Russell also fired a half-unit dart at Xavier Hutchinson to score at +600 or longer. Houston moved on from John Metchie III this offseason, and Hutchinson responded by playing the second-most receiver snaps on the team in Week 1, hauling in two passes—including a 23-yard grab—despite failing to score. With Tampa likely shading coverage toward Nico Collins, Russell believes Hutchinson will see plenty of single coverage in high-leverage spots. The third-year wideout has yet to find the end zone in his career, but Russell likes the combination of expanded route tree and long odds that imply only a 14% shot.

Russell played Nico Collins anytime touchdown at +135, arguing the price undervalues his history in Houston. Collins has reached the end zone in 13 of the Texans’ last 15 home games and has scored in exactly half of his appearances the past two seasons. That frequency translates to even-money fair odds, yet bettors are being offered + odds that imply just a 42.6% probability. After the Rams bracketed him in Week 1, Russell expects Stroud to feed Collins against a Buccaneers secondary that must respect Houston’s expanded receiver group.

Russell sprinkled a half-unit on Sterling Shepard to score at +500 or better. Shepard logged 64% of Week 1 snaps and drew six Mayfield targets while defenses devoted A.J. Terrell to Mike Evans and tested rookie Emeka Egbuka. Russell expects a similar coverage plan with Derek Stingley Jr. traveling on Evans and Houston’s corners keyed on Egbuka, leaving Shepard to slip through in condensed formations. With Tampa likely using bunch and pick routes near the goal line, Russell sees enough red-zone usage to justify + odds that imply barely a 16% chance of hitting pay dirt.

Russell bet Nick Chubb under 50.5 rushing yards at -110, framing it as a game-script fade. After two injury-plagued seasons, Chubb’s longest Week 1 carry was only 13 yards, evidence he still lacks his trademark burst. Russell expects Houston to lean on Stroud’s arm versus a secondary Mayfield lit up in 2023, limiting early-down rush attempts. He also cited Vita Vea anchoring Tampa’s interior, a matchup that held Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in check last week. Unless Houston builds a blowout big enough for fourth-quarter clock-killing, Russell doubts Chubb sees the volume required to threaten 51 yards.

Russell took Bucky Irving over 17.5 receiving yards at -115. Mayfield finally looked to his rookie back late in Week 1, when Irving turned four catches into a nine-yard TD and three other grabs that netted only ‑1 yards. Russell called that line misleading, pointing out Irving’s role on designed screens and check-downs should expand as Tampa tries to slow a Texans pass rush that posted the league’s second-best pressure grade. With Houston likely playing man and turning its back to the backfield, Russell projected 4–5 receptions and 20-plus yards for Irving, easily topping the posted number.

Russell played Mike Evans under 68.5 receiving yards at -115. He noted Evans drew fewer than 70 yards in 9 of 14 games last season and usually needed nine-plus targets to clear the mark. With Tampa’s reshuffled offensive line likely overwhelmed by Houston’s front, Baker Mayfield should struggle to hold the ball long enough for deep shots. Russell expects Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. to shadow Evans the way A.J. Terrell did in Week 1, further depressing volume. Given those matchup and protection concerns, Russell put the true probability of Evans staying below 69 yards higher than the implied 52.4% on the standard prop price.

Matt Russell backed the Texans to cover -2.5 on Monday night, pointing to a glaring mismatch up front. Pro Football Focus graded Houston’s defensive line second-best in Week 1, with Will Anderson winning 40% of his pass-rush snaps and Danielle Hunter at 30%. That group now attacks a Buccaneers line that slid its center to left tackle while waiting on Tristan Wirfs and allowed just one sack in Atlanta but produced only 137 passing yards before Emeka Egbuka’s late 31-yard score. Russell expects the ear-splitting atmosphere of Houston’s home opener and constant pressure to force shorter Tampa drives, giving C.J. Stroud more possessions against a Todd Bowles defense he diced for 470 yards as a rookie in 2023. He framed the wager as a bet on Houston’s defensive front dictating script and letting the Texans throw rather than grind, making the -2.5 worth laying.