Kevin Thomas said he would take Cleveland on the moneyline if forced to pick a side because the Guardians are plus money in what he views as a toss-up. While acknowledging Bassitt’s strong home numbers, he pointed out that those outings came against a slumping Orioles lineup and thinks Cleveland’s balanced offense, slick defense, and fundamentally sound play narrow the gap. He also flagged potential bullpen fatigue for Toronto after a hard-fought series with the Red Sox, which could tilt late-inning leverage toward the Guardians.

Kevin Thomas recommended betting under 8.5 runs in Guardians-Blue Jays, projecting both starters – Chris Bassitt and rookie left-hander Taylor Allen – to work at least six effective innings. Bassitt’s two-start home sample (17 Ks, 1.35 ERA) suggests a sharp form, while Allen has posted a road ERA around 2.00 by pounding the zone with his sinker/slider combo. Thomas noted a potential let-down spot for Toronto after an emotional divisional series with Boston and wondered if a taxed bullpen could help the under by forcing managers to ride the starters longer. He believes a combined final tally of roughly four runs is realistic and suggested an even safer first-five under for bettors worried about late-inning variance.

Kevin Thomas said bettors should attack Chris Bassitt’s strikeout prop, calling six punch-outs the “golden number.” Bassitt has racked up 17 strikeouts over his last two home starts and draws a Cleveland lineup that prioritizes contact but still whiffs enough for Bassitt’s deep pitch mix to play. Thomas advised smashing the over if books open the line at 5.0 or 5.5 and still taking it at 6.0. However, if sportsbooks hang 6.5 or higher, he would flip to the under, expecting Bassitt to land right on six strikeouts. The handicap leans on Bassitt’s home dominance, his recent form, and confidence that John Schneider will let him work at least six innings in what profiles as a tight game.

Kevin Thomas is betting on the Detroit Tigers at plus 125 moneyline value to complete their sweep against the New York Yankees. Despite acknowledging the difficulty of completing sweeps, he strongly questions the quality and consistency of the Yankees bullpen, which he emphasized as a serious vulnerability. Thomas also downplayed the Yankees' recent performances, noting they look overrated after beating a weak Pirates team that he believes might lead to an upcoming managerial change.

Kevin Thomas believes Spencer Torkelson is a good value for an RBI prop bet against the Yankees. Torkelson had largely underperformed as a highly regarded rookie, nearly sent down to minors last season, and previously went hitless before delivering two hits and an RBI the prior day. Thomas specifically noted Torkelson's favorable batting order position (hitting fourth behind Riley Greene) in Detroit's lineup as an additional positive factor, expecting opportunities despite facing a strong pitcher in Max Fried.