At 150-to-1, Hayden Buckley is Matthews’ favorite flyer. Buckley’s career spikes almost exclusively come on par-70s: a top-5 at Sony, a top-5 at Colonial and even a T14 at the U.S. Open. Born in neighboring Tennessee and a Missouri alum, Buckley’s five-hour drive to Louisville gives him regional comfort. Matthews also cited Buckley’s penchant for popping in opposite-field events—7th at Myrtle Beach and a top finish at Barracuda—as proof he can outperform weak fields. With the driver back on song and the course demanding position over power, Matthews is betting outright, top-20 and sprinkling DFS shares.

Matthews pegged Will Gordon—born in Kentucky before moving to North Carolina—as his favorite mid-range outright. Now safely inside the PGA Tour top-125, Gordon can free-wheel, and Matthews thinks family in the gallery will only help. Gordon’s past par-70 highlights include a top-three at the Travelers, another short, strategic layout. Add in his solid driving and streaky putter, and Matthews believes the 40-to-1 range underrates a player who could thrive on a course that mirrors Colonial in length and demands.

Martin Matthews is back on Rico Hoey after Hoey lost this tournament in a playoff a year ago. Different course, same recipe: Hoey ranks near the top of the field in greens-in-regulation and driving accuracy, tools Matthews believes are vital for plotting around a short, tree-lined par-70. Hoey flashed form again last week, and Matthews trusts his iron consistency to create another birdie barrage. With odds in the mid-20s and eight-place each-way markets available, Matthews considers Hoey a must-have outright and DFS staple.

Martin Matthews said he simply cannot pass on Michael Thorbjornsen at 14–16-to-1 in this alternate-field ISCO Championship. Matthews noted that opposite-field events are routinely won by "quality youngsters"—he name-checked Viktor Hovland in Puerto Rico and Vincent Norrman in this same tournament two years ago—and believes Thorbjornsen is the next in that lineage. The Stanford amateur ranks top-tier in old-school greens-in-regulation and iron play, traits Matthews expects to shine on a 7,015-yard, tree-lined par-70 that demands plotting more than power. Thorbjornsen fired a low Sunday round last week and only a double on 17 kept him from a place finish, signaling form is there. With benign weather and a thin field, Matthews thinks sheer class will separate and is betting Thorbjornsen outright despite the compressed number.

Martin Matthews closed his card with a gut-feel flyer on Nicolas Echavarria at 200-1. The Colombian repeatedly spikes whenever a course sits on the ocean: a win in Puerto Rico, top-15s at the RSM, Sony and Mexico Open. Renaissance features five par-3s—more than a standard tour stop—and Echavarria leads the entire PGA Tour in Par-3 Scoring Average this season while ranking top-20 in SG:Putting. Matthews argued those two elite skills matter even more with minimal wind in the forecast, turning the event into a wedge-and-putt contest. Having already stared down Justin Thomas to win in Puerto Rico, Echavarria owns proven closing chops. Matthews is sprinkling outright, top-20 and first-round-leader bets, calling him the perfect long-odds coastal wildcard.

Martin Matthews flagged Scotsman Connor Syme as a sneaky each-way at 250-1 with 10 places. Syme earned his first DP World Tour win two starts ago and now tees it up on home turf where he finished T15 last year. The 29-year-old is not yet exempt for The Open, and three spots go to the highest non-qualified finishers this week, giving Syme enormous incentive. Matthews expects the Renaissance’s generous fairways and calm forecast to accentuate Syme’s accurate irons while minimizing his mediocre around-the-green play. Even if winning is a long shot, a Sunday ‘back-door’ top-10 would cash the place portion and potentially punch his Open ticket—exactly the upside Matthews wants in deep-odds outrights and DFS punt pool.

Martin Matthews added Max Greyserman to his card at triple-digit odds, noting the journeyman’s form surge: back-to-back runner-up finishes followed by another high finish last week. Whenever Greyserman posts a podium, he historically backs it up in his next start. Putting is his calling card, and Matthews believes these slower fescue greens accentuate that edge. Greyserman already owns an over-par-field T25 at last year’s Scottish and proved he travels well with a top-25 at the Zozo in Japan. Matthews sees 150-1 (with 10-place each-way) as mis-priced for a player gaining strokes on approach and ranking top-15 in SG:Putting over the last 24 rounds. In a likely birdie-fest, an elite putter on a heater is worth the gamble in outrights, top-20s, and low-cost DFS cores.

Martin Matthews said Maverick McNealy checks every Renaissance-Club box and should be on outright and DFS short lists. Matthews highlighted McNealy’s long-standing ‘water-in-sight’ success—wins or top-5s at Pebble Beach, Hilton Head, Torrey Pines and last year’s RSM Classic—plus the fact the Californian actually grew up with a house on Pebble, so coastal wind never bothers him. McNealy finished T15 in his only prior Scottish Open start and arrives fresh after skipping everything since the U.S. Open and Travelers. Matthews framed motivation as the key word this week: McNealy still lacks a 2024 victory and wants to crash the Ryder Cup conversation, making this tune-up a perfect stage. A neat-and-tidy iron game paired with a top-tier putter fits the forecasted benign conditions where birdies decide things. Matthews is betting the 60-1 outright and building DFS cores around him.

When asked about the 45-1 range, Martin Matthews passed on Sam Burns. He acknowledged Burns’ recent form surge and Ryder Cup buzz but emphasized that the Louisianan has yet to prove he can close overseas. Burns’ best Open finish featured a Saturday 65 followed by an implosive Sunday 80, and his résumé is still dominated by ‘Bermuda Burns’ results in the Southeast U.S. Matthews does not trust Burns’ short-game creativity or wind management at Renaissance and sees better value on Europeans with links track records. He is fading Burns in outrights and matchups, expecting the American to finish outside the top-20.

Martin Matthews grabbed Matt Fitzpatrick each-way at 40-1 (eight places) because the Englishman is running out of time to impress Luke Donald before Ryder Cup picks. Fitzpatrick owns strong course history at Renaissance and arrives with dialed-in ball-striking—his irons have gained in three straight starts. The normally reliable putter has lagged, but Matthews expects the slower fescue greens, which Fitz knows well, to act as a reset. With only the Scottish, Open, and perhaps Wyndham left to state his case, Matthews believes Fitzpatrick’s motivation is unmatched in this mid-tier range. Mild weather forecasts eliminate the heavy-wind variable Fitz dislikes on true links, further boosting his outlook.

Martin Matthews backed Collin Morikawa as his first outright because he sees multiple catalysts lining up. The two-time major winner has Billy Foster on the bag for this two-week Euro swing, and Matthews framed Foster’s experience as an immediate plus after Morikawa has shuffled through caddies all season. He cited the ‘new-caddie pop’ we have recently seen from Justin Thomas with Joe Greiner and Will Zalatoris at St. Jude. Morikawa’s iron play remains elite—he gained over five strokes on approach at both the U.S. Open and Detroit—but the putter has been ice-cold. Matthews thinks faster fescue greens combined with Morikawa’s constant putter tinkering could mask that weakness. He also likes the change of scenery; Morikawa has dealt with relentless U.S. media pressure and should enjoy looser vibes in Scotland. On a firm, second-shot track where accurate long irons rule, Matthews believes Morikawa’s profile plus Foster’s course-management chops make the Californian a live outright at 20-1 and a core DFS play.