Lonte Smith doubled down on his White Sox upset angle by targeting Miguel Vargas to go deep against Zach Eflin. Smith called Eflin "batting practice right now," noting the right-hander has been tagged for 17 earned runs and seven homers in his last three starts while carrying an 8.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Vargas, meanwhile, owns multi-hit efforts in three of his last six games and has left the yard in two of his past four, boosting his hard-hit rate to 46% since returning from Triple-A. With Baltimore’s bullpen lugging a 7.00 ERA the last two weeks and wind projecting straight out to left at 8 mph, Smith likes Vargas’ chances to clear the wall and recommends betting Over 0.5 home runs at anything +400 or better while using him as a cheap DFS one-off in tournaments.

Lonte Smith reluctantly grabbed the Dodgers at +115, arguing the price is too tempting even with Max Fried in peak form. Los Angeles ranks near the top of MLB in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, and Smith expects some regression from Fried once he faces this caliber of lineup. While Tony Gonsolin’s recent line (eight walks, eight earned over nine innings) is ugly, his career 3.21 ERA suggests better days, and the Yankees’ offense has been scuffling—just a .392 slugging percentage over the last ten despite sweeping the Angels. Smith sees a tight 2-1 finish either way, so he is pairing Dodgers ML down to +110 with Under 8.5 at –105 or better.

Lonte Smith prefers the total in Twins-Mariners, projecting a 3-1 or 4-0 type of contest and targeting any opening number of 8 or higher. He trusts Bryan Wu’s 1.10 ERA over three home starts and 31% chase rate to muzzle a Minnesota offense striking out 25% of the time versus righties. Although Zebby Matthews owns a bloated 7.71 ERA, Smith pointed to his above-average whiff rate and believes spacious T-Mobile Park plus two under-trending lineups (six unders in ten for both clubs) will keep damage in check. If the market drops to 7.5, he wants plus money; otherwise he’ll play the under at standard juice.

Doubling down on Reichel’s angle, Lonte Smith will bet both the first-five and full-game moneylines on Washington provided he can get +130 to +150. Smith highlighted the Nats’ uptick—seven wins in their last ten and a 4-1 road stretch—and praised Irvin’s consistency: three consecutive quality starts, two runs or fewer allowed in three of five away from D.C. Arizona’s bullpen is the real target; the unit’s 6.00 ERA and .370 wOBA allowed over the past ten have turned close games into losses. While Smith respects Merril Kelly, he believes any Nationals lead after five forces Arizona to lean on that relief corps, a scenario that could blow up quickly. He also intends to sprinkle a Washington team-total Over 3.5, banking on late-inning fireworks against a gassed pen.

Lonte Smith said the only way he can touch Pirates-Padres is by grabbing Pittsburgh on the first-five moneyline at any number north of +115. He reminded listeners that Mitch Keller owns a sparkling 1.89 ERA over his last four starts and a 2.88 ERA on the road, yet still sits 1-6 because the Bucs rarely score for him. Smith thinks Keller can at least match Nick Pivetta, whose recent form is buoyed by good luck—five straight outings with a homer allowed and a rising hard-hit rate. While San Diego swept the season series in early May and has won nine straight head-to-head, the Padres have played “below-average ball” for two weeks and the bullpen is worn down after consecutive bullpen games. With Pittsburgh 6-4 in its last ten and San Diego offense stuck under four runs in five of seven, Smith projects a 2-1 or 3-2 Pirate lead through five and will sprinkle the full-game moneyline only if the price holds +160 or better.

Lonte Smith is playing two ways in Rays-Astros: under 7.5 and Houston –1.5 at plus money. He highlighted that both starters have strung together four consecutive quality starts, with Valdez allowing three earned or fewer in eight of 11 overall and Pepiot blanking Toronto last weekend after holding Houston to three runs over six the start before. Smith acknowledged Tampa’s improved form (seven wins in the last eight) but still grades their offense as league-average at best, while Houston’s lineup is missing Kyle Tucker and has seen Yordan Alvarez in and out of the lineup. Given that, he envisions a playoff-style 3-2 game where whichever side wins likely does so by multiple runs because the trailing manager will empty a taxed bullpen for pinch-hit matchups. His card: Astros –1.5 down to +120 and under 7.5 at standard juice; if the total drops to 7 he’ll pass.

Lonte Smith agreed with Scott on the total and made the under 8 his best bet in Tigers-Royals. He pointed out Detroit’s bats have finally regressed to pre-season expectations—under a .200 average and .285 wOBA versus right-handers over the last ten games—while Kansas City remains ‘consistently inconsistent,’ hitting below .215 overall in that same span. Both starters are in form: Casey Mize (2.45 ERA) and Seth Lugo (3.02) have combined for nine quality starts in their last ten turns. Smith also cited the April head-to-head series that produced just 23 total runs in four games and a cool evening forecast that suppresses Kauffman’s carry. He projects a 3-2 or 4-3 final and will bet any under 8 at standard juice, taking 7.5 at plus money if the market dips.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the matchup by betting the first-five under 4.5 and sprinkling the Cardinals moneyline. Smith rattled off Liberatore’s dominant stretch—eight straight starts with two or fewer earned, a 1.91 ERA in that window, and only one homer surrendered—and contrasted it with a Rangers offense hitting below .190 in its last ten overall and just .210 against southpaws for the season. He added that Texas is averaging 2.2 runs a night during that skid, making a 0-0 or 1-0 scoreboard through five highly plausible. Leiter has held his own, but Smith stressed it ‘doesn’t matter how good your arm is when the bats won’t get you two runs.’ With St. Louis manufacturing runs late and Texas bullpen cracks showing, he likes the Cards at any plus number and the F5 under at –120 or better.

Lonte Smith echoed the Atlanta side but wants to see the number once books re-post after bullpen usage is confirmed. He noted the Braves took two of three at Fenway last week, outscoring Boston 20-13, and Giolito surrendered six earned in that series. Smith cited Giolito’s volatility, Boston’s ‘consistently inconsistent’ offense, and an already overworked Red Sox relief corps missing Chris Martin and Whitlock as reasons the Braves lineup — now with Ronald Acuna Jr. healthy — should get right. Four of Holmes’s five May starts have been quality, so Lonte leans under early but over full game because of Boston’s pen. Tentative targets: Braves ML up to –150 and full-game over 8 if it opens below 9.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the Marlins, recommending both the first-five and full-game moneylines. He highlighted San Francisco’s brutal offensive slide—nine of the Giants’ last ten have stayed under because the lineup is hitting .200 overall and below .215 on the road. Conversely, Miami is 5-5 in its last ten but has plated six or more runs in three of the previous five and owns a .270 team batting average during that window. Smith also pointed to the Giants’ 2.29 road bullpen ERA as a mirage created by low-leverage innings; he expects heavier usage tonight with Harrison unlikely to eclipse five frames. Quantrill has limited opponents to one earned in three of his last four at home, giving Miami a real chance to win the first half of the game outright before the fresher bats take over late. His card: Marlins F5 ML to +110 and full-game ML down to +135.

Lonte Smith labeled Friday a perfect ‘get-right’ spot for the Mets and is comfortable laying –1.5 (even –2.5 at plus money). Colorado’s road OPS versus lefties is south of .600, and Freeland’s road ERA is still a bloated 5.48 despite being ‘better’ away from Coors. Peterson’s only red flag is walks, but the free-swinging Rockies rank bottom-five in BB%. New York may be batting just .225 over its last ten, yet Lonte expects positive regression against a pitcher giving up 1.4 HR/9 and a bullpen with the league’s worst LOB rate. His blueprint: Peterson works six solid, Mets plate five-plus, and a rested pen slams the door for an easy multi-run win.

Lonte Smith also backed Cleveland but added he is taking the over 8. He cited both starters’ control problems—Soriano’s 4.2 BB/9 and Ortiz’s occasional wildness—as catalysts for crooked numbers. Soriano has surrendered six or more hits in six of his last eight outings, a sign that ERA luck could flip. The first Angels-Guardians series produced 14-run shootouts in two of three games, and Lonte thinks a similar script is plausible with warm weather and modest winds in Cleveland. His angle: volatility plus free passes will turn scattered traffic into rallies, cashing the over while the Guardians’ deeper lineup secures the win.

Lonte Smith joined Scott on the same wavelength, betting first-five AND full-game unders in Oakland-Toronto. He acknowledged Bassitt’s sparkling home ERA but warned his xERA and .299 xBA hint at regression—one reason he prefers isolating the early frames. Even so, the matchup still leans under because the Jays’ bats are ice-cold (two runs or less in six straight) and the A’s, though more competitive at the dish, have dropped nine of ten. Springs’ road ERA (2.45) and recent run of four starts with <3 earned runs strengthen the case. Lonte noted Bassitt is 4-1 his last five despite a 4.33 ERA, which he views as noise that is already baked into a total of 8/8.5. His official card: F5 under 4.5 and full-game under 8 at standard juice.

Lonte Smith recommends a three-pack—White Sox +1.5, first-five ML, and full-game ML—plus the over. He noted Chicago has lost three of its last four by a single run and believes the market is over-penalizing them. Baltimore’s pen sports a 7.00+ ERA over the past two weeks, and starter Zach Eflin has been a gas can: 17 earned runs and seven homers in his last three outings, with an 8.74 home ERA for the year. Conversely, rookie Jared Burke’s 4.33 ERA is inflated by league-worst walk issues, but he’s allowed one run or fewer in four of five starts while keeping hits under five each time. With both clubs 6-4 to the over in their last ten and Mike Tauchman providing a spark atop Chicago’s lineup, Lonte envisions a 7-6 or 6-5 type shootout that keeps the Sox inside the number and offers plus-money upset equity.

Lonte Smith is grabbing Milwaukee on the first-five moneyline while sprinkling the full-game over. He called Taijuan Walker a pure contact pitcher—under five strikeouts in five of his last six—and expects the Brewers, who are top-10 in hard-hit rate this month, to string hits early. Priester is dealing with a blister but still owns a 2.53 ERA and has surrendered two runs or fewer in four straight, three of those one-run efforts. Lonte trusts him more than a fatigued Philly staff that just navigated 18 innings on Thursday. With Milwaukee coming off two comeback wins in Boston and sitting 7-3 in their last ten, he projects the Brewers to be up a run or two after five before bullpens and the hitter-friendly park inflate the scoreboard late.

Lonte Smith echoed the same wager—Cubs moneyline and first-five under—adding several supporting nuggets. He noted Imanaga’s lone clunker (6 ER, 7 H over 5 IP) came against these Reds but expects a bounce-back at home, where his ERA is nearly two runs lower. Abbott has allowed one run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, so Lonte expects a 1-1 or 2-1 scoreboard through five. Chicago has handled southpaws all season (.270 AVG vs LHP) and is raking .280 at Wrigley while riding an 8-2 stretch (four straight wins). The Reds are hitting .280 over their last ten but remain wildly inconsistent. Given both pens’ volatility, he prefers to isolate the early innings, then ride Chicago’s consistency the rest of the way.

Lonte Smith played over 8 in Washington–Seattle, expecting both rookie starters to leak traffic. Logan Evans carries a 1.58 WHIP and has allowed four-plus earned in two of three road turns, while fellow lefty Mitchell Parker has given up at least three earned in four of five and owns an 8.11 May ERA. Neither pitcher is working deep—each averaging barely five innings—leaving two average bullpens exposed. Smith noted the Mariners’ offense has woken up just enough since its early-May lull, and Washington is "feisty in clutch spots," ranking top-10 in hitting with RISP the last two weeks. He projected 5-4 or 6-4 final tallies and passed on Seattle –150, wanting runs instead of side.

Lonte Smith bet both first-five and full-game unders (9) in Yankees–Angels thanks to two rebound narratives. Carlos Rodon has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four and carries a 2.88 road ERA. Yankees games are 8-2 to the under over their last ten despite an 8-2 record, underscoring run-suppression rather than offense. Tyler Anderson, though rocked for nine runs in his last two, had yielded two or fewer in five of six prior and owns a 2.91 ERA at Angel Stadium. With New York’s attack inconsistent—often exploding in one game then scoring two the next—Smith projects a 4-3 type scoreboard and will ladder unders across derivatives.

Lonte Smith recommended a full-game under 7.5 in Toronto–Texas, noting the perfect storm of an elite arm and two sputtering lineups. Nathan Eovaldi owns a 1.60 ERA (fifth-best in MLB) and league-leading 0.79 WHIP, surrendering only three total earned runs across his past six starts. Meanwhile, Texas has failed to clear three runs in seven of its last ten and was outscored 17-11 by the White Sox on a 1-5 road trip. Opposing opener-turned-starter Bowden Francis is shaky—15 homers allowed already and four-plus earned in three of his last five—yet routinely leaves before the sixth, allowing Bruce Bochy to shorten the game with his rested high-leverage bullpen. Smith projected a 3-1 or 2-1 finish and would only lean Rangers money-line if forced, preferring the total as the primary wager.

Lonte Smith circled Wyatt Langford as his favorite home-run prop on Tuesday. Bowden Francis has already coughed up 15 long balls this season and ranks bottom-10 in barrel rate allowed, a perfect antidote for Langford’s power drought (no homers since May 17 despite hits in seven of his last eight games). Smith noted that Langford will bat near the top of the order, guaranteeing three to four plate appearances against Francis before Toronto can pivot to middle relief. With Globe Life’s retractable roof expected open—boosting carry—and Francis giving up a .540 slugging percentage the first time through a lineup, Smith sees +475 (or better) as mis-priced and is taking a swing on Langford to leave the yard.

Lonte Smith called Tuesday a "San Diego smash spot" and is playing the Padres at minus 1.5 runs. His case: Max Meyer has surrendered 10 earned in his last two road starts and owns a 6.35 ERA outside loanDepot Park, while San Diego just snapped Atlanta’s winning streak and desperately needs to string series wins together. Smith acknowledged Stephen Kolek’s recent regression—eight earned in two starts—and labeled him a contact pitcher vulnerable to crooked numbers. Even though Miami’s bats have been better, Smith trusts the Padres’ top-5 hard-hit rate since May 1st to create separation. He sees San Diego winning by multiple runs in a game that could land 7-4, making the run-line payout more attractive than a juiced money line.

Lonte Smith suggested turning the heavy –260 price into an even-money look by parlaying Corbin Burnes to record the win with at least five strikeouts. Burnes has fanned 27 batters over his last 26 innings and cleared 5 Ks in three of four. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup strikes out 24.1% versus right-handers and has scored just 16 total runs across its past seven games. Smith reiterated his auto-fade of the Pirates—"even when Skeens is on the mound, until further notice"—and trusts Burnes’ form plus Arizona’s rested bullpen to convert the W.

Lonte Smith grabbed Oakland around +165, arguing the market underrates JP Sears’ road form (3.12 ERA away from the Coliseum) and Houston’s persistent struggles versus lefties. The Astros are batting only .223 at home and .230 against south-handed pitching despite a gaudy overall .270 clip the last ten games. Hunter Brown’s underlying numbers remain strong, but his pitch-count spikes have limited him to six innings or fewer in four of five, exposing a Houston bullpen that blew two saves last week. Smith projected a tight 4-3 Athletics win and likes pairing the money-line with full-game under parlays.

Lonte Smith doubled down on fading German Marquez, betting Chicago’s first-five team total over and a Yes-Run-First-Inning prop. Smith highlighted Marquez’s brutal splits—five-plus earned runs in five straight road outings—and pointed to the Cubs ranking top-10 in first-inning wRC+ at Wrigley. He also mentioned Colorado surrendering seven or more runs in six of its last 10 games while Chicago has plated six or more in six of nine. With Cade Horton still capped around 80 pitches, Smith prefers early-game derivatives that isolate Marquez’s innings. He expects Chicago to tag the right-hander quickly, projecting a 3-1 or 4-1 score after two frames and sees +105 on the Yerfi as a strong add-on.

Lonte Smith is taking Kansas City at roughly ‑105, trusting the rookie Avila to be just competent enough compared with the erratic Brady Singer. Smith pointed out that Cincinnati has been a poor road club all year and just blew an 8-3 lead Monday, hinting at a shaky bullpen and fragile mindset. The Royals have been streaky but generally play better at Kauffman, and Smith expects them to treat the series as a needed reset after falling behind 6-2 in the opener. He believes Singer’s 1.17 HR/9 makes him vulnerable to KC’s surging middle-order power and is betting that energy plus home field pushes the Royals to a series-evening win.

Lonte Smith took a swing on the White Sox at +210 and grabbed the +1.5 run line, arguing the market overrates Tyler McGill and an uneven Mets bullpen. Smith highlighted Shane Smith’s 2.36 ERA and sparkling 49-to-18 K/BB ratio, noting he has given up two earned or fewer in five of six starts and in four of five on the road. McGill has surrendered four-plus earned in three of his last four versus significantly stronger offenses, and New York’s bullpen has regressed since its hot April. Chicago just battled Texas tough over the weekend and, despite a 5-21 road mark, Smith thinks the price compensates. He expects a tight, low-scoring contest where the underdog’s pitching edge can steal it late.

Lonte Smith laid the short number with Atlanta, saying the market over-corrected on Spencer Strider’s slow start. Strider’s whiff rate and velocity are inching back toward career norms, and he owns a solid track record versus Philadelphia. Smith noted the Braves are batting above .280 over their last ten and already took two of three from the Phillies in early April, both wins by multiple runs. He dismissed Philadelphia’s current 9-1 run as schedule-aided (series against the A’s, Rockies, and Pirates) and pointed out that Ranger Suarez’s 6.1% swinging-strike rate gives Atlanta a chance to string together contact against the left-hander. Even acknowledging Atlanta’s season-long dip versus southpaws, Smith believes the offense’s recent surge plus Strider’s buy-low pricing at roughly ‑105 make the Braves the correct side to end the Phillies’ streak.

Lonte Smith grabbed the Giants at pick-em money, arguing Detroit’s home aura is masking real pitching trends. Logan Webb just gave up 10 hits to Kansas City yet has still held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in four straight road starts, so Smith expects a quick bounce-back. Jack Flaherty, by contrast, has lost six of his last seven outings, surrendering 10 homers in that span and eight earned runs across his last two Comerica appearances. While the Tigers are 18-8 at home, they are only 5-5 in their last ten, exactly matching San Francisco’s 6-4 surge. With both offenses cold and the total properly hung at seven, Smith forecasted another 3-2, 3-1 type game and opted for the Giants’ money line and run line (+1.5) as the sharper side.

Lonte Smith advised laying the short price with Baltimore (-115) and pairing it with the game over 9. He argued Tomoyuki Sugano is underrated—two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts while inducing grounders—and regularly works deep, giving the bullpen a breather. The Orioles’ bats have woken up, plating 5+ runs in five of their last six. St. Louis is far stronger at Busch than on the highway, and Andre Pallante’s best work has come at home; most of his 2025 starts on the road have been mediocre. Lonte projects a 6-5 type of game, so he wants both Baltimore’s money-line edge and the over.

Lonte Smith echoed the Guardians pick, adding fresh angles: the Dodgers are 4-6 in their last 10 and just dropped two of three to the Mets; they could have been swept if not for an extra-innings escape. May has surrendered four or more earned runs in two of his last three road outings while allowing 22 total hits in that span. Bibee, by contrast, has given up only four combined earned runs across his four home starts, routinely offering six-plus innings. With Cleveland returning from a 4-5 road swing, Lonte expects Progressive Field comfort plus market movement (opened +110, trending to even) to push the Guardians toward closing favoritism.

Lonte Smith’s favorite angle in Marlins-Angels is the Over 8.5. He pointed to Quantrill’s 6.37 season ERA and 1.67 road WHIP, noting the right-hander has already surrendered 15 walks in four May starts and gives up loud contact when forced into the zone. On the other side, Jose Soriano’s control disappears at times—11 free passes in his last three outings—which could hand Miami extra base-runners. Smith reminded listeners that the Marlins’ lineup is quietly league-average in wRC+ since May 1 and should capitalize on Soriano’s volatility, while the red-hot Angels have scored 44 runs during their seven-game winning streak. With both bullpens taxed after multiple high-leverage games this week, he expects late-inning fireworks and projected a 6-5 final, making anything under 9 a bet.

Smith doubled down on Under 8.5, pointing out that Milwaukee’s recent mini-surge has been streaky all year while Pittsburgh averages under three runs per game in May. Both clubs rank in the bottom third of hard-hit rate, and the bullpens enter Saturday with sub-3.40 ERAs over the past two weeks. He expects Keller and Priester to work deep enough to turn it into a 3-2 type grind.

Lonte Smith went hunting for long-ball ladders and landed on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to leave the yard—sprinkling the 2+ HR prop as well. Smith loves the environment at an open-roof Tropicana with first-pitch temps near 86° and a steady breeze pushing to right, exactly where Guerrero’s opposite-field power plays. More importantly, Shane Baz’s four-seam has been a launching pad: eight home runs allowed in his last four starts and a .598 SLG against when the wind aids fly balls. Guerrero is heating up (four barrels and a 110-mph max exit velo in the last five games) and owns a .610 xSLG against baz/high-spin fastballs. Smith expects the Jays to keep trending up offensively and called Vlad a live bet for multiple bombs at juicy odds.

Lonte Smith prefers isolating the Phillies’ offense and played their team total Over (expecting 5.5) instead of the side. Philadelphia owns MLB’s best May wRC+ (138) and has plated six-plus runs in seven of its last ten. Oakland’s arms are gassed – a 5.98 ERA for the staff this month – and the projected starter had not been announced, signaling another bullpen day. Smith praised Cristopher Sanchez’s road consistency but noted backing the team total lets him avoid late-inning variance if Rob Thomson manages aggressively with a big lead. He expects early traffic against an Athletics relief corps that is walking 11% of hitters and forecast a 7-3 or 8-4 type scoreboard explosion.

Lonte Smith went the other way, backing the Mets at –115 because he can’t trust Tony Gonsolin’s bleeding finger on his throwing hand. Smith pointed out Gonsolin’s five walks in his last start and worries the issue will linger in humid Citi Field conditions. Peterson, meanwhile, has been nails at home – two or fewer earned in four of his last five starts in Queens – and the Dodgers are only 12-11 on the road. Yes, the southpaw has a walk bugaboo (10 free passes over his last 16 innings), but Los Angeles ranks just 20th in chase rate versus lefties, giving Peterson a margin for error. Smith tagged the Mets’ bullpen (2.97 ERA in May) as another edge and expects a 4-2 New York victory.

Lonte Smith is backing Cleveland at any plus price because he is fading Casey Mize off a two-week layoff for a hamstring tweak. Smith hates betting pitchers in their first start back from soft-tissue injuries and expects A.J. Hinch to keep Mize on a short leash. He highlighted Ortiz’s slider – 7+ strikeouts in five of nine starts – and the fact that Detroit ranks 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Ortiz has battled walks, yet he’s surrendered fewer than three earned in three of his last four trips and should benefit from Comerica’s big alleys. Smith still likes the full-game Under but projects Cleveland to scratch out a 4-3 win behind a bullpen that owns a 2.91 ERA since May 10.

Lonte Smith grabbed Toronto at even money because he trusts Jose Berrios far more than the imploding Shane Baz. Smith rattled off Baz’s horror show: 19 earned runs in his last three home starts, eight homers allowed over his past four outings and a contact profile that gets crushed when the wind – as it will Saturday – pushes to right. Berrios isn’t perfect (slightly elevated contact rate, occasional walk spike) but has held opponents to two or fewer earned in three of his last four trips and sports a serviceable 4.19 road ERA. Smith noted the Blue Jays’ lineup is “finally trending up” and believes the breeze plus Baz’s four-seam location issues give Toronto an extra half-run of upside. He expects a 6-4 Jays win and is comfortable pairing the side with Reichel’s Over play.

With New York sitting –325 on the money line, Smith advised getting creative and attacked the Rockies’ weakest link—Kyle Freeland at altitude. Freeland has surrendered five-plus earned in two of his last three Coors Field outings, allows six-plus hits in five straight, and owns a 7.71 home ERA. Smith played the Yankees team total Over 7.5, citing their .373 wOBA against lefties and Coors’ 15% run-scoring boost. For ladder bettors he suggested alternate run lines of –3.5 or –4.5 at juicy plus money, adding that Max Freed’s 1.29 season ERA (0.71 on the road) gives New York plenty of margin for error if the bats only get to eight runs.

Smith pushed even harder on the South Side, playing Chicago first-five money line and full-game money line at +155. Cannon has allowed just two total earned runs across his three home starts and carries a 28% strike-out rate when pitching in Chicago. While Leiter did stabilize after surrendering 10 earned his first two May outings, Smith noted his swinging-strike rate is still below league average and he walks nearly 12% of hitters. Given that neither lineup can be trusted, Smith prefers shortening the game to fade the Rangers’ inconsistent bullpen (4.51 ERA last 14 days) and will sprinkle the full game as well, pairing both wagers with the Under 8.0.

Lonte Smith prefers Seattle at +105 because Bryan Wu is simply in better current form than Framber Valdez. Wu has yielded one combined run over his last two outings (Padres and Yankees) and carries a 0.92 WHIP in that span. Smith acknowledged Wu took a foul ball off the leg earlier in the week but added that the club cleared him and he finished a side session with no discomfort. Valdez’s contact profile worries Smith—his hard-hit rate is up six percentage points from last year, and right-handed batters post a .341 OBP against him. If the Mariners’ bats land somewhere between last month’s hot stretch and this week’s lull, Smith believes plus money is too generous. He double-dipped with the full-game Under, expecting another 3-2 type of night.

Lonte Smith echoed Reichel but added his own wrinkles. He likes Atlanta at plus money because Ronald Acuna Jr. is slated to rejoin the order and believes that presence alone raises the Braves’ projected run total by a half-run. Smith pointed out the Padres have dropped five straight to Atlanta, including three meetings earlier this season. While Michael King’s underlying metrics are strong, his hard-hit rate spikes to 47% on the road, and San Diego is just 11-18 away from Petco. With Atlanta’s pitching staff allowing only 2.9 runs per game at home, Smith expects a get-right spot for the Braves and played them straight up, pairing the wager with the Under because of San Diego’s ongoing offensive drought.

Lonte Smith echoed Reichel, saying if it ain’t broke don’t fix it—he’ll keep backing Boston and the Over. Smith argued Baltimore’s front office miscalculated by not adding pitching in the offseason, leaving them with a rotation posting a collective 4.98 ERA. Eflin’s home/road splits disappear at Fenway, and Boston’s lineup has a .359 wOBA against right-handers in May. Smith projected a 7-4 final and said he will ride the hot Red Sox bats until bookmakers adjust.

Lonte Smith prefers Pittsburgh at essentially pick’em because Mitch Keller has delivered three consecutive quality starts and a 3.80 seasonal ERA, whereas Quinn Priester has been relegated to bulk relief and brings minimal swing-and-miss stuff. Smith conceded the Pirate bats are ice-cold but thinks Keller can suppress an inconsistent Milwaukee lineup long enough for Pittsburgh to scratch out a few late runs. He still agrees with the full-game Under but believes the better pitcher tips the money-line value toward the Buccos.

Lonte Smith echoed the Under 8 call but added that St. Louis is worth a play at the short –115 price because Matthew Liberatore has given up one earned run or fewer in three straight Busch Stadium starts and owns a 1.80 home ERA. He set the game script at 3-2 Cardinals, pointing out that Kelly’s road ERA jumps to 4.28 and that Arizona’s lineup has struggled to elevate quality left-handed pitching all season (.292 wOBA vs LHP).

Lonte Smith expects Busch Stadium to host a shoot-out Friday. He highlighted that the Cardinals rank third in MLB over the last ten games with a .340 average versus righties and have plated five-plus runs in six of those contests. Arizona also profiles well at the plate, carrying a top-10 OPS against right-handed pitching. Smith simply does not trust the Diamondbacks’ bullpen (5.07 ERA) to bail out Zack Gallen once his command issues surface—Gallen has walked two or more in eight straight starts and served up four homers to Colorado his last time out. On the other side, Miles Mikolas’ home ERA sits at 4.70 and he gives up plenty of contact, creating a chance for the Snakes to contribute. With both lineups swinging it and two vulnerable pens in play, Smith projected double-digit runs and advised betting the Over up to 9.

Lonte Smith targeted the Over 8.5 in Seattle–Houston, citing two overmatched starters and travel-worn bullpens. Emerson Hancock sports a 6.21 ERA and has surrendered at least three runs in all four road turns, while Astros rookie Spencer Gusto was banished to relief duty after giving up seven earned in 2.1 innings his last start and now re-enters the rotation. Seattle’s offense quietly owns a top-10 road wRC+ and has slugged .450 away from T-Mobile Park, and Houston still ranks fifth in hard-hit percentage despite a middling overall record. Smith also leaned toward Seattle at even money because Hancock’s splits improve on the road (two earned or fewer in four straight) and the Mariners’ bullpen sits third in xFIP, whereas Houston’s late-inning corps has the sixth-worst ERA since May 1. Final score forecast: 6-4 either way, enough to clear the total.

Lonte Smith parlayed his Tigers lean with an Under 8.5 ticket, reasoning that Cleveland’s offense is "classic Guardians—just fine, not scary," and worn out from its third straight road series. Jobe has surrendered only four earned runs across his last three Comerica starts, while the Guardians are 3-7 over their past ten with a .291 OBP in that span. Smith acknowledged Jobe’s occasional walk issues but doubts Cleveland can capitalize. He expects Cechoni to keep Detroit in the park, producing a "4-2 or 3-2 type box score" that cashes the Under.

In addition to siding with Washington, Smith likes the full-game Over 8. He cited San Francisco’s contact-first starter Keaton Arouse working on short rest and MacKenzie Gore’s recent command hiccups (10 hits and multiple walks in 3.2 IP vs Baltimore) as reasons to believe both clubs can score. The Nationals have cleared five runs in three straight, and Smith expects their aggressive approach to translate versus a Giants staff that owns a below-average strikeout rate away from Oracle Park. Given Washington’s hot bats and San Francisco’s bullpen occasionally leaking oil on the road, he projects a 5-4 or 6-4 type game that sneaks Over the posted total.

Smith doubled down on the low-scoring narrative, calling the first-five Under his favorite play. Skenes has issued 3+ walks in three of his last four starts, but Milwaukee has been shut out three times in its last four games and owns only two runs in four of its last five overall. Peralta has surrendered four hits or fewer in four consecutive outings and sports a 2.75 ERA across his last six. Pittsburgh is 9-1 to the Under over its last 10 and has scored two or fewer in four of the last five, which leads Smith to anticipate a 0-0 or 1-0 scoreboard through five innings.

Lonte Smith targeted Yankees rookie Ben Rice in the home-run market, citing the friendly confines of Coors Field and a soft matchup. Coors has boosted left-handed homer production by 25% over the past three seasons, and Colorado is starting debuting right-hander Juan Mejia followed by a bullpen that owns MLB’s worst HR/9 (1.54). Smith pointed out Rice has barreled five balls in his last 18 batted-ball events and flashed 109-mph exit velocity, signs the swing is rounding into form. With New York carrying Friday’s highest implied run total and the thin air amplifying every fly ball, Smith is betting Rice ‘To Hit a Home Run’ at +450 or better.