For Superflex builds, Pappano recommended grabbing an elite signal-caller early—think Josh Allen or Jayden Daniels—to lock in weekly ceiling, but pushing the second quarterback down the board unless obvious value appears. He argued that dynasty drafts often overreact with QB avalanches, creating pockets where tier-one WRs (Nico Collins) or bell-cow RBs (Jonathan Taylor) fall further than they should. Because usable starters such as Dak Prescott or Jordan Love usually linger into the mid-rounds, GMs can profit by scooping non-QB studs during the initial run and circling back for a solid but unspectacular QB2 later. Rookie drafts then become the long-range pipeline for upside passers, giving the roster cheap depth without surrendering early startup equity.

Pappano laid out a position-by-position career arc blueprint: Running backs absorb violent volume early, typically peaking by year three, so dynasty GMs should strike quickly on young backs and be willing to cash out before mileage or second contracts erode efficiency. Wide receivers, conversely, simmer; most first show real ceiling between seasons three and five, meaning managers should stay patient and even buy low on talented WRs whose rookie numbers disappoint. Quarterbacks provide the longest plateau—stable output well into their late 20s and early 30s—making an every-week starter a franchise cornerstone in standard dynasty or a cheat code in Superflex. Tailoring acquisition and liquidation timing around those differing curves, he argued, is one of the most reliable long-term profit levers in the format.

Pappano drilled down on nine seasons of rookie-draft data (2014-2022) and found that just the first three rookie picks routinely appreciate. Seven of nine 1.01 selections actually gained startup-ADP after their first NFL season, with individual swings ranging from a 15-spot drop to an 18-spot spike. Once the board moved past 1.03, the average pick lost dynasty ADP in year two, and the same depreciation trend was even steeper for second-round rookies. His takeaway: if you are not drafting inside the top three, history says your pick is more likely to lose value than gain it—so consider packaging mid- and late-firsts for veterans or for multiple later shots where hit rates (Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco) can still be found without burning premium capital.

Lenny Pappano advised dynasty managers to shop their rookie picks rather than get swept up in pre-draft hype. He framed the move as a risk-reduction play: proven NFL producers come with stable roles and bankable scoring, whereas rookies must navigate the college-to-pro transition and are far more volatile assets. Pappano urged drafters to weaponize that hype cycle—citing how pick fever often inflates rookie prices—to acquire veterans whose weekly floor is already understood. He noted that the Dynasty Trade Value Chart and Dynasty Trade Calculator on Draft Sharks can quantify just how much surplus value the market is currently assigning to those mystery boxes. The upshot: turn uncertain gamble chips into start-able fantasy points today.