Cameron pointed out several reasons to back Las Vegas at +3.5. Dallas is 0-2 ATS this year when laying points on the road and has not covered since Week 7. Meanwhile, the Raiders have quietly gone 3-1 ATS over their last four and enter Monday night on extended rest after playing the previous Thursday. Las Vegas’ defense is carrying the team, allowing only 5.1 yards per play (eighth best) and hovering around league average in EPA per play despite a sputtering offense. Dallas’ own defense ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed (0.129) and dead last in rushing success-rate allowed (40.3%), issues that persisted even before the recent Quinnen Williams trade. Given the Cowboys’ road scoring woes and the Raiders’ improving form at home, Cameron believes the spread overstates the gap between these clubs and expects a one-possession finish.

Mason Cameron recommended betting Dak Prescott OVER 23.5 completions at -120 for Monday night. Cameron noted that the Raiders run the NFL’s third-highest rate of zone coverage, and Prescott ranks second league-wide in passing efficiency versus zone looks. Las Vegas also deploys single-high shells at a top-eight clip, a coverage type against which Prescott owns a top-five PFF grade. The Raiders’ secondary has struggled all season, sitting 28th in PFF team coverage grade (46.2). With Dallas coming off a bye and looking to rebound from a three-week stretch that dropped them to 25th in EPA per dropback since Week 7, Cameron expects Mike McCarthy to lean on a quick, high-volume passing script that should push Prescott to 24-plus completions.

Mason Cameron spotlighted Saquon Barkley as a DFS hammer play, projecting another big rushing day. Barkley comes off his best outing of 2025—150 yards on just 14 carries and an 84.2 PFF rushing grade in Week 8—and now faces a Green Bay defense that just let Rico Dowdle rip them for 130 yards. Since Week 7, Philadelphia leads the league in offensive EPA per play, and Cameron expects the Eagles to lean on the ground game again after a Week-9 bye. Given the matchup and Barkley’s recent efficiency spike, Cameron anticipates a workload in the 18-22 carry range with a realistic shot at surpassing 100 rushing yards.

Mason Cameron recommended laying the short ‑1 with Green Bay. The Packers are 3-0 against the spread when favored by three points or fewer, compared to 1-5 ATS when laying six or more. Philadelphia has been the better cover team overall (62.5%), but this is the Eagles’ first game as an underdog all season and it comes on the road in Lambeau. Cameron believes Green Bay’s tendency to ‘play up’ to elite opponents plus the man-coverage advantage for Jordan Love tilts the matchup toward another Packers cover in a coin-flip spread.

Mason Cameron said Jordan Love is set up for a productive night and is worth targeting in overs and DFS lineups. Love owns the NFL’s third-best PFF passing grade against man coverage this season, while Philadelphia deploys man on the ninth-highest rate of any defense. Cameron noted that when the Packers face man looks, their explosive-pass rate jumps and Love’s EPA per dropback climbs nearly 20% compared to zone. With the Eagles installing their first underdog spread of 2025 and likely playing straight man, Cameron expects Love to outperform his season averages.

Mason Cameron advised betting the UNDER 31.5 receiving yards for Luke Musgrave at ‑118. Musgrave will be the Packers’ full-time tight end with Tucker Kraft lost for the season, but Cameron stressed that last week’s 34 yards came against a Carolina defense carrying a league-worst 29.1 PFF coverage grade versus tight ends. Philadelphia is the polar opposite: one of only two teams allowing negative EPA per play on TE targets (-0.061), an NFL-low 5.2 yards per coverage target, and a 64% completion rate to the position. With that matchup plus Green Bay’s tendency to funnel targets to wideouts against man coverage, Cameron expects Musgrave to struggle to crack 30 yards.

Mason Cameron recommended grabbing Indianapolis -3 before the number climbs, pointing to a bundle of data that screams early-season outlier. The Colts are the first team in league history to score on each of their first 10 drives and have yet to punt through two weeks under Shane Steichen’s turbo-charged, fourth-down-friendly script. Quarterback Daniel Jones is playing point guard to perfection, ranking 19th in average depth of target (8.5 yards) while keeping 53% of his throws short of the sticks, a ball-control profile that has produced points without turnovers. Tennessee’s defense looks like the perfect foil: bottom-10 in the share of snaps allowing positive EPA and fresh off a Week 2 performance that ranked 25th in EPA per play allowed to the Rams. With the Titans showing no pass-rush pulse and Indianapolis converting drives at a historic clip, Cameron believes the market will push this to at least -4 by kickoff and wants bettors in early at the key -3.

Mason Cameron played Garrett Wilson over 5.5 receptions at +105 on Fanatics. The Wilson–Justin Fields connection opened 2025 with 7 catches, 95 yards and a score against Pittsburgh, earning Wilson an 87.7 PFF receiving grade (second among WRs). Buffalo finished 30th in coverage grade against wideouts last season and allowed an open target on 61.1 % of throws in Week 1 versus Baltimore. With Buffalo’s secondary still springing leaks, Cameron expects another high-volume outing that beats the 5.5 line.

Mason Cameron recommended betting the under 34.5 receiving yards (+105) for Xavier Legette in Week 1. He reminded readers that Legette’s 2024 campaign was rough—a 59.1 PFF receiving grade (107th of 111 qualifiers) and a 76.5 percent catch rate on catchable balls underscored issues with drops, separation and finishing through contact. Carolina responded by drafting Tetairoa McMillan in Round 1 and bringing in Jimmy Horn Jr. and Hunter Renfrow, leaving Legette to fight for snaps and targets. Jacksonville’s secondary is no soft landing spot: free-agent signee Jourdan Lewis will handle the slot while Tyson Campbell, Montaric Brown and rookie Travis Hunter rotate outside if Coen allows. Given Legette’s shaky efficiency, reduced target share and a tougher defensive backfield, Cameron views the yardage under as the smart side.

Mason Cameron said the over 2.5 receptions at +120 for Calvin Austin III is one of his favorite Week 1 props. Cameron highlighted Austin’s torrid close to 2024—he generated a 142.8 passer rating when targeted (fifth-best in the league) and hauled in 80 percent of his contested looks—showing a well-rounded game that goes beyond pure speed. New Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers publicly praised Austin’s burst and toughness, a signal to Cameron that the veteran already trusts him. The real kicker is the matchup: Austin will run most of his routes from the slot against Jets nickel Michael Carter II, whose 47.9 PFF coverage grade ranked 68th of 72 qualifying slot corners last season. With a clear individual advantage and early chemistry with Rodgers, Cameron expects at least three catches, making the plus-money over attractive.