Matthew Betz recommended betting the under on Saquon Barkley’s 1,525.5 rushing-yard season prop at ‑115 on Bet365 (1,500.5 at ‑110 on DraftKings). Betz noted that Barkley logged a massive 330-plus-touch workload during his 2024 Offensive Player of the Year campaign, and every running back (10 of 10) who reached that volume from 2020-2023 saw at least 45 fewer touches the following season; only two managed to suit up for all 17 games. Since 2010, Derrick Henry is the lone back to clear 1,500 rushing yards in back-to-back years. Given likely volume pullback, injury attrition over a 17-game slate, and the sheer rarity of repeating such production, Betz argued that “a lot has to go right” for Barkley to beat this number again, making the under the profitable side.

Matthew Betz acknowledged Justin Jefferson’s mild left hamstring strain but emphasized that the Vikings have six weeks until Week 1. Provided Jefferson avoids setbacks, Betz is leaving him atop his rankings and treating the injury as a mid-camp footnote rather than a reason to fade the consensus WR1.

Matthew Betz flagged Matthew Stafford’s current back soreness as meaningful given the quarterback’s long history of spinal issues— small fractures in 2018, eight missed games in 2019, chronic pain in 2021, and a spinal-cord contusion in 2022. Betz is not adjusting projections yet, but said if the 37-year-old is still sidelined two weeks from now he will lower outlooks for Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams. Fantasy drafters should monitor daily practice reports and be prepared to discount Rams pass-catchers if Stafford is not back in pads by mid-August.

Matthew Betz reminded drafters that Brandon Aiyuk’s knee reconstruction was an “ACL+” procedure involving meniscus and MCL damage in addition to the ACL tear. Betz expects San Francisco to place Aiyuk on the PUP list and then spend roughly a month ramping him up, making it unlikely he provides bankable production in September. Because of that timeline, Betz is sliding Aiyuk down his draft board behind healthier mid-tier wideouts who can contribute immediately.

Matthew Betz said he still views fifth-round pick Jaydon Blue as the best swing-for-upside play in the Cowboys backfield even after beat writers raved about Miles Sanders early in non-padded practices. Betz dismissed those talent grades as “shorts football,” noting what actually matters: Dallas declined to spend real money at the position, Sanders has been one of the league’s least-efficient runners since leaving Philadelphia, and Javonte Williams is returning from an ankle injury. With the depth chart wide-open and Blue carrying the cheapest ADP, Betz advised grabbing him now in the double-digit rounds before full-contact sessions potentially confirm his burst and send the price north.