who load up on other positions early or a value RB2 for balanced builds.

Mooney’s shoulder injury will sideline him "a few weeks," but Atlanta hasn’t ruled him out for Week 1. His ADP has fallen accordingly, and Shepardson calls him an "appealing bench option" who can deliver flex weeks once healthy, making him a savvy late-round flier.

A torn ACL and MCL suffered last October make Aiyuk a strong candidate for the PUP list—mandatory four-game absence. Shepardson cautions that drafters counting on early-season production should pass, as Aiyuk’s recovery timeline and post-injury form are major question marks.

Shepardson highlighted reports that Godwin underwent a second ankle surgery in the spring and "could miss some regular-season games." Even once active, Godwin may need a ramp-up period before resembling his old self. Shepardson recommends downgrading or outright fading him at current ADP given the health and rust concerns.

Worthy’s ADP climbed roughly half a round this week, and Shepardson expects another jump "if or when" Rashee Rice receives an NFL suspension. With the uncertainty around Rice, Shepardson suggests scooping Worthy now before the market fully bakes in a potential No. 1 role in Patrick Mahomes’ offense.

Chubb’s ADP bump is tied to teammate Joe Mixon’s mysterious foot injury, but Shepardson warned that the veteran "might not have anything left in the tank." He advises managers not to chase the market move, doubting Chubb can translate any temporary workload spike into meaningful fantasy production.

Shepardson said Tank Bigsby "appears in line to open the year as Jacksonville’s top ball-carrying option," projecting Travis Etienne to shift into change-of-pace and pass-catching duties. That early-down volume makes Bigsby a draft target at his current cost, especially for managers prioritizing touches out of the gate.

Despite mixed camp buzz, Shepardson called Justin Fields an "intriguing back-end starting fantasy option" because his elite rushing profile gives him week-winning spike potential. Fields’ ground production insulates his floor and ceiling, making him worth a late QB1/early QB2 price for drafters hunting upside.

Shepardson noted "dubious training camp" reports and "ample negative reviews" of Caleb Williams’ performance and reiterated the stance he has "beaten the drum for": keep fading the highly drafted passer. Until Williams shows improvement, Shepardson will continue to avoid him entirely in fantasy drafts, warning managers not to chase the name value.

Josh Shepardson said Jared Goff’s half-PPR ADP dropped only a quarter of a round in 12-team drafts from July 29-Aug 5, yet he still views Goff as "over-drafted as a strictly pocket quarterback." Because Goff offers no rushing equity and therefore a capped weekly ceiling, Shepardson believes drafters can find comparable passing-only production several rounds later and recommends fading Goff at his current cost in both Season-Long and Best Ball formats.

Shepardson urged drafters to stash Sinnott at 215.0 ADP (TE36). The second-round pick logged only 5 targets as a rookie while Zach Ertz soaked up snaps, but Shepardson reminded readers that Trey McBride followed a similar path before exploding. He emphasized Ertz’s steep age curve – Stathead shows only eight 35-plus seasons with 35+ receiving yards per game in the past 20 years – and suggested 2024 already looked like Ertz’s cliff. Sinnott’s profile screams upside: a 9.73 Relative Athletic Score (33rd out of 1,199 TEs since 1987) and elite final-year college production (PFF receiving grade 81.0, 7th in YPRR at 2.02, 48-669-6 line). With Jayden Daniels expected to run a high-scoring attack, Shepardson views Sinnott as a perfect TE3 dart or cheap Daniels stack, while cautioning he should not be relied on as a TE2 beside another mid-tier option.

Josh Shepardson called Strange a priority late-round best-ball swing at 161.3 ADP (TE19). He pointed out that among 52 tight ends who ran 150+ routes last season, Strange ranked tied-15th in targets per route run (0.21), tied-19th in yards per route run (1.56) and 15th in expected half-PPR points per route (0.38). Shepardson likes the coaching change to Liam Coen, noting Coen coaxed a third-year breakout from Cade Otton in Tampa Bay and now has another third-year tight end in Jacksonville. With Brian Thomas and two-way rookie Travis Hunter stretching defenses, Shepardson expects a much friendlier scoring environment than the 2024 “mess.” He projects Strange to be the every-down route runner, thinks touchdown variance could push him into weekly spike weeks, and believes the floor is high enough that he “won’t bust completely” as a TE3 on Underdog.

Shepardson backed the Over 2.5 Walks Allowed for Erick Fedde on Underdog (1.18x), noting the right‑hander’s control has vanished: 11 walks in 21 innings (13.3 BB/9) and at least three free passes in each of his last three starts (3, 4, 4). Facing a patient Braves lineup and with an 8.5‑run total in play, Shepardson expects Fedde’s shaky command to persist.

For player props, Shepardson took the "Higher" side on Juan Soto 1.5 Total Bases at Sleeper (2.24x) and Underdog (1.17x). Baseball Savant shows Soto with a .579 SLG (.676 xSLG) and three home runs in 51 career plate appearances against Aaron Nola. Given Nola’s current 6.65 ERA and elevated hard‑contact profile, Shepardson expects Soto to tally at least two bases tonight.

Shepardson played the "Higher" on Pete Alonso 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (1.80x at Sleeper, same line at Underdog). Alonso has torched Aaron Nola for six homers, three doubles and a .731 slugging percentage in 57 career PA (17 hits overall). He’s also scorching in 2025 with 27 hits, 24 RBIs and a .346/.453 slash across just 95 plate appearances. That mix of current form and dominant BvP makes the over a strong value.

Shepardson recommended building Mets stacks around Juan Soto because Aaron Nola owns a bloated 6.65 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 1.66 HR/9 through four starts, with near‑neutral platoon splits (.322 wOBA to LHB, .313 to RHB) dating back to 2024. Soto himself is rolling with a .385 OBP, .179 ISO and 133 wRC+ in 2025, and he’s 10‑for‑38 with three doubles and three homers off Nola lifetime. With the Mets favored at -120 in an 8‑run total at Citi Field, Soto profiles as a cornerstone spend‑up for DFS lineups.

Calling Max Meyer a "DraftKings‑only GPP dart," Shepardson pointed to a 27.6 K%, 2.97 SIERA and 58.1% ground‑ball rate through 24 innings. The Reds are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (91) with a 23.4% K rate versus righties, and tonight’s total sits at a pitcher‑friendly 7.5. Even though Miami is a slight +115 underdog, Meyer’s combination of whiffs, worm‑burners and a weak opponent makes him an ideal low‑rostered SP2 for tournaments.

Josh Shepardson said Hunter Brown should anchor cash‑game lineups tonight, citing ace‑level underlying numbers through four 2025 starts (1.50 ERA, 3.04 SIERA, 0.83 WHIP, 25.3 K%, 58.3 GB%, 115 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 116 Pitching+). He added that Toronto ranks just 22nd in wRC+ (92) against right‑handed pitching and strikes out 22.7% of the time. Vegas backs the spot with Houston sitting -140 in a game total of only 7.5 runs, reinforcing Brown’s win equity and run‑prevention outlook.

Shepardson ranked Spencer Schwellenbach second on the slate, noting a 2.55 ERA, 3.13 SIERA, 0.85 WHIP and swing‑and‑miss rates that jump off the page (14.6 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%, 111 Stuff+). Atlanta is a healthy -185 favorite, boosting win odds, but the 8.5‑run total and a middling Cardinals lineup keep him a tick below Brown in cash. Still, the 23‑year‑old’s 54.5% ground‑ball rate and 23.4% strikeout clip give him tournament‑winning upside at a modest salary.