Seattle is -115 (54% implied) but Kingpin AI assigns a 57% win chance, good for +6-7% EV. The model calls Oakland one of baseball’s weakest clubs and believes the Mariners’ superior lineup and pitching should be priced steeper, so the modest juice is worth paying.

Listed at +100 (50% implied), Arizona owns a 53% true win probability per Kingpin AI, resulting in +6% EV. Home field and an underrated roster tilt the matchup slightly toward the Snakes despite the Mets’ star power, making the even-money ticket attractive.

Pittsburgh at +130 holds a 43% implied chance, but Kingpin AI sees 46% (≈+6% EV). The model downplays St. Louis’s traditional home aura and favors the Pirates’ energetic young core to pull the upset often enough to justify a wager.

Houston sits at -105 (51% implied) while Kingpin AI rates the Astros at 54% to win, good for +5% EV. Despite Milwaukee’s strong home record, the model trusts the Astros’ deeper lineup and playoff-tested staff to prevail more than a coin-flip, making the near-even moneyline worth laying.

Kingpin AI highlighted Chicago at +205 as the day’s largest misprice. Odds say 33% win probability, the model says 37%, translating to a hefty +12-13% EV. With both AL Central teams sputtering, the algorithm believes the Royals are over-favored, so the plus-money shot on the Sox is worth firing.

At +125 the Reds carry a 44% implied chance, but Kingpin AI projects 48%, yielding +8% EV. The Braves are market darlings, yet the model flags a tighter game—likely thanks to the pitching matchup and Cincinnati’s recent form—making the Reds a profitable underdog stab.

Kingpin AI recommended Padres ML at +130. Yankees’ name value pushes the implied win probability to 57% for New York, but the model gives San Diego a 47% shot (vs 43% implied), creating +8% EV. A potentially favorable pitching matchup and an overrated Yankee offense underpin the pick.

Kingpin AI advised taking the Nationals at +100. Even money implies a 50% chance, yet the model gives Washington 52%, yielding +4% EV. Home field and a more balanced matchup than public perception drive the edge, turning an apparent pick’em into a small value play.

Kingpin AI said Miami is a live home dog at +140. The line implies a 42% win probability, but the model pegs the Marlins at 45%, creating roughly +8% expected value. The piece notes the Dodgers’ reputation inflates the price, while Miami’s home‐field edge and competitive roster make the matchup closer to a coin-flip.

Giants +125 implies a 44% shot; Kingpin AI puts it at 47%, creating +6% EV. The preview cites San Francisco’s balanced roster and possible pitching edge over the Cubs, concluding that bookmakers overstate Chicago’s home advantage.