Hartstein took the opposite stance, playing the Over on Hall’s 900.5 rushing-yard number. He blamed last season’s modest totals on two factors no longer in play: New York’s pass-heavy approach and Aaron Rodgers letting the play clock bleed, which left the Jets dead last in pace. With Scott Turner hired as passing-game coordinator and already preaching ‘physical, run-first football,’ Hartstein expects a faster tempo and a heavier rushing script. More total snaps plus an emphasis on establishing the run should push Hall past the 1,000-yard milestone, even if defenses stack the box.

Hartstein hammered the Over on Justin Fields’ 14.5 passing-TD prop (–120 Under / +100 Over). Fields tossed 17 scores in just 15 games for Chicago, now gains a true WR1 in Garrett Wilson plus a rookie tight end the front office ‘loves,’ and will enjoy a long leash because his backups are 34-year-old Tyrod Taylor and UFL MVP Adrian Martinez. With no real bench threat, Fields is assured 17 starts if healthy, which Hartstein believes will push him well past 15 touchdowns.

Hartstein recommended betting Cleveland at +850 to finish with the league’s worst record. He pointed out that the Browns face the NFL’s second-hardest schedule behind only the Giants and enter 2024 without a viable quarterback solution after punting on the position in the draft. Surrendering a high Day-2 pick underscored a long-term rebuild, and he does not expect the current roster to muster more than three or four wins. He dubbed the Jets ‘too competent and scrappy’ for this market, making Cleveland the clear value.

Larry Hartstein prefers the +130 Under on the Jets’ 5.5-win total, arguing the roster simply is not ready to compete right now. He noted the departures of veteran leaders—Davante Adams, top corner D.J. Reed and others—plus a quiet free-agency period headlined only by role players such as Josh Reynolds and Andre Cisco. Hartstein believes the front office is positioning for next year’s quarterback class rather than 2024 success. With minimal proven talent and little depth, he projects just four or five victories and considers the plus-money Under the sharper side.

Larry Hartstein recommended betting Joe Burrow over 4,150 passing yards at roughly even money, calling the number "crazy low." Burrow piled up 4,900 yards and 43 touchdowns last season despite playing part of the year with a sore wrist and behind a middling interior line. Hartstein argued Cincinnati’s offense will be even more pass-centric in 2024 thanks to Chase Brown’s receiving chops that extend drives on dump-offs, functioning as an extension of the run game. He also cited Burrow’s 108 passer rating and league-leading 65% early-down pass rate under Zac Taylor as indicators that volume will remain sky-high. With elite weapons Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins healthy and a schedule featuring seven secondaries that ranked 20th or worse in EPA per drop-back, Hartstein projected another 4,700–5,000-yard campaign, comfortably clearing the posted total.

Larry Hartstein said Jamar Chase is still mispriced at +950 to win Offensive Player of the Year. He reminded listeners that Chase erupted for 1,700 receiving yards last season while leading the NFL in yards after catch, touchdowns, targets, and receptions. Hartstein expects an equally explosive follow-up because defenses must devote safety help to Tee Higgins and honor Joe Burrow’s down-field accuracy, leaving Chase in favorable single-coverage looks. With Cincinnati projected to rank top-five in pass rate and facing five bottom-half secondaries in the fantasy playoffs, Hartstein believes Chase has a clear path to another 1,600-plus yards and 12-plus TDs—production that historically wins the award when a quarterback is not the runaway MVP. He recommended betting the +950 before it shortens into the single digits.

Hartstein projected another monster season from Joe Burrow for fantasy and prop bettors, citing last year’s near-5,000-yard, 43-TD pace despite a compromised wrist and shaky interior line. With contract-secured weapons Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins plus an anticipated interior O-line upgrade, Larry sees little standing between Burrow and 5,000 yards again—aside from injury. He labeled Burrow’s standard passing props (posted near pick’em) as fair buys and said season-long fantasy managers can draft him with confidence in the second or third quarterback tier.

Hartstein recommended sprinkling on Chase Brown at 100-1 for Offensive Player of the Year after the market already cut him from 200-1. He reminded listeners that once Zack Moss went down last season, Brown averaged 23.5 touches and 120 scrimmage yards per game, demonstrating true bell-cow potential. In an offense that forces defenses to commit resources to stop Burrow, Chase and Higgins, Brown should see light boxes and massive lanes. Because OPOY traditionally honors non-quarterbacks posting eye-popping totals, Larry believes Brown’s pathway to 1,700+ combo yards and double-digit TDs is realistic and the odds are mispriced.

Larry Hartstein dismissed Joe Burrow’s +650 MVP price, explaining the award almost always goes to a quarterback on a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. He doubts Cincinnati’s porous defense and brutal road schedule will allow them to secure a top seed, regardless of Burrow’s gaudy statistics. Hartstein also noted Burrow admitted his surgically repaired wrist still is not 100%, reinforcing the idea that a statistical explosion alone may not overcome seeding bias with voters.

At 10-to-1 to win the AFC, Hartstein felt the Bengals remain a high-variance side that needs longer odds. He acknowledged the offense can beat any team 38-31, but noted they trailed on only 31% of snaps last year while still losing eight games because the pass rush vanished late. Even after adding DT TJ Slaton from Green Bay, too many things—including signer issues for Hendrickson and rookie Shamar Stewart—must break perfectly on defense. Larry would require a bigger number before investing in a Super Bowl run.

Hartstein passed on Cincinnati at +220 to capture the AFC North, saying he needs at least 3-to-1 before considering a wager. He views Baltimore as the clear favorite and pointed to Cincinnati’s rugged road slate—Steelers, Jets, Patriots, Browns, Dolphins, Ravens and Bills—as too big a hurdle. With Pittsburgh and Cleveland both upgrading rosters, Larry expects the division race to be tighter than the odds suggest, making the Bengals overpriced.

Larry Hartstein leaned to the UNDER 9.5 wins for Cincinnati at -120, arguing the roster simply cannot support a double-digit season. He highlighted that last year’s Bengals fielded one of the league’s worst pass rushes outside of Trey Hendrickson, who still has contract issues. First-round edge prospect Shamar Stewart remains unsigned after posting only 4.5 college sacks, so immediate help is doubtful. Hartstein added that coordinator Al Golden—no matter how respected—lacks the pieces to fix a defense that finished near the bottom in pressures and explosive plays allowed. Without a functional front four, Larry does not believe even an elite passing attack featuring Burrow, Chase, Higgins and breakout RB Chase Brown can cover for the stop unit often enough to get to 10 wins.