Lonte Smith is laying the short –144 on Seattle because he trusts Bryan Woo and believes the market is over-reacting to Oakland’s weekend fireworks against Houston. Woo has yet to log fewer than six innings this season and has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four straight road starts. Jeffrey Springs has looked serviceable (three quality starts in four), but Lonte doubts he can match Woo’s length or strikeout upside. He thinks the A’s are suddenly being priced like a .500 club after a high-profile series win, calling them "a little bit over-valued." Projecting a 3-1 or 4-2 type game, he is on Seattle’s money-line and leans under the 9.5 total as a secondary angle.

Lonte Smith piled on, preferring the Rangers’ run line and even sprinkling the full-game under 8. He reiterated Eovaldi’s ridiculous form—one total earned run across his last four starts and only three in six road turns—while acknowledging a minor back issue that forced the right-hander to skip a turn earlier in the month. Eovaldi returned without missing a beat, so Smith views the health note as a monitoring item, not a reason to fade. On the other side, Jose Soriano has already eclipsed his previous career-high workload and is showing fatigue—11 walks in his last four outings and reported arm soreness dating back to last August. Even though Soriano has limited damage to two earned or fewer in four of five, Smith doubts he can match Eovaldi inning for inning. Given Texas’s offensive surge and Soriano’s deteriorating command, Smith prefers laying the –1.5 runs and sees value on the under because he expects the Angels to struggle to score.

Lonte Smith will be on Miami first five innings and a smaller sprinkle full-game with Cal Quantrill matching up against Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has been the picture of inconsistency, surrendering 8, 0, 5 and 0 earned runs in his last four outings while sporting an xERA nearly a run higher than his 4.12 ERA. Quantill, by contrast, has quietly posted a 3.18 road ERA this season and has not allowed more than three earned in any of his last six away starts. Smith added that Mikolas was extremely fortunate in his last ‘good’ outing, stranding two bases-loaded jams via double-plays. Miami’s lineup owns an .802 OPS versus right-handed pitching since the break, and St. Louis’ bullpen ranks 28th in strikeout rate. Smith is most comfortable isolating the pitching edge early, but he expects positive value on the Marlins moneyline as well and would look toward an over 8.5 if the number holds.

Lonte Smith grabbed Cincinnati at +144, arguing that Shohei Ohtani remains capped near 60 pitches and has yet to finish four innings in any of his six rehab starts. Los Angeles has to lean on a middling middle-relief corps in those appearances, a unit carrying a 4.61 ERA since the break. Nick Martinez, meanwhile, is 5-1 with a 3.30 ERA over his last six, allowing two or fewer earned in four of those games; Smith emphasized that the lone clunker—a 10-run disaster versus Miami—skews every surface stat. Outside that meltdown Martinez owns a 1.05 WHIP and 50% ground-ball rate. Cincinnati’s lineup has produced 5.6 runs per game since the All-Star break while the Dodgers are just 3-7 in their last ten. With the Reds’ bullpen ranking seventh in WAR during July, Smith believes the home dog is live from first pitch through the late innings.

Lonte Smith said the Yankees should not be laying –140 plus behind rookie Will Warren given the state of their lineup. New York has been forced to juggle the batting order while slumping, scoring fewer than four runs in six of the last eight. Warren’s surface numbers at home are solid, yet his underlying 4.49 xFIP and 10% walk rate point to trouble, and he has just five big-league starts under his belt. Smith reminded listeners that Tampa traditionally punches above its weight in the Bronx, going 26-18 against the Yankees since 2021, including 12-9 on the road. Zach Littell owns a 3.64 FIP over his last six road turns and generally limits walks, giving Tampa a path to hang around. With the Rays catching around +144, Smith believes the historical matchup edge and Yankees’ offensive uncertainty make Tampa Bay a worthwhile moneyline stab.

Lonte Smith balked at the Giants being listed around –225 with Logan Webb on the hill. Webb has been anything but an ace lately—16 earned runs on 25 hits over his last three outings, two of which came at Oracle Park. Meanwhile rookie Mike Burrows blanked Arizona for six frames his last time out and has logged quality starts against Seattle and the Mets in recent weeks. Factor in San Francisco’s 2-8 skid and Pittsburgh’s current three-game win streak, and Smith thinks anything north of +180 is an autoplay on the Pirates money-line.

Lonte Smith prefers the full-game over 8.5 runs and a smaller play on Chicago’s first-five money-line. Taijuan Walker has surrendered 15 hits and five home runs across his last two outings, while Adrian Houser has allowed 22 knocks over that same span despite a sparkling 2.10 ERA in eleven South Side turns. Smith mentioned that both clubs jumped on the board early in Tuesday’s matchup and expects a similar script because each starter gives up so much hard contact. He thinks Hauser can still slightly out-duel Walker, but the safest angle is riding the bats in a hitter-friendly afternoon spot.

Lonte Smith echoed the Kansas City side but added he will be eyeing the full-game under once totals are posted. He highlighted the Royals’ 888 OPS against left-handed pitching this month and noted Atlanta’s offense has cratered while the entire Opening-Day rotation sits on the IL. Smith believes the market has been slow to catch up to how far the Braves have fallen; he’s waiting to see which Kansas City arm draws the start before deciding whether to pair the Royals money-line with an under, but he expects value on both angles given Atlanta’s inflated perception.

Unsure who Houston will start, Lonte Smith is eyeing Washington first five. MacKenzie Gore has held opponents to two runs or fewer in four of five, and Lonte notes you can tell immediately if the lefty has his swing-and-miss stuff—great for live betting. While Gore’s strikeout rate has dipped and the walks (21 in six outings) are up, he has been dominant on the road. With the Astros scuffling and likely running a back-end arm, Lonte likes the Nats early.

Lonte Smith agreed with the Boston side and added a lean to the full-game over. Bello has been steady, giving up zero to three earned in every start over the last three months, although only two of those outings were on the road. Ober, meanwhile, is a "complete failure" in Lonte’s words, with a 9.00 July ERA. He expects Boston’s lineup to get to Ober early and often, making the live total and Red Sox moneyline both attractive.

Lonte Smith called this his favorite play on the card. He highlighted Ryne Nelson’s four quality starts in his last five and only eight total earned runs during that stretch, allowing two or fewer in seven of his last eight. On the flip side, Paddack has surrendered five-plus earned in two of three, and six bombs in four games. Lonte thinks Detroit’s surprise outburst the night before was an anomaly and expects Arizona’s bats to do damage; he likes both the moneyline and the D-backs team total over.

Lonte Smith also fired on Baltimore, calling the current price "too short" given recent form. He noted Berrios has given up four or more runs in three of his last five starts despite six quality outings in the last 10, highlighting his boom-bust nature. Kremer, on the other hand, has allowed just one total run in two of his past three starts and 14 of his last 23 innings at home have been scoreless. Lonte thinks that consistency paired with Baltimore’s hot offense makes the O’s the side.

Lonte Smith called his shot on Trevor Story to leave the yard against Chris Paddack. He wants to fade Paddack’s ugly recent form—five-plus earned runs in two of his last three starts and six home runs allowed in his last four—and trusts Story’s pull-side power in Fenway. Story homered the last time Smith backed him, and the Red Sox shortstop owns a .556 slugging percentage versus right-handers throwing a fastball/change-up combo like Paddack’s. Smith expects Boston’s lineup to jump on Paddack early and sees Story as the best payout in the home-run market.

Making it his ‘lock,’ Lonte Smith laid –120 with Kansas City behind Seth Lugo. He expects Lugo to pitch with extra juice after signing a two-year extension and pointed out the veteran’s 2.95 ERA and 1.09 WHIP have already cashed five of his last seven starts. Atlanta, meanwhile, is in a full nosedive—five straight losses, an 8-of-10 skid overall, and an offense missing all five projected Opening Day starters due to injury. Even though Spencer Strider is trending up, the Braves have still dropped four of his last five outings. Smith projects a low-scoring game (4-2/3-2 type) but trusts the steadier Royals lineup and bullpen to finish the job.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford’s Mets moneyline pick—he even has a Mets World Series futures ticket—and added a preference for the over 7.5. The Amazins have won seven straight while slugging, and he expects them to handle a diminished Darvish whose swing-and-miss stuff is down. Manaea has limited opponents to one run in all three rehab starts but may be capped at five innings, bringing New York’s still-shaky middle relief into play. If San Diego can scratch three or four off the pen, Smith sees the total sailing north of eight with the Mets doing most of the damage.

Lonte Smith jumped on Texas at even money, arguing the books should have made the game a pick-’em at worst. The Rangers are 9-1 in their last 10 and finally pairing elite pitching with an awakened lineup. Patrick Corbin has allowed three earned or fewer in five straight (2.54 ERA over that span) and limited the Angels to two runs across five frames in the previous meeting. Los Angeles is just 4-6 over its last 10 and stuck in a 2–4 run scoring band most nights. Smith expects Texas to scratch out three or four runs off a fading Yusei Kikuchi (July ERA climbing) and trusts Corbin plus the bullpen to make that hold up. He also sprinkled the full-game over 8.5, projecting a 5-3 type Rangers win.

Lonte Smith made Miami his favourite plus-money play of the slate at +138. He’ll fade Sonny Gray’s recent collapse—8.34 ERA over his last five, including 14 earned on 22 hits in just his past two starts—and ride a Marlins club that is 7-3 over its last ten after an impressive road series win in Milwaukee. Sandy Alcantara is coming off seven scoreless against San Diego; while his swing-and-miss stuff has dipped (no more than four Ks in six straight), Smith thinks a scuffling Cardinals lineup (3-7 last ten) will be the perfect tonic. He also sprinkled the over 8.5, citing trade-rumor distractions for both pitchers and two bullpens ranked bottom-third in ERA the past week. Final projection: Miami 6, St. Louis 4.

Lonte Smith attacked Phillies–White Sox two ways: Chicago first-five moneyline at +140 and the full-game over 8.5. He called Jesus Luzardo “a mystery,” pointing to five walks in his last start and chronic control lapses that make him good for at least three early runs. The left-hander’s road ERA sits north of 5.00 and his last four game totals have finished 17, 11, 13 and 15. Rookie Jonathan Cannon, meanwhile, has allowed two earned or fewer in four of five and owns solid K/BB numbers. Chicago has quietly won six of ten, and its games have gone over in seven of that span; Philadelphia is 6-4 to the over in the same window. Smith expects both lineups to score early, banking on Luzardo’s walks and Cannon’s limited home sample to cash the first-five Sox ticket and push the game past nine runs overall.

Smith backed up Bamford’s D-backs pick, calling the Tigers ‘trending the wrong way’ after dropping seven of their last eight at Comerica. He noted Detroit’s lineup scored just one total run in the first two games of the Pittsburgh series and still ranks bottom-five in wRC+. Arizona is only 5-5 over its last 10 but has survived despite a cold offense, and Smith likes its chances to rebound against Mize’s 1.50 WHIP and .282 opponent average. He labeled the plus-money price on Arizona a ‘WTF’ line and took the D-backs to win outright.

Smith took a contrarian angle, grabbing Colorado first-five and the full-game over. He pointed to rookie Tanner Gordon’s six scoreless frames versus St. Louis and said Cleveland’s lineup doesn’t scare him. Guardians lefty Logan Allen has allowed six-plus hits in four of his last five Progressive Field starts and carries a quirky 4-3-2-1 earned-run pattern in his last four outings; Smith joked he hopes the trend means five runs next. Colorado is 5-5 in its last 10 and showing signs of life at the top of the order, so he’s betting they can scratch out an early edge before Cleveland’s bullpen takes over.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford’s Blue Jays moneyline call and tacked on the full-game over 8 runs. Toronto has won 8 of 10 and just scored 25 runs in Detroit, while Baltimore’s offense has been steady all season. Morton has given up three or more earned runs in two of his last four starts despite strong home splits, and Smith noted both clubs should push this total with the roof likely open at Camden Yards. He took Toronto at plus money and bet the over, expecting both lineups to get rolling early.

Lonte Smith recommended betting the Mets at the current –105 price despite wanting a plus sign. He cited David Peterson’s three straight quality starts since a rough mid-June stretch—just two earned runs allowed in that span—and a season ERA trimmed to 2.90. Conversely, Robbie Ray has issued 10 walks in his last three outings and surrendered nine homers over his past seven starts, culminating in what Smith called ‘possibly his worst start of the year’ in Toronto. With New York swinging the bats well and Ray trending toward a homer-prone regression, Smith believes the Mets should be slight favorites and sees clear value backing Peterson in current form.

Lonte Smith liked Kansas City full-game but emphasized a Royals-and-under combo as the ideal bet. He highlighted Bubic’s recent form—four earned across his last 30 innings—and Bybee’s elevated 33% hard-contact rate away from Progressive Field. Kansas City’s offense is middling, yet Smith expects two or three early runs to be enough, forecasting a 3-1 type finish. Because both lineups struggle to slug and the Royals’ bullpen has steadied post-break, he sees heavy correlation between a K.C. win and a game total that stays below 8.5.

Lonte Smith grabbed the Dodgers at +115 even with Garrett Crochet dealing. Smith acknowledged Crochet’s seven wins in his last nine starts but noted his hit rate has ticked up, leaving a sliver of vulnerability against L.A.’s power bats. Kershaw has surrendered no more than two earned in any road start and carries a 3.27 season ERA, giving Los Angeles a legitimate pitching edge at plus money. Smith expects the Dodgers’ lineup to cash in on any early control hiccups from Crochet and trusts L.A.’s bullpen advantage in the late innings. He still leans under on the full-game total but sees the side as the cleaner path to profit.

Lonte Smith agreed with backing Minnesota but preferred attacking the total. He expects the Twins to do most of the scoring themselves, citing Parker’s 1.60 WHIP on the highway and an elevated 34% line-drive rate in his last four road appearances. Smith likes Joe Ryan to keep Washington quiet, yet believes Minnesota’s contact-heavy lineup can post six or seven runs, making the over 8/8.5 or a Twins team-total over the better angles. He pegged 6-3 as a realistic score line.

Lonte Smith circled the full–game over 7.5 in A’s-Astros. He noted Hunter Brown’s recent implosion—13 earned over his last 15 innings and 10 earned in his two most-recent home starts—as the primary catalyst. Luis Lopez held Houston scoreless two weeks ago, but Smith reminded listeners the rookie’s low hit rate masks a glaring long-ball problem; when contact happens, it often leaves the yard. Oakland’s lineup may be streaky, yet the top of the order still owns legitimate slugging punch, while Houston’s bats are too talented to stay dormant against Lopez for a second straight meeting. With both starters carrying home-run or hard-contact issues and a modest 7.5 total, Smith expects each club to reach three or four runs, pushing the game past the number by the sixth or seventh inning.

Lonte Smith was happy to lay –160 with Milwaukee, arguing the number should be closer to –180 given the Brewers’ hot bats and Miami’s contact-heavy starter Janson Junk (three or fewer strikeouts in four of five). He acknowledged Jose Kintana’s 4.15 ERA since June but trusts Milwaukee’s lineup (top-6 in OPS this month) and deep bullpen to cover for any Kintana wobble. Smith thinks fading a Marlins relief corps that owns a 4.50 ERA in July is the simplest path to profit.

Lonte Smith avoided the run-line tax and instead played Baltimore’s team-total over. He called Antonio Senzatela a fade candidate: four-plus runs in three of five and a season-long 6.41 ERA. Smith noted Camden Yards’ friendly dimensions and said the Rockies own MLB’s worst road OPS, meaning Rodriguez can blank them while the Orioles lineup handles the scoring. With Baltimore averaging 5.2 runs per game at home and the Rockies down another bat after trading Ryan McMahon, Smith expects the Orioles to clear their posted team number comfortably.

Lonte Smith opts for an Arizona team-total over instead of the side. Andrew Heaney has yielded four or more runs in three of his last five starts and hasn’t completed five innings in any of his last three, while the Pirates’ bullpen, though improved, is still hittable. Smith trusts the Diamondbacks’ lineup more than any of the four units on the field and believes they can plate at least four runs regardless of game outcome, especially if Merrill Kelly’s pitch count is limited due to trade chatter.

Lonte Smith calls the –200 tag on Detroit ‘insane’ and is also betting Toronto. While acknowledging Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young-level year, he argues the Tigers’ lineup rarely tops three runs and shouldn’t be laying big numbers against a division-leading Blue Jays club. Smith highlights Kevin Gausman’s consistency—two runs or fewer allowed in four of his last five—and says anything north of +150 creates automatic value on Toronto given Detroit’s inability to support its ace.

Lonte Smith recommends grabbing the Yankees at plus money against Philadelphia. Smith likes Marcus Stroman’s recent bounce-back—one earned run over a quality start in Atlanta—and expects New York’s patient lineup to exploit Ranger Suarez’s suddenly shaky command (nine walks in his last three outings). Suarez is coming off his worst start of 2025, yielding six runs in 4.1 innings to the Angels, and the Yankees have historically punished left-handed pitching. Smith anticipates New York working deep counts, getting into the Phillies’ middle relief, and rewarding bettors with a short-priced home upset.

Lonte Smith singled out Dansby Swanson as his favorite home-run prop for Friday. Smith noted that Swanson has a four-game hitting streak and believes Chicago’s lineup is poised for another multi-run eruption against White Sox rookie Colin Hauser. Earlier in the show he flagged Hauser’s contact luck—17 hits but only four earned over his last two starts—and pointed to the Cubs’ NL-leading hard-hit rate since the All-Star break as evidence that regression is coming. With the wind blowing across Guaranteed Rate Field rather than in, Smith expects several elevated balls to carry and likes Swanson’s odds of leaving the yard, describing the market price (typically +425 to +450) as “a touch short for how well he’s barreling right now.”

Lonte Smith echoed the Mariners play, arguing the –120/–125 tag should be closer to –140. He framed it as a ‘breather’ series after Seattle just faced Houston and Milwaukee. Woo has yielded four combined earned runs in his last five non-Astros starts and has posted back-to-back road gems (13 IP, 1 ER). Soriano’s 5.65 home ERA and 4.2 BB/9 leave him vulnerable to a patient Mariners lineup that sits top-8 in MLB walk rate since the break. Smith also flagged Soriano’s 34% hard-hit rate allowed when behind in counts, something he expects Seattle to exploit. With the Angels bullpen carrying an xFIP over 5.00 in July, Smith projected the Mariners to push past four runs and win by multiple, calling the current moneyline ‘too short to pass.’