Kingpin Staff endorsed Seattle at ‑160 over Miami. Bryce Miller has trimmed his walk rate from 8.1% to 5.6% year-over-year and enters with a 2.95 ERA. Rookie Max Meyer, meanwhile, has a 1.38 WHIP and has surrendered four homers in 17 innings. T-Mobile Park suppresses runs (park factor 0.86), and Seattle’s offense, led by Eugenio Suarez and Ty France, owns a 113 wRC+ at home versus right-handers, compared to Miami’s league-worst 74. Seattle’s bullpen (3.02 ERA) gives them a clear late-inning advantage.

Kingpin Staff played the Giants moneyline (-135) with Jordan Hicks hosting Jack Leiter. Hicks’ move to the rotation has yielded a 2.45 ERA and 60% ground-ball rate, while San Francisco’s 17-9 record at Oracle (formerly AT&T) is buoyed by a league-best 1.87 bullpen ERA at home. Leiter, making only his second MLB start, issued four walks in 3.2 innings last time out. Kingpin noted San Francisco’s patient lineup (top-5 walk rate) should force Leiter’s pitch count up early and let the Giants’ underrated offense win the middle-innings battle.

Kingpin Staff backed the Twins moneyline (-160) over the visiting Dodgers. Joe Ryan sports a 2.84 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, and faces Dodgers prospect Jose Soriano, who has lasted just 4.1 IP on average with a 12% walk rate. Despite the star power of Betts and Freeman, Los Angeles ranks only 18th in OPS versus right-handers in April. Minnesota’s balanced order (Buxton, Correa, Julien) owns the 8th-best hard-contact rate and should capitalize on Soriano’s control lapses, while Target Field’s cool temps suppress the Dodgers’ power upside.

Kingpin Staff pushed Detroit -1.5 (+160) against Baltimore. They highlighted Tarik Skubal’s breakout—1.98 ERA, 34% strikeout rate and 6.6 IP per start—versus Dean Kremer’s 5.12 ERA and 1.6 HR/9. Detroit’s 15-10 record has been powered by a lineup that ranks 6th in wRC+, led by Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, while Baltimore sits 26th in runs. Because Skubal routinely works into the seventh, Detroit’s elite late-inning pen (2.89 ERA) often enters with a lead, making the run-line payout attractive.

Kingpin Staff encouraged taking Over 10.5 runs in Reds–Rockies. Coors Field has produced 12.4 runs per game this season and offers a 25% boost to run scoring. Rookie Ryan Feltner owns a 5.59 ERA and the league’s lowest ground-ball rate (29%), while Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo, although talented, is making only his third start off the IL and has allowed a .340 xwOBA in two road outings. With both bullpens carrying ERAs north of 4.70, Kingpin expects crooked numbers in the middle innings to push the game well into double digits.

Kingpin Staff recommended Tyler Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts against Pittsburgh. Glasnow’s fastball/slider combo has produced a 36% K-rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate through four starts. The Pirates strike out 25.9% of the time vs right-handed pitching and rank 28th in contact percentage. With Los Angeles favored by ‑310, Kingpin projects Glasnow to work at least six innings, giving him 95-plus pitch upside and a strong path to 7+ punch-outs.

Kingpin Staff recommended Under 8.5 runs in the Gausman-versus-Fried matinee at Yankee Stadium. Kevin Gausman owns a 2.31 ERA with a 31% K-rate when healthy, while Max Fried is a former All-Star whose 55% ground-ball rate keeps the ball in the park. Both clubs boast top-10 bullpens by ERA, and Kingpin noted that day-night double-header openers are historically 57% to the under since 2019 because managers empty the high-leverage relievers early. With the temperature forecast in the low-60s and a slight 7 mph in-blowing wind, they called the total "a half-run too high."

Kingpin Staff advised betting the Mets on the -1.5 run line at -155 ML / -1.5 RL. They pointed to New York’s 18-8 start and +35 run differential, noting the lineup is "red-hot" while Washington’s offense sits near the bottom of every major category. On the mound, New York sends Tylor Megill, a “sturdy mid-rotation arm,” against rookie Mitchell Parker making just his second big-league appearance. With the Nationals already striking out at one of the league’s highest clips and producing little power, Kingpin expects the Mets to “cruise early,” combining timely hitting with a clear pitching advantage to win by multiple runs.

For player props, Kingpin Staff suggested Tarik Skubal over 7.5 strikeouts. The Orioles line-up owns the league’s highest K-rate (27.8%) against left-handed pitching, while Skubal’s four-seam/changeup combo has generated a 15.7% swinging-strike rate. He has cleared eight strikeouts in three of his last four outings and averages 96 pitches per start, giving him the volume to go over again.

Kingpin Staff circled Pete Alonso as an anytime-home-run target against Washington rookie Mitchell Parker. Alonso enters the day in a "hot streak" and already owns 7 homers in his last 15 games. Parker’s fastball sat just 92 mph in his debut and produced a 48% hard-hit rate, numbers Kingpin says are tailor-made for Alonso’s pull-side power. With Nationals Park yielding a 15% HR boost to right-handed batters in April weather, they believe one mistake heater is all the slugger needs.

Kingpin Staff likes Marcus Semien to go deep against JP Sears. Semien owns a .614 slugging percentage versus left‑handed pitching since 2023 and already took the A’s deep last night. Sears’ four‑seamer sits 92 mph, a velocity band where Semien has a +5 run value. With winds blowing out to left and Semien’s aggressive pull profile, the home‑run prop offers plus money in a park playing smaller since the A’s temporary move to Sutter Health Park.

Kingpin Staff laid the -1.5 with Texas, noting a massive talent gap. The Rangers average 6.2 runs per game the past week and face an A’s bullpen with a 5.91 ERA. Rookie Kumar Rocker showed improved slider command in his first win (10 swinging strikes on 34 sliders) and should be backed by a lineup that punishes lefties and righties alike. JP Sears has held his own (3.13 ERA) but rarely works beyond the sixth, exposing that weak relief corps. Texas’ offense projects for 7+ runs, making a multi‑run cushion likely.

Kingpin Staff backed San Francisco with Logan Webb on the hill. Webb sports a 62% ground‑ball rate and 2.40 ERA, thriving in Oracle Park’s pitcher‑friendly confines. Milwaukee erupted for 11 runs yesterday but now draws the park’s marine layer plus a starter they managed only two earned runs off in their last meeting. The Giants’ rested high‑leverage trio (Rogers, Hicks, Doval) gives them a late‑inning leverage edge over a Brewers pen that threw 4.2 frames Tuesday.

Kingpin Staff took Philadelphia on the moneyline, trusting Zack Wheeler to halt a two‑game slide. Wheeler’s 31% strikeout rate and 2.91 FIP dwarf David Peterson’s 18% K rate. The Mets have scored only nine total runs in Wheeler’s last four outings against them, while the Phillies’ offense owns a .355 wOBA versus lefties since 2023. The staff expects the bats to wake up after facing two straight right‑handers, projecting Philly for 4‑5 runs and Wheeler for a quality start.

Despite Sandy Alcantara’s ugly 7.27 ERA, Kingpin Staff backed Miami on the moneyline, citing underlying metrics: a 96 mph average fastball and 27% CSW that mirror his 2022 Cy Young campaign. LoanDepot Park suppresses homers (0.79 HR factor), and Brady Singer’s 4.35 xERA suggests regression against a Marlins lineup that has scored in late‑inning bursts all series. Miami’s bullpen (3.21 ERA) gives them a back‑end edge, and the Fish are riding a three‑game win streak.

Kingpin Staff laid the run‑and‑a‑half with Atlanta, pointing to two clear mismatches. Miles Mikolas owns a 7.64 ERA and a career‑low 14% strikeout rate, allowing hard contact to both sides of the plate. Bryce Elder (7.20 ERA) has also struggled, but the Braves’ lineup (Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley) ranks top‑3 in MLB hard‑hit rate and just tagged the Cards for double‑digit runs last night. With Atlanta at home and St. Louis’ bats ice‑cold—24th in OPS vs right‑handed pitching—the staff expects the Braves to jump out early and win by “a couple of runs” at Truist Park.

Even while picking the Giants, Kingpin Staff played Freddy Peralta over 7.5 strikeouts. Peralta’s 34% strikeout rate is fourth‑best among qualifiers, and the Giants whiff 26% of the time versus right‑handed four‑seamers and sliders—the two pitches Peralta throws 81% of the time. Cool Bay Area temps should allow him to work deep; projections have him for 104 pitches and 8‑9 Ks.

Kingpin Staff played Luis Arraez over 1.5 total bases. The reigning batting champ owns a .356 career average versus right‑handers and whiffs only 5% of the time. Brady Singer’s heavy sinker has been tattooed for a .302 expected average, and Arraez sees that pitch 48% of the time in his lead‑off spot. Two singles or one gapper would cash in the spacious alleys of Miami.

Kingpin Staff targeted Matt Olson to leave the yard against contact‑oriented Miles Mikolas. Olson’s 54% fly‑ball rate versus righties and league‑best 15.7% barrel rate meet Mikolas’ 90+ mph average exit velocity allowed and 1.8 HR/9 so far. With temperatures in the mid‑70s and the wind out to right center, the left‑handed slugger projects for an elevated HR probability, making his + odds home‑run prop a value play.

Kingpin Staff hit over 7.5 strikeouts for Zack Wheeler. He averages 10.9 K/9 this season, is stretched to 105 pitches, and faces a Mets lineup with a 24% K rate versus power righties. Wheeler’s slider generated a 42% whiff rate in his last start, a pitch New York hitters slug just .318 against. Projected to work 7 innings, the model gives him 9.1 median Ks, well above the posted number.