With the line essentially a pick’em (-1), Joyner chose Baltimore (confidence 1 both ways) because if the game turns into a shootout the Ravens hold trump cards: Lamar Jackson’s newly elite accuracy, Derrick Henry’s explosive run rate (second in 10-plus-yard rush percentage on 250+ carries), and pass-catchers Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. Buffalo upgraded defense to avoid track meets, but against a roster that boasts "superb talent on every level," Joyner sides with the visitors.

Joyner put a 2-confidence win and 1-confidence cover on L.A. (-3) after reports confirmed Matthew Stafford will suit up despite back concerns. Pairing Stafford with Davante Adams gives the Rams one of the league’s premier receiver duos. Houston brings an elite edge tandem in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson plus Nico Collins/Jayden Higgins outside, but its offensive line rates worst in the league by Joyner’s metrics. That liability on the road against Aaron Donald and company makes the Rams the safer side.

Joyner likes Green Bay to win (confidence 1) but takes Detroit +2.5 (confidence 1) because the matchup is otherwise a dead heat. Jordan Love finished top-6 in both vertical categories while injured and now adds rookie deep threat Matthew Golden. Detroit counters with Jameson Williams, one of only three receivers to clear 10.0 YPT on 75+ targets; new OC John Morton intends even more go-balls. Both defenses are talented but inconsistent, though Micah Parsons’ arrival in Wisconsin could be an early jolt. The slight edge of Lambeau Field pushes the money-line to the Packers, but Joyner prefers the points with the Lions.

Joyner backed Pittsburgh at ‑3 (confidence 6 SU, 4 ATS) because Arthur Smith now has the personnel his playbook demands: Aaron Rodgers, ninth in stretch-vertical PPG last year, plus D.K. Metcalf outside and a Jonnu Smith/Pat Freiermuth tight-end combo inside. The Steelers line is elite and the Kaleb Johnson-Jaylen Warren backfield gives balance. New York’s run-first blueprint with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen mirrors Detroit’s, yet quarterback Justin Fields ranked 29th or worse in PPG at every route depth. Joyner sees that aerial limitation as the deciding factor.

Although Kyler Murray ranked dead last or near it in vertical PPG from 2022-24, Joyner laid 6.5 with Arizona (confidence 7 SU, 4 ATS) because the Cardinals still bring four matchup nightmares — Murray’s escapability plus Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner and Trey McBride. New Orleans counters with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave but turns the keys over to Spencer Rattler, whom Joyner calls "arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL." Even with Kellen Moore’s scheme likely to help eventually, Week 1 should belong to the more explosive roster in red and white.

Joyner tagged Seattle with a 3-confidence win and 4-confidence cover (+2.5) because Mike Macdonald has doubled down on a defense that already beat San Francisco late last year. The Seahawks stockpiled defensive linemen and boast a four-deep secondary headlined by Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen. Offensively, Sam Darnold helms a group featuring Kenneth Walker III, Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Conversely, the 49ers possess a soft spot in the secondary that could be exposed on the road. Joyner trusts the home crowd and personnel gains to push Seattle to two straight over its NFC West rival.

Joyner not only laid the 8 points with Denver (confidence 8 SU, 6 ATS) but urged bettors to eye the Broncos at +2500 Super Bowl futures. The defense returns 61.5 of last year’s 63 sacks, rookie QB Bo Nix already looks like a franchise cornerstone, and RB RJ Harvey supplies breakaway speed the 2024 backfield lacked. Against that, Tennessee arrives with newly acquired Cam Ward but little surrounding talent. Joyner believes the road environment plus Denver’s pass-rush depth creates a mismatch too large for the Titans to keep within a touchdown.

Calling Las Vegas a "strong upset pick," Joyner assigned 4 confidence on the money-line and 5 on the +2.5 spread because Chip Kelly’s up-tempo scheme lets Geno Smith lean on two explosive rookies: TE Brock Bowers, "arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL," and RB Ashton Jeanty, whom Joyner compares to Barry Sanders. The Raiders also catch a green-rated rush-defense matchup, a potential launch pad for Jeanty’s league-leading aspirations. New England counters with TreVeyon Henderson but plans a workload split with inefficient Rhamondre Stevenson, and Bill O’Brien’s offense lacks big-play upside. Joyner thinks that imbalance gives Vegas both the statistical and narrative edge.

Assigning a 7-confidence win and 4-confidence cover at ‑6, Joyner praised Washington for surrounding Jayden Daniels with a fortified line plus Deebo Samuel, re-signed Terry McLaurin and potential RB upgrade Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He expects defensive improvement, too. The Giants respond with Russell Wilson, who still ranked top-4 in both vertical categories last season, and rookie Malik Nabers, but roster depth lags. Given home-field and superior two-way talent, Joyner’s model leans Commanders.

Joyner stamped his highest Week 1 mark (8 confidence SU, 6 ATS at ‑5.5) on Cincinnati because Zac Taylor ended the club’s slow-start curse by giving Joe Burrow heavy preseason snaps. Burrow shredded exhibition defenses and now faces three Browns defensive backs graded green (highly favorable) in Joyner’s Paydirt system. Cleveland’s offense, piloted by a conservative scheme, is ill-suited for shootouts, and new DC Al Golden has spent the off-season designing ways to avoid them. Joyner expects the Bengals to dictate tempo and cover comfortably.

Joyner slotted a 3-confidence money-line and 4-confidence ATS pick on the Falcons (+2.5) after Tampa Bay lost three pass catchers for Week 1 (Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton). That leaves Mike Evans and first-rounder Emeka Egbuka to face a secondary that Joyner’s metrics grade as the single most favorable coverage matchup of the week for Atlanta (97/100). While both Bijan Robinson and Rachaad White meet tough run defenses, the injury-thinned Buccaneers pass game turns what the betting public thinks is a 47.5-point shootout into a narrow Atlanta home win.

Despite being a 3-point underdog in Sao Paulo, the Chargers earned Joyner’s only money-line play of the week at confidence 1 (spread confidence 2) because Patrick Mahomes comes off a season ranking 27th in vertical PPG (11+ air yards) and 28th in stretch-vertical PPG (21+). Andy Reid wants to fix that with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, but both draw difficult individual matchups according to Joyner’s 1-to-100 Paydirt grades. Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers, on the other hand, will funnel targets to Ladd McConkey against a Kansas City secondary that rates merely average, while both backfields face poor rush-defense matchups. With neither side able to run, Joyner trusts Los Angeles’ “aerial success to offset Kansas City” and grabs the +3 at ‑102 plus the outright win.