Lonte Smith supports backing the Blue Jays with Kevin Gausman against the Mets, highlighting Gausman's solid initial outing (2 earned runs across 6 innings pitched). Smith mentioned Toronto's excellent hitting (.300 team batting average) and their four consecutive unders, reflecting strong pitching form. Furthermore, Smith pointed to the Mets' inconsistent offense, batting under .200 so far, providing a clear advantage to the Blue Jays in this matchup and making them a strong betting recommendation.

Lonte Smith predicts Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez will hit a home run against Brewers pitcher Nestor Cortes. Dominguez struggled in his previous game, going 0-for-3, but Smith believes Cortes presents a favorable matchup. Cortes has shown the tendency to occasionally miss location and leave pitches hittable, setting the stage perfectly for a Dominguez rebound in power. Smith sees Dominguez at a likely favorable price given his quiet previous performance, offering value as a bounce-back slugger with homerun upside against Cortes's vulnerability to mistakes over the plate.

Lonte Smith recommended fading Roki Sasaki early in his start against the Tigers, specifically targeting the first three innings. Sasaki's MLB debut showed significant control issues, evidenced by five walks in just three innings. Despite Sasaki's talent, Lonte sees value in betting against him early, anticipating continued struggles due to potential adjustment difficulties in MLB competition and lingering concerns related to possible arm fatigue following his challenging debut. This recommendation aims at capitalizing on early-game struggles before Sasaki settles or is removed.

Lonte Smith recommends betting the first five innings under for the Guardians vs Royals matchup, highlighting Seth Lugo's dominance against the Guardians in recent encounters. Lugo has surrendered just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two matchups against Cleveland. Additionally, Smith points out that Kansas City's lineup is particularly top-heavy, heavily dependent on their top bats for production. Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams, despite a rough season overall (3-10, 4.86 ERA in 2024), notably had a strong 3.56 ERA on the road last year and an excellent 2.25 ERA over 12 innings against the Royals specifically. Due to strong starting pitching trends and struggling offenses on both sides, Smith expects a low-scoring first half and a roughly 2-1 type game after five innings.

Lonte Smith proposes betting an over (8.5 runs) in the Phillies-Nationals game due to pitching volatility and history. While he acknowledges Jesus Luzardo pitched very well against the Phillies during his tenure in Miami (1.7 ERA last three games), he noted Luzardo was exposed by home runs, surrendering four over his last three starts against Philadelphia. Jake Irvin historically struggled against Philadelphia (4.7 ERA, averaging six hits per outing), further supporting a high-scoring scenario. With Nationals past struggles against lefties and both team's inconsistent pitching, Lonte expects offense to lead the day.

Lonte Smith foresees a rough Toronto debut for Max Scherzer against Baltimore based on his sluggish results last season. Scherzer struggled mightily against the Orioles in two starts last year, posting a combined line of 7.2 innings, 9 hits allowed, 6 earned runs, and a concerning 4-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Given Scherzer's declining performance and early-season difficulties facing this potent Orioles lineup, Lonte anticipates further struggles and sees this as an opportunity to fade Scherzer and bet the game's total to go over eight and a half runs.

Lonte Smith backs Erick Fedde and the Cardinals as home underdogs at plus money against the Twins. Fedde has historically dominated Minnesota, facing them twice last season and allowing only 6 combined hits and 2 runs while striking out an impressive 18 batters. Given the relatively even pitching matchup between Fedde and Joe Ryan, Lonte views home underdog pricing as clear value, expecting Fedde to continue his past success and even suggests betting Fedde's strikeout prop and win prop.

Lonte Smith expressed skepticism towards Max Fried's chances for success in his Yankees debut against the Brewers. Despite Fried's decent statistics historically (2-1, 1.3 ERA) against Milwaukee, Lonte specifically highlighted that he hasn't pitched against them since 2022 and noted lingering concerns over Fried's effectiveness late last year, noting previous injury issues and underperformance relative to his perceived reputation as a Cy Young fringe candidate. With Nestor Cortes effectively pitching against his old Yankees teammates in what's effectively a home-field situation, Lonte sees value in fading Fried at inflated prices on Saturday, recommending betting on the Brewers as underdogs.

Lonte Smith endorsed betting the White Sox both for the first five innings and full game against the Angels. He underlined Jonathan Cannon's impressive history against the Angels last year—two starts resulting in a 2-0 record, an outstanding 2.00 ERA, and just three hits allowed total. The White Sox, despite last year's struggles, consistently performed well historically against the Angels, winning seven of their last ten meetings, including a 4-game winning streak that carried into the current season. Lonte sees these historical and pitching matchup advantages as compelling reasons for betting on the White Sox, expecting something around a 5-2 White Sox victory.

Lonte Smith views the Astros as significantly undervalued favorites (-125) against Mets pitcher Griffin Canning. Smith emphasizes Canning's severe road struggles from last year—posting an 0-10 record and a notably poor 6.06 ERA away from home. Additionally, Canning has allowed considerable damage historically against Houston's lineup, surrendering 18 hits across just three starts last season. Arrighetti, despite some volatility last year, went through an impressive stretch mid-season where he consistently allowed two or fewer runs over nine straight starts. Given the potentially massive pitching edge combined with Houston’s strong home record, Smith sees clear value in betting the Astros both first-five and full game.