Josephs dusted off an old strategy: when the Phillies take a multi-run lead and summon their bullpen, immediately jump on the opponent’s live moneyline or run line. He says the Philadelphia pen is once again hemorrhaging runs—naming Orion Kerkering, Joe Ross, Jose Ruiz, and Jordan Romano as unreliable late-inning options. The unit’s collapse rate has been so high that spotting the other side plus money after the sixth inning remains one of his favorite in-game angles. Until manager Rob Thomson finds dependable high-leverage arms, Josephs plans to keep pounding this live-bet approach.

Matt Josephs urged listeners to grab the Braves to win the NL East while they sit 6.5 games back. He argued Atlanta is still the division’s most complete roster: the rotation remains "very solid" even if Spencer Schwellenbach has under-performed, and the bullpen is as dependable as any in baseball. Ronald Acuna Jr. is expected to return later this summer, which would lengthen the lineup and ease pressure on several slumping regulars. Conversely, Josephs can’t trust the Phillies’ free-swinging offense in high-leverage spots and thinks New York’s hot start is unsustainable. His takeaway: if you believe Atlanta is the best team, this is likely the best price you will see all year—once the Braves close ground the odds will crash.

Josephs wants to fade Trevor Williams on Monday afternoon. Books opened the right-hander’s strikeout prop at 3.5, but his 17.9 percent K-rate and 9.1 percent swinging-strike rate make even that modest number untouchable. More importantly, the Mets are the road team, guaranteeing nine trips to the plate against a pitcher allowing a .277 average the third time through the order. With Griffin Canning stabilizing New York’s rotation, Josephs likes Mets full-game moneyline and their team-total over 4.5, expecting sustained traffic once Williams cycles through the lineup a second time.

Josephs said he will lay a short price with New York if Monday’s probable reads Tomoyuki Sugano versus Will Warren. Sugano has struck out only nine batters across five starts—just 1.8 per outing—and his pitch-to-contact approach has produced an 89 mph average exit velocity behind a shaky Orioles defense. Combine that with a bullpen taxed by Sunday’s doubleheader and he makes the Yankees roughly –120 despite their own rotation questions. Any plus-money tag on New York is an immediate play in Josephs’ eyes.

Josephs prefers Cleveland at roughly –110 with Gavin Williams hosting Bailey Ober. Williams has been electric at Progressive Field—one earned run and 15 strikeouts in 11.1 home innings—while his road ERA sits at 7.71. Ober’s elite command is offset by a 46 percent hard-hit rate, and outside of Jose Ramirez (6-for-19, HR) the Guardians are a combined 2-for-50 with 19 Ks lifetime against him. Josephs trusts Cleveland’s bullpen, anchored by Emmanuel Clase, far more than Minnesota’s shaky middle relief and would play Guardians full-game or first-five moneyline.

Josephs noted the Angels have flipped from a contact team to an all-out whiff fest, cashing the over on opposing pitcher K props in 13 of their last 14 games. The only miss was Pablo Lopez falling short of seven strikeouts on April 18. Since April 11 Los Angeles owns the league’s eighth-highest K-rate (25.7%). Josephs is locking in strikeout overs against the Angels whenever the posted number is 6.5 or lower, calling the run one of the hottest trends in the prop market.

Josephs flagged the Orioles as a dream target for left-handed pitcher K props. Baltimore is 8-1 to the over when facing southpaws this season and is averaging 7.9 strikeouts per contest in those games. He highlighted Andrew Abbott’s 11-punch-out performance in Camden Yards and Sunday’s cash on Tarik Skubal’s 6.5 line as proof the market remains behind. Until books start opening numbers closer to 7.5 or 8, Josephs plans to automatically take the over on any lefty’s strikeout line against Baltimore.

Matt Josephs said Monday’s Athletics–Rangers total sitting at 9.5 is too light and expects it to sail over. Both starters—J.P. Sears and Patrick Corbin—are facing the same lineup for the second time in six days, a spot Josephs believes heavily favors hitters. Sears is carrying a hard-hit rate north of 45 percent with just 6.9 K/9, while Corbin’s 1.50 WHIP and limited swing-and-miss stuff offer little resistance. Oakland’s lineup has quietly climbed into the top-10 in wRC+, yet its bullpen outside of Mason Miller owns a 5.72 ERA. Even though Texas enters as MLB’s best under team, Josephs projects double-digit runs thanks to the quick rematch and leaky relief corps on both sides, recommending a play on the over before it touches 10.

Matt Josephs said he wants no part of J.P. Sears on Monday, noting the left-hander just faced Texas on April 23 and offers little deception in a quick rematch. Sears’ underlying numbers have been ugly—hard-hit rate north of 45% and only 6.9 K/9—so Josephs expects the Rangers to square him up even though Texas has been the league’s best under team. With Patrick Corbin on the other side the full-game total opened 9.5, but Josephs prefers fading Sears directly: Rangers moneyline, first-five moneyline, or an Athletics team-total under. He considers any wager that isolates Sears’ downside to be the sharpest angle.