Kendall Valenzuela loves grabbing Drake Maye outside pick 100 after his QB22 rookie year (13.6 PPG). She highlighted his 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per full start, pointing out the Patriots ranked dead last in supporting cast and receiver yardage (1,723) in 2024. With Mike Vrabel taking over and New England aggressively upgrading weapons, Valenzuela believes Maye’s floor rises and his rushing upside (4.9 attempts, 36.3 yards per game) can push him well past his draft slot.

Kendall Valenzuela reluctantly picked Bo Nix as her potential sophomore slump candidate despite rooting for him. She cited his 2024 numbers—66.3% completion rate, 3,775 yards, QB10 finish, yet only 18th in QBR (56.9). Digging deeper, Nix ranked 25th in yards per attempt on vertical throws and logged the second-highest rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage. Valenzuela worries Denver’s thin receiver group beyond Sutton could exacerbate those shortcomings, noting Nix sat just 16th in EPA per dropback (+0.09) and 21st in completion percentage over expected (+0.6%).

Kendall Valenzuela said she’s clicking Zay Flowers most often in the WR29–31 range. Flowers has delivered back-to-back WR3 seasons of 12.8 and 12.3 fantasy points per game despite Baltimore finishing third-from-last in dropbacks in 2024. She referenced Dwain McFarland’s ceiling-floor model that pegs Flowers for an 18.5-point ceiling (a WR1 pace) in his third campaign. Valenzuela views that upside as too good to pass up at his current discount even in a run-heavy scheme.

Kendall Valenzuela keeps scooping up Tetairoa McMillan because Fantasy Life’s 2025 projections have the rookie pegged for 121.5 targets. She concedes Carolina’s offense makes people queasy, yet reminds drafters that volume is king and Bryce Young showed flashes down the stretch in 2024. Valenzuela thinks McMillan’s cost bakes in all the risk while ignoring a potential triple-digit target season right away.

Kendall Valenzuela recommended scooping up rookie Tahj Brooks at his current bargain ADP, pointing out that Chase Brown is locked in as the Bengals’ starter but the depth chart behind him is wide open. Brooks only has to beat out veterans Zack Moss and Samaje Perine—both signed to modest deals—to secure the RB2 role, and Valenzuela believes his size/speed combo gives him better three-down insurance upside. With Cincinnati running the 11th-most plays per game in 2024 and no clear goal-line hammer, she thinks Brooks could rocket up draft boards once preseason reps confirm his spot, making now the cheapest fantasy managers will be able to acquire him.

Kendall Valenzuela noted that multiple on-site reporters have now seen Tank Bigsby taking the "bulk of the carries with the first team" and looking more explosive than Travis Etienne early in Jaguars camp. While she stopped short of declaring a starter, Valenzuela urged drafters to move Bigsby up their season-long boards because first-team usage this early usually foreshadows at least a committee. Etienne’s price bakes in a three-down role that may no longer exist, whereas Bigsby remains a late single-digit-round pick with direct access to a potentially valuable goal-line gig in a Doug Pederson offense that produced 27 running-back carries inside the 5-yard line last season.

Kendall Valenzuela pegged Jalen Nailor as a final-round dart throw in deeper leagues. Justin Jefferson will miss time in camp with a mild left hamstring strain, and Jordan Addison could still face a suspension, leaving extra first-team snaps up for grabs. Nailor, entering a contract year, is currently free in drafts but has a legitimate path to the WR3 role behind Jefferson and Addison once the season starts—or even to WR2 duties if either veteran’s availability drags. Valenzuela has not docked Jefferson in her overall ranks but did slide CeeDee Lamb up to WR2, underscoring that Nailor is the only actionable pivot she sees for fantasy drafters looking to capitalize on the camp uncertainty in Minnesota.

Kendall Valenzuela advised flat-out passing on every Texans running back after learning Joe Mixon is battling a “frustrating” foot injury before pads have even come on. She reminded readers that Mixon is already an age-29 back coming off a 344-touch season and will now run behind an offensive line Pro Football Focus graded 29th last year and only marginally upgraded. Mixon was the RB2 in PPR points per game (21.2) through Week 14 of 2024 but cratered to RB37 (8.2) during the fantasy playoffs while nursing an ankle issue. Valenzuela added that Nick Chubb is the so-called contingency plan, yet Chubb needed two reconstructive knee surgeries after his 2023 injury and still broke his foot in Week 15 of 2024, leading to career lows in yards per carry (3.3) and 10-plus-yard run rate (4.9 %). Given the mounting health concerns and questionable blocking unit, she is crossing the entire Houston backfield off her draft board.

While acknowledging Chase Brown as the clear Bengals lead back, Valenzuela revealed she is buying as much Tahj Brooks stock as possible before prices rise. The rookie’s competition consists of veterans Zack Moss and Samaje Perine, and Brooks has the three-down build (5-foot-10, 220 lbs) that could secure a sizeable share if Brown falters. Cincinnati finished 8th in red-zone plays last season, so a back who carves out the No. 2 job has weekly flex appeal. Valenzuela views Brooks as a low-cost pick who could rocket up the depth chart during August.

Valenzuela said she is closely monitoring Jacksonville’s backfield after multiple camp reports showed Tank Bigsby, not Travis Etienne, commanding most of the first-team carries and flashing more juice. The Jaguars were bottom-six in red-zone rush rate last year, and a bigger role for Bigsby could translate into valuable goal-line touches in an ascending offense led by Trevor Lawrence. Valenzuela implied Bigsby is an upside bench stash who could leapfrog Etienne sooner than the market expects.

Valenzuela suggested scooping up Jalen Nailor at the very end of deeper drafts. Justin Jefferson is sitting with a mild left hamstring strain and Jordan Addison could still face a suspension, leaving extra camp reps and potential early-season targets up for grabs. Nailor is in a contract year and, per Valenzuela, profiles as the cheapest way to get exposure to a Kevin O’Connell passing game that finished top-10 in drop-back rate. She has not adjusted Jefferson much but is treating Nailor as the actionable sleeper created by the injury/suspension dominoes.

Valenzuela lumped Nick Chubb into her Texans backfield fade, reminding drafters that Chubb is coming off two separate reconstructive knee surgeries after last year’s catastrophic Week 2 injury and then broke his foot in Week 15 of 2024. ESPN charting showed career-worst efficiency (3.3 YPC and only 4.9 % of carries gaining 10+ yards). Given the serious durability questions and the same PFF-29th offensive line Mixon inherits, Valenzuela said she is simply out on investing in Chubb this season.

Kendall Valenzuela said she has moved Joe Mixon down her season-long ranks after learning he is battling a "frustrating foot injury" in camp. Valenzuela pointed out that Mixon is now an older back whose best 2024 stretch (RB2 in PPR points per game through Week 14 at 21.2) was followed by a brutal fantasy playoff run (RB37 at 8.2 PPG while dealing with an ankle issue). She also questioned the situation around him: Houston’s offensive line graded 29th at PFF last season and, despite offseason additions, still carries uncertainty. With early health concerns layered on top of a shaky blocking unit, Valenzuela advised passing on Mixon at current draft cost.

Valenzuela pushed back on the idea that Garrett Wilson’s new four-year, $130 million extension automatically signals a breakout. Fantasy Life’s 2025 projection (128.5 targets, 78.5-921.5-5.1) aligns with Wilson’s WR20 finish last year and is well below his current WR16 ADP. With Justin Fields—who has never cleared 2,600 passing yards in a season—now under center, Valenzuela compared the situation to DJ Moore’s 2023 WR9 ceiling as the absolute best-case outcome. She concluded Wilson’s price bakes in too much optimism for what could remain one of the league’s least-productive aerial attacks.

After Quinshon Judkins was arrested on misdemeanor domestic-violence charges, Valenzuela advised fantasy managers to steer clear until the legal process plays out. Browns beat writer Mary Kay Cabot reports the team is "in no rush" to sign him or get him to camp and has told the rookie to prioritize the legal issue over football. Valenzuela fears a prolonged hold-out combined with potential league discipline could erase any early-season role, making current late-round ADPs a wasted pick.

Valenzuela noted that Mike Williams’ surprise retirement leaves the Chargers’ WR2 job wide open, and rookie Tre Harris is reporting to camp after inking his deal. With only Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston ahead of him, Valenzuela believes Harris has a realistic path to 70-plus targets in Year 1. Given Justin Herbert’s career average of 663 pass attempts under previous regimes, even a scaled-back volume offense could still feed multiple wideouts. Valenzuela recommended taking late-round darts on Harris in best-ball formats where spike weeks carry extra weight.

Using the same injury news, Valenzuela endorsed Omarion Hampton as a priority target. Hampton is already coming off Underdog boards as RB14, and Valenzuela argued that price could still be cheap if Harris’ eye issue lingers. Roman’s offenses have historically leaned on a single power back (J.K. Dobbins averaged 5.8 YPC under Roman in 2022), so an extended camp runway could lock Hampton into bell-cow status before Week 1. The analyst believes Hampton’s three-down profile plus the Chargers’ commitment to the ground game give him top-10 positional upside.

Valenzuela downgraded Najee Harris after Chargers GM Joe Hortiz revealed the veteran will open training camp on the Non-Football Injury list while he continues treatment for a 4th-of-July eye injury. Although described as "surface-level," the team has yet to examine Harris personally, creating added uncertainty inside Greg Roman’s run-heavy scheme. Valenzuela cautioned that any extended absence could cost Harris first-team reps in a brand-new offense and make him an overpriced pick at his current RB27 range.

Valenzuela highlighted rookie burner Xavier Worthy as the biggest beneficiary of the looming Rashee Rice ban. Fantasy Life’s consensus ranks already slot Worthy at WR19, and Valenzuela expects him to climb even higher once the league announces Rice’s suspension. With Patrick Mahomes targeting field-stretchers in previous seasons (see Tyreek Hill’s 27% target share in 2020), Valenzuela believes Worthy could open the year as the Chiefs’ primary vertical option and provide spike-week upside that pays off his late-fourth/early-fifth-round best-ball cost.

Kendall Valenzuela warned drafters that Rashee Rice is now a risky season-long investment after a Dallas court sentenced him to 30 days in jail and five years’ probation for last year’s multi-car crash. That legal resolution triggers the league’s disciplinary process, and multiple reports indicate the NFL is eyeing a 4-to-6-game suspension to start the 2025 season. Valenzuela advised anyone drafting this summer to build rosters assuming Rice will be unavailable through at least the first month, noting the uncertainty makes him tough to hold in shallow season-long leagues and pushes him down best-ball boards where early-season points matter.

Kendall Valenzuela advised passing on Sam Darnold in every best-ball format, arguing the Seahawks’ actions scream stopgap, not franchise savior. She noted that while Seattle paid Darnold like a starter, the contract is packed with easy outs, indicating the front office views him as a one-year bridge. Valenzuela does not trust first-year head coach Mike Macdonald to morph into a quarterback whisperer and expects the offense to hide Darnold with a run-heavy approach under new OC Clint Kubiak. Given the likelihood of sub-30 pass attempts per game, minimal designed rushing, and the real chance Darnold is benched if the season goes sideways, Valenzuela labeled him an avoid even as a QB3 dart, preferring to chase late-round upside elsewhere.

Kendall Valenzuela said the Clint Kubiak hire is the quiet cheat code for Kenneth Walker drafters in Best-Ball Mania. Valenzuela expects Kubiak to lean on a ground-first script because Mike Macdonald’s defense should keep games close and Seattle’s quarterback room tops out at Sam Darnold— hardly a signal-caller you build a high-volume passing attack around. With Macdonald focused on the defensive side, Valenzuela believes Kubiak will have full control of offensive pace and will replicate the zone-run emphasis his family has championed for two decades. She framed Walker as the clear lead in that setup, projecting a usage bump from last year’s 55% rush share to something in the low-60s, plus a path to 15–18 carries most weeks. That workload, combined with an above-average red-zone offense that already funneled 48% of inside-the-10 touches to running backs, makes Walker a priority pick at current ADP for drafters building around a hero-RB start.

Kendall Valenzuela flagged Brenton Strange as a late-round tight-end dart she keeps circling in Best-Ball Mania. Evan Engram’s departure vacates 98 receptions and 143 targets, and new OC Liam Coen comes over from Tampa Bay where Cade Otton ran a route on 87 percent of dropbacks. Valenzuela thinks that usage pattern will follow Coen to Jacksonville, giving Strange every-down snaps in an offense she expects to rebound behind Trevor Lawrence. Strange quietly earned targets during a small late-season cameo—six looks on only 42 routes—showing enough athleticism to suggest growth with volume. Because Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter will soak up early ADP heat, Strange becomes the dirt-cheap way to capture any Lawrence leap without burning premium draft capital. She’s comfortable deploying him as TE3 on receiver-heavy builds, betting on 50-plus catches and a handful of spike weeks at a near-free price.

Kendall Valenzuela keeps hammering Jordan Mason despite his rising price because she expects Kevin O’Connell to deploy a true two-man backfield in Minnesota. Aaron Jones is now 31, missed multiple games with soft-tissue injuries, and the Vikings tried but failed to create a split last year with Ty Chandler and the briefly-healthy Cam Akers. Valenzuela sees Mason filling that gap: a fresh-legged back who can handle 40 percent of carries right away and offer league-winning upside if Jones breaks down. She’s comfortable grabbing Mason in the middle rounds as a standalone flex play who can morph into an RB1 down the stretch.

Kendall Valenzuela believes drafters are sleeping on Jordan Love at his current QB18 ADP. Even through multiple injuries, Love flashed top-tier downfield accuracy in 2023, and Valenzuela expects Green Bay to lean back toward the pass if he stays healthy. Waiting on quarterback lets managers hammer premium skill spots while still getting a passer with a realistic path to the top 12—similar to last year’s C.J. Stroud, only cheaper. She’s comfortable building receiver-heavy rosters and scooping Love in the late rounds, especially when paired with Matthew Golden or Tucker Kraft.

Kendall Valenzuela called rookie Matthew Golden the ultimate Best-Ball wild card who could walk into Green Bay’s WR1 job. She noted that Matt LaFleur is "sick of being asked" whether the Packers have a lead receiver, and chronic hamstring issues have kept Christian Watson from claiming the role. The franchise hasn’t used Round-1 capital on a wideout since 2002, so spending it on Golden signals a plan to feature him. Valenzuela envisions a Watson replacement with similar field-stretching ability but better durability, forecasting an immediate path to 20-plus percent target share and spike-week potential in Jordan Love stacks at a double-digit-round cost.

Kendall Valenzuela doubled-down on her earlier love for T-Mac, saying Dave Canales "couldn’t stop calling him a huge threat in the red zone" during the post-draft presser. The Panthers’ new coach repeated the phrase at multiple points, a pattern Valenzuela likened to how the Steelers talked about Deontay Johnson when they funneled the entire passing game through him. She expects McMillan to live at the X spot and be Bryce Young’s first read, giving the rookie both the 120-plus targets she previously projected and legitimate double-digit touchdown upside. With a thin veteran WR room and a play-caller openly scheming throws for him inside the 20, Valenzuela sees McMillan as a priority pick who can win Weeks 15-17 in Best Ball Mania.

Kendall Valenzuela called Tetairoa McMillan a smash pick at or even ahead of ADP, citing Fantasy Life’s projection of roughly 125 targets in Dave Canales’ new Carolina offense. She acknowledged the Panthers aren’t "sexy," but emphasized that Bryce Young’s accuracy dovetails with McMillan’s contested-catch profile. Valenzuela also pointed to Canales’ post-draft press conference, where the coach repeatedly highlighted McMillan as a red-zone mismatch, reinforcing the idea that the rookie could command immediate high-leverage looks. All of that volume at his current cost makes T-Mac one of her most-drafted wideouts.