Liam Picks Fights offered a high-paying ‘violence’ parlay he built on BetRivers that returns +3475: (1) Either fighter by KO/TKO in Jaqueline Amorim vs Polyana Viana at +550 and (2) Either fighter by submission in Michel Pereira vs Abus Magomedov at +450. His logic is simple—both matchups feature finish-heavy styles on each side. Amorim is an aggressive grappler whose ground-and-pound nearly stopped Kanako Murata, while Viana owns four UFC knockouts and relies on early haymakers; neither woman has seen the judges in three of their last four combined fights. Pereira has ended seven of his last nine wins by choke immediately after hurting opponents, and Magomedov was tapped once he tired against Fluffy Hernandez, making a sub from either man plausible. Liam believes at least one of the two legs caches, so parlaying them creates outsized upside compared to playing each straight.

Liam Picks Fights circled Heili Alateng round-3 KO at 30-to-1 as his favorite lottery ticket of the card. Blackshear starts hot but historically fades—he is just 3-6 in decisions and was out-paced late by Batista after winning early exchanges. Alateng, meanwhile, has quietly built a 5-2-1 UFC record by leaning on steady wrestling and heavy punches; he shattered Chad Anheliger’s nose in the first minute of their bout. Liam also noted Blackshear’s durability questions after being iced by Montel Jackson in eight seconds and nearly dropped in round 1 versus Cody Gibson. If Blackshear survives the opening storm, Liam expects cardio to tilt toward Alateng, giving the Chinese bantam a live shot to put him away once the gas tank empties. He is sprinkling the 30-1 round-3 ticket and smaller on the general KO prop at 6-to-1.

Liam Picks Fights doubled-down on fading Ian Garry by recommending bettors split exposure between Carlos Prates KO/TKO at +175 and the much longer Prates submission prop at +700. Liam thinks Garry’s only edge—offensive grappling—will be hard to deploy because Prates carries one-shot power everywhere and times knees on level changes. He highlighted Prates’ willingness to jump guillotines (training with ninja-choke specialist Joao Silva) and Garry’s ‘long-neck’ that has been stuck in bad spots before. Because most books list Prates Inside-the-Distance only a few cents shorter than the straight KO line, Liam prefers covering the club-and-sub scenario rather than going KO only, projecting that any knockdown could immediately turn into a choke finish.

Liam Picks Fights told listeners to forget the –400 money-line and attack Ikram Aliskerov in the round markets instead. He noted that Aliskerov has cashed five of his last six wins inside the first eight minutes—Warlley Alves (R1), Phil Hawes (R1) and a pre-UFC kimura all coming early—so books hanging plus money on R1 or R2 are the best way to squeeze value out of a massive favorite. Liam’s confidence stems from Aliskerov’s underrated takedown defense: he stuffed every Chimaev shot before the KO and rarely concedes top position unless it is Brendan Allen on his back. That nullifies what he called the “Muniz cheat code”—an opportunistic back-take leading to a quick arm-bar. Because cardio remains Muniz’s glaring hole and his kickboxing is “GM3 level at best,” Liam thinks Muniz’s only real path is a slick submission, a prop still floating between +900 and +1000. His final card: shop Aliskerov R1/R2 plus money and sprinkle Muniz by sub as insurance on the lone upset avenue.

Liam Picks Fights agreed that Malcolm Wellmaker is the side but advised bettors to compare prices between KO and Inside-the-Distance. Wellmaker owns two pre-UFC submission wins and Simon’s scramble-heavy style means either man could get caught if positions flip. Liam’s plan: bet KO if it stays +350 but pivot to ITD if the gap narrows to five or ten cents because a club-and-sub is live. He reiterated that Simon’s best chance is to wrestle, yet film shows him overextending, falling off the back, and surrendering hooks—exactly the kind of openings Wellmaker turns into finishes. Bottom line: prioritize the finish prop unless the KO remains a clear outlier.

Liam Picks Fights expects Jaqueline Amorim to finish Polyana Viana but argued bettors should target the KO/TKO or Under 2.5 rather than the heavily juiced submission prop. Amorim brutalized Kanako Murata on the ground last time and nearly earned a stoppage in each round. Viana now shells up off her back—Liam cashed a 24-1 KO2 ticket fading her versus Gillian Robertson—and he sees a repeat. Draft lines were showing Amorim by SUB at –170 while her KO/TKO sat at +650 and the Under 2.5 around –250. Because Viana’s only realistic win condition is an early sub of her own, Liam prefers an Under or the plus-money KO numbers that still capture Amorim’s dominant top game and growing ground-and-pound. Play: Amorim KO/TKO rounds 1-2 and/or Under 2.5.

Liam Picks Fights backed Roberto Romero despite the line movement that flipped him from underdog to modest favorite. Liam cited Romero’s high-tempo debut versus David Onama—constant forward pressure, several near-sub attempts, and willingness to throw combinations—as evidence he will put ‘more out there to be judged’. Kawamba is younger (26) and trains with quality partners, but Liam has not been impressed with the limited offense he has shown so far. He expects Romero to be the minute-winner standing, the more dangerous submission hunter on the mat, and the fighter likelier to sway judges with aggression. Liam therefore recommended taking Romero on the moneyline and believes late steam will close him around –140.

Liam Picks Fights said Chelsea Chandler is a classic Dog-or-Pass spot against Jocelyn Edwards. Chandler is fighting to keep her roster spot after two straight weight misses, yet Liam argued the weight narrative actually works in her favor here: Edwards has won the last three times she missed weight but has LOST her last two when she successfully hit 135. Chandler’s clearest path is wrestling—Liam projected that two or more takedowns would allow Chandler to either bank top-control rounds or find ground-and-pound. He pointed to Edwards getting stuck in bad positions versus Lucie Pudilova, a far less physical grappler, and noted Chandler is a brown-belt who is willing to eat a shot to get inside. Both fighters carry shaky gas tanks, so Liam prefers the plus-money side and even sprinkled violence props because Chandler can finish if she gets mount while Edwards can fade late. Bottom line: back Chandler moneyline or look to the under rather than laying chalk on Edwards.