Malcolm Bamford rejected a full-game play and instead backed Pittsburgh first-five innings. He likes Bailey Falter’s underlying profile—1.18 WHIP despite a pedestrian ERA—and thinks the left-hander has been unlucky. Conversely, Justin Verlander is 1-8 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.49 WHIP; San Francisco merely papered over his issues in snapping a six-game personal skid last start despite five walks. The Giants are just 9-15-2 F5 versus southpaws, while Pittsburgh enters 6-4 in its last 10 overall. By isolating the opening five frames, Bamford avoids the Pirates’ suspect bullpen and wagers that Falter can out-duel a name-brand pitcher running on fumes.

Malcolm Bamford grabbed the Mets at –125 because every current form angle points their way. New York brings a seven-game winning streak and a rejuvenated rotation: Sean Manaea has allowed exactly one earned run in each of three starts since returning from the IL and increased his workload to five innings last time out. The lineup is humming—Ronny Mauricio went 4-for-4 Sunday—and the bullpen just added hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto. On the other side, Yu Darvish is coming off his worst outing in four and has yet to show the whiff rate that normally buoys his profile. Until Darvish proves he’s right, Bamford said he’ll keep fading him and projects the Mets to win a comfortable 5-3 type game.

Malcolm Bamford said the plus-120 moneyline on Washington is too tempting with Houston stuck in an ugly funk. The Astros have surrendered the first run in 18 straight games and have not shown the veteran leadership to claw back once they fall behind. Lance McCullers owns an 11.86 home ERA and a 7.71 mark for July, winning just one of his last five outings. By contrast, Mike Soroka has kept Washington in games—two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five road starts—even if the club has failed to cash those efforts. Bamford thinks the combination of Soroka’s competence and Houston’s early-game malaise makes the Nats the clear value side and is willing to shop for an even bigger price before first pitch.

Bamford grabbed Arizona as a short dog behind Brandon Pfaadt. The right-hander has strung together three straight quality outings, finally limiting home runs and carrying a decent WHIP despite a bloated ERA. Casey Mize, meanwhile, has surrendered 10 earned runs over his last two starts, and Detroit had lost six straight before salvaging Sunday’s finale. Arizona averages more runs per game than Detroit, and its bullpen owns a top-five ERA over the last week. Bamford sees the better current form on the D-backs side and happily took plus money.

Bamford laid the run line with Cleveland. The Rockies have been a disaster away from Coors, getting out-scored 89-35 in their last 13 road games (-54 differential). They also strike out 26 % and own a .091 average versus left-handed pitching over the past two weeks, a terrible matchup against Logan Allen. Colorado starter Tanner Gordon is still a question mark on the road, and Bamford prefers the Guardians’ steadier bullpen. He’s fading Colorado’s travel woes and swing-and-miss profile by taking Cleveland ‑1.5.

Malcolm Bamford said the Blue Jays should not be underdogs in Game 1 of Tuesday’s double-header. He likes Toronto at +110 because Eric Lauer has been "rock-solid" while Charlie Morton has looked more vulnerable over the past month. Toronto’s bats have caught fire, winning eight of their last 10 and hammering Detroit over the weekend. Baltimore is just 5-5 in that same span. With the hotter lineup and the steadier pitcher, Bamford called it a classic wrong-team-favored spot and grabbed the moneyline.

Bamford is targeting an Angels first-five (or even first-three) wager rather than a full-game play. His angle hinges on Seattle’s well-documented struggles against left-handed pitching—they often start slowly before adjusting—and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi’s decent surface numbers at home. Conversely, Seattle rookie Logan Evans owns a 5.06 ERA in five road starts with 39 hits, six homers, and eight walks in only 26.2 innings, making him highly hittable early. Bamford concedes the Halos’ bullpen is shaky, so he wants exposure only to the opening frames where those splits favor Los Angeles.

Malcolm Bamford said Cleveland is the right side in both the first-five and full-game markets. He noted that, although the Guardians look like a basic .500 club, they are 39-30 when facing left-handed pitching, while the Orioles are just 12-17 and a dreadful 8-18-3 in the first five innings against southpaws. Logan Allen has been steady with a 4.06 ERA home and away, whereas Charlie Morton just got rocked in Tampa and now owns a 6.81 road ERA. Bamford also trusts Cleveland’s bullpen edge, so he laid the short price on the Guardians moneyline and will sprinkle the F5 as well.

Malcolm Bamford targeted Francisco Lindor to go deep against Kyle Hendricks in Tuesday’s Mets–Angels clash. Bamford’s logic is simple: fade Hendricks, whose 4.88 season ERA balloons to 5.40 on the road and who has yielded 10 earned runs and four homers across his last three outings. Earlier in the show he highlighted Hendricks’ inability to miss bats as the catalyst behind his Over 9.5 ticket on this same matchup. With Pete Alonso questionable after missing a few games, Bamford pivots to Lindor’s switch-hitting power and 43% hard-hit rate versus right-handers. Citi Field is expected to have light, hitter-friendly winds, giving Lindor an extra bump in home-run-prop markets that were still hanging north of +450 at recording time.

Bamford leaned heavily toward the Mets, either on the moneyline (-180) or a team-total Over 5, explaining that Nick Martinez was torched for 10 earned runs by Miami two outings ago and is generally hard to trust. Clay Holmes owns a tidy 3.16 ERA at Citi Field, and New York’s overall home splits are significantly stronger than Cincinnati’s road numbers. The hefty juice made him consider the team total instead, but the core thesis is the same: expect the Mets’ bats to do most of the talking against a shaky Martinez and an overexposed Reds bullpen.

Bamford grabbed Miami at even money, highlighting that their lineup profiles well against ‘soft-contact’ righties like Michael Wacha. Wacha’s K-rate and velocity have dipped, and Kansas City has dropped his last four starts despite a serviceable outing against the Mets. Conversely, Cal Quantrill has pieced together a fortunate but effective stretch and matches up with a Royals club that struggles against low-spin sinkers and sliders. Because he couldn’t find a single positive trend for KC—no split, stat, or bullpen edge—Bamford felt the Marlins needed only a modest excuse to be the play, and the matchup versus Wacha supplied it.

Malcolm Bamford sided with the Blue Jays at +105, arguing the number is too generous for a club that handles left-handed pitching considerably better than the Giants do. He acknowledged Robbie Ray has been rock-solid (2.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.81 road ERA) but pointed out San Francisco is just 4-15-7 in first-five results versus lefties, a sign their bats lag early. Toronto’s pen has been dependable, so Bamford expects four to five effective relief innings if Eric Lauer’s shorter outings continue. In his eyes, a competent bullpen plus a lineup that wears down southpaws makes Toronto the slightly better team, and getting that at plus money in their own park is enough value to fire.

Bamford threw a dart at Alejandro Kirk at 100-to-1, calling the Blue Jays backstop a "little fat catcher who can hit one over the fence." Kirk’s contact skills and sneaky pop make him the kind of reserve who could enter late, park a homer, and steal voter headlines—exactly how several longshot MVPs have cashed this past decade.

Malcolm Bamford independently landed on Kyle Stowers at triple-digit odds, pointing to the Elias Diaz template—come off the bench, run into one, walk away with the trophy. Bamford reminded listeners that Stowers’ weekend three-homer explosion shows the power is real and that reserve hitters have dominated recent MVP voting. With bases-loaded heroics all it takes, Bamford felt the 100-to-1 price was "completely nutty" relative to Stowers’ path.

Malcolm Bamford said he is happily backing the American League at the pick-em price-point (-111) simply because the league has owned the midsummer classic. The AL has dropped the National League in all but one All-Star Game since 2013, winning 28 of the last 35 overall. Bamford compared it to seeing seven straight reds on a roulette wheel—he is not stepping in front of that heater until it finally cools off. With nothing separating the rosters on paper, he believes the long-term trend itself provides enough betting edge to justify taking the AL moneyline.

Malcolm Bamford backed Brent Rooker to go yard against Tanner Bibee, noting the Guardians rookie has already surrendered 11 homers in just eight road starts and a 4.84 ERA away from Cleveland. Rooker, meanwhile, remains Oakland’s premier power threat with 19 bombs and a .570 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching. Bamford said the A’s temporary Sacramento venue has played small all month and Friday’s forecast calls for a stiff breeze blowing out to left, further boosting Rooker’s chances. Given Bibee’s 1.6 HR/9 and Rooker’s penchant for punishing belt-high fastballs, Bamford expects sportsbooks to hang a generous +350 or better that he believes should be closer to +275.

Malcolm Bamford is laying the –1.5 with Los Angeles, calling the matchup ‘like finding money in the street.’ Washington limps into Chavez Ravine on an 11-game losing streak that includes series defeats to the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies. Manager David Martinez publicly blasted his roster mid-week, a sign Bamford interprets as clubhouse turmoil. On the mound, Clayton Kershaw carries a pristine 2.16 ERA for June, while counterpart MacKenzie Gore draws a powerhouse Dodger lineup that historically mashes left-handers. Bamford projected a 7-1 final and noted the run line is still plus-money (+105), making it his preferred way to attack a game where the money-line sits near –200.

Malcolm Bamford echoed the San Diego angle, calling this ‘the perfect spot’ to fire on the Padres if you can still find –150 or better. He conceded Lorenzen has been a tick sharper of late, but pointed out that those outings came against light-hitting clubs and his road splits remain ugly (5.94 ERA away from Kauffman). Bamford has struggled to time Pivetta starts, yet noted Petco is the venue where he trusts the right-hander most. With the Royals still just 2-8 over their last 10 despite a mini two-game uptick, and San Diego already 21-12 at home, Bamford is happy to ride the Friars as a mid-range favorite.

Malcolm Bamford is zagging with the under 11, citing Zac Gallen’s bizarrely elite history in Denver—2.79 ERA and 50 Ks across seven Coors starts. He even flagged a potential strikeout prop (≈7.5) given that 7.1-per-start pace. Austin Gomber, meanwhile, tossed five scoreless against Atlanta last week and owns the platoon edge versus Arizona’s left-heavy lineup. Bamford admits betting an under in Coors is nerve-racking but sees value if books hang 11 or higher and believes Gallen’s mile-high magic plus a cooler evening forecast can keep this inside 10 runs.

Malcolm Bamford is isolating New York’s bats and playing their team-total under. He trusts Zack Wheeler to ‘lock them down’, noting the Mets were blanked again Thursday and have fallen into an offensive funk on the road. Wheeler’s home splits are even nastier than his season line, while the Mets sit bottom-10 in wRC+ as visitors. Bamford called Tylor Megill ‘reliably average’, making him reluctant to lay a full-game under because Philadelphia could score. Instead he projects ≤3 runs for New York and will attack whatever team-total books hang, ideally 3.5 or higher.

Malcolm Bamford is betting over 8.5 in Reds-Cardinals, reasoning that both starters’ split flaws add the extra runs needed. Brady Singer has been a metronome—five-to-six innings with two-to-three earned runs in five straight outings—but his road ERA (4.26) is a full run higher than at home. Andre Pallante sports nearly identical peripherals yet carries a 4.50 ERA at Busch Stadium versus 3.10 on the highway. Bamford projects each offense to scratch out three early runs, then tack on late insurance against bullpens that both rank bottom-10 in FIP over the last month (Reds 4.58, Cards 4.62). With Singer delivering only three strikeouts per outing and Pallante walking 10.4 % of batters, he expects plenty of traffic and likes anything 9 or lower, calling 5-4 a realistic final.

Malcolm Bamford recommended betting the Blue Jays team-total over rather than a traditional side or full-game total. He highlighted Davis Martin’s 4.62 road ERA and 1.40 WHIP, noting the right-hander has allowed at least one homer in five of his last six away starts. Toronto, meanwhile, is markedly better at Rogers Centre (OPS nearly 60 points higher at home) and doesn’t have to worry about Bowden Francis, who hit the IL with a shoulder impingement after surrendering 7.40 ERA in 14 starts. By stripping out the Jays’ uncertain pitching situation and focusing solely on their bats, Bamford believes a 4.5 or even 5-run team total is reachable against a pitcher giving up loud contact and struggling to miss bats (18.9 % K-rate on the road).

Bamford expects runs in Tropicana. Jack Flaherty is coming off a seven-earned-run drubbing by Cincinnati and now faces a red-hot Rays offense that just erased an 8-0 deficit versus Baltimore. On the other side, Shane Baz owns a 5.36 ERA in the dome and has struggled locating the fastball. With Tampa riding a month-long heater and Detroit’s lineup decent against right-handers, Bamford thinks bookmakers will hang an 8.0 or 8.5 and that’s not high enough – he’s playing the over.

Malcolm Bamford echoed Reichel’s angle, calling the first-five under his top pick. He praised deGrom’s continued brilliance (2.90 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) and pointed out that Burrows’ strikeout stuff keeps him competitive despite shorter outings. Offensively the clubs combine for just 6.8 runs per game and neither hits much above .230. With two struggling lineups and two in-form starters, he expects a low-scoring first half, projecting four runs or fewer before the bullpens enter.

Malcolm Bamford said he would play the full-game under in Friday’s Wrigley matinee. He trusts both starters, noting George Kirby has finally rounded into form with a 3.18 ERA in three June outings – all three finished below the total – while Matthew Boyd owns a 2.79 season ERA and an even better 2.25 mark in Chicago. Bamford added that Seattle’s offense has looked lifeless of late and that typical getaway-day bullpen shuffling plus potential Midwest wind should help keep runs down. He expects the number to open around 7.5 and wants the under anywhere seven or higher.

Malcolm Bamford went after a plus-money longball market, calling his shot on Xavier Edwards to hit a LEADOFF homer against Kyle Freeland. Bamford’s fade of Freeland is well-documented (0-8, 5.72 ERA, contact-heavy profile), and he reasoned that Edwards’ high-contact, line-drive approach can turn into cheap power at sea-level when Freeland inevitably misses arm-side. Bamford expects Edwards to see a first-pitch sinker and sit dead-red, making the leadoff HR prop a juicy sprinkle for bettors who want to maximize Colorado’s pitching woes.

Malcolm Bamford moved beyond his earlier first-five position and took Washington at +115 for the full game, trusting MacKenzie Gore to out-duel Matthew Boyd and spot the Nats’ unreliable bullpen a small cushion. Gore owns a 2.64 home ERA and is coming off back-to-back gems, while the Nationals closed last week with a mini-offensive surge that Bamford believes can continue against Boyd’s middling stuff (only one quality start all year). He admits Washington’s late-inning relief can implode but argues the plus-money compensates for that risk when the Nationals are likely leading through five.

Malcolm Bamford took the slight dog price on Philadelphia, trusting top prospect Mick Abel after his sensational debut—six scoreless frames and nine punch-outs against Pittsburgh. Bamford likes striking early with unknown arms before the league gathers film and believes Abel’s fastball/slider combo can survive Toronto’s offense for a second start. Jose Berrios is workable at Rogers Centre (numbers notably worse at home), and Bamford views the Phils as the better overall club. At -105, he’s willing to roll with the rookie.

Malcolm Bamford doubled down on the Yankees’ run line, zeroing in on Ortiz’s brutal road line—6.39 ERA and a 27/17 K-BB ratio away from Progressive Field. Ortiz is just 2-6 against the run line as an underdog. Schmidt owns a tidy 3.18 ERA at Yankee Stadium and posted a 3.14 mark in May, giving New York a decisive mound edge. Bamford acknowledged both pitchers trend over the total but trusts the Yankees’ offense and bullpen depth to clear the -1.5 spread.

Malcolm Bamford grabbed Washington first-five innings at plus money to avoid the Nats’ combustible bullpen. He trusts MacKenzie Gore’s 2.64 home ERA and back-to-back gems—including six scoreless in Seattle—far more than Matthew Boyd, whose lone quality start came against Colorado and carries scant predictive weight. With Chicago’s offense trending over the total, Bamford wants Gore on the mound while the game is still tight and believes Washington can be leading after five despite any late-inning shakiness.

Malcolm Bamford was "delighted" to see Houston sitting at -130 and immediately paired them with Miami in a two-teamer. He expected a sub--150 tag given Burrows’ 1.56 WHIP and identical four-earned-run disasters in his first two outings. Gusto will only need to cover three or four innings before Houston’s rested middle relievers take over, and Bamford notes every total trend pointed under—further evidence Burrows may not survive a second trip through a locked-in Astros order. He labeled Houston the card’s strongest straight bet and an automatic parlay leg.