Kingpin targeted Matt Chapman for over 1.5 total bases against Mike Soroka. Soroka has stumbled to a 1-2 record with a 5.95 ERA and ranks bottom-10 in barrel rate allowed (11%). Opposite him, Robbie Ray is undefeated at 6-0 with a 2.67 ERA, positioning San Francisco as firm favorites and giving Chapman ample plate appearances. Chapman’s 53% hard-hit rate versus righties pairs well with spacious Nationals Park gaps, converting liners into doubles. With the Nationals’ bullpen carrying a 4.98 ERA and fatigue after a double-header Friday, Kingpin sees Chapman collecting at least one extra-base hit and clearing the 1.5-base prop.

Kingpin backed Christian Yelich over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Rookie left-hander L. Henderson has opened 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA, giving Milwaukee a strong chance to play with a lead against Bailey Falter (3-3, 3.50) and a Pirates offense labeled "inconsistent." Playing from ahead should set Yelich up for five plate appearances. Falter’s 43% hard-hit rate and limited swing-and-miss profile (16% CSW) translate to plenty of balls in play, and Pittsburgh’s bullpen ERA sits north of 4.60. Kingpin noted that Milwaukee’s top-5 team OBP creates steady RBI chances for Yelich, while his 15-for-40 (.375) career mark against Pittsburgh pitching this season supports the over.

Kingpin recommended betting Rafael Devers to hit a home run against Dean Kremer. Kremer has a 3-5 record with a bloated 5.50 ERA and has surrendered 1.7 HR/9, while Fenway Park boosts pull-side power—especially for Boston hitters—because of the short right-field corner and wrap-around bleachers. Devers has seven of his nine long balls at home this year and owns a 48% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitching. With Walker Buehler giving Boston a pitching edge, Kingpin expects the Red Sox to control the game and give Devers multiple high-leverage at-bats against a shaky Baltimore bullpen that sports a 4.73 ERA.

Kingpin advised taking Tarik Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts. Skubal owns a 4-2 record with a 2.87 ERA and an elite 31% strikeout rate at Comerica Park, where the bigger dimensions suppress power and let him live in the zone. Cleveland ranks 28th in hard-hit percentage and is striking out 23.4% of the time against lefties over the last month. With Logan Allen expected to keep run scoring low, Kingpin projects a tight game that will keep Skubal on the mound deep into the seventh, giving him 100-plus pitch upside and a realistic path to 7–9 punch-outs.

Kingpin said Aaron Judge is a strong play for over 1.5 total bases in Colorado. The tout highlighted three angles: (1) Antonio Senzatela’s grisly 1-8 record and 6.34 ERA, noting the right-hander is allowing a .301 average and the sixth-highest hard-hit rate among qualified starters; (2) the altitude at Coors Field, which inflates both fly-ball distance and overall scoring—New York projects for the slate’s highest implied total; and (3) the rest of the Yankees’ order forcing Senzatela to pitch to Judge, as New York ranks top-3 in walk rate and ISO. With Will Warren owning a 4.05 ERA but solid 24% strikeout rate, Kingpin expects the Yankees to play from ahead, giving Judge 4–5 plate appearances to clear the 1.5-base prop.

Kingpin played Over 10 runs despite Mize’s talent. Afternoon start, 82-degree temps, and Coors’ 5,200-foot elevation boost run expectancy. The Rockies bullpen has logged the second-most innings in MLB and owns a 5.91 ERA, while Detroit’s lineup ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate. Colorado still posts a .748 OPS at home even in a down year. Kingpin projected 6-4 or 7-5 type final.

Kingpin played Over 9.5 runs at Fenway. Both starters carry shaky indicators: Leiter’s 12% walk rate and 1.45 HR/9, Bello’s 5.38 xERA. The Rangers have scored 14 runs in their last two games, and the Red Sox post a .820 OPS at home. Warm mid-60s temps with a slight breeze to left further inflate run expectancy. Kingpin projected double-digit scoring before the bullpens even enter.

Kingpin bet Over 8 runs even though eight of the last ten meetings went Under. Both bullpens rank bottom-10 in ERA, and Kris Bubic’s velocity was down 1.2 mph in his first rehab outing. Chicago’s lineup finally woke up, plating 17 runs across its Houston series, while KC averages 4.9 runs at home. Day-game temps in the mid-70s at Kauffman should help the ball carry.

Kingpin laid -1.5 with Detroit at -115 in Game 1 of the doubleheader. The Tigers sit 22-13 and have won 7 of 8; the Rockies are a league-worst 6-28. Casey Mize returns with a 2.70 ERA and 56% ground-ball rate that should tame Coors. Kyle Freeland sports a 5.70 ERA, .305 opponent average, and a 12% barrel rate. Detroit’s offense (5th in AL runs) just hung 13 on Milwaukee, and Colorado’s bullpen carries a 5.91 ERA. Kingpin projected a three-plus-run cushion.

Kingpin recommended Spencer Torkelson over 1.5 total bases. The Tigers first baseman leads the club with 10 HR and has a .934 OPS against left-handed pitching. Kyle Freeland has given up a .379 wOBA and 1.8 HR/9 to right-handed bats since 2023. At Coors Field’s thin air, a single gap-shot or early long ball should eclipse the mark quickly.

Kingpin advised Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 total bases. Witt is slugging .596 versus righties in 2025 and ranks in the 94th percentile of sprint speed, giving him extra ways to cash. Davis Martin allowed eight hits in five innings last start and owns a .286 expected batting average against. Witt hits in the heart of a KC lineup that has tormented Chicago (Royals 9-1 last 10 H2H), so two bags via double, triple, or multi-hit game are well within reach.

Kingpin grabbed Chicago +1.5 at -104 despite Kansas City being -245 straight up. Davis Martin brings a 3.52 ERA and above-average ground-ball rate, giving the White Sox a chance to keep it tight versus Kris Bubic, who is fresh off the IL and still displaying command issues (11% walk rate in rehab). Chicago has quietly won a series against Houston and covers run lines in seven of its last ten. The Royals are only 2-5 in Bubic’s last seven home starts, so a one-run game or outright Sox upset is live.

Kingpin targeted Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases. Devers owns a .580 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching at Fenway since 2023 and now faces rookie Jack Leiter, who has coughed up 4 homers in his first 15 MLB innings. With Leiter relying heavily on a fastball Devers crushes (career .420 xwOBA vs 4-seamers), a double off the Monster or a pull-side homer would clear the prop quickly.

Kingpin took Boston -137 on the moneyline. Rookie Jack Leiter owns a 4.58 ERA and was tagged for 6 runs on 8 hits (2 HR) in 4⅓ innings his last time out. The Sox average 5.1 runs per game at Fenway and hit .273 in day games. Brayan Bello’s surface ERA sits around 4.00, but Kingpin trusts him more than Leiter and a middling Texas bullpen. With Boston’s lineup slugging .463 at home, Kingpin sees the Red Sox outslugging Texas in a high-variance spot.

For totals players Kingpin leaned Under 8. Ryan has not surrendered more than one earned run in any road outing, and Baltimore averages just 3.3 runs away from Camden Yards. Dean Kremer is volatile but did post a quality start his last trip and faces a Minnesota lineup ranking 21st in wRC+. With a getaway-day lineup risk for both clubs, Kingpin expects a 4-2 or 5-2 type finish.

Kingpin laid the -1.5 run line with Minnesota at roughly +130. Joe Ryan’s 2.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP give the Twins a massive mound edge over Dean Kremer’s 5.73 ERA and .281 opponent average. Baltimore’s offense sits bottom-five in runs and strikes out a ton, while Minnesota’s bats get to attack an Orioles bullpen carrying a 4.59 ERA. With Ryan rarely giving up crooked numbers, Kingpin projected a comfortable two-plus-run victory.

Kingpin recommended betting Joe Ryan over 6.5 strikeouts. Ryan owns a 0.90 WHIP and a 47:5 K:BB through 40⅔ innings (better than 11 K/9). He now faces an Orioles lineup logging 299 strikeouts in 34 games (nearly 9 per game) while hitting just .223 and scoring 3.8 runs a night. Baltimore’s free-swinging profile plus Ryan’s 30% strikeout rate make seven punch-outs a realistic baseline, especially with Target Field weather projected in the low-60s and light wind in. Kingpin noted Ryan has not allowed more than one earned run in any road start this year, which secures the leash needed to work deep enough for the prop to cash.

Kingpin made Braves moneyline the ‘safest bet’ of the night. Bryce Elder owns a sizable talent edge on Ryan Feltner, and while Coors Field inflates run scoring, Colorado’s lineup ‘has little punch.’ Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud are expected to put up crooked numbers. A –1.5 run line was labeled ‘tempting’ because big wins are common in Denver’s thin air.

Kingpin acknowledged –300 is steep for a straight moneyline and instead steered bettors to Dodgers –1.5. Dustin May has been ‘solid,’ while Edward Cabrera faces the unenviable task of navigating Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in Chavez Ravine. With Los Angeles ‘loaded’ throughout the order, Kingpin projects a comfortable multi-run victory and noted Over 8.5 has merit if bettors want additional exposure.

Kingpin advised wagering on Mookie Betts 1+ hit. The perennial All-Star leads off for a juggernaut lineup, virtually guaranteeing four plate appearances against Cabrera and a mediocre Miami bullpen. Betts’ contact profile and ability to sprinkle doubles give this prop one of the highest floors on the entire slate.

Despite Detroit opening –115, Kingpin called Houston the value side at +105. The tout likes Ronel Blanco after his dominant 2024 and trusts an Astros order featuring Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, and Kyle Tucker in a hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Jack Flaherty’s recent shakiness pushes Kingpin toward the plus-money dog, and the article leans Over 7.5 because both lineups can score quickly.

Kingpin advised grabbing the Rangers moneyline at –110. Patrick Corbin has settled into Texas’s rotation and should benefit from facing an Oakland club with ‘one of the weakest offenses in the league.’ Meanwhile, JP Sears makes his first Athletics start in a hitter-friendly park with Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia lurking. A –1.5 run line was flagged as an attractive plus-money play if bettors believe Texas wins by two or more.

Kingpin recommended backing the Reds moneyline at –120. The write-up noted Andre Pallante’s inconsistency for St. Louis versus steadier veteran Nick Martinez. Cincinnati’s ‘young offense,’ highlighted by Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson, has been hot, and the Great American Ball Park crowd is expected to tilt momentum toward the home side. Run line (–1.5) was mentioned as a value booster for aggressive bettors.

Kingpin’s favorite player angle in Denver is Matt Olson 1+ RBI. The slugging first baseman draws a premium run-production environment versus Ryan Feltner and the Rockies’ bullpen in altitude. Even a sac fly could cash, and Olson’s homer potential is through the roof at Coors.

Kingpin suggested wagering on Kyle Tucker 1+ RBI. The left-handed slugger will likely bat cleanup against Flaherty, and his clutch track record plus Houston’s on-base machines ahead of him create multiple run-producing opportunities. Tucker’s power also gives bettors a one-swing path to cash.

Kingpin said the safest way to open Monday’s card is to back the Mets on the moneyline at –155. The write-up stressed that Griffin Canning’s command gives New York a clear edge over Trevor Williams, who “has struggled to keep runs off the board.” Kingpin added that Washington’s lineup is “thin,” while New York brings the thunder with Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez. With the Nationals showing little scoring ability so far in 2025, the tout expects the Mets to roll even on the road and recommends a run-line sprinkle (–1.5) for bettors chasing extra value.

Kingpin advised laying –120 with the Yankees. Rookie Will Warren showed enough in spring to be serviceable, while Baltimore is rushing Japanese veteran Tomoyuki Sugano back on short rest for his MLB debut. New York’s ‘potent lineup’—Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe—gives them a run-production ceiling the Orioles cannot match if Sugano is less than sharp. The article called the moneyline the ‘safer play,’ with an over-9.5 lean for total bettors.

Kingpin promoted a Marcus Semien 1+ hit prop. The second baseman faces his former team and generally bats atop the lineup, maximizing plate appearances against an untested JP Sears and a beleaguered Oakland bullpen. Consistency plus narrative juice makes the prop a core addition to same-game parlays.

Kingpin highlighted a Jose Ramirez 1+ hit (or 1+ RBI) prop as the best player angle in the Twins–Guardians clash. Ramirez is the centerpiece of Cleveland’s order and will bat from both sides against Ober and a shaky Minnesota relief corps. Because the total is only 7.5, even a single from Ramirez is expected to swing the box score in Cleveland’s favor.

For player props, Kingpin spotlighted Elly De La Cruz 1+ hit. The explosive shortstop has been a ‘breakout star’ and faces an erratic Pallante. One base knock cashes, and De La Cruz’s speed creates additional upside for bettors wanting extra-base or stolen-base escalators.

Kingpin circled an Aaron Judge 1+ RBI ticket. The logic is straightforward: Sugano is making a hurried debut and the Yankee slugger is a threat to leave the yard whenever he sees hittable fastballs. Even if Baltimore pitches around him, New York’s on-base machines ahead of Judge create multiple RBI opportunities.

Kingpin recommended the Guardians moneyline around –120. Cleveland’s rookie Gavin Williams “has impressed” and draws a plus spot in Progressive Field, whereas Bailey Ober has been “hit-or-miss.” The tout pointed to a Guardians offense featuring Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor that is “clicking” and projected them to scratch runs late once Minnesota’s bullpen appears. A –1.5 alt line was tagged as a secondary, higher-payout option.

Kingpin advised jumping on a Pete Alonso 1+ RBI prop. The reasoning: Williams should have to throw strikes to the slugger with runners on, and Alonso remains “one of baseball’s elite power bats.” The article notes New York’s stacked heart of the order, which means Alonso is likely to hit with men aboard multiple times. A home run would obviously cash, but even a single to the gap is enough for the ticket.

Kingpin recommended laying the ‑190 with Cincinnati because the matchup at Coors is lopsided. Hunter Greene has blossomed into a front-line arm (4-2, 1.75 ERA, 34% K-rate) and his new splitter has held hitters to a .104 xBA. He draws a Rockies lineup that ranks dead last in wRC+ (71) and is just 4-21 overall. Colorado counters with Antonio Senzatela, whose 6.02 xERA and 17% strikeout rate spell trouble against a Reds offense featuring Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Matt McLain—all three posting .200+ isolated power so far. The total is sitting near 10, but Kingpin believes most of those runs come from the Cincinnati side; Greene’s 97-mph heater plays even at altitude, while Senzatela’s pitch-to-contact approach is a nightmare in Coors. Expect Cincinnati to build an early lead and let its revamped bullpen (3.46 ERA) slam the door.

Kingpin advised jumping on the Tigers moneyline (around ‑125) in Game 1 of the double-header because Detroit owns advantages on both the mound and at the plate. Casey Mize has rediscovered his 2021 form, opening 2025 with a 3-1 record, a 2.22 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate. Baltimore counters with rookie Brandon Young, who is making only his second big-league start after allowing four runs in 3.1 innings his first time out. Detroit’s middle of the order—Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Kerry Carpenter—has combined for a 138 wRC+ versus right-handers, and Young’s shaky command (5.2 BB/9 in Triple-A) sets the stage for crooked numbers. Comerica Park will be damp from the rain delay, further favoring a ground-ball pitcher like Mize. Kingpin expects Detroit to control the game wire-to-wire and labeled it his favorite early-window side.

For a plus-money player prop, Kingpin circled Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run against Miami spot-starter Connor Gillispie. Gillispie compiled a 5.18 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 in Triple-A before a surprise call-up, and his sinker tops out at 92 mph—right in Rodriguez’s wheelhouse (J-Rod owns a .342 ISO versus pitches 93 mph and below). Seattle’s star outfielder has heated up with three bombs and a .667 SLG in his last seven games, and T-Mobile Park’s humidity forecast (60%) typically adds a bit of carry. With Luis Castillo expected to give the Mariners a lead, Rodriguez should see a full four to five plate appearances. Kingpin noted that sportsbooks were hanging +365 on the HR prop Friday night and expects that number to close closer to +320, urging bettors to grab the favorable price early.

Kingpin said the Yankees are a must-play on the moneyline because every key box is checked. New York is 15-11 and hands the ball to new ace Max Fried, who has been untouchable so far (4-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.16 ERA), a solid arm but one who has already served up five homers in April and now has to navigate Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. Offensively the Bombers are humming: Aaron Judge already has 7 HR through 26 games while Anthony Rizzo is riding a .310 OBP/.500 SLG over his last ten. Kingpin noted that Fried’s heavy ground-ball profile (54% GB rate) neutralizes the Blue Jays’ power duo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and that New York’s bullpen owns the sixth-best ERA in baseball (3.09). Laying the roughly ‑180 price is justified because of the starting-pitching edge, the hot lineup, and the home crowd advantage at Yankee Stadium.

Kingpin highlighted Aaron Judge as an "anytime HR" target. Judge has cleared the fences seven times in just 26 contests (a 43-homer pace) and owns a gaudy 55% hard-hit rate. He now faces Kevin Gausman, who has been far more homer-prone on the road (1.4 HR/9 since 2024) and profiles poorly in Yankee Stadium, where the short porch to right magnifies every fly ball. The wind is projected to be blowing out to left at 9 mph, and Judge already has a .706 SLG at home this season. With New York’s entire lineup locked in, Gausman will be forced into the zone, giving Judge multiple high-leverage swings. At +200 or better, Kingpin believes the slugger is the premier power prop on the Saturday slate.

Kingpin backed the Angels moneyline behind Kyle Hendricks’ 3.33 ERA, 55% ground‑ball rate, and elite walk suppression versus a Giants team batting .230. Rookie Eric Roupp debuts for San Francisco, and Mike Trout anchors an offense slugging .472 versus southpaws. L.A. has won Hendricks’ last two starts, and despite a shaky bullpen, projects to hand closer Carlos Estevez a late lead.

Kingpin took Olson Over 0.5 RBI. Olson owns a .991 OPS vs right‑handers and drives in runs in 60% of Braves wins this season. Woods Richardson allows a .372 OBP to lefties, meaning Acuna and Albies likely reach ahead of Olson. One gapper or long fly should bring at least one teammate home.

Kingpin bet Severino Over 5.5 Ks. Milwaukee’s lineup owns a 26% strikeout rate and whiffs 34% on sliders—the pitch Severino throws 33% of the time. He fanned seven his last outing and should work six frames against a lineup that chases 32% of pitches outside the zone.

Kingpin played Tatis Over 1.5 total bases. Tatis is slashing .348/.417/.652 with a 55% hard‑hit rate and draws Hayden Wesneski’s middling 92‑mph heater he’s slugging .700 against. With multi‑hit games in four of his last five and Minute Maid’s short LF porch beckoning, Kingpin envisions at least a double or pair of singles.

Kingpin laid -1.5 with Atlanta. Chris Sale’s 3.45 ERA and strikeout per inning face a Minnesota lineup down Byron Buxton and ranking 23rd in OPS versus lefties. Rookie Simeon Woods Richardson’s 5.40 ERA and below‑average command get tested by an offense leading the NL in homers (Acuna, Olson, Riley). Braves bullpen sports a 2.88 ERA versus the Twins’ 4.76, giving Atlanta a clear runway to a multi‑run win.

Kingpin attacked Over 11.5 in Nationals‑Rockies, explaining that rookie Brad Lord (4.82 ERA) and Kyle Freeland (4.88 ERA) both allow contact and neither bullpen holds a sub‑5 ERA. Denver’s 5,200‑foot elevation plus 65‑degree temps historically add 27% to run scoring. The over is 6‑2 in the last eight head‑to‑heads at Coors, and both lineups feature several pull‑side power bats (Nolan Jones, Kris Bryant, CJ Abrams).

Kingpin took San Diego on the moneyline, pointing to their league‑best 15‑4 record, .247 team average, and Michael King’s 2.42 ERA plus complete‑game shutout last time out. Houston scores just 3.67 runs per game and faces a sinker/slider righty while Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman slump under .220. Padres bullpen owns a 2.68 staff ERA, tops in MLB, giving them edges on mound and at plate.

Kingpin played Under 8 in A’s‑Brewers. Rookie Chad Patrick has a 1.76 ERA, 58% ground‑ball rate, and faces an Oakland lineup with the league’s worst wRC+ versus righties. Luis Severino’s 3.18 xERA and slider usage should stifle a Brewers offense that ranks 25th in average and has cashed the under in four of five. Both clubs’ cold temperatures (roof closed) further suppress run production.

Kingpin picked Alonso to homer. The Polar Bear owns a .352 ISO versus southpaws since 2023 and already sits at 10 bombs on the season. Matthew Liberatore has surrendered six of his nine career homers to right‑handed sluggers on elevated four‑seamers—Alonso’s wheelhouse pitch. Warm spring air in Queens only helps the ball carry.

Kingpin hammered Greene Over 7.5 Ks. Greene’s new splitter has pushed his swinging‑strike rate to 17.8%, and the Orioles whiff 31% of the time on pitches in the upper third—the exact zone where Greene lives with 100‑mph heat. He has eclipsed eight strikeouts in three consecutive starts and is projected for ~102 pitches.

Kingpin took Jones to homer at + odds. Jones sports a .598 SLG at Coors with a 17‑degree average launch angle—perfect for the park. Brad Lord’s 42% fly‑ball rate and middling 91‑mph fastball give Jones, who owns a 114‑mph max‑exit this year, a juicy matchup to clear the right‑field seats.

Kingpin backed Tampa moneyline, calling Shane Baz’s 29% K rate and 95‑mph heater a mismatch for a Yankees lineup with a 25% K rate versus high fastballs. Carlos Carrasco’s 5.94 ERA and 2.0 HR/9 meet a Rays club that exploits platoons and owns MLB’s best bullpen xFIP (3.11). Tampa has taken five of the last seven at the Trop, a park the Yankee sluggers historically underperform in.