Bydlon’s favorite matchup play is Harris English +110 over Ben Griffin. English brings a proven track record in elite fields and ranks top-25 in this week’s model for both bogey avoidance and par-5 scoring. Griffin, meanwhile, steps up dramatically in class mere days after his maiden victory—an angle Kelley loves to fade as players often exhale post-win. Getting plus money on the steadier veteran in tougher scoring conditions was, in her words, ‘shocking’ value.

Bydlon is hammering Corey Conners for another top-20 after cashing seven of the last eight. Conners ranks 8th off-the-tee, 10th on approach, and 13th tee-to-green over his past 12 rounds while sitting 6th in driving accuracy and 12th in GIR on the season. He already owns two top-20s at the Memorial in the last three years, and Kelley sees no reason to stop riding the form until sportsbooks tighten the number.

Kelley played Si Woo Kim for both top-10 and top-20 bets and even took him plus money in a head-to-head over Daniel Berger. Si Woo loves Muirfield Village—finishes of 15th, 4th, 13th, 19th, and 18th the past five years. Current form backs it up: 19th in strokes-gained approach, excellent long-iron play, and 3rd in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds. His scrambling numbers have ticked up as well, offsetting lack of elite distance. With this track rewarding precision and par saves, Bydlon sees Kim as a high-floor placement staple and a live underdog in matchups.

Bydlon grabbed Keegan Bradley at 50-1 outright and added a top-5 sprinkle because his recent form checks every key Memorial box. Over the last 12 rounds Bradley is 2nd in the field tee-to-green, 17th off-the-tee, 17th on approach, 4th around the green, and 8th in par-5 scoring. He finished T8 at the PGA Championship and his scrambling numbers—normally a weakness—have surged. While Keegan’s prior results at Muirfield are modest, Kelley trusts the raw ball-striking surge and extensive course reps to outweigh that history in a week where scoring stays at single digits under par.

Kelley Bydlon also fired on Schauffele, shopping a 19-1 ticket even though books refuse to drift his number. Over the last 12 rounds Xander ranks 4th off-the-tee, has gained on approach in four consecutive events, and sits 10th in par-5 scoring—critical with only four holes playing under par at Muirfield. Bydlon noted the off-season speed-training added distance without sacrificing accuracy, a profile tailor-made for Jack Nicklaus’ demanding second-shot layout. Schauffele owns five top-20s here in the past six years, proving the course fit. Kelley paired the outright with a top-5 ticket, convinced the complete game is peaking for a summer victory run.

Kelley went right back to Shane Lowry in the top-20 market, noting the Memorial’s single-digit winning score mirrors the U.S.-Open-style setups where Lowry thrives. Despite a missed cut at the PGA Championship, Lowry gained strokes on approach in five straight events prior and finished runner-up at the Truist Invitational the week before. His driving accuracy and precise mid-iron play neutralize Muirfield’s thick rough, and his putter historically heats up on bent-grass. Bydlon is confident Lowry’s all-around game will bank another paycheck inside the top 20.

Kelley Bydlon recommended taking Xander Schauffele in the placement markets rather than eating a short outright price. He grabbed +360 for a top-five and +175 for a top-10, reminding listeners this is a no-cut, 72-player signature event—meaning Schauffele only has to beat 62 golfers for the top-10 ticket to cash. Bydlon wants to be early on Xander’s upswing: the injury concerns appear gone, he gained 2.82 strokes putting at Valspar, logged a quiet T-8 at the Masters and finished inside the top-20 at RBC. Through six 2025 starts Schauffele is essentially neutral in his weakest categories and gaining in ball-striking, suggesting the ceiling round is coming soon. On a course both hosts consider “gettable,” Bydlon views the plus-money placements as the last chance to buy low before sportsbooks fully price in Xander’s return to form.

Kelley Bydlon called Keegan Bradley his boom-or-bust long-shot at 50-to-1, pointing to elite tee-to-green form that is being masked by an ice-cold putter. Bradley ranks fourth Tee-to-Green and ninth in Total Driving over the last 16 rounds while landing inside the top-10 on approach in all three of Bydlon’s mixed-condition models. He is also top-10 in driving distance within this small signature-event field, a sneaky fit for clearing the 285–300-yard fairway bunkers highlighted earlier in the show. Bydlon admitted the flatstick has been awful—dead last in SG: Putting over the past month—but argued Bradley’s spike weeks almost always arrive on bent-grass, the surface at Philadelphia Cricket Club. With only 72 players, plus-140 for a Top-20 (Matt Brown’s safer angle) and 50-to-1 outright both made his card; he is betting that a neutral putter unlocks Bradley’s recent gains Around-the-Green and from 100-150 yards.

Kelley Bydlon upgraded Jordan Spieth from a Top-20 wager to an outright bet after his own model and Matt Brown’s both loved Spieth. Over the last 16 measured rounds—essentially the past four events—Spieth sits 6th in Total Driving and 10th in Driving Distance within this small 72-man field while remaining top-10 in Tee-to-Green and wedge-range proximity (50–150 yards). Across three separate date-range builds that emphasized Off-the-T, 400–450-yard par-4 scoring, scrambling, and lag-putting on bent-grass greens, Spieth graded 7th, 4th and 6th. Bydlon believes the course’s 118 fairway bunkers at 285–300 yards mean the extra pop Spieth has shown lately can help him clear trouble and attack with scoring clubs. With books hanging him around 25-to-1, Bydlon sees enough win equity to pair the safer Top-20 with an outright flyer.

Kelley Bydlon remains optimistic about Ludvig Aberg's trajectory despite his disappointing finish at the Masters. Bydlon pointed out that Aberg was competitive and hung in contention until he faltered on the final two holes with a bogey and triple bogey. Still, Bydlon expects him to be 'a monster' this season, seeing his Masters result as evidence Aberg is not yet at an elite level but trending strongly upward. Bettors and fantasy players should look for opportunities to capitalize on Aberg's future breakout potential at more favorable odds after this performance.

Kelley Bydlon recommends betting Tom Hoge for a top-20 placement and strongly considers him for a first-round leader wager at the RBC Heritage. Typically known exclusively as an elite approach player, Hoge enters RBC Heritage exhibiting rare strong form in putting and short-game categories, gaining strokes with the putter in three consecutive tournaments. His recent finishes—T14, T5, and T3—demonstrate marked improvement in form. Even though his Harbour Town course history is modest, a T18 finish last year signifies potential here. Kelley sees current improved putting form paired with his consistently elite irons as justifying Hoge for confident placement betting this week.

Despite recent disappointing performances which cost Kelley Bydlon money at the Masters, he remains committed to Sepp Straka for a top-20 bet at RBC Heritage. Kelley justified this wager based on Straka's consistently excellent approach numbers and elite par-5 scoring, two crucial factors at Harbour Town. Straka has previously shown strong ability on this course, finishing T5 and T3 in recent years, further bolstering confidence in his betting value despite mixed recent form.

Kelley Bydlon is continuing to ride Corey Conners' hot streak with a sizeable top-10 bet at the RBC Heritage. Conners has consistently gained strokes across all categories recently, notably ranking top-20 in both approach and around the green metrics. His recent form is stellar, recording a T8 finish at the Masters, T18 at Valero, T8 at Valspar, sixth at the Players, and third at Arnold Palmer Invitational. Also, Conners boasts strong course history at Harbour Town, including finishes of T12 and T4. Kelley acknowledges Conners' limited win potential outside the Valero Texas Open but maintains confidence in his consistency for placement markets like top-10 this week.

Kelley Bydlon strongly recommends betting Russell Henley outright, as well as for top-five and top-ten placements at RBC Heritage. Henley ranks top 20 in approach stats, notably excels in the critical 150-200 yard range, and consistently demonstrates accuracy off the tee—crucial at Harbour Town. He also ranks eighth around the green and seventh in bogey avoidance. Despite missing the cut the previous week, Henley had a strong round on Friday, suggesting he's quickly rebounding. His past record at Harbour Town, with finishes of T12, T19, and T9 over the past four years, further supports Henley's strong betting value this week.

Kelley Bydlon likes Justin Thomas as an outright value bet at RBC Heritage because the course setup limits driver use, forcing players to club down off the tee. Kelley highlighted JT's elite approach game as a key driver of expected performance. He pointed out that JT's recent struggles largely stem from spraying tee shots with his driver, so the reduction in driver usage will greatly benefit him. Additionally, Thomas has surprisingly gained strokes with his putter in three consecutive events, addressing a usual weakness. JT also has a history of success at Harbour Town, finishing tied for fifth at last year's RBC Heritage, reinforcing the positive outlook on this wager.

Kelley Bydlon enthusiastically supports Daniel Berger as both an outright and top-20 bet at RBC Heritage, highlighting Berger’s strong recent form and excellent suitability for the Harbour Town layout. Berger’s recent consistent finishes include a T21 at Masters, top 20 at Players, and T15 at Arnold Palmer Invitational. Harbour Town's setup benefits Berger, who ranks highly across key metrics including approach, par-5 scoring, driving accuracy, good drives and short game categories. Bydlon additionally pointed to Berger's past Harbour Town results—finishing T-3rd in 2020, T-13th in 2021, and T-21st in 2022—as further positive indicators supporting this wager.

Kelley Bydlon decided against betting Ludvig Aberg at the RBC Heritage despite liking his talent and long-term potential. Bydlon has played Aberg frequently previously, but cited significant concerns about his shaky approach numbers, critical at Harbour Town due to high demand for precise iron play. Given the course's setup emphasizing accuracy on approach, Aberg's recent inconsistent iron performances raised enough red flags for Bydlon to pass on him despite thinking the player will likely have substantial success later in the year.

Kelley Bydlon expresses reservations about betting Collin Morikawa outright at the RBC Heritage, despite Morikawa ranking highly (third overall) in his statistical models. While praising Morikawa's tee-to-green game and consistent accuracy, Kelley questions Morikawa's ability to effectively close out tournaments right now, noting concerns raised from his performances including at The Masters. Despite high statistical ratings and an appealing outright price (11-1), doubts linger about Morikawa's current form under pressure and his clutch putting performance, making Bydlon hesitant to back him outright at this point despite recognizing his overall quality and fit for the course.

Kelley Bydlon is betting Alex Smalley outright at Corales Puntacana due to his impressive statistical profile this season. Bydlon notes he's continuously supported Smalley in prior events based on consistently strong underlying approach metrics and off-the-tee numbers. Despite not conducting detailed analysis this week, Bydlon is confident sticking with Smalley as an appealing outright option given his stable statistical foundation, making him a logical pick to win at relatively shorter odds.

Kelley Bydlon strongly recommended betting against Max Homa in a head-to-head tournament matchup with Joel Dahmen, pointing to Homa's surprisingly poor recent form. Max Homa ranked alarmingly low in Kelley's model, so low that he didn't initially realize Homa was participating. While emphasizing Dahmen's solid statistical profile and recent form, Kelley characterized betting against the struggling Homa at only -127 odds as surprisingly good value and a play he wouldn't have believed practical a year ago.

Kelley Bydlon reiterated his support for Alex Smalley despite Smalley disappointing him the last two events with consecutive missed cuts. Bydlon remains optimistic due to Smalley's robust overarching statistical profile, ranking consistently high in his betting models. Acknowledging Smalley has suffered due to isolated rough patches instead of sustained poor play, Kelley bet him again in top 20 markets at +275 and a matchup against Andrew Novak at -105 odds. Kelley highlighted Smalley's consistent off-the-tee performance, arguing the recent poor rounds were anomalies.

Kelley Bydlon expressed enthusiasm for Bud Cauley as a top-10 bet, impressed by Cauley's recent finishes—T4 and T6—in the past two weeks and his high standing in statistical models. Bydlon highlighted his strong overall play and ranked him highly based on recent data, backing him at +450 odds for a top-10 finish. He cited Cauley's impressive recent form and solid metrics across the categories typically valued in his betting model. Bydlon specifically mentioned this was partly a narrative bet, humorously calling Cauley "Matt Brown's guy" due to Brown's frequent support earlier this season.

Kelley Bydlon strongly endorsed Tommy Fleetwood due to outstanding recent form and statistical indicators, placing multiple bets on Fleetwood in top 10 and top 20 markets plus top Englishman. Fleetwood ranks impressively in his last 16 rounds, sitting 6th on approach, 11th off the tee, 12th in opportunities gained, and 5th in total driving. He's consistently finishing within the top 20 this season and achieved a T7 here last year, his only appearance at the event. Although he's avoiding outright bets due to pricing, Kelley saw significant value on Fleetwood in placement markets, emphasizing a particularly appealing wager for top Englishman at +140 odds at Caesars.

Kelley Bydlon confidently recommended betting Daniel Berger as a plus-money underdog (+117) in a tournament matchup versus Denny McCarthy, believing Berger's pricing was surprising and presented high value. Bydlon noted Berger's consistently strong tee-to-green game (18th), exceptional scrambling (10th), and recent hot putting and around-the-green play. Kelley also pointed out Berger's recent successful finishes in strong fields (T20 Players Championship, T15 API) as indicators of sustained good form, strengthening his conviction for choosing Berger over McCarthy in head-to-head markets this week.

Kelley Bydlon strongly encouraged betting Keegan Bradley at the Valero Texas Open, citing Bradley's recent form and ideal statistical fit for this event. Bradley ranks 19th in strokes gained off-the-tee, 5th in approach shots, 13th in par-five scoring, and 7th in sand saves over the past 16 rounds— aligning perfectly with key demands at TPC San Antonio. Kelley highlighted Bradley's recent finishes (T20 at the Players, T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational) and his T8 finish at last year's Valero as reasons he loves Bradley this week as an outright bet, top-5/top-20 wager, and his one-and-done selection.

Kelley Bydlon, despite expressing high regard for Akshay Bhatia and holding a future Masters bet on him, advised against taking him outright at current market prices (around 25-to-1). Kelley mentioned sharp bettors have driven Bhatia's number down significantly, making his odds overly short and unbettable at present pricing. Although still bullish on Bhatia's talent and potential, Kelley stressed he's passing purely due to price consideration and recommended the same careful approach for others who like Bhatia.

Kelley Bydlon placed a tournament matchup wager on Kevin Yu over Harry Hall. Although Kelley admits he didn't have the confidence to bet Yu outright or in finishing-position markets, he feels strong enough about Yu's prospects relative to Hall's inconsistency to back Yu head-to-head this week.

Kelley Bydlon has taken Davis Thompson at +160 for a top-20 finish, citing his excellent fit for Memorial Park, despite concerns about inconsistent approach numbers. Kelley highlighted Thompson's strengths as top 15 in both strokes gained off-the-tee and around-the-green, crucial at this venue. Thompson finished T-21 at this event last year, providing positive course history to reinforce Kelley's confidence despite unease around his shorter-than-hoped odds.

Kelley Bydlon is betting Michael Kim for a top-20 finish at +175, pointing to his steady recent form despite narrowly missing last week. Kim has shown remarkable consistency, with only one notably poor round over the past seven weeks, gaining strokes across all key metrics. Adding intrigue to Kim this week, Wes Reynolds noted Kim sits at World No. 52 and needs only approximately a top-22 finish to earn enough ranking points this week to qualify for The Masters. This added motivation further boosts the appeal of a Michael Kim top-20 wager.

Kelley Bydlon decided to bet Min Woo Lee outright despite acknowledging Lee's inconsistent iron play. Lee's powerful driving distance and elite short-game stats—top 15 in putting, strokes gained around-the-green, and scrambling—align perfectly with Memorial Park's emphasis on distance and recovery skills. Lee recently had a strong finish (T-11) at Cognizant Founders Cup, a course that demands a well-rounded game. Although Lee's odds shortened to 35-to-1 due to bettor interest, Kelley opted to bet outright and top five markets rather than safer top 20 bets due to Lee's high-variance style.

Kelley Bydlon placed an outright bet on Jake Knapp at 80-to-1, based primarily on gut feel. Knapp was initially thought to be a big bomber off the tee, but recently his off-the-tee numbers haven't been consistent. However, his iron play has noticeably improved, creating optimism for his fit on this course. Despite short-term doubts about his consistency, Kelley feels Knapp's improved approach play combined with his historically strong off-the-tee profile makes him an intriguing longshot to wager on this week.

Kelley Bydlon identified Rory McIlroy as a prime live betting candidate at the Texas Childrens Houston Open. McIlroy's recent form has been outstanding, leading Bydlon to nearly wager on him pre-tournament at around 7 or 8-to-1, despite usually avoiding sub-ten odds. Given this week's high odds gap between McIlroy and the next tier, and McIlroy having no prior course history at Memorial Park, Bydlon opts instead for potentially better opportunities available during live betting, especially considering Rory's recent dominant play.

Kelley Bydlon loves the value in Alex Smalley at 60/1 odds this week at the Texas Childrens Houston Open. Smalley ranked third in Bydlon's 20-round statistical model, trailing only Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. Given the heavy talent drop-off after top favorites, Bydlon feels strongly that Smalley's impressive statistical profile—ranking prominently across key stats including driving distance, good drives gained, scrambling, bogey avoidance, and overall putting not dependent on greens type—makes him significantly undervalued compared to his odds. Despite acknowledging betting less this week due to uncertainty at Memorial Park, Smalley stood out as a clear value pick in Bydlon's eyes.