Kelley Bydlon strongly recommended betting against Max Homa in a head-to-head tournament matchup with Joel Dahmen, pointing to Homa's surprisingly poor recent form. Max Homa ranked alarmingly low in Kelley's model, so low that he didn't initially realize Homa was participating. While emphasizing Dahmen's solid statistical profile and recent form, Kelley characterized betting against the struggling Homa at only -127 odds as surprisingly good value and a play he wouldn't have believed practical a year ago.

Kelley Bydlon reiterated his support for Alex Smalley despite Smalley disappointing him the last two events with consecutive missed cuts. Bydlon remains optimistic due to Smalley's robust overarching statistical profile, ranking consistently high in his betting models. Acknowledging Smalley has suffered due to isolated rough patches instead of sustained poor play, Kelley bet him again in top 20 markets at +275 and a matchup against Andrew Novak at -105 odds. Kelley highlighted Smalley's consistent off-the-tee performance, arguing the recent poor rounds were anomalies.

Kelley Bydlon expressed enthusiasm for Bud Cauley as a top-10 bet, impressed by Cauley's recent finishes—T4 and T6—in the past two weeks and his high standing in statistical models. Bydlon highlighted his strong overall play and ranked him highly based on recent data, backing him at +450 odds for a top-10 finish. He cited Cauley's impressive recent form and solid metrics across the categories typically valued in his betting model. Bydlon specifically mentioned this was partly a narrative bet, humorously calling Cauley "Matt Brown's guy" due to Brown's frequent support earlier this season.

Kelley Bydlon strongly endorsed Tommy Fleetwood due to outstanding recent form and statistical indicators, placing multiple bets on Fleetwood in top 10 and top 20 markets plus top Englishman. Fleetwood ranks impressively in his last 16 rounds, sitting 6th on approach, 11th off the tee, 12th in opportunities gained, and 5th in total driving. He's consistently finishing within the top 20 this season and achieved a T7 here last year, his only appearance at the event. Although he's avoiding outright bets due to pricing, Kelley saw significant value on Fleetwood in placement markets, emphasizing a particularly appealing wager for top Englishman at +140 odds at Caesars.

Kelley Bydlon confidently recommended betting Daniel Berger as a plus-money underdog (+117) in a tournament matchup versus Denny McCarthy, believing Berger's pricing was surprising and presented high value. Bydlon noted Berger's consistently strong tee-to-green game (18th), exceptional scrambling (10th), and recent hot putting and around-the-green play. Kelley also pointed out Berger's recent successful finishes in strong fields (T20 Players Championship, T15 API) as indicators of sustained good form, strengthening his conviction for choosing Berger over McCarthy in head-to-head markets this week.

Kelley Bydlon strongly encouraged betting Keegan Bradley at the Valero Texas Open, citing Bradley's recent form and ideal statistical fit for this event. Bradley ranks 19th in strokes gained off-the-tee, 5th in approach shots, 13th in par-five scoring, and 7th in sand saves over the past 16 rounds— aligning perfectly with key demands at TPC San Antonio. Kelley highlighted Bradley's recent finishes (T20 at the Players, T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational) and his T8 finish at last year's Valero as reasons he loves Bradley this week as an outright bet, top-5/top-20 wager, and his one-and-done selection.

Kelley Bydlon, despite expressing high regard for Akshay Bhatia and holding a future Masters bet on him, advised against taking him outright at current market prices (around 25-to-1). Kelley mentioned sharp bettors have driven Bhatia's number down significantly, making his odds overly short and unbettable at present pricing. Although still bullish on Bhatia's talent and potential, Kelley stressed he's passing purely due to price consideration and recommended the same careful approach for others who like Bhatia.

Kelley Bydlon placed a tournament matchup wager on Kevin Yu over Harry Hall. Although Kelley admits he didn't have the confidence to bet Yu outright or in finishing-position markets, he feels strong enough about Yu's prospects relative to Hall's inconsistency to back Yu head-to-head this week.

Kelley Bydlon has taken Davis Thompson at +160 for a top-20 finish, citing his excellent fit for Memorial Park, despite concerns about inconsistent approach numbers. Kelley highlighted Thompson's strengths as top 15 in both strokes gained off-the-tee and around-the-green, crucial at this venue. Thompson finished T-21 at this event last year, providing positive course history to reinforce Kelley's confidence despite unease around his shorter-than-hoped odds.

Kelley Bydlon is betting Michael Kim for a top-20 finish at +175, pointing to his steady recent form despite narrowly missing last week. Kim has shown remarkable consistency, with only one notably poor round over the past seven weeks, gaining strokes across all key metrics. Adding intrigue to Kim this week, Wes Reynolds noted Kim sits at World No. 52 and needs only approximately a top-22 finish to earn enough ranking points this week to qualify for The Masters. This added motivation further boosts the appeal of a Michael Kim top-20 wager.

Kelley Bydlon decided to bet Min Woo Lee outright despite acknowledging Lee's inconsistent iron play. Lee's powerful driving distance and elite short-game stats—top 15 in putting, strokes gained around-the-green, and scrambling—align perfectly with Memorial Park's emphasis on distance and recovery skills. Lee recently had a strong finish (T-11) at Cognizant Founders Cup, a course that demands a well-rounded game. Although Lee's odds shortened to 35-to-1 due to bettor interest, Kelley opted to bet outright and top five markets rather than safer top 20 bets due to Lee's high-variance style.

Kelley Bydlon placed an outright bet on Jake Knapp at 80-to-1, based primarily on gut feel. Knapp was initially thought to be a big bomber off the tee, but recently his off-the-tee numbers haven't been consistent. However, his iron play has noticeably improved, creating optimism for his fit on this course. Despite short-term doubts about his consistency, Kelley feels Knapp's improved approach play combined with his historically strong off-the-tee profile makes him an intriguing longshot to wager on this week.

Kelley Bydlon identified Rory McIlroy as a prime live betting candidate at the Texas Childrens Houston Open. McIlroy's recent form has been outstanding, leading Bydlon to nearly wager on him pre-tournament at around 7 or 8-to-1, despite usually avoiding sub-ten odds. Given this week's high odds gap between McIlroy and the next tier, and McIlroy having no prior course history at Memorial Park, Bydlon opts instead for potentially better opportunities available during live betting, especially considering Rory's recent dominant play.

Kelley Bydlon loves the value in Alex Smalley at 60/1 odds this week at the Texas Childrens Houston Open. Smalley ranked third in Bydlon's 20-round statistical model, trailing only Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. Given the heavy talent drop-off after top favorites, Bydlon feels strongly that Smalley's impressive statistical profile—ranking prominently across key stats including driving distance, good drives gained, scrambling, bogey avoidance, and overall putting not dependent on greens type—makes him significantly undervalued compared to his odds. Despite acknowledging betting less this week due to uncertainty at Memorial Park, Smalley stood out as a clear value pick in Bydlon's eyes.