Matt Russell grabbed Tre Tucker anytime TD at +220. The trade of Jakobi Meyers pushed Tucker into a 100% snap share last week, and he has quietly caught 21 of 27 targets since his three-TD eruption in Week 3. The only thing missing is pay dirt. Russell expects the Cowboys’ "oft-confused" secondary to cooperate and trusts Geno Smith and Tucker’s chemistry to break the drought. With Las Vegas running heavy 12 personnel, Tucker will draw single coverage and one or two designed red-zone looks, making +220 a clear value.

Matt Russell took Jake Ferguson to score an anytime touchdown at +220. He views anything north of +200 as auto-bet territory given Ferguson’s usage. Before getting "dinged" in Week 8, the tight end posted six TDs across a four-game span and remains Dak Prescott’s favorite red-zone option. Coming off a bye, Ferguson’s bumps and bruises should be healed. Russell noted two end-zone drops on Monday Night Football two weeks ago and expects positive regression in a game with a 50-point total and plenty of red-zone opportunities.

Matt Russell hammered Brock Bowers OVER 6.5 receptions (-120). He dismissed the Broncos’ shutdown performance last week as an outlier, reminding readers that Denver owns the NFL’s top pass defense while Dallas certainly does not. Against a comparable but better Jaguars secondary in Week 9, Geno Smith targeted Bowers 13 times for 12 catches. Russell recalled Bowers’ rookie season streak of eight games with 7+ receptions and stresses that the Cowboys’ linebackers have struggled all season in coverage. With Las Vegas scheming heavy 12 personnel and likely chasing points in a 50-point total, Russell expects double-digit targets and another 7-plus catch night.

Matt Russell bet Ashton Jeanty OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-115). Dallas ranks 31st in opponent EPA per rush, the same unit that let two Arizona backs rack up 106 yards on 23 carries two weeks ago. Russell loves Jeanty’s first-round pedigree and "contact balance," noting he still logged 19 carries in Denver despite a negative game script. Because Russell expects the Raiders to keep this one close—or even play from ahead—the rookie should see fourth-quarter volume rarely baked into his prop line. He projects 17-20 carries and a clear path to 70+ yards.

Matt Russell played Dak Prescott’s longest completion UNDER 36.5 yards (-118). He reminded readers that the same prop cashed two weeks ago and the underlying numbers have barely budged: the "intimidating" duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens has produced just four receptions of 37+ yards in 14 combined games. Russell trusts Patrick Graham’s "sneaky-decent" Raiders pass defense, which has already kept vertical attacks like the Patriots, Bears and Colts from hitting explosive plays. With Dallas’ offensive line still shaky and Las Vegas content to force everything underneath, Russell sees little path for a bomb to beat the number.

Matt Russell backed the Raiders +3.5 on Monday Night Football, arguing that the market is still inflating Dallas the same way it traditionally overprices marquee franchises like the Lakers and Yankees. He noted that, with Dak Prescott fully priced in as an "average" quarterback, the Cowboys are only 3-5 ATS this season. The real issue is a Dallas defense ranking 30th in opponent EPA per dropback and 31st in opponent EPA per rush. By contrast, Las Vegas’ defense grades as "much better" and the offense finally gets Brock Bowers at full health in its preferred two-TE 12 personnel. Russell highlighted Geno Smith’s 284-yard, 4-TD performance against Jacksonville in Bowers’ last healthy game and expects similar success against the soft Cowboys secondary. He also pointed out that comparable visitors—Jaguars (-1.5) and Bears (+2.5)—closed at shorter numbers in Las Vegas, reinforcing that +3.5 is generous. Coming off a bye, Dallas’ new defensive additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson come from units ranked 23rd and 31st in dropback EPA, so he sees no quick fix. All told, Russell expects a one-score game and recommends grabbing the points with the Raiders.

Russell tossed a dart at KaVontae Turpin anytime TD at +425. Turpin racked up 17 touches and a score in Dallas’ first four games before an injury and now sees 20-30 snaps per week. His quick-hitting routes along the back of the end zone could spring free while Arizona’s corners focus on CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ferguson. At more than 4-to-1, Russell likes Turpin’s explosive profile against a defense vulnerable underneath.

In addition to the yardage over, Russell sprinkled Jake Ferguson anytime TD at +130. The Cardinals consistently leave the middle open, and Ferguson had six touchdowns before a minor injury slowed him last week, scoring in four straight games from Weeks 5-8. With Arizona conceding TE production all season, Russell views +130 as generous for a receiver Prescott clearly trusts near the paint.

Russell fired on Michael Wilson anytime TD at +260. The third-year wideout plays the same snap share as Marvin Harrison Jr. and trails him by just one red-zone target and one touchdown on the year. Seven of Wilson’s 15 catches have come in Jacoby Brissett’s two starts, and with Brissett unlikely to vulture goal-line runs the way Kyler Murray does, Wilson’s end-zone odds are better than the price implies.

Russell grabbed Zonovan "Bam" Knight to score an anytime touchdown at +115, pointing out that it’s rare to get a team’s primary running back at plus odds against a defense prone to pass-interference flags that spot the ball at the 1-yard line. With Arizona’s backfield ravaged by injuries, Knight projects for the goal-line carries and, at this price, only needs a single punch-in to pay off.

Russell bet Jake Ferguson over 39.5 receiving yards at ‑110. The Cardinals rank fourth-worst in both receptions and yards allowed to tight ends, a weakness that even fringe names like AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo exploited when Seattle visited in Week 4. Ferguson, who averages 41.8 yards per game, runs the same middle-of-the-field routes and should stay busy in a matchup that projects plenty of snaps and a 53.5-point total.

Russell took Dak Prescott under 37.5 yards for longest completion (-115). Arizona has surrendered just one reception longer than 37 yards all season, thanks in part to veteran safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson. While CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens look scary on paper, the pair owns only four explosive catches (40-plus) across 12 combined games. Jonathan Gannon’s familiarity with Prescott from his Eagles days and an extra week of prep coming out of the bye reinforce the play; Russell only fears a late defensive lapse similar to the Ridley or Smith-Njigba bombs Arizona allowed earlier in the year.

Matt Russell played Jacoby Brissett over 23.5 completions at ‑105. Since taking over, Brissett has logged 25 and 27 completions in shootouts with the Colts and Packers, and Arizona enters Week 10 still decimated at running back. With Dallas routinely picked apart on the back end and the game total sitting at 53.5, Russell expects another pass-heavy script. The only concern, he joked, is the Cardinals scoring too quickly on the porous Cowboys defense, but volume should remain intact as long as the scoreboard stays tight.

Matt Russell backed Arizona +3 on Monday night, arguing the market is over-penalizing the Cardinals for starting Jacoby Brissett. He noted the spread opened Cowboys ‑3, slipped to ‑2.5 when bettors hoped Kyler Murray might play, then snapped back to ‑3 once Murray was ruled out, implying a 6% swing in win probability that the data simply doesn’t support. Brissett’s small sample (64% completion rate, 7.4 YPA, 4-1 TD-INT) grades 14th at PFF, actually ahead of Murray’s 17th-ranked mark (6.0 YPA, 6-3 TD-INT). Arizona has lost five straight, but none by more than four points, and their defense ranks seventh in opponent EPA per play in neutral situations after turnover noise is filtered out. Meanwhile, Dallas still trades at an inflated rating that stems from a preseason win total of 7.5; the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable to any healthy offense. Russell framed the matchup as a coin flip and called the full three points on the underdog a clear buy.

Matt Russell backed Rashod Bateman at +220 or longer for an anytime TD. Bateman found the end zone nine times in eight of 17 regular-season games last year and scored in every playoff game, yet the market is focused on Zay Flowers’ hot start. Bateman still sits second among Ravens wideouts in snaps and targets, and Lamar Jackson consistently looks his way in the red zone. Russell believes Flowers’ Week 1 mismatch against Buffalo and Baltimore’s Week 2 blowout of Cleveland skewed perception, leaving Bateman undervalued at better than 2-to-1.

Matt Russell targeted Jameson Williams at +225 or better for an anytime touchdown. Williams scored in 50% of his regular-season appearances during his 1,000-yard breakout last year and even tacked on a short rushing TD. Russell highlighted Baltimore’s occasional secondary busts and Williams’ world-class speed, stressing that Ben Johnson’s playbook always reserves at least one designed shot for him. With the price implying just a 31% chance, Russell feels the betting market is well short of Williams’ true odds.

Matt Russell recommended Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD at +130 or better. The price implies a 45% hit rate, yet St. Brown scored in 11 of 18 games last year (61%) and opened 2025 with a three-TD eruption in Week 2 after an eight-game scoring streak to end 2024. In a contest with a 53.5 total and Detroit’s offense showing last season’s form, Russell believes St. Brown should be favored to find paydirt, making any plus-money number a buy.

Matt Russell took Over 285.5 combined passing and rushing yards for Lamar Jackson, dubbing it the “Lamar does stuff” prop. Jackson has already finished just shy of this mark twice in 2025 but ceded late-game snaps in comfortable wins. When pushed by opponents that can score—prime-time tilts against the Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers and 49ers over the past two seasons—he routinely tops 300 total yards. Facing a Detroit defense dotted with injury red letters in a matchup carrying a 53.5 total, Russell expects another full-tilt performance that clears the posted number.

Matt Russell played Jared Goff Under 34.5 pass attempts. With Ravens tackle Justin Madubuike sidelined, he expects Detroit to lean on Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, pairing an efficient ground game with deep-shot play-action. Russell called it a classic road script—burn clock, keep the crowd quiet and protect the quarterback—stating Goff will not approach 35 throws unless the Lions trail by multiple scores, a scenario his Lions +4.5 wager says is unlikely.

Matt Russell bet Under 13.5 receiving yards on rookie third-rounder Isaac TeSlaa. Through two games TeSlaa has logged just 20 offensive snaps (3 in Week 1, 17 in Week 2) and has been targeted twice, snaring both highlight-reel grabs that required replay confirmation. Books hung his longest-reception prop at 10.5 yet posted 13.5 for total yards, giving bettors a bonus three yards that almost certainly hinges on a single catch. Russell expects Monday’s game to stay competitive—unlike the fourth-quarter blowouts that created TeSlaa’s prior snaps—making it unlikely he sees even one target, let alone enough volume to clear the number.

Matt Russell grabbed Detroit +4.5, noting the line opened Ravens -6 before bettors chopped it down. He argued the market is fading last year’s 15-2 Lions for three reasons—both coordinators left, Green Bay’s Micah Parsons trade stole preseason hype and pure regression fear—but only the coaching turnover really matters and Week 2’s 38-point outburst versus Chicago showed the offense can still hum. Baltimore will be without disruptive DT Justin Madubuike, a huge blow against Detroit’s balanced attack, and its pass defense has repeatedly leaked explosive plays to top quarterbacks (see the Bills in Week 1). With a 53.5 total and the Ravens offense slightly less diverse minus Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard, Russell likened the matchup to last season’s Bengals-Ravens nail-biter that came down to a failed two-point try. Because Detroit merely needs to stay inside a field goal, he sees value in the +4.5 ticket.

Russell also fired a half-unit dart at Xavier Hutchinson to score at +600 or longer. Houston moved on from John Metchie III this offseason, and Hutchinson responded by playing the second-most receiver snaps on the team in Week 1, hauling in two passes—including a 23-yard grab—despite failing to score. With Tampa likely shading coverage toward Nico Collins, Russell believes Hutchinson will see plenty of single coverage in high-leverage spots. The third-year wideout has yet to find the end zone in his career, but Russell likes the combination of expanded route tree and long odds that imply only a 14% shot.

Russell played Nico Collins anytime touchdown at +135, arguing the price undervalues his history in Houston. Collins has reached the end zone in 13 of the Texans’ last 15 home games and has scored in exactly half of his appearances the past two seasons. That frequency translates to even-money fair odds, yet bettors are being offered + odds that imply just a 42.6% probability. After the Rams bracketed him in Week 1, Russell expects Stroud to feed Collins against a Buccaneers secondary that must respect Houston’s expanded receiver group.

Russell sprinkled a half-unit on Sterling Shepard to score at +500 or better. Shepard logged 64% of Week 1 snaps and drew six Mayfield targets while defenses devoted A.J. Terrell to Mike Evans and tested rookie Emeka Egbuka. Russell expects a similar coverage plan with Derek Stingley Jr. traveling on Evans and Houston’s corners keyed on Egbuka, leaving Shepard to slip through in condensed formations. With Tampa likely using bunch and pick routes near the goal line, Russell sees enough red-zone usage to justify + odds that imply barely a 16% chance of hitting pay dirt.

Russell bet Nick Chubb under 50.5 rushing yards at -110, framing it as a game-script fade. After two injury-plagued seasons, Chubb’s longest Week 1 carry was only 13 yards, evidence he still lacks his trademark burst. Russell expects Houston to lean on Stroud’s arm versus a secondary Mayfield lit up in 2023, limiting early-down rush attempts. He also cited Vita Vea anchoring Tampa’s interior, a matchup that held Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in check last week. Unless Houston builds a blowout big enough for fourth-quarter clock-killing, Russell doubts Chubb sees the volume required to threaten 51 yards.

Russell took Bucky Irving over 17.5 receiving yards at -115. Mayfield finally looked to his rookie back late in Week 1, when Irving turned four catches into a nine-yard TD and three other grabs that netted only ‑1 yards. Russell called that line misleading, pointing out Irving’s role on designed screens and check-downs should expand as Tampa tries to slow a Texans pass rush that posted the league’s second-best pressure grade. With Houston likely playing man and turning its back to the backfield, Russell projected 4–5 receptions and 20-plus yards for Irving, easily topping the posted number.

Russell played Mike Evans under 68.5 receiving yards at -115. He noted Evans drew fewer than 70 yards in 9 of 14 games last season and usually needed nine-plus targets to clear the mark. With Tampa’s reshuffled offensive line likely overwhelmed by Houston’s front, Baker Mayfield should struggle to hold the ball long enough for deep shots. Russell expects Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. to shadow Evans the way A.J. Terrell did in Week 1, further depressing volume. Given those matchup and protection concerns, Russell put the true probability of Evans staying below 69 yards higher than the implied 52.4% on the standard prop price.

Matt Russell backed the Texans to cover -2.5 on Monday night, pointing to a glaring mismatch up front. Pro Football Focus graded Houston’s defensive line second-best in Week 1, with Will Anderson winning 40% of his pass-rush snaps and Danielle Hunter at 30%. That group now attacks a Buccaneers line that slid its center to left tackle while waiting on Tristan Wirfs and allowed just one sack in Atlanta but produced only 137 passing yards before Emeka Egbuka’s late 31-yard score. Russell expects the ear-splitting atmosphere of Houston’s home opener and constant pressure to force shorter Tampa drives, giving C.J. Stroud more possessions against a Todd Bowles defense he diced for 470 yards as a rookie in 2023. He framed the wager as a bet on Houston’s defensive front dictating script and letting the Texans throw rather than grind, making the -2.5 worth laying.