Ducey likes Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 37.5 rushing yards at -110. Washington hammered the ground game in Week 1—32 carries, 220 yards, 6.9 YPC—while the Packers’ defensive stats were flattered by Detroit abandoning the run after an early 10-point hole. PFF still graded Green Bay’s run D only 18th. Croskey-Merritt, a seventh-round rookie who averaged roughly 4.0 YPC in preseason, earned a 33% snap share and ripped off 10 carries for 82 yards (including a 42-yard burst) versus New York. Ducey believes the Commanders’ run-heavy identity and the tailback’s explosive first impression make this number a bargain.

Ducey recommended betting Micah Parsons 1+ sack at +102. The Lions still allowed four sacks to Green Bay last week despite grading 17th in pass-blocking and Parsons picked up one in what Ducey called a "quiet" debut. On Thursday he’ll hunt Commanders rookie LT Josh Conerly Jr., whose 12th-worst PFF grade at the position included two sacks surrendered to Brian Burns. Ducey labeled Parsons "arguably the best pass-rusher in the game" and expects the mismatch against an overmatched rookie to cash the prop.

Kenny Ducey backed Jayden Daniels to top 50 rushing yards at +107 in his Commanders-Packers same-game parlay. Ducey pointed out that Green Bay’s coverage earned the 4th-best PFF grade in Week 1, yet its pass rush underwhelmed—something he expects to change with new arrival Micah Parsons screaming off the edge. Washington’s line let Daniels operate with just 2.77 seconds to throw (13th-fewest among 33 QBs) against a weaker Giants front, so Ducey anticipates even less pocket time on Thursday. The "second-year" quarterback already ran 11 times for 68 yards last week and has logged 9+ carries in seven of his last nine games (playoffs included), averaging 60 rushing yards. With volume, matchup, and recent form all pointing the same way, Ducey likes the alt-line over for Daniels’ legs.