Asked whether Colorado’s 4-24 start makes them a lock for the league’s cellar, Borchard said market value actually sits with the White Sox in the ‘worst regular-season record’ futures. His aggregated expected-runs model shows Chicago at −2.4 runs per game—nearly a full run worse than Colorado’s −1.5—despite only a three-win gap in the standings. Factor in a tougher remaining schedule and minimal farm help on the horizon, and he believes sportsbooks are underrating just how historically bad the South Siders project to be.

Borchard advised taking the Yankees at −145 with Carlos Rodon on the bump against Kyle Gibson. Rodon owns a 90% Stuff+ score and sits in the 96th percentile for strikeout rate, numbers Borchard trusts to neutralize a middling Cardinals lineup. He has New York’s pen graded fifth-best in baseball and the offense likewise fifth, giving them edges in every phase. Gibson’s 18% strikeout rate and 4.45 projected FIP make him a below-average matchup play in Borchard’s model, so he is comfortable eating the juice and expects the true line to be closer to −170.

Mark Borchard said the best way to attack Tuesday’s card is with a two-team money-line parlay that pays roughly +155. The first leg is Philadelphia behind Zack Wheeler, whom Borchard ranks as his No. 4 starter in MLB. He noted the Phillies offense grades out No. 2 in his model and that Citizens Bank Park has quietly turned into a fortress since league-wide humidor installation (Phils are 172-101 at home, +4.9% ROI, 2022-present). The second leg is Boston with Kutter Crawford, Borchard’s No. 5 rated arm, backed by the No. 4 offense in his numbers. He framed the ticket as a simple ‘Hall-of-Fame-caliber stuff plus top-five bats’ equation and believes the +155 return is mis-priced given both opponents are sending bottom-half starters to the mound.