Matt LaMarca advised fading Patrick Corbin’s strikeout prop, backing the under 4.5 on PrizePicks. The FantasyLabs model projects Corbin to stay below the number 59.4% of the time with a 5.0% expected value edge. With the projection engine seeing limited strikeout upside, LaMarca labeled the under a reasonable way to play Corbin’s expected struggles on Monday’s slate.

Matt LaMarca’s top Astros call is taking Ronel Blanco under 5.5 strikeouts on PrizePicks. FantasyLabs simulations give the under a 59.8% win rate and a 5.4% edge, meaning the model expects Blanco to finish with five or fewer Ks more often than not. LaMarca framed it as a long-term, projection-based play that looks even better if the Tigers insert additional contact bats into the lineup.

Matt LaMarca recommended playing Dustin May for fewer than 5.5 strikeouts on PrizePicks. The FantasyLabs simulation set projects May well below the posted line, showing just a 39.6% chance he reaches six Ks. That translates to a 60.4% probability for the under and a 6.1% expected value edge, making it a plus-EV pick in their model. LaMarca noted the pick is projection-driven and should be monitored for weather or lineup changes, but at publication the data pointed firmly toward the under.