Kingpin Staff likes Marcus Semien to go deep against JP Sears. Semien owns a .614 slugging percentage versus left‑handed pitching since 2023 and already took the A’s deep last night. Sears’ four‑seamer sits 92 mph, a velocity band where Semien has a +5 run value. With winds blowing out to left and Semien’s aggressive pull profile, the home‑run prop offers plus money in a park playing smaller since the A’s temporary move to Sutter Health Park.

Kingpin Staff laid the -1.5 with Texas, noting a massive talent gap. The Rangers average 6.2 runs per game the past week and face an A’s bullpen with a 5.91 ERA. Rookie Kumar Rocker showed improved slider command in his first win (10 swinging strikes on 34 sliders) and should be backed by a lineup that punishes lefties and righties alike. JP Sears has held his own (3.13 ERA) but rarely works beyond the sixth, exposing that weak relief corps. Texas’ offense projects for 7+ runs, making a multi‑run cushion likely.

Kingpin Staff backed San Francisco with Logan Webb on the hill. Webb sports a 62% ground‑ball rate and 2.40 ERA, thriving in Oracle Park’s pitcher‑friendly confines. Milwaukee erupted for 11 runs yesterday but now draws the park’s marine layer plus a starter they managed only two earned runs off in their last meeting. The Giants’ rested high‑leverage trio (Rogers, Hicks, Doval) gives them a late‑inning leverage edge over a Brewers pen that threw 4.2 frames Tuesday.

Kingpin Staff took Philadelphia on the moneyline, trusting Zack Wheeler to halt a two‑game slide. Wheeler’s 31% strikeout rate and 2.91 FIP dwarf David Peterson’s 18% K rate. The Mets have scored only nine total runs in Wheeler’s last four outings against them, while the Phillies’ offense owns a .355 wOBA versus lefties since 2023. The staff expects the bats to wake up after facing two straight right‑handers, projecting Philly for 4‑5 runs and Wheeler for a quality start.

Despite Sandy Alcantara’s ugly 7.27 ERA, Kingpin Staff backed Miami on the moneyline, citing underlying metrics: a 96 mph average fastball and 27% CSW that mirror his 2022 Cy Young campaign. LoanDepot Park suppresses homers (0.79 HR factor), and Brady Singer’s 4.35 xERA suggests regression against a Marlins lineup that has scored in late‑inning bursts all series. Miami’s bullpen (3.21 ERA) gives them a back‑end edge, and the Fish are riding a three‑game win streak.

Kingpin Staff laid the run‑and‑a‑half with Atlanta, pointing to two clear mismatches. Miles Mikolas owns a 7.64 ERA and a career‑low 14% strikeout rate, allowing hard contact to both sides of the plate. Bryce Elder (7.20 ERA) has also struggled, but the Braves’ lineup (Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley) ranks top‑3 in MLB hard‑hit rate and just tagged the Cards for double‑digit runs last night. With Atlanta at home and St. Louis’ bats ice‑cold—24th in OPS vs right‑handed pitching—the staff expects the Braves to jump out early and win by “a couple of runs” at Truist Park.

Even while picking the Giants, Kingpin Staff played Freddy Peralta over 7.5 strikeouts. Peralta’s 34% strikeout rate is fourth‑best among qualifiers, and the Giants whiff 26% of the time versus right‑handed four‑seamers and sliders—the two pitches Peralta throws 81% of the time. Cool Bay Area temps should allow him to work deep; projections have him for 104 pitches and 8‑9 Ks.

Kingpin Staff played Luis Arraez over 1.5 total bases. The reigning batting champ owns a .356 career average versus right‑handers and whiffs only 5% of the time. Brady Singer’s heavy sinker has been tattooed for a .302 expected average, and Arraez sees that pitch 48% of the time in his lead‑off spot. Two singles or one gapper would cash in the spacious alleys of Miami.

Kingpin Staff targeted Matt Olson to leave the yard against contact‑oriented Miles Mikolas. Olson’s 54% fly‑ball rate versus righties and league‑best 15.7% barrel rate meet Mikolas’ 90+ mph average exit velocity allowed and 1.8 HR/9 so far. With temperatures in the mid‑70s and the wind out to right center, the left‑handed slugger projects for an elevated HR probability, making his + odds home‑run prop a value play.

Kingpin Staff hit over 7.5 strikeouts for Zack Wheeler. He averages 10.9 K/9 this season, is stretched to 105 pitches, and faces a Mets lineup with a 24% K rate versus power righties. Wheeler’s slider generated a 42% whiff rate in his last start, a pitch New York hitters slug just .318 against. Projected to work 7 innings, the model gives him 9.1 median Ks, well above the posted number.