At 100-to-1, Smith loves Kyle Stowers as a pure upside swing. Eight of the last 11 MVPs have been reserve hitters, and Stowers just posted a three-homer game, signaling a scorching bat. Smith noted that a late pinch-hit "bomb" in a bases-loaded spot is exactly how recent longshots have cashed, making Stowers the type of volatility he wants to chase.

Smith’s second dart is Byron Buxton, citing the Twin’s weekend cycle as evidence that his bat is locked in. Buxton’s power-speed profile fits the All-Star Game MVP template—he can leave the yard or swipe a bag in a single trip. At long-shot odds, Smith likes buying into a hitter who is "in really good form" and capable of filling up the box score in multiple categories.

Lonte Smith tabbed Elly De La Cruz at 25-to-1 as his favorite MVP bet. Smith expects a high-scoring exhibition and argued that De La Cruz’s rare blend of 80-grade speed and 450-foot power plays perfectly in a game where one highlight can decide the award. If the Reds phenom reaches base, Smith thinks he’ll "try to steal multiple bases," and a stolen-base/extra-base-hit combo has produced several recent MVPs. Add in the possibility of an electric defensive gem and Smith believes De La Cruz’s ceiling dwarfs the mid-tier price.

Lonte Smith is siding with the National League despite its 1-28 stretch, arguing that the NL’s collection of arms gives it the higher ceiling in a one-off exhibition. He highlighted starter Paul Skenes and a bullpen full of swing-and-miss relievers, noting the NL staff is "more prone to getting strikeouts," exactly what you want when every opposing hitter is an elite bat. In a game where pitchers rarely face the same batter twice, Smith believes that superior whiff potential offsets the AL’s historical edge and makes the NL a worthy play at pick-em odds.

Lonte Smith recommended loading up on Trevor Story’s hitting markets—specifically total bases and an anytime homer—against his former club, Colorado. Story enters the matchup on an eight-game hit streak that includes three home runs, and Lonte believes facing Rockies pitching at Fenway is the ideal "get-right" spot to keep that run alive. Colorado will lean on a bottom-five staff that owns a 5.34 road ERA and just allowed 27 runs in three games over the weekend. Story’s 52% pull rate at Fenway pairs nicely with the short left-field wall, and his homer prop is trading between +425 and +475. Smith said he is betting the HR number both tonight and tomorrow in case the first salvo doesn’t land, but he expects at least one "time-traveling dinger" during the series.

Lonte Smith pounced on Philadelphia at +130, calling the number "absurd" given San Francisco’s offensive funk. Robbie Ray has been solid (2.57 home ERA) but owns homer and walk issues that a power-heavy Phillies lineup can exploit. Philadelphia is 6-4 over its last 10, swinging well, and Smith pointed out that the Giants just returned from three straight road series where they played .500 ball at best. San Francisco ranks 26th in OPS versus right-handed pitching, and Taijuan Walker will only be asked to serve as a two- or three-inning opener before a strong Phillies bullpen (3.41 ERA last 30 days) takes over. Smith’s bottom-line read: the Giants’ offensive struggles do not justify a –156 price, so the value sits squarely with the road dog.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford and grabbed Astros –1.5 at plus money, calling it ‘a gift.’ Brown has surrendered two or fewer in seven straight and boasts a 1.82 ERA, while Cleveland’s offense is in free-fall—hitting below .180 and scoring just 1.5 runs on five hits per game over the past ten. Cantillo rarely works past the third inning, meaning a taxed Guardians bullpen will be exposed early. Houston has won eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings and just dismantled the Dodgers without Jeremy Pena or Yordan Alvarez. Smith noted that the Astros have covered the run line in six of their last eight and predicted that trend continues versus an anemic Cleveland lineup averaging 3.1 runs during its 10-game skid.

Lonte Smith is doubling down on the White Sox, taking both the first-five and full-game money lines at +146. He pointed to Chris Bassitt’s ugly road profile—6.38 ERA with 29 earned runs in his last six away starts, including 11 earned over his past two outings. Chicago’s bats have perked up to a .250 clip over the last ten and just tagged the Dodgers in a series win, while their bullpen has produced a 2.25 ERA during that span. Aaron Civale has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in all three of his home appearances and in seven of his last eight overall, giving Smith confidence the Sox will be live early. He also reminded listeners that Chicago took two of three in Toronto in mid-June, both victories coming by multiple runs. With Toronto’s eight-game win streak masking mediocre underlying metrics (Bassitt’s 1.49 WHIP, four one-run wins), Smith sees value backing the south-siders to spoil the streak.

Lonte Smith labeled Pirates-Royals a “dead-nuts under.” Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the under in its last ten, hitting just .208 on the road with 2.8 runs per nine over that span. Kansas City has cashed unders in six of ten and remains hard to trust offensively. Smith likes both starters: Mitch Keller has righted the ship with back-to-back wins and is rumored to be on the trade block, giving him added incentive. Seth Lugo has surrendered one earned run or fewer in five straight, including 11⅓ scoreless at home against the Dodgers and Yankees. Smith projected a 3-2 Royals win and grabbed the under 8.5, confident neither lineup can string together rallies against these form pitchers.

Lonte Smith scrapped the traditional side-and-total approach and zeroed in on Boston’s team total over (posted at 4.5 when he looked). Smith loves the match-up for the Red Sox offense after they just swept Washington while hanging 27 runs. Boston has plated five-plus in six of its last ten, is slashing nearly .300 over that stretch and averages 6.18 runs per game at Fenway. Kyle Freeland is the perfect punching bag: a 1-9 record, 5.49 ERA, heavy pitch-to-contact profile and a homer-to-fly-ball rate that balloons outside Coors. Smith noted that if Freeland doesn’t have it early, Colorado’s bullpen—30th in ERA—will only accelerate the damage. With Brayan Bello turning in two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four, Lonte expects Boston to play from ahead and clear the team-total number on their own.

Lonte Smith agreed the value sits with Seattle as a small underdog. He acknowledged Logan Gilbert has struggled in his last two road outings but still grades out better than Will Warren, who just allowed eight earned runs to Toronto. With the Yankee offense slumping and their bullpen overworked, Smith is willing to overlook Gilbert’s minor road hiccups and back the Mariners money-line.

Lonte Smith recommended backing Tampa at roughly –125 because Ryan Pepiot owns the clear edge over Jack Flaherty. Pepiot has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts and shows swing-and-miss stuff with 7+ strikeouts in four of his past six. He already stifled Detroit on June 21 (1 ER over 5.1 IP, 3 H). Flaherty has been wildly inconsistent—one good start, one blow-up—and faces a Rays line-up that has historically hit him hard. Detroit’s offense has been winning despite middling numbers, so Smith sees value on the better arm. He also leaned to the over given that every game in the previous series landed 12, 11 and 22 runs, but his primary wager is Rays money-line.

Lonte Smith suggested taking a shot on a CJ Abrams home-run prop against Walker Buehler. Abrams rides a seven-game hitting streak and has already matched last year’s homer total despite playing half his games in pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. Buehler, meanwhile, has given up 10 long balls in his last three starts and sports a bloated 6.15 xERA. With Saturday’s total sitting at 9.5 and Smith predicting another offensive outburst, he likes Abrams at 5/1 or better to take advantage of Buehler’s 2.3 HR/9 road figure and the short porches in Washington.

Lonte Smith said to lay the –1.5 with San Francisco and give the full-game Over a look because Luis Severino simply cannot keep the ball in the park at the Coliseum. Severino has surrendered multiple home runs in three of his last five home starts and carries a 7.38 ERA in Oakland this year. Smith conceded that Logan Webb is never elite on the road, but his 3.81 away ERA is the best of his career and the Giants have averaged 5.2 runs of support in his last six road turns. Webb’s high contact profile (6-plus hits allowed in seven of his last eight outings) actually helps the Over, but Smith expects most of the damage to come from a Giants lineup that should feast on a pitcher who has given up 15 earned runs in his last three home appearances. He is comfortable laying up to –120 on the run line and will bet the total at nine or lower.

Lonte Smith is laying the small –115 with Colorado because German Marquez has rediscovered his 2021 form while the White Sox counter with a rusty Jimmy Canning coming off a back-strain layoff. Marquez has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight, posting a 1.33 ERA against offenses such as Milwaukee, the Dodgers, and Atlanta, and he has yielded one run or less in three of his last four outings at Coors Field. Smith expects Colorado’s lineup to capitalize on Canning’s lingering control issues—he walked three in just 3.2 innings in his first start back—and likes that Chicago’s bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the league since June 1. Even with an 11.5 total on the board, he leans Under but the stronger play is Rockies money-line at anything –120 or better.

Lonte Smith said he is betting both the Tigers money-line and the full-game Under because Casey Mize gives Detroit a massive edge over Logan Allen and a punch-less Guardians lineup. Since returning from the IL, Mize has allowed three runs or fewer in every start and has held opponents to two or less in three straight on the road. Smith pointed out that Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last eight and is now dealing with a clearly compromised Jose Ramirez, who is hitless in his last 18 at-bats while playing through multiple nagging injuries. With the wind blowing out to right, Allen’s platoon advantage against Detroit’s right-hand heavy order diminishes, and Smith believes the Tigers can win even if they only plate three runs. He will fire on Detroit up to –150 and play the Under at 9 or better.

Lonte Smith is on Arizona -130 and the Under 8.5 because Ryne Nelson has morphed into a reliable home arm while Michael Wacha is trending the opposite direction. Nelson owns a sparkling 2.33 ERA at Chase Field and has allowed just two total runs in his last four home starts (four earned in his last four overall). Wacha’s pitch-to-contact approach is catching up to him: he has yielded at least three earned in four of five, surrendering 17 hits over his last 11 innings. Kansas City’s offense has produced two runs or fewer in five of its past eight games, and Smith fears their bullpen can’t protect a lead even if Wacha keeps it close. He projects a 4-2 Diamondbacks win.

Lonte Smith called the Yankees a bargain at -150 and loves their team total Over against Frankie Montas. Rodon is ‘due for a big month’, having allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four road starts and already blanking the Mets earlier this season (1 ER over 5 IP). Montas, meanwhile, cratered for five runs in one inning versus Pittsburgh and has given up at least four earned in six of his last eight appearances. Smith projected New York to hang crooked numbers early, recommending Yankees first-five -0.5 and folding their money-line into a two-leg parlay with Tampa Bay. He believes the proper line should be closer to -170.

Lonte Smith advised laying the -1.5 with Philadelphia because Ranger Suarez is in peak form while Nick Lodolo rarely works deep. Suarez has logged 7+ innings in five straight and posted a 1.26 ERA over that span, four of those outings coming on the road. He has yielded only three earned runs total in his last three home starts and continues to dominate with a heavy ground-ball profile. Lodolo, by contrast, has coughed up a homer in six consecutive starts and usually leaves after five innings, putting a shaky Reds bullpen on the hook for the final third of the game. Smith projected a 3-1 or 4-1 Phillies win, noting that Lodolo’s road ERA is more than a run higher than at Great American Ball Park.

Lonte Smith views Washington as a live underdog and loves the full-game Over because Walker Buehler’s numbers have cratered. Buehler hasn’t cleared four innings in his last three starts and has surrendered 4+ earned runs in five of six. On the road his last three turns: 24 ER, 10 homers allowed, and 14 walks. Smith believes any Nationals lineup that features CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas can punish that level of wildness, and starter Mitchell Parker has been serviceable enough (3.69 home ERA) to keep them in front. He is waiting for a plus-money tag on Washington but will fire as long as the Nats are no worse than -105 and will pair it with the Over 9.5.

Lonte Smith likes Toronto -1.5 and the full-game Over because interim manager Ray Montgomery has shortened Angels starters’ leashes. Only 3 of 9 starters under him have hit 90 pitches, and Kochanowicz has failed to reach the sixth inning in six of his last eight outings. That means an overtaxed bullpen will have to cover at least four frames against a Jays offense that already ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate at home. Kochanowicz’s 41% fly-ball rate makes him susceptible to Rogers Centre’s short porches, and Smith expects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company to capitalize quickly. Even if Max Scherzer is merely average, Smith projects Toronto to win by multiple runs in a 7-4 type game.

Lonte Smith said to back the Cardinals money-line Saturday because Matthew Liberatore has quietly reeled off four straight wins, each of them quality starts. One of those came two weeks ago at Busch, when he limited Chicago to 2 ER over 7.0 IP, so he already owns a fresh look at this lineup. Smith thinks that edge is magnified at Wrigley because the Cubs will likely counter with recalled rookie Jordan Wicks after Jameson Taillon landed on the IL. Wicks allows hard contact and the wind is forecast to be blowing out. With St. Louis’ offense finally healthy and Paul Goldschmidt heating up, Smith expects the Cards to jump on the inexperienced lefty and give Liberatore enough cushion to extend the streak.

For his home-run dart, Lonte Smith picked Nico Hoerner against Miles Mikolas in Friday’s matinee. Hoerner has homered three times in his last nine starts after going homer-less most of the season, and the wind is forecast to blow out toward left at 8 mph. Mikolas allows plenty of contact, and his recent Wrigley proxy (Jameson Taillon fill-in) has surrendered 15 earned over three home outings with four or fewer strikeouts in five of six. Smith likes Hoerner’s recent barrel uptick and expects multiple long balls in a game he is already betting over 10.5.

Lonte Smith prefers Kansas City on the first-five line behind Kris Bubich rather than trusting either bullpen. Bubich has been lights-out away from Kauffman Stadium (1.80 road ERA) and the Royals’ bats need only scratch out a run or two to cash because Arizona’s relief corps owns one of baseball’s worst late-inning ERAs. Smith acknowledged Eduardo Rodriguez’s recent form but still sees value in a coin-flip first half that removes the Diamondbacks’ shaky pen from the equation.

Lonte Smith laid the modest –120 with Milwaukee, arguing the Brewers should be at least –140 on current form. He rattled off a laundry list of edges: Milwaukee owns the league’s best road offense over the last ten games (.290 average, 6.4 runs per nine) and they excel in small-ball situations that exploit Sandy Alcantara’s well-documented struggles holding runners. Alcantara flashed a solid June but was rocked for 10 hits and seven earned by Arizona in his last start and still carries an xERA north of 4.50. Freddy Peralta, meanwhile, dominated June with a 1.98 ERA and has allowed two or fewer earned in four of his last five road outings. Miami is hot (seven-plus runs in eight of ten) but Smith trusts Milwaukee’s lineup depth, baserunning and bullpen more and believes the number will climb once sharper money fades Alcantara again.

Smith laid the modest –116 on San Diego, citing a home/road split and pitching gap. Vasquez has had some June length issues but is generally steadier, while Rocker has surrendered five-plus runs in three of his last five road outings. Smith conceded the Rangers’ recent offensive spike (six or more in six of eight) but expects regression in spacious Petco. He made the Padres closer to –125 and wants to beat the market before it corrects.

Smith plans to bet Seattle in every game of the weekend set, price permitting. Pittsburgh has surged to eight wins in its last ten but six of those came at PNC Park; on the road the Bucs are just 7-21 over their last 28. Even with five-plus runs in seven of the last ten, Smith doubts the offense travels. Seattle is 6-4 in its last ten, hits right-handers well, and owns a strong home record. With either Bryan Woo or Luis Castillo likely to get the ball and the Pirates countering with Bailey Falter, Smith sees a clear edge for the M’s and wants a series-long position before the market adjusts.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the Rays, saying anything with a plus sign is an auto-bet. Tampa is batting .280 over the past ten and has won four of six on the road. Lattell allowed one earned over 6.1 innings in the May meeting with Minnesota and has generally been steady, despite some homer issues (13 long balls in his last nine starts). Smith pointed to the Twins’ .224 team average in their last ten and emphasized Paddock’s hard-contact problems, adding that Minnesota has lost 10 of 14 at home. Better offense, better pitcher, plus money – Smith called it a no-brainer.

Smith took a more aggressive stance, grabbing Cincinnati on the first-five line with Andrew Abbott on the mound. The rookie left-hander has given up ONE combined run across his last four road starts and has held opponents to one earned or fewer in 12 of 14 overall. That dominance offsets Cincinnati’s season-long issues versus lefties, and betting only the first five removes a suspect Reds bullpen from the equation. Smith expects Abbott’s fastball-change combo to neutralize a Phillies lineup that still shuffles pieces around Harper and has struggled for consistency. With Luzardo also in good form, he anticipates a low-scoring first half but trusts Abbott slightly more, making the Reds first-five moneyline his preferred angle.

Lonte Smith planted his flag on Brandon Lowe’s home-run prop, predicting not one but two long balls against Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics. Lowe carries a 17-game hitting streak and has gone deep three times in his last four contests while posting elite underlying power metrics. Springs struggles to keep the ball in the park—ranking among the top 15 in homers allowed—and Tropicana Field is playing smaller than usual this summer. Smith believes Lowe’s current barrel rate plus Springs’ fly-ball profile create a perfect storm for a multi-homer night and urged bettors to ladder Lowe’s dinger props for plus-money payouts.

Lonte Smith recommended playing the White Sox team-total under against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, forecasting a bounce-back masterpiece from the Japanese ace. Yamamoto has been inconsistent—12 earned runs in his last three Dodger Stadium outings—but Smith believes a middling Chicago lineup provides the perfect get-right spot. The Sox are merely 5-5 over their past 10 and rank near the bottom of MLB in road OPS. Southpaw Shane Smith has coughed up 10 earned in just 6.1 innings across his last two starts, which should allow the Dodgers to race out front and let Yamamoto work with a cushion. Smith projected seven to eight scoreless frames from Yamamoto and a final score in the 6-1 or 7-0 neighborhood, making the ChiSox team-total under his favorite angle on the board.