Lawrence Rupp recommended Freddie Freeman at +380 to homer in Arizona, noting the Dodgers star is on a tear: .480/.519/.920 slash with three homers and a triple through six May games. Freeman ranks top-10 in launch-angle sweet-spot percentage (44%) and squared-up percentage (46.5%), proof he is consistently squaring the baseball. Brandon Pfaadt has surrendered six home runs in his last six starts and owns a 6.20 ERA in four career outings versus the Dodgers. Freeman has already taken Pfaadt deep once, and he mashes at Chase Field with a .373/.433/.702 career line and 41 extra-base hits in just 55 games there. Rupp believes the matchup sets up perfectly for another long ball.

Lawrence Rupp said Kyle Schwarber is a strong +235 home-run bet against Ryan Pepiot because the Rays right-hander has been hammered at George M. Steinbrenner Field: 32 hits and eight homers allowed in five home starts, four of those long balls coming off his four-seam fastball that he throws 39% of the time. Schwarber is batting .350 with eight homers versus fastballs this season, and the contact is violent, averaging 97.6 mph exit velocity on his 21 fastball hits. He also owns a .593 road slugging percentage, tops on the Phillies, giving Rupp confidence Schwarber can leave the yard Thursday night.

Lawrence Rupp targeted Jordan Beck at +550 to homer in Game 1 against Detroit, pointing out the rookie's scorching form: five homers and a .791 slugging percentage over the last 15 days while posting a 21.7% barrel rate, fifth-highest in MLB. Beck benefits from Coors Field, Statcast’s No. 1 offensive park since 2023. Opposing starter Casey Mize has coughed up at least one homer in four straight starts and has never pitched in Denver’s thin air. Rupp expects Beck’s recent power surge to continue given the altitude and Mize’s homer issues.

Lawrence Rupp advised backing Matt Olson at +460 to leave the yard. Olson sits top-20 in hard-hit rate (59.1%), average exit velocity (95.2 mph) and barrel rate (18.2%) and has crushed 161 homers since 2021—fifth-most in MLB. Reds starter Brady Singer has coughed up a homer in four straight outings and has surrendered five total dingers in just two career appearances versus Atlanta. Olson has already taken Singer deep and has previous homers off trusted Cincinnati relievers Emilio Pagan and Graham Ashcraft, giving this ticket life right through the ninth inning.

Lawrence Rupp highlighted Jorge Polanco as a +360 homer play thanks to a torrid two-week stretch (.444/.532/1.122 with six HR and 14 RBI) and a trip to Sutter Health Park, Statcast’s No. 2 run-scoring environment in 2025. Polanco and teammate Cal Raleigh are 7-for-15 with two homers off Monday starter Luis Severino, who has already been tagged for four long balls in four home starts. The combination of elite recent form, a homer-boosting venue, and a familiar, vulnerable pitcher has Rupp locking in Polanco’s HR prop.

Lawrence Rupp recommended betting Cal Raleigh at +300 to leave the yard again. Raleigh tops the league with 12 homers and owns a .587 slugging percentage, third-best overall. He heads into Statcast’s second-most hitter-friendly park against Luis Severino, whom Raleigh has already taken deep while going 7-for-15 collectively with Jorge Polanco. Severino’s four homers allowed in four home outings underscore the matchup edge. Rupp expects the power-hitting catcher to pad his league-leading total in Sacramento on Monday night.

Lawrence Rupp said Mookie Betts is a plus-odds home-run bet at +560 because Miami starter Sandy Alcantara is in a tailspin: career-worst 15.8% strikeout rate, career-high 46.4% hard-hit rate, an 8.31 ERA, and a homer allowed in four of his last five outings. Betts already owns a 7-for-16 line with two bombs off Alcantara and currently leads all 351 qualified hitters by squaring up 47.6% of the balls he puts in play. With the Dodgers carrying a league-best .866 OPS at Chavez Ravine, Rupp expects Betts to ignite the lineup with another long ball Monday night.