Larry Harstein also took the Eagles over 11.5 wins. He highlighted that Philadelphia returns all but one starter and immediately replaced RT depth after losing Mekhi Becton. The draft refilled defensive departures, and re-signing Lane Johnson keeps the elite OL intact. Harstein likes the timing of a Week-9 bye for rest before the stretch run and projects the balanced roster to hit 12 wins despite a tough schedule.

Larry Harstein leaned to the under on Kansas City’s 11.5-win total at –118. He pointed out the Chiefs were a perfect 11-0 in one-score games last season, a number he views as unsustainable. Kansas City faces the league’s sixth-toughest schedule, opening with the Chargers, Ravens, Eagles and Lions and playing five prime-time games in their first eight contests. Harstein noted divisional improvement—Las Vegas now has a competent QB/HC combo, while Denver and the Chargers are on the rise—and flagged the loss of All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, leaving a rookie coming off injury to protect Patrick Mahomes. Even with Rashee Rice returning, Harstein expects some natural regression and prefers the under 11.5 wins.