Madlab Michael Lurato backed Jordan Leavitt at –190 and prefers the Decision prop that is still floating in the +130 to +150 range. Lurato said Holobaugh’s "one fatal leak is takedown defence— you can lock a body-lock and put him on his back without even shooting." Leavitt averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes and, according to Madlab, possesses an underrated positional IQ: he re-centres his hips, dead-weights inside half-guard and generally strands opponents on the canvas for the rest of the round. In the UFC Apex’s smaller cage those entries get even easier because Holobaugh cannot circle out to space. Madlab admitted Leavitt’s boxing is "horrible," but argued Holobaugh’s early striking success will vanish the moment Leavitt claspes hands. Because Leavitt rarely chases low-percentage subs, Lurato expects top-control to pile up and projects a 30-27 or 29-28 scorecard. Actionable angle: play Leavitt straight or take the safer plus-money decision prop rather than hunting a submission.

Madlab Michael Lurato cautioned listeners against automatically backing newcomer Andreas Gustafsson at –175 or tossing him into parlays. Lurato said tape shows Gustafsson as a high-octane clinch brawler who loads every shot, looks lost at distance and has yet to beat anyone UFC-caliber despite being older than Giles. Conversely, Giles—despite a shaky chin and three-fight skid—owns far cleaner boxing fundamentals, sharper jabs down the pipe and enough footwork to keep the fight at the range where Gustafsson struggles. If Giles protects his chin, Madlab believes he is simply the better technician and can steal rounds or a late finish. Actionable plan: pass on the Swedish favorite, consider a small dog stab on Giles at +145 or better, and definitely leave Gustafsson off parlay tickets.

Madlab Michael Lurato recommended backing Macy Chiasson now that the market has flipped her to a slight favorite (-118) after opening as a dog. Lurato compared Chiasson’s game to a female Tim Means—long limbs, slicing elbows, and a willingness to turn clinches into bloodbaths—and believes her renewed "violent hunger" solves the focus issues that plagued earlier performances. Ketlen Vieira, while far more battle-tested (five former or current champions on her resume), fights in one gear and often matches her opponent’s pace. Lurato expects Chiasson to out-land 3-to-1 with knees and elbows inside, producing the flashier optics judges reward. He also questioned Vieira’s urgency after a high-profile loss to Kayla Harrison, contrasting that with Chiasson’s two-fight win streak and upward divisional trajectory. Because Vieira rarely targets the body—Chiasson’s one known defensive hole—Madlab sees limited finishing danger and projects a clear 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard for the New Orleans native. Betting blueprint: lay the small juice on Chiasson ML or take Chiasson by Decision at plus money if books hang +140 or better.

Madlab Michael Lurato kept it simple: Bruno Lopes ‘throws spaghetti at the wall’ while Dustin Jacoby is a high-pedigree kickboxer who always fights down the centre line. Jacoby strings punches together like a pool player planning three shots ahead, whereas Lopes routinely gets baited into the wrong exchanges and has already been knocked out once on Dana White’s Contender Series. Madlab does not completely trust Jacoby’s consistency but believes Lopes’ willingness to brawl will gift the veteran clean counters all night. Because Jacoby’s technical striking is several tiers above and Lopes’ defensive reactions are late, Lurato expects Jacoby to sting him on a mistake and eventually finish the job. Betting angle: play Jacoby by KO/TKO (prop currently unpriced in the transcript but implied value) rather than the –190 money-line, as the stoppage route is far more likely than a decision given their styles.

Madlab Michael Lurato called Billy Ray Goff a “kamikaze” who is happy to eat three to land one and owns the cardio to weaponize that style. He views opponent Rameez Brahimaj as pure first-round-or-bust: lactic acid hits and his ATP recovery just never returns. The fight takes place in the Apex’s small cage, increasing collision frequency and limiting Brahimaj’s ability to stall once fatigued. Lurato noted Goff’s collegiate wrestling base neutralises Brahimaj’s lone grappling path and praised Goff’s durability – traits that should allow him to survive the early blitz, then swarm once Brahimaj’s gas tank empties. Current markets list Goff by KO at +125 but the Round 2 KO prop sits at +450, a number Madlab called “worth throwing a little nut sack on the table.” Recommended play: sprinkle Goff Round 2 KO (+450) or use it as a long-shot leg in four-fight round-robins.

Madlab Michael Lurato laid out a clear betting roadmap for Mateusz Gamrot, preferring the ‘by decision’ angle at ‑120 over the juiced ‑160 money-line. Lurato expects Gamrot to "spam and spam and spam" takedowns for the full 15 minutes, leveraging the Apex’s smaller cage to suffocate Ludovit Klein’s kick-heavy striking game. He conceded Klein’s 90 % takedown-defense looks impressive on paper but noted that previous opponents weren’t chain-shooters of Gamrot’s caliber. Gamrot is 5-0 in Apex bouts (4-1 if you re-score the Sarukyan fight) and routinely wins minutes through top control even when he fails on initial entries. With Klein’s best win coming against Ignacio Bahamondes and his 1-2 record in the small cage, Madlab sees a grind-heavy Gamrot victory as the most probable outcome and advised bettors to target the decision prop or look for Gamrot money-line only if it drops below ‑150.

Madlab Michael Lurato took Blanchfield on the money-line despite admitting the -250 price is a little steep. He argued Barber’s game is built on bullying smaller, less physical opponents but her takedown-defence is the major leak: she has been grounded in five straight bouts and even conceded two head-and-arm throws to Amanda Ribas— a move Lurato calls a “low-percentage takedown.” In contrast, Blanchfield trains under Carl Pravec at Silver Fox BJJ, the same room that produced Danielle Kelly, and owns the clearly superior grappling pedigree. Lurato noted Blanchfield still fires 100+ striking attempts per fight and is every bit as tough as Barber, which neutralises Barber’s usual ‘Joe Frazier-style’ pressure advantage. He expects Blanchfield to secure takedowns whenever Barber crashes pocket range, control top position and either grind out a decision or jump on a submission if Barber gives up her back. Actionable play: bet Blanchfield straight or include her as a parlay anchor, with a lean to Blanchfield by Decision but a live submission sprinkle.