Joe Mixon’s Underdog ADP has fallen almost 11 spots to 68.9 (RB20) after the Texans placed him on NFI with lingering foot and ankle issues expected to sideline him for multiple weeks. Freedman highlighted that Houston bolstered the backfield by signing Nick Chubb and drafting rookie Woody Marks, reducing Mixon’s margin for error. At 29 and already banged up, Mixon faces long odds to beat preseason expectations the moment he returns. Freedman believes the market’s pessimism is justified and recommends fading Mixon until there’s proof of health and a clear path to bell-cow usage.

Jonnu Smith’s Underdog ADP plummeted eight rounds to 177.9 (TE11 consensus 120.1) after the Dolphins shipped him to Pittsburgh and he immediately picked up a day-to-day injury. Freedman noted Smith finally flashed in 2024 with an 88-884-8 receiving line on 111 targets, but now lands with OC Arthur Smith—famous for suffocating tight-end routes—and will share targets with Pat Freiermuth and a run-centric offense. Even if his injury proves minor, Freedman doubts any tight end can thrive in Arthur Smith’s scheme and recommends letting another manager chase last year’s outlier production.

Jefferson slipped one full spot on Underdog despite already carrying a premium 3.8 ADP after suffering a mild hamstring strain in camp. Freedman reminded drafters that preseason soft-tissue injuries often linger, and Jefferson’s projection was already lighter than expected because rookie QB J.J. McCarthy has zero NFL pass attempts. Although Jefferson remains elite, Freedman has consistently bypassed him in drafts, preferring healthier first-round options with more stable quarterback situations. He advises approaching the superstar with added caution until he resumes full work and McCarthy proves functional.

Jared Goff slipped nearly 20 spots on ESPN, and Freedman understands why. New OC Ben Johnson left, All-Pro center Frank Ragnow retired, and the veteran QB offers little ground production. Goff’s 2024 career-best efficiency (72.4 % completion, 9.0 AY/A) came with ideal circumstances; Freedman expects a snap back toward his 2021-23 Lions averages (66.5 % completion, 7.5 AY/A). Although Goff still enjoys a top-tier skill cast—Gibbs, Montgomery, St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta—Freedman cautions that the structural changes cap upside and views him as a late QB2 rather than a priority pick.

Freedman flagged Emeka Egbuka as one of his must-draft players after a modest Yahoo bump still left him at 127.1 overall (WR51) while his Underdog price sits a full 47 picks higher. The rookie first-rounder posted an 81-1,011-10 receiving line and ran a 4.42 forty, giving him the athletic profile to step into immediate volume. With Mike Evans approaching age 32 and Chris Godwin rehabbing from a second ankle surgery that landed him on PUP, Egbuka could open the season as the Buccaneers’ WR2 at worst. Freedman believes the market is underestimating both Egbuka’s talent and the fragility of Tampa Bay’s veteran depth chart, making him a screaming value in the double-digit rounds.

Omarion Hampton’s ADP rocketed to 34.8 on Underdog (RB17 overall) after Najee Harris landed on the NFI list with a fireworks-related eye injury and even Jim Harbaugh admitted he wasn’t sure when the veteran would return. Freedman conceded he still expects Harris to suit up Week 1 and handle early-down plod work, but emphasized that Hampton—a first-round rookie who graded out well in Dwain McFarland’s RB Rookie Super Model—owns the backfield’s real ceiling. With the possibility Harris lingers at less than 100 %, Freedman likes scooping Hampton in the 4th-5th round range for big-play and pass-game juice that best fits OC Greg Roman’s power-run scheme when healthy.

Freedman argued that Christian McCaffrey’s ADP jump to 10.5 overall (RB5) still isn’t steep enough. With Deebo Samuel gone, Brandon Aiyuk on PUP, rookie Ricky Pearsall unproven, and Jauan Jennings nursing a calf, he expects the 49ers offense to funnel through a fully healthy McCaffrey. He reminded readers that—even without a full camp in 2024—McCaffrey racked up 281 rushing yards on 43 carries plus 16 targets in his first three games while posting an 88 Utilization Score. McCaffrey sits as RB1 in Freedman’s projections and RB3 in his rankings, so he views the perennial workhorse as a bargain whenever he slides past the first half-dozen picks.

Matthew Freedman pointed out that Bo Nix has climbed to a consensus ADP of 85.8 (QB8) after Sleeper drafters nudged him up 5.1 slots, largely because the NFL Top-100 list slotted him at No. 64. Freedman is fading the buzz, keeping Nix on his personal Do-Not-Draft list while ranking him QB10 in both his season-long projections and 2025 redraft ranks. He acknowledged Nix’s solid rookie résumé—66.3 % completion rate, 6.7 AY/A, 92-430-4 rushing line, 10 wins, and a playoff berth—but argued that the ceiling isn’t meaningfully higher than later quarterbacks. In short, Freedman thinks drafters are paying for name recognition rather than outsized upside and suggests passing on Nix at his new price.

Matthew Freedman admitted he is boosting Travis Hunter in his rankings after watching the rookie’s average draft position slide to the WR30 range. Freedman had faded Hunter when drafters were taking him inside the top-20 receivers, but Raybon’s argument—that Jacksonville will prioritize Hunter on offense and only sprinkle him in on defense—convinced him the upside now outweighs the risk. Freedman noted several catalysts: Liam Coen’s scheme that turbocharges under-2.5-second throws, yards-after-catch numbers, and red-zone efficiency; the departures of Gabe Davis and Evan Ingram that free up 180-plus targets; and the possibility Trevor Lawrence explodes under Coen, raising the entire passing pie. Even if Hunter runs only a 70-75% route rate, Freedman expects the Jaguars to script plays specifically for him, keeping his targets per route in WR1 territory. The combination of manufactured touches, elite athleticism, and a falling ADP makes Hunter a value pick in both season-long and best-ball drafts.

Matthew Freedman pegged Jameson Williams as a 2025 breakout candidate who could detonate if Detroit nudges his usage even slightly. Williams turned just 91 targets and 11 carries into over 1,000 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns last year, thanks to career marks of 9.8 yards per target and 8.7 yards per carry. Freedman believes the former first-rounder has evolved from a pure speed merchant into a complete route runner who can line up anywhere in the formation. If injuries to Sam LaPorta or Jameer Gibbs, or simple play-calling shifts, push Williams to 120 targets, Freedman sees a 1,200- to 1,400-yard season in range. The bonus rushing attempts function like “free fantasy points,” raising his weekly ceiling. With drafters anchoring to last year’s modest volume, Freedman is happy to select Williams ahead of ADP, betting on a talent-plus-efficiency profile that could explode with only a 25–30% bump in opportunities.

Matthew Freedman argued that Matthew Golden is set up for a rookie-year breakout because he can play anywhere on the field, not just the slot. Freedman noted that Jaden Reed has been almost exclusively a slot receiver, which bumps him to the sideline whenever Matt LaFleur rolls out his frequent two-tight-end packages. Golden, however, can win on the perimeter and in the slot, keeping him on the field in both 11- and 12-personnel. The Packers confirmed that vision by spending a first-round pick on him—something they did not do for Reed or Romeo Doubs. Freedman added that Jordan Love quietly finished top-five in QBR and yards per attempt despite last year’s run-leaning script, and LaFleur ranks as a top-eight (arguably top-four) play-caller. If Green Bay is forced to throw a bit more, Freedman thinks every target earner in the offense explodes, but Golden is the only one with both locked-in snaps and a WR50-plus ADP. He called that combination “buying a ceiling at its floor” in season-long and best-ball drafts.

Matthew Freedman identified Emeka Egbuka as a screaming value because drafters are overrating the difficulty of cracking Tampa Bay’s target tree. Egbuka ran a 4.42 forty and posted elite college production at Ohio State yet is going outside the WR3 range in most drafts. Freedman acknowledged the potential negatives – a fourth play-caller in four seasons and early-camp competition with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan – but argued those concerns are already more than priced in. Evans is 32 and due for a decline, Godwin’s Week 1 availability is in doubt, and the offense remained top-10 in passing EPA with Baker Mayfield last year. Freedman sees multiple outs for Egbuka: immediate Godwin replacement, injury fill-in for Evans, or simply winning the No. 2 job by talent. Any of those scenarios would give a first-round athlete attached to a productive quarterback a path to a rookie-year breakout that dwarfs his current ADP.

Matthew Freedman added a dynasty hammer on Colston Loveland, pointing out that 21-year-old rookie tight ends are an almost unbroken pipeline to stardom. Every player who has entered the league at that age with Loveland’s combination of draft capital and college production has eventually become a difference-maker, many on Hall-of-Fame trajectories. Freedman argued that even if Loveland’s year-one role is merely solid, the age curve plus Ben Johnson’s tight-end-friendly scheme make him a long-term smash. He urged fantasy managers to get out in front of what could be a meteoric rise rather than paying a premium once the breakout is obvious.

Matthew Freedman called Marvin Mims his favorite dart throw in the back half of drafts, arguing the second-year wideout has a clear path to become Denver’s No. 1 receiver. Freedman laid out several pillars for the bet: (1) elite special-teams pedigree – Mims was a first-team All-Pro returner, a profile that has foreshadowed breakouts for Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill and Wes Welker; (2) an aging, soon-to-be-30 Cortland Sutton who could decline at any moment; (3) an otherwise underwhelming depth chart of Devon Vele, Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin and Trent Sherfield; (4) strong underlying efficiency (10.4 career yards per target) plus 22 NFL carries that hint at Sean Payton’s willingness to manufacture touches in a Joker role; and (5) Payton’s history of coaxing big seasons out of previously unheralded No. 2 wideouts in New Orleans. Freedman believes those factors combine to give Mims genuine WR1-in-Denver upside while his ADP still sits in the double-digit rounds, making him a mandatory exposure in season-long and best-ball formats.

Matthew Freedman said J.J. McCarthy is his favorite late-round breakout quarterback. Freedman trusts Kevin O'Connell after the coach coaxed career-best production out of Kirk Cousins and even made Sam Darnold look "MVP-adjacent" last season. McCarthy walks into an ideal ecosystem that features Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones plus a top-10 offensive line. Freedman cited McCarthy’s 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt, 72.3% completion rate at Michigan and a 6.82 three-cone time that confirms real scrambling ability. The rookie effectively had a red-shirt year while rehabbing his knee, giving him time to master the playbook. Freedman believes McCarthy’s ceiling rivals quarterbacks going two-to-five rounds earlier, making him a must-draft value in best-ball and redraft formats.

Matthew Freedman recommended fading T.J. Hockenson at TE5 (early Round 6). His projection gives Hockenson just 99 targets, 686 yards and 2.6 touchdowns – numbers that not only trail David Njoku by 45 fantasy points but also suggest a capped ceiling inside Minnesota’s evolving offense. Freedman sees no path for Hockenson to match Njoku’s projected workload and believes paying a two-round premium for the Viking tight end is a mistake when Njoku’s target upside is materially higher.

Freedman touted David Njoku as the tight-end arbitrage winner of 2025. With Cleveland thin behind Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy, he projects Njoku for 113 targets, 80 catches, 792 yards and 7.5 TDs – a 164.4-point haul that dwarfs T.J. Hockenson’s 118.7 projection – yet Njoku can be had at TE10 (end of Round 8). Freedman highlighted Njoku’s 95 Utilization Score during his six-game run with Joe Flacco (37-483-4 on 56 looks) and noted the tight end has piled up 167 targets in 18 games without Deshaun Watson over the last two seasons. The combination of a possible No. 2 receiving role and an affordable ADP makes Njoku his favorite mid-round upside swing.

Matthew Freedman argued that Tee Higgins is over-drafted at WR14 (late Round 2). Despite sharing virtually identical 2025 projections with DeVonta Smith, Higgins’ cost bakes in no discount for his lengthy injury résumé – 13 missed games over the past four seasons. Because he still plays second fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase in target priority, Freedman believes the Bengals’ wideout lacks the weekly ceiling necessary to justify a premium pick when a cheaper, healthier clone (Smith) exists two rounds later.

Freedman called DeVonta Smith the clear arbitrage play over Tee Higgins. His projections have Smith at 114 targets, 1,066 yards and virtually the same fantasy points as Higgins (115 targets, 1,057 yards), yet Smith is available at WR26 near the Round 4/5 turn while Higgins costs a late-Round 2 pick. The Eagle wideout has also proven more durable, missing only three games in four seasons compared to Higgins’ 13 absences. Given identical production expectations inside an elite offense and a two-round discount, Freedman advised loading up on Smith wherever possible.

Matthew Freedman placed Breece Hall on his do-not-draft list even though the Jets back is going RB12. He warned Hall could surrender early-down snaps to rookie power back Braelon Allen and, more importantly, lose reception volume because new quarterback Justin Fields historically tucks and runs instead of checking the ball down. Freedman’s projection assigns Hall just 203.4 PPR points, a full round behind cheaper backs such as Alvin Kamara, making Hall a Round 3 land mine in his eyes.

Matthew Freedman said Alvin Kamara is an arbitrage smash for drafters who start Zero-RB builds. Kamara is coming off a league-best 93 Utilization Score and projects for 219.7 PPR points in Freedman’s 2025 model – 16.3 points more than Breece Hall – yet Kamara is sitting at RB18 (Round 5) instead of RB12. Freedman expects Kellen Moore’s pass-heavy West Coast scheme to feed Kamara ample check-downs and keep him on the field for three downs. Because the workload, pass-catching chops and projection all outstrip his draft cost, Freedman urged managers to scoop Kamara any time he slips into the fifth round.