Matt LaMarca argued Travis Etienne’s $5,700 salary still bakes in a committee that may no longer exist after Jacksonville dealt away Tank Bigsby. Etienne claimed 57% of designed rushes in Week 1 and erupted for 143 yards on 16 totes versus Carolina. Rookie Bhayshul Tuten is the only meaningful competition, and LaMarca expects Etienne’s stranglehold to tighten if the efficiency continues. He grades as undervalued in SimLabs with significant ceiling for tournaments.

Matt LaMarca likes Javonte Williams as a contrarian pivot after his 15-carry, 2-TD showing against Philadelphia. With rookie Jaydon Blue inactive and only Miles Sanders behind him, Williams owns the Dallas red-zone job heading into a game where the Cowboys are six-point favorites over a Giants defense that just allowed two rushing scores to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. SimLabs rates Williams as notably undervalued relative to ownership at $5,800 on DK.

Matt LaMarca pointed out that J.K. Dobbins handled 62% of Denver’s carries and most short-yardage snaps while second-rounder R.J. Harvey saw only 23%. With the second-largest gap between projected ownership and optimal-lineup rate in SimLabs, Dobbins is flagged as one of the slate’s most undervalued tournament backs at $5,600, especially with Sean Payton historically slow to elevate first-year players.

Matt LaMarca acknowledged Miami’s dreadful opener but still tagged De'Von Achane as a high-variance GPP target, citing the back’s monster home/early-season splits: +5.18 DK Plus/Minus at Hard Rock Stadium and +15.15 in September/October. The Dolphins are slight favorites over New England, a defense that ranked 21st in rush-defense EPA and gave up the seventh-most PPR points to RBs in 2024. If the offense stabilizes back in Miami heat, Achane’s big-play profile could pay off tournament winning upside at $6,900.

Matt LaMarca highlighted Tony Pollard as the second-best FanDuel Plus/Minus among RBs at just $5,900. With Tyjae Spears on IR, Pollard played 89% of snaps and handled 86% of designed rushes in Week 1. Although Tennessee failed to score a TD versus Denver, LaMarca expects efficiency to rebound against a Rams defense that finished 20th in rush-defense EPA last season. Massive share of touches plus discounted salary equals slate-breaking ceiling if the Titans offense merely shows up.

Matt LaMarca labeled Kyren Williams a priority tournament play at $6,300 after he logged 81% of snaps and 18 of 19 backfield carries in Week 1 while running a route on 53% of dropbacks. With the Rams installed as 5.5-point favorites in Tennessee, Williams draws the game-script LaMarca says has driven his production: 19.74 DK points and a +4.93 Plus/Minus when favored. The Titans allowed the 20th-worst rush-defense EPA in 2024, giving Williams both secure volume and multi-TD upside at modest ownership.

Matt LaMarca advised sticking with Chase Brown in cash games at $6,800, stressing that no other Bengal logged a carry in Week 1 while Brown handled 21 rushes and maintained a 14% target share. Although he mustered only 43 rushing yards against Cleveland, Brown’s 85% snap rate down the 2024 stretch and continued bell-cow usage in what LaMarca calls an "elite Bengals offense" makes his current tag far too low for the touchdown chances that usually accompany Cincinnati drives.

Matt LaMarca called Jahmyr Gibbs nearly interchangeable with McCaffrey for Week 2 cash builds, pointing to a 36% targets-per-route rate and 10-catch opener despite David Montgomery controlling 52% of Week 1 carries. Chicago ranked 26th in rush-defense EPA last year and just surrendered 4.5 YPC plus 44 receiving yards and a score to Minnesota backs. Detroit is a six-point favorite and LaMarca highlighted Gibbs’ career splits in that spread band: 20.36 DK points and a +6.19 Plus/Minus when favored by 3.5-7.0 points. The matchup and projected game script keep his floor high and ceiling intact at $7,400.

Matt LaMarca said Christian McCaffrey is an automatic cash-game spend-up at $7,500 on DraftKings after logging 22 carries and a 34% targets-per-route rate (30% team target share) in Week 1 while playing 75% of snaps. Even at a pedestrian 3.1 YPC, that usage translated to 23.2 DK points without a touchdown. LaMarca noted McCaffrey has averaged 23.94 DK points and a +6.0 Plus/Minus the 15 previous times he has been priced in this range. With Brock Purdy out and Mac Jones starting, LaMarca expects San Francisco to funnel even more rushes and back-field dump-offs to McCaffrey as three-point road favorites in New Orleans, giving him both the top median and ceiling projection plus the No. 1 projected Plus/Minus in FantasyLabs models.

Matt LaMarca encouraged taking shots on Derrick Henry in large-field GPPs because his DK ownership lags other elite backs despite a league-best 169-yard, 2-TD opener. Baltimore is an 11.5-point favorite—the largest spread of the slate—creating Henry’s ideal game script. With FanDuel popularity likely siphoning some exposure, LaMarca views Henry’s combination of workload, red-zone equity and blowout potential as a leverage path at $8,200.

Matt LaMarca advised fading Patrick Corbin’s strikeout prop, backing the under 4.5 on PrizePicks. The FantasyLabs model projects Corbin to stay below the number 59.4% of the time with a 5.0% expected value edge. With the projection engine seeing limited strikeout upside, LaMarca labeled the under a reasonable way to play Corbin’s expected struggles on Monday’s slate.

Matt LaMarca’s top Astros call is taking Ronel Blanco under 5.5 strikeouts on PrizePicks. FantasyLabs simulations give the under a 59.8% win rate and a 5.4% edge, meaning the model expects Blanco to finish with five or fewer Ks more often than not. LaMarca framed it as a long-term, projection-based play that looks even better if the Tigers insert additional contact bats into the lineup.

Matt LaMarca recommended playing Dustin May for fewer than 5.5 strikeouts on PrizePicks. The FantasyLabs simulation set projects May well below the posted line, showing just a 39.6% chance he reaches six Ks. That translates to a 60.4% probability for the under and a 6.1% expected value edge, making it a plus-EV pick in their model. LaMarca noted the pick is projection-driven and should be monitored for weather or lineup changes, but at publication the data pointed firmly toward the under.