Malcom Bamford targeted Masyn Winn’s anytime-homer market, noting that Nationals starter Jake Irvin has already served up 20 long balls, the fourth-highest total in the league. Bamford’s logic is simple: if Irvin is going to keep coughing up gophers, pick a Cardinal with emerging pop at a juicy price. Winn fits the mold—he owns a 42% hard-hit rate since June 1 and is barreling the ball at a top-three clip on the club over the past three weeks. With warm midsummer conditions in St. Louis and the Cardinals projected for a healthy 4.8 implied runs, Bamford thinks Winn’s HR prop (anywhere from +650 to +750 in early markets) is worth a sprinkle.

Malcom Bamford is done waiting on Atlanta’s offense and happily laid –112 with Oakland. The Braves have dropped three straight series and were just swept by Baltimore, managing two runs or fewer in six of their last eight. Didier Fuentes has not made it past the fourth inning in any of his recent starts, and Bamford notes the show has cashed multiple tickets fading him. By contrast, Jeffrey Springs has led Oakland to victories in three of his last four turns and owns a 3.18 ERA over that span. With the Athletics slugging well at home and Atlanta’s lineup still MIA, Bamford refused to back the Braves at any price and took Oakland to win outright.

Bamford echoed Lonte, admitting he expected a pick’em and was stunned to see Philadelphia at +130. While Robbie Ray’s 2.57 Oracle Park ERA is impressive, Bamford trusts the Phillies bullpen behind opener Taijuan Walker and likes that Philadelphia has gone under in 10 of its last 12 road games—an indicator their pitching is carrying the load. The Giants’ bats remain bottom-third in wRC+, and Bamford highlighted that their offense has produced only 3.7 runs per game in July. Given the modest edge he assigns to the bullpens and the power disparity favoring Philly, Bamford was “completely down to the price” and grabbed the plus money.

Bamford laid the short –120 with San Diego, citing Nick Pivetta’s (transcript lists him as the starter) spotless 6-0 home record and 2.55 Petco ERA. Merrill Kelly brings his usual steady 3.55/1.09 line, but the Diamondbacks have struggled when facing high-end arms, posting just a 4-10 record versus starters who carry sub-3.50 ERAs. San Diego has captured six of the last eight meetings with Arizona, and Bamford likes that matchup trend combined with the Padres’ 28-18 home mark. He called the game "a close one" but believes Petco Park plus the better bullpen tilts it San Diego’s way.

Malcom Bamford bet Texas –120 because he trusts Nathan Eovaldi to control a punch-less Angels lineup and does not believe Jose Soriano can match him. Bamford rattled off several data points: the Rangers have cashed the under in 64.4 % of their games, indicating consistently low-scoring, pitcher-driven wins; Eovaldi just spun five scoreless at Baltimore and owns a 2.79 road ERA; Soriano’s home ERA is an ugly 5.57, inflated by the eight earned he surrendered to Washington in his last Anaheim start. Texas leads the season series 3-0, is 13-8 as road favorites, and remains "quite reliable" when laying a short price. With the Angels struggling for offense, Bamford projected a 5-2 or 4-2 Rangers victory and labeled the –120 moneyline "absolutely fair."

Malcom Bamford advised taking Houston –1.5 at plus money against a Guardians club mired in a 10-game losing streak. Joey Cantillo will serve as a three-inning opener, but Cleveland has dropped seven of his last eight appearances and ranks bottom-five in runs allowed. Meanwhile Hunter Brown owns a 1.82 ERA and has limited opponents to three total earned runs over his last six home starts. Houston just hung 29 runs on the Dodgers and owns the second-fewest runs allowed in MLB (325), positioning them for a dominant win. With Cleveland averaging just 3.1 runs per game during the skid—and topping two runs only twice—the Astros’ run line felt like the ‘safer bet’ to Bamford than a Guardians team-total under.

Malcom Bamford skipped the full-game total and isolated St. Louis’ team total over instead. He highlighted that totals in Jake Irvin’s four most recent outings have reached 18, 24, 24 and 10 thanks largely to Washington’s starter being battered early. The Cardinals swept the Nats in May by a 20-3 margin and now get Irvin on the road, where he has yielded 4+ earned in three of his last four. While Bamford concedes St. Louis’ bats cooled on their nine-game trip, he expects a bounce-back in their first game back at hitter-friendly Busch. Washington is surrendering 2.5 runs per game offensively across their last ten, so Bamford prefers targeting the Redbirds’ offense rather than trusting the Nats to help an over. He projects 5-6 St. Louis runs and played the Cards’ team-total over at anything 4.5 or lower.

Malcom Bamford saw the Dodgers listed at –115 with Clayton Kershaw on the hill and did not overthink it. Los Angeles is averaging 1.3 runs per game above the posted total and has cashed the run line in 62 % of contests. Kershaw comes in fresh off his 3,000-strikeout milestone, while rookie Jacob Misiorowski is still finding his footing after being knocked around by the Mets last start. Bamford trusts the Dodgers’ elite offense against a Brewers bullpen that has slipped to a 4.32 ERA over the past ten. He also reminded listeners that Misiorowski opened at a juicy underdog price in his debut, then swung to an inflated favorite in his second start and immediately got tagged—evidence the market may still be overrating him. With the better lineup, superior pen and Hall-of-Fame arm, Bamford called –115 ‘a gift’ and backed LA to win outright.

Malcom Bamford went the other way, targeting Toronto at plus money on the run line. He acknowledged Chris Bassitt’s 6.38 road ERA but argued the game will be decided late, where the Jays boast a top-10 bullpen and Chicago owns a bottom-five unit. Toronto is averaging 4.8 runs per game over its last ten compared to Chicago’s 3.0, and George Springer’s rediscovered bat speed (three homers and a .412 OBP this week) gives them added thump. Bamford noted that four of Aaron Civale’s last five starts have turned into run-line losses for the Sox because the pen implodes after Civale departs. With the Blue Jays riding an eight-game heater and the White Sox bullpen posting a 5.24 xFIP despite a low ERA, he envisions a familiar script: 8-4 final with five Toronto runs from the seventh inning on.

Malcom Bamford laid the –142 and rode with Chicago on the money-line. He trusts Shota Imanaga’s massive edge over Simeon Woods Richardson after the Japanese lefty returned from the IL with back-to-back wins and a sparkling 0.88 WHIP. Bamford highlighted several trend angles: the Cubs are 12-4 against AL Central clubs, own a league-best +126 run differential, and have surrendered only two total runs in Imanaga’s four road starts. Minnesota, meanwhile, is just 4-11 straight-up versus southpaws and is batting .215 over its last ten. Woods Richardson has been serviceable, but his volatile pitch mix and middling 1.31 WHIP make him vulnerable to a Chicago lineup that has scored five-plus in six of its last eight. With the Twins’ offense sputtering and Imanaga carrying a 3.16 road ERA, Bamford called the price ‘skinny’ and expects the Cubbies to win outright.

Malcom Bamford doubled down on the low-scoring script, playing an alternate under 5.5 instead of the standard 8.5. He cited Lugo’s sparkling 2.65 ERA and a six-start streak of allowing no more than one earned run, plus Keller’s 3.16 road ERA despite a lackluster win–loss record. Pittsburgh’s offense has been shut out three straight, and Bamford noted the bizarre sequence of three shutout wins followed by three shutout losses—a sign the bats are ice-cold again. He also mentioned trade rumors linking Keller to the Mets, suggesting the right-hander is pitching for a contender’s attention. With both clubs trending under and neither lineup imposing, Bamford expects a 4-1 Royals victory and prefers the juicier price on the alt under.

Malcom Bamford kept it simple: play Boston on the run line or attack their team total because Kyle Freeland is hopeless in this park. Freeland’s 1-9 ledger and 5.49 ERA are backed by an alarming home-run/fly-ball rate that Bamford thinks will be magnified in cozy Fenway. The Rockies remain dead-last in wRC+ and slugging on the road, so Bamford is comfortable trusting Brayan Bello’s 3.60 Fenway ERA across 10 home starts. Boston, meanwhile, scores 6.18 runs per game at home and is fresh off a 27-run weekend versus Washington. With Colorado’s offense stuck in neutral and its bullpen offering no relief, Bamford expects the Sox to win comfortably and cash the –1.5.

Malcom Bamford called the Yankees short favorites a head-scratcher and grabbed Seattle at +107. The Mariners just recorded three straight shutouts for the first time in franchise history, while New York has cooled off badly and required an ace-level outing to steal a lone win over the weekend. Logan Gilbert owns a 3.40 ERA, a .198 opponent average and 74 strikeouts in 50.1 innings; Bamford likes his K prop against a whiff-heavy Yankee line-up. Will Warren was tagged for eight earned runs in his last start and the Yankee bullpen is taxed after a busy weekend. With Clark Schmidt lost to Tommy John surgery, morale and depth are issues. All arrows point to the Mariners as the value side.

Malcom Bamford said to keep it simple and bet the Mets team total (and money-line) because Brandon Young is a gas can. Young sits at 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA and has been rocked by right-handed hitters such as Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Clay Holmes, meanwhile, owns a 2.79 ERA on the road, so Bamford expects New York to play from in front. Baltimore’s bullpen has coughed up a 5.12 ERA in its last 10 games and the Orioles’ defensive metrics are bottom tier. Offense should be plentiful: eight of the Mets’ last nine have gone over the total and seven of the last eight Mets-Orioles match-ups at Camden Yards have as well. All of that led Bamford to fire on the Mets team total over.

Malcom Bamford’s long-ball dart landed on Adolis Garcia to take Tommy Yuki Sugano deep in Arlington. Bamford reminded listeners Sugano has been tagged for eight homers in his last four starts and carries a 46% hard-hit rate into steamy Globe Life Field, a recipe for flighted baseballs. Garcia owns a .288 ISO against right-handed fastballs and has already parked 10 of his 17 bombs at home. Bamford prefers the chalkier Garcia over Jonah Heim and projected any price north of +350 as playable.

Malcom Bamford named the Brewers his best bet, largely because he wants to fade starter Johnson, whom he called "not as advertised" after a string of ugly outings. Bamford noted Johnson’s recent line—double-digit ERA over his last two turns and consistently hard contact—looks even worse on video, with missed spots and diminished velocity. With Milwaukee’s lineup trending up and a rested bullpen behind them, Bamford expects the Brewers to exploit Johnson early, making the straight money-line play his lock of the night.

Bamford advised a "little ladder" on the Dodgers’ team total, starting at 6.5/7.0 and adding alternate overs. L.A. has scored 6.5 runs per game while winning Clayton Kershaw’s last five starts and averages 6.18 runs per game at Dodger Stadium overall. Spot starter Sean Burke owns a 5.82 road ERA and now hands the ball to MLB’s 29th-ranked bullpen by FIP. Bamford expects Kershaw to keep Chicago’s anemic lineup quiet, creating maximum plate appearances for a Dodgers offense that already posts 7.2 runs per game against sub-.500 clubs. He projected double-digit runs for L.A. if Burke exits early.

Malcom Bamford passed on the side and isolated the Arizona offense, playing the Diamondbacks team-total over (likely 4.5, willing to ladder higher). He called the Snakes "the only trustworthy unit in the game," pointing out they rank top-10 in every major offensive category and are scoring 4.91 runs per game at Chase Field. Landen Roupp owns a 4.56 ERA in 10 road starts and was torched by the Dodgers in his last real test away from Oracle Park. Merrill Kelly’s recent wobble kept Bamford from laying the full game price, but he expects Roupp to leak early and let a top-10 Arizona lineup cash five or more runs on its own.

Malcom Bamford bypassed the full-game line and singled out a Seattle team-total play (over 4.5 at even money). The Mariners post the league’s sixth-best wRC+ against left-handers and rarely chase, a bad recipe for Royals rookie southpaw Noah Cameron, whose 10.2% walk rate has inflated his pitch counts. Kansas City’s bullpen carries a 4.74 ERA since June 1st, so even a solid Cameron outing leaves dangerous innings for a fatigued relief corps. Bamford expects Seattle to reach five runs via patience and timely power, protecting bettors from Logan Gilbert’s recent volatility.

Malcom Bamford kept it simple: Astros –1.5. Hunter Brown has been lights-out, tossing seven scoreless with nine strikeouts against Philadelphia last week and logging a 1.71 ERA over his past five. On the flip side, Austin Gomber served up nine earned in his last Coors appearance and carries a 5.55 career ERA versus Houston. Bamford added that the Rockies are 11-23 on the run line as home underdogs and own MLB’s worst bullpen by WAR. He expects Brown to hand a multi-run lead to a top-10 Houston pen and called the run line "an easy, if boring, ticket."

Malcom Bamford laid –160 with Texas because he sees a clear pitching and bullpen gap. Tommy Yuki Sugano limped through a brutal June—3.4 HR/9, 5.61 FIP—but kept cashing thanks to unsustainable run support. Bamford expects that luck to run dry against Nathan Eovaldi, who shook off rust with a three-inning tune-up versus Seattle and should stretch to 85–90 pitches here. Texas’ relief corps ranks sixth in xFIP compared to Baltimore’s 19th, and the Rangers’ bats have finally woken up (121 wRC+ over the last week). Bamford priced Texas at –175 and is comfortable at the current number or a reduced run-line play.

Malcom Bamford advised taking the Cubs at –160 (or the run line if you want plus money) because the matchup tilts hard toward Chicago’s new ace, Shota Imanaga. The Japanese left-hander returned from the IL with five scoreless, one-hit innings and already owns a 1.25 ERA at Wrigley. Bamford hammered Cleveland’s season-long ineptitude against southpaws—28th in wRC+ and shut out in two of its last three games—while noting Tanner Bibee’s 4.96 road ERA and shaky 1.34 WHIP away from Progressive Field. With a rested bullpen and a lineup that crushes righties at home, Bamford made the Cubs closer to –180 and is fine laying the current tag or rolling the dice on –1.5 runs.

Malcom Bamford skipped the money line and went straight to a Boston team-total play (5+ runs). He pointed out Martinez re-entered the rotation only because of injuries and has produced a 1-5 record with a 1.48 WHIP as a starter. Cincinnati’s bullpen is running on fumes after covering nearly nine innings Tuesday and ranks 27th in FIP for the season. Boston averages 5.1 runs per game at Fenway and just hung 13 on the same staff. With muggy weather expected to boost carry, Bamford expects the middle of the order to feast again once Martinez is chased.

Malcom Bamford said bettors should grab the Mets at +110 in the nightcap even though Jacob Mizorowski has dominated (only three hits allowed through three starts). Bamford thinks the rookie is being priced like Corbin Burnes on the road and could regress the way Chase Burns did when Cincinnati tattooed him for seven runs Tuesday. Blade Tidwell is "very hittable," but New York’s pen is rested after Monday’s rainout, and Citi Field has played slightly pitcher-friendly this year. Bamford noted the Brewers bullpen has coughed up eight away leads, so if Tidwell can keep it close through five he expects the Mets lineup (99 wRC+ at home) to steal it late at an inflated number.

Malcom Bamford flipped the script and grabbed Pittsburgh +115. He expects regression from Sonny Gray after a 111-pitch complete-game shutout—historically a fade spot—with Gray carrying a 4.37 road ERA and allowing six earned at Milwaukee in his prior road start. Keller has posted four straight quality outings, including a seven-inning win over the Yankees, and his cutter/slider combo has held opponents to a .214 xBA in June. With the Pirates lineup finally healthy and playing at home, Bamford sees value in the underdog price.

Malcom Bamford advised backing the Rays -1.5 on Wednesday. He noted Ryan Pepiot has allowed just three earned runs across his last four Tropicana Field outings and left with a lead even in the wild 22-8 loss to Baltimore. Oakland is dragging a 17-19 run-line record as a road dog versus right-handed pitching, and Mitch Spence is still stretched out from bullpen duty, rarely clearing five innings. With Tampa swinging it well and the park trending toward overs, Bamford expects the Rays to jump Spence early and let a rested bullpen protect a multi-run cushion.

Malcom Bamford recommended Houston –1.5 on the run line at Colorado. The Astros have covered the run line in three of Colton Gordon’s last four outings, while the Rockies have dropped four straight Chase Dollander starts by an average of 4.5 runs. Dollander’s early-season flash has vanished, and a fatigued Colorado bullpen offers little relief. Houston’s bats have been humming—7-3 in their last 10 and consistently cashing team totals—whereas the Rockies own a league-worst 31-54 run-line record and an abysmal home mark. Bamford sees value even at –170 on the moneyline but prefers the plus-money run-line angle given the matchup at altitude and Houston’s bullpen edge.

Malcom Bamford took the Baltimore team-total under, expecting Jacob deGrom to dominate yet again. DeGrom is 8-2 with MLB’s second-best WHIP and has strung together 13 consecutive starts of two or fewer earned runs. On June 25 he carried a no-hitter into the 8th against these same Orioles. While Bamford acknowledged Charlie Morton’s resurgence—back-to-back strong months and improved swing-and-miss numbers—he believes the more actionable angle is simply betting that Baltimore fails to solve deGrom. He is comfortable fading the O’s lineup that mustered only one hit in that previous matchup and envisions a 3-1 or 3-0 Texas win cashing the team-total under with room to spare.

Malcom Bamford made Cubs first-five a ‘brick in the parlay wall’ against Cleveland. The Guardians are now 4-17-3 in first-five results when facing a left-handed starter and just 7-17 straight-up overall in those games. Chicago sends veteran southpaw Matthew Boyd, sporting a 2.41 ERA in June, while Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who still runs up pitch counts despite a solid 2.57 ERA this month. Bamford expects Boyd’s early efficiency to let Chicago jump ahead and is hoping to find a –150 price or better on the first-five line to slot into parlays.

Malcom Bamford is playing Cincinnati first-five moneyline at Fenway. Brady Singer has settled down with a 3.67 ERA across five June starts and has held opponents to two or fewer runs in four straight road outings. Dick Fitz’s two career Fenway efforts have been disasters: seven total innings, 10 hits, eight earned, five walks, three homers. Bamford respects Fitz’s upside but wants to fade him until he proves he can handle the Green Monster backdrop. Boston’s lineup has scored three or fewer in six of its last ten, while the Reds have been profitable as underdogs behind young arms. He projects Cincinnati to lead through five and is willing to lay a small price or take plus money depending on the book.

Malcom Bamford said the Mets are a buy at –130 against Milwaukee. He trusts Citi Field’s huge home-field edge (29-12 straight-up), notes the Brewers are merely .500 on the road, and points out Freddie Peralta’s 4.02 road ERA versus a sub-3.00 mark at home. Clay Holmes owns a steady 2.97 ERA overall with seven straight starts of three earned runs or fewer, and Bamford thinks the market is slightly shading Milwaukee because Peralta is the ‘bigger name.’ He expected New York to open closer to –120 and is comfortable backing them at the current tag, projecting the Mets as –140 favorites once you bake in the split differentials.

Bamford is fading the Paul Skenes tax again and taking St. Louis around +140. He noted that Pittsburgh swept the Mets over the weekend yet still struggles to score behind their rookie ace, as seen when they lost Skenes’ duel with Milwaukee despite Skenes allowing only soft contact. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 7-3 in their last 10 with a current three-game win streak, and starter Andre Pallante’s command has sharpened over his past few outings. Bamford’s macro angle is that the market continues to overprice the Pirates every time Skenes pitches; blindly backing the underdog in those spots has already produced a profit, and he expects that trend to continue here.

Bamford highlighted Cristopher Sanchez’s outs-recorded market as a value spot, recommending the over. Sanchez has cleared 18 outs in six of his last seven appearances thanks to elite efficiency: five consecutive quality starts, zero walks in his past three games, and no homers allowed in six of seven. The Padres’ offense owns a middling .702 OPS on the road and ranks bottom-10 in pitches per plate appearance, increasing the chance Sanchez works deep. Given Philadelphia’s bullpen workloads and Sanchez’s recent leash, Bamford expects Rob Thomson to ride the left-hander into at least the seventh inning again.

Malcom Bamford targeted Willson Contreras for a home-run prop on Tuesday, pointing to Jameson Taillon’s extreme long-ball issues. Taillon has already surrendered 18 homers in just 15 starts this season and owns markedly worse splits on the road, where his barrel rate jumps nearly two percentage points. Contreras slots into the cleanup spot and carries a .240 ISO versus right-handed pitching, making him the logical Cardinal to punish Taillon’s elevated four-seam that has produced a 47% fly-ball rate. Bamford expects St. Louis’ humid summer conditions to aid carry and believes any price of +400 or longer on a Contreras homer is worth a sprinkle.

Malcom Bamford is running it back with MIAMI MONEYLINE after successfully fading Justin Verlander last week. Quantrill’s predictable 5-IP, 2-ER baseline keeps the Marlins in games, and Miami is 7-7 in his starts despite being an underdog nearly every time. Verlander’s surface numbers look fine, but his strikeout rate (19%) is well below his 2022-23 levels and his four-seam velocity is down a tick since the layoff. Bamford projects another coin-flip matchup priced like a mismatch, and with Miami often +155 or higher he is content to "follow it off a cliff" until the books adjust.

With San Diego yet to announce a starter, Malcom Bamford focused on a PADRES TEAM TOTAL OVER against Trevor Williams. The Nationals righty owns a 6.63 ERA across 11 starts versus NL opponents and, despite allowing only two earned in three straight, carries a FIP north of five thanks to mediocre strikeout and hard-hit numbers. Bamford sees regression looming and trusts the Padres’ six-game win streak over Washington as confirmation they see Williams well. Even without a posted line he plans to attack any TT 4.5 or lower, expecting the Padres to chase Williams by the fifth.

Malcom Bamford doubled down on Boston’s offense, betting the RED SOX TEAM TOTAL OVER and nothing else. He described Tyler Anderson as simply "hittable," citing 4-6-3-5 earned-run lines his last four turns. Boston’s .273 average vs lefties and familiarity after already seeing Anderson once are key edges. Crochet’s back-to-back one-run outings should keep the game close early, but Bamford expects the offense to explode once Anderson’s command wavers. He flagged catcher Logan O’Hoppe as the only Angel in form but doesn’t think that is enough to offset Boston’s run production. Projection: Red Sox score 6+ by the seventh inning.

With German Marquez returning from Tommy John and Los Angeles still undecided on a starter, Malcom Bamford ignored the side and grabbed DODGERS TEAM TOTAL OVER (expecting 5.5 or 6). L.A. has averaged 6.1 runs per game at Coors Field across 2023-24 and faces a pitcher who is 9-5-1 to the OVER in Denver. Marquez has worked only two five-inning tune-ups since activation and historically owns a .320 opponent average and 1.37 HR/9 at altitude. Even if the Dodgers opt for a bullpen game, Bamford expects Dave Roberts to script two-inning stints that keep fresh bats in advantageous platoon spots all night. He called the matchup "one of those games where the line setters can’t hang a number high enough" and suggested layering full-game, first-five, and live team totals.

With the market still off the board, Malcom Bamford said he will look to bet St. Louis if oddsmakers hang anything close to a pick’em against Chicago. He expects Eric Fedde to get the ball and likes what he has seen— a 3.03 ERA in May followed by a 2.49 ERA in June. Fedde’s improved cutter/slider mix has produced a 24% strikeout rate since mid-May. Bamford is willing to fade Jameson Taillon’s 4.11 road ERA and recent five-run beating by Milwaukee, noting the Cubs are living off the long ball (11 homers in three games) but otherwise in an "average" form cycle. St. Louis owns a 24-15 home record and had a five-game win streak snapped Sunday, so Bamford believes the Cardinals are still undervalued in the market.

Malcom Bamford laid the ‑1.5 with Milwaukee, underscoring how dominant the Brewers have been while Freddy Peralta is on the hill at American Family Field. Milwaukee is 18-7 since May 25 (best record in baseball) and averaging seven runs per game over its last nine. Peralta’s home splits mirror his overall resurgence, and he faces a Pirates offense that is merely league-average and forced to support Andrew Heaney’s 4.85 road ERA. Bamford sees no path for Pittsburgh to keep up offensively and projected Milwaukee to win something like 6–2, making the run line the cleaner play than the prohibitive money line.

Malcom Bamford opted for an Arizona team-total OVER rather than a side because he believes Sean Burke’s surface numbers are masking red-flag underlying metrics. Bamford noted that most of Burke’s Statcast profile is bright red— hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected ERA— indicating looming regression. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game in June, second-best in MLB, and Miguel Vargas owns a .421 average with runners in scoring position since being recalled. Bamford also defended Ryne Nelson, arguing his bloated road ERA is the product of just two blow-ups; aside from those, Nelson has delivered quality work. He envisions a 6–4 or 7–5 type shootout that still allows Lonte’s White Sox first-five bet to cash while Arizona clears its team-total number.