Murray views Ben Griffin as a sharp flyer at +9000 outright and +320 Top-20. Griffin missed the cut at the John Deere because of horrific putting, yet still gained strokes tee-to-green and ranks top-30 in SG: Putting over the last six months. The analyst noted Portrush rewards relentless fairway and green finding—areas where Griffin excels. Although Griffin missed the Open cut in both 2023 and 2024, Murray believes the 27-year-old’s improved all-around game and accuracy make the market’s 90-1 number too long.

After re-examining his numbers, Kyle Murray endorsed Justin Thomas at +5000 outright and +200 Top-20. In Murray’s mixed-conditions model Thomas ranks 11th in putting, 14th in approach, 17th around the green, 15th tee-to-green and 7th overall—elite baselines disguised by recent volatility. Thomas is also 20th in total SG on links/coastal courses over the last two seasons. Murray acknowledged JT’s lack of recent Open success but argued his balanced statistical profile and improved putting make him impossible to ignore at 50-1.

Kyle Murray labeled Sepp Straka a live long-shot at +5000 outright and +180 Top-20. Straka’s recent form features a 7th at the Scottish Open and 3rd at the Memorial. Although he missed the cut in all three majors this season, he posted three Top-20s in majors over the previous two years. Straka ranks inside the Top-10 in total strokes-gained on links/coastal venues since 2023, driven by elite accuracy, high GIR percentage and low bogey rate—traits Murray thinks are critical at a windy Royal Portrush.

Murray recommended Viktor Hovland at +3000 outright and +330 Top-10, arguing recent results show his swing tweaks are paying off. Hovland finished 3rd at the U.S. Open and T11 at the Scottish Open, giving him three Top-14 finishes in his last four Open Championships. In Murray’s model Hovland ranks 2nd in SG: Approach and 7th in Ball-Striking for this field. With his long-standing weakness—the short game—showing incremental improvement, Murray believes a neutral week around the greens puts Hovland firmly in the mix at Portrush.

Kyle Murray backed Tommy Fleetwood at +2800 outright and +250 Top-10, noting that a cold putter masked elite ball-striking during Fleetwood’s T34 at the Scottish Open. Fleetwood ranks top-10 in this field for SG: Approach, Tee-to-Green, Ball-Striking and Total SG over the last six months, and he finished runner-up the last time Royal Portrush hosted the Open in 2019. Murray emphasized Fleetwood’s long-term success on links/coastal tracks, arguing his current form plus course history make him a strong breakthrough candidate at Portrush.

Kyle Murray said Xander Schauffele is mis-priced at +2500 outright and +260 for a Top-10 despite being the reigning Open champion. Schauffele led last week’s Scottish Open field in strokes-gained approach and logged a T8 even while losing strokes with the putter. Over the past 12 months he sits 4th in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green among this week’s field. On links and coastal layouts he ranks 2nd in total strokes-gained behind only Scottie Scheffler. Murray believes a merely average putting week at Royal Portrush will put Schauffele squarely in the hunt to defend, making 25-1 a value play.

Kyle Murray grabbed Keith Mitchell +350 for a top-20, embracing the Georgia Bulldog’s extreme volatility. Mitchell ranks top-15 on TOUR in driving distance and is 11th in strokes-gained off-the-tee this season, a combination Murray believes will create eagle opportunities on Quail Hollow’s reachable par-5s. He joked that Mitchell could be "12-over by the eighth hole" if it goes sideways, but in betting long-shots he prefers that variance, especially with softened fairways minimizing rollout and accentuating pure carry. Mitchell’s spike-week history—four career top-10s on courses over 7,400 yards—makes the +350 number stand out versus similar drivers priced near +250.

Kyle Murray echoed Aguiar’s ceiling case but kept it tighter, betting Min Woo Lee at +650 for a top-10. Murray is leaning into the distance-plus-variance archetype this week, arguing that 7,500-yard Quail Hollow will play even longer with Friday/Saturday rain. The softer greens mitigate Lee’s inconsistent iron play by allowing his towering long irons to hold the surface, while his elite club-head speed creates extra scoring chances on par-5s. Murray sees the +650 tag as mis-priced relative to comparable bombers listed closer to +400 and likes that the market bakes in Lee’s volatility, giving bettors a high-payout path if his putter cooperates.

Kyle Murray said Corey Conners is the best number in the entire mid-tier, grabbing him outright at 70-1 on FanDuel while other books are already as low as 50-1. Murray noted Conners’ elite recent ball-striking profile—13th in total strokes gained, ninth in ball striking, 14th off the tee and 11th tee-to-green over the last six months—arguing that those metrics put him on par with players priced in the 40-1 range. Quail Hollow’s 7,500-plus yards and 41 % of approaches from 200+ yards play directly into Conners’ strength with long-iron proximity. Murray conceded the Canadian’s closing equity is unproven, so he is also sprinkling top-10 and top-20 markets, but believes the 70-1 outright is too much value to pass up.

Kyle Murray said the +450 outright number on Rory McIlroy (and similarly priced Scottie Scheffler) is too short to justify a wager, explaining that his rule is to avoid golfers listed shorter than 10-1 because the hold on favorites crushes bettor ROI. Instead, Murray plans to deploy McIlroy heavily in DFS contests where salary caps, not long odds, determine value. He is hunting longer outright numbers elsewhere while letting the betting market’s obsession with the top two drain value from the rest of the field.