Matt Bowen bet Kelce OVER 43.5 receiving yards, noting he’s eclipsed 44 in eight of nine games. Bowen trusts Andy Reid to scheme early-down looks against Denver’s zone and expects Mahomes’ off-script magic to add chunk YAC opportunities. With the Broncos allowing middle-of-field targets at the seventh-highest clip, Bowen called this yardage line a weekly auto-bet until books adjust.

Matt Bowen wagered on Mahomes to log 5+ rushing attempts, laying –140. Denver’s 36.8% pressure rate (second-highest) forces quarterbacks off schedule; Mahomes has already hit five carries in five games this year, and Bowen notes that kneel-downs count. With Broncos edge heat and expected tight game flow, he sees the MVP candidate eclipsing the attempt threshold again.

Matt Bowen took Josh Allen OVER 219.5 passing yards. Allen has topped 270 in back-to-back outings and now faces a Buccaneers zone scheme surrendering 233.2 YPG (24th). Bowen expects Buffalo to attack the soft areas of Tampa’s three-deep looks, forecasting another 35-plus attempt day that blows past the discounted prop.

Matt Bowen took the Chargers’ team total OVER 23.5, citing Justin Herbert’s five-game run of 24-plus points and a Jacksonville defense surrendering 24.4 PPG and 252.9 passing yards. Bowen expects Herbert to pick apart the Jags’ zone-heavy looks, predicting a pass-centric script that pushes Los Angeles past four touchdowns for the sixth straight week.

Matt Bowen said the Browns catching +2.5 at MetLife is a spot to pounce on because Jim Schwartz’s unit is built to wreck what New York wants to do. He highlighted Cleveland’s league-leading pressure rate and willingness to play press on the perimeter, a combination he believes will both force turnovers and keep the overall score muted. Bowen expects the defense to hand the offense short fields, turning the game into a low-scoring slog that makes the 2.5 points feel like free money. He reminded readers that a similar formula cashed for him last week when he backed Indianapolis against Pittsburgh.

Matt Bowen backed Trey McBride to hit the Anytime TD market at Even odds. He pointed out that with Jacoby Brissett starting the past two weeks, Arizona has peppered McBride near the goal line – four end-zone targets and a touchdown in each game. Bowen expects the Cardinals to keep scheming for their athletic tight end inside the 10 because Dallas ranks 32nd in EPA allowed per play and has struggled to cover tight ends in short areas all season.

Matt Bowen advised laying the -5.5 with Tampa Bay, stressing that Todd Bowles’ front is top-10 in both blitz rate and overall pressure rate and should rattle Spencer Rattler, who just tossed three interceptions in a Week 7 loss to Chicago. Bowen said Baker Mayfield’s efficient play is a bonus, but the real edge is a Buccaneers defense that disguises post-snap looks and forces frantic pocket movement. He expects Tampa to create short fields, overwhelm a Saints offense still searching for rhythm, and ultimately cover on the road.

Matt Bowen advised laying the 3.5 with Cincinnati. He conceded that Joe Burrow threw for only 113 yards and the Chase-Higgins duo combined for just 59 yards in the narrow Week-1 win over Cleveland, but pointed out that Jacksonville’s perimeter coverages (split-safety and single-high zone) are exactly the looks Burrow has historically diced. Bowen expects Zac Taylor to script answers that get the star receivers loose and believes the Bengals’ defense is sound enough to keep Trevor Lawrence from trading punches. In his view, a cleaner offensive rhythm plus home field makes this a good buy-low number.

Matt Bowen urged managers to keep Alec Pierce on speed dial. Pierce led the league with 22.3 yards per catch and 21.6 air yards per target last year, posting three 21-plus-point fantasy outings despite only 37 receptions. He sits fourth on the target totem pole behind Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell, but Bowen argued any injury ahead of him would expand his route tree and give him weekly WR3 upside in Indianapolis’ vertical scheme.

Matt Bowen pushed Ray Davis as a top stash, pointing to last year’s Week 6 tape against the Jets where Davis racked up 152 total yards on 23 touches, including 55 receiving on three catches, good for 18.2 fantasy points. Six double-digit games while backing up James Cook showed what the downhill runner can do in Buffalo’s up-tempo scheme. Bowen noted Davis’ quick press at the line and north-south burst, projecting him as a plug-and-play RB2 the moment Cook—currently in a contract standoff—misses time.