Jones climbed from QB34 to QB28 once Shane Steichen confirmed him as the Colts’ Week 1 starter. Freedman admits Jones’ 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt the past two seasons is ugly, yet the mere fact he is not the erratic Anthony Richardson stabilizes the passing game and elevates Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and rookie TE Tyler Warren. Expecting 4–6 weeks of job security, plus sneaky rushing equity, Freedman labels Jones a viable superflex or early-season streaming option before the inevitable Richardson takeover.

Freedman’s biggest tight-end jump was Tyler Warren to TE10 after the Colts named Daniel Jones, not Anthony Richardson, their Week 1 starter. Jones’ middling arm is still an upgrade in short-to-intermediate accuracy for the first-round rookie, who has reportedly been Jones’ most reliable red-zone option in joint practices. With a shallow target tree behind Michael Pittman, Freedman now views Warren as a late-round stab who could finish as a low-end TE1.

Dropping Garrett Wilson from WR19 to WR22, Freedman cited discouraging camp reports about OC Tanner Engstrand’s attack and subpar preseason chemistry with Justin Fields. A projected bottom-five pace and heavy rushing lean could leave Wilson volume-starved relative to his third-round ADP. Freedman recommends letting someone else pay full freight unless the Jets show tangible offensive competence before draft season ends.

Freedman edged Hollywood Brown up to WR50 after news that Rashee Rice faces a likely suspension. While KC hopes second-year burner Xavier Worthy steps up, the veteran Brown is the most proven field-stretcher on the roster. In Patrick Mahomes’ offense even a 20% target share could push Brown into weekly WR3 territory, making him a savvy mid-round pick for managers seeking early-season spike weeks.

Brian Robinson free-fell from RB29 to RB38 after being shipped to San Francisco. Freedman notes the 49ers acquired him largely for cost control after contract escalators hit in Washington, and he still has to win the No. 2 job from Isaac Guerendo. With Christian McCaffrey monopolizing high-value touches, Robinson’s path to fantasy relevance now hinges on an injury or another relocation, scenarios Freedman is unwilling to pay for in drafts.

Freedman nudged Breece Hall down to RB19 and placed him on his personal do-not-draft list. With Justin Fields at quarterback the Jets project as a slow, run-heavy but inefficient unit. Fields’ scramble tendency siphons check-downs and goal-line carries, while emerging power back Braelon Allen is expected to steal early-down work. Those overlap concerns led Freedman to warn drafters that Hall’s 2025 ceiling is capped and his floor far shakier than his mid-second-round ADP implies.

Freedman rocketed Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt from RB62 to RB36 after the seventh-round pick parlayed a 1,368-yard, 19-TD final college campaign into an eye-opening camp (18-70-1 rushing, 3-8 receiving). Washington is searching for a between-the-tackles option and Freedman believes Croskey-Merritt has shown enough to start Week 1. That potential three-down opportunity at a bargain ADP makes him a priority late-round target in redraft and best-ball leagues.

Freedman vaulted TreVeyon Henderson to RB18 (up from RB24) after the second-rounder flashed electricity all August: 5-38-1 on the ground, 3-12 receiving, plus a 100-yard kick-return TD. While veteran Rhamondre Stevenson still projects for significant snaps, Henderson’s open-field burst has Freedman forecasting an Alvin Kamara 2017 / De'Von Achane 2023 style efficiency splash even in a part-time role. The analyst now targets Henderson in the middle rounds of season-long drafts as a high-upside flex who could become a weekly RB2 if Stevenson misses time.

Matthew Freedman bumped Chase Brown from RB10 to RB8 after studying both last year’s split-sample production and this summer’s usage. In eight 2024 games without Zack Moss, Brown ripped off 930 rushing yards, 6 TDs, and posted a position-best 95 Utilization Score on 151 carries and 44 targets. Pre-season snaps have shown the Bengals treating him like a true every-down back, reinforcing the expectation that he will open 2025 as a volume hog. Freedman sees Brown’s combination of backfield monopoly and passing-game involvement as worth a back-end RB1 draft slot in all season-long formats.

In his latest rankings update, Matthew Freedman urged managers to "chase down" Jacory Croskey-Merritt even as the running back’s ADP rises. Freedman argued the market has not fully priced in the volume that opened when Brian Robinson was shipped to San Francisco, pointing out that Washington now has 244 vacated carries from 2024 and no other runner on the roster with more than 75 career NFL attempts. He expects Croskey-Merritt’s ADP to continue climbing over the next two peak draft weekends and recommended pulling the trigger one full round ahead of published consensus to lock in a potential three-down back attached to an offense that finished ninth in red-zone rush rate last season.

Despite the numerical drop to WR43, Freedman views Emeka Egbuka as a prime late-round steal. Tampa’s WR room is battered: 32-year-old Mike Evans is aging, Chris Godwin (ankle/foot) and Jalen McMillan (neck) are hurt, and Egbuka has run almost exclusively with the starters in camp. Freedman highlighted him as a “first-team playmaker” whose depressed ADP is perfect for Guillotine and season-long leagues where cheap early-season volume is gold.

Matthew Freedman recommended selling Darren Waller at his 207.8 FFPC ADP. The veteran tight end is still on the active/PUP list after a year away from football and Mike McDaniel will not commit to him practicing ahead of Week 1. Freedman noted that even TE-premium sharps are abandoning the once-elite option, a red flag he refuses to ignore.

Matthew Freedman told gamers to buy Matthew Stafford at 182.4 FFPC ADP. Reporters panicked when Stafford missed another week of practice with a back issue, only for the veteran to return days later. Freedman joked the injury means Stafford is in midseason form and believes his arm talent remains a perfect late-round quarterback target when healthy.

Matthew Freedman advised holding Najee Harris after fireworks-related eye issues dropped his CBS ADP to 97.4. Harris returned to practice last week and OC Greg Roman historically feeds downhill runners. Having never fallen below 1,200 scrimmage yards in four seasons, Harris remains a sturdy flex with contingent upside behind rookie Omarion Hampton.

Matthew Freedman suggested holding Chris Olave at his 119.7 CBS ADP. While a concussion cost him half of last season and the Saints still lack a proven passer, back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns confirm Olave’s talent. Freedman wants to see if quarterback play stabilizes before making a move.

Matthew Freedman told readers to buy Rashee Rice despite a looming disciplinary hearing that pushed his Yahoo ADP down to 63.5. Freedman argues that even if Rice misses games in October, he is still Patrick Mahomes’ top wideout the rest of the year and profiles as a difference-maker when available.

Matthew Freedman advised selling Chris Godwin after his Yahoo ADP fell 7.6 spots to 96.6. Godwin is still recovering from last year’s ankle dislocation and looks unlikely for Week 1, while first-round pick Emeka Egbuka is stealing headlines in camp. Freedman prefers to avoid a potentially prolonged ramp-up.

Matthew Freedman labeled Rhamondre Stevenson a buy after a minor 4.2-spot Sleeper ADP dip to 110.4. Although TreVeyon Henderson flashed in preseason and Stevenson missed practice with an undisclosed issue, Freedman still expects Stevenson to headline the backfield and called him a prime Zero-RB target.

Matthew Freedman said to sell Tyler Shough after the rookie lost ground in an open quarterback competition and watched his Sleeper ADP drop to 275.6. Even second-round draft capital can’t salvage a passer trending toward the bench.

Matthew Freedman recommended selling Jerome Ford after his ESPN ADP tumbled 22.9 slots to 159.3. Cleveland appears close to signing Quinshon Judkins, which would relegate Ford to nothing more than an injury hedge.

Matthew Freedman said to hold Joe Mixon after a steep 30.2-spot ESPN ADP drop to 90.9 caused by lingering foot and ankle issues. Mixon has averaged over 1,200 yards per season across eight years, so Freedman is reluctant to abandon a volume back if he’s merely discounted rather than dead.

Matthew Freedman urged managers to sell Quentin Johnston after a 15.6-spot slide to 173.1 Underdog ADP. Johnston’s 55-711-8 sophomore line was encouraging, but the Chargers drafted Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith and then added Keenan Allen in free agency. A weekend concussion was the final straw for Freedman, who sees too many mouths to feed.

Matthew Freedman said to sell Jack Bech after the Round 2 pick’s Underdog ADP cratered 17.2 spots to 203.2. Preseason usage has shown Bech working strictly behind Jakobi Meyers, erasing hopes he’d open as the No. 2 wideout.

Matthew Freedman recommended selling Brandon Aiyuk after his ADP dipped only 5.6 spots to 123.9 despite Kyle Shanahan saying the receiver is "on track" for a Week 6 return from a knee injury. Freedman warned that by the time Aiyuk is healthy he could be the fifth option behind Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and breakout rookie Ricky Pearsall.

Matthew Freedman told managers to hold Jordan Addison after a 6.2-spot fall to 91.0 Guillotine ADP. Addison will miss the first three games, and any dip in passing efficiency with new quarterback J.J. McCarthy concerns Freedman, but 1,808 yards and 20 touchdowns through two seasons prove Addison remains an automatic starter once active.

Matthew Freedman advised holding Dameon Pierce at 301.1 FFPC ADP. Joe Mixon (foot/ankle) is hurt, Nick Chubb is now 30, and rookie Woody Marks trails far behind on the depth chart, so Pierce could stumble into early-season starting work. Still, Freedman quipped, "the only problem is that he’s Dameon Pierce," underscoring the limited ceiling.

Matthew Freedman called Isaac TeSlaa a screaming buy at an FFPC ADP of 287.5 after Detroit traded up in Round 3 and watched him post 8-105-2 on 11 preseason targets. With a shaky veteran depth chart ahead of him, Freedman thinks TeSlaa could force his way into the starting lineup early.

Matthew Freedman said to hold Jordan Mason at his 99.5 CBS ADP. Beat writers continue to hype Mason as co-No. 1 with Aaron Jones and his absence alongside Jones in last weekend’s game supports that read, but Freedman would rather chase shares on ESPN where Mason goes outside the top-140.

Matthew Freedman encouraged drafters to buy Marvin Mims after his CBS ADP rocketed 51.6 spots to 153.4. Mims started and played every snap in Week 1 of the preseason, then sat with starters in Week 2—classic signs of a full-time role. Freedman called him one of his favorite late bench picks because the vertical threat finally has snap security to pair with elite speed.

Matthew Freedman suggested selling Tank Bigsby even after a mild 6.4-spot rise to 114.9 Yahoo ADP. Bigsby posted a respectable 820 yards and seven touchdowns last season, but Liam Coen’s arrival has produced a committee mess that leaves the sophomore without a locked-in role. Freedman prefers to cash out before preseason optimism fades.

Matthew Freedman labeled Ricky Pearsall a buy after the rookie’s Yahoo ADP crept to 107.2. With Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and Jauan Jennings (calf) sidelined, Pearsall logged an 88 percent route rate and absurd 57 percent target share with the starters last week. He reminded readers that in four 2024 starts Pearsall went 22-321-3 on 28 targets and even chipped in 3-45 on the ground, evidence he can deliver WR3 numbers immediately.

Matthew Freedman recommended holding Dont'e Thornton despite a 14.2-spot bump to 191.2 ADP. The 6-5, 205-pound speedster (4.3 forty) continues to run with the Raiders’ starters during preseason, yet Freedman noted he could still open the year as the No. 5 receiver. Stash the upside, but don’t overpay.

Matthew Freedman told fantasy managers to buy Joe Flacco at a 279.2 Sleeper ADP now that Kevin Stefanski has confirmed him as the Week 1 starter. Over Flacco’s last 17 NFL starts he has thrown for 4,755 yards and 32 touchdowns, production Freedman believes is more than enough to justify a late-round quarterback slot in superflex or best-ball formats.

Matthew Freedman advised selling TreVeyon Henderson at his 60.2 ESPN ADP. Although the rookie looks explosive, Freedman fears a middling Patriots offense and OC Josh McDaniels’s history of backfield committees will cap touches. Because Henderson is still cheaper on other platforms, Freedman views his current ESPN price as an unnecessary premium for an uncertain workload.

Matthew Freedman told drafters to hold rather than chase Keenan Allen after a two-week, 14.9-spot ADP rise. Allen drew 121 targets with Chicago last season, but Freedman expects Moore to install a deliberate, run-centric attack in Los Angeles that curbs Allen’s weekly upside. At 128.4 ESPN ADP he is fairly valued as a floor player, not a league winner.

Matthew Freedman urged readers to buy Braelon Allen after the bruising back climbed 11.4 spots to a 142.1 ADP. Dwain McFarland’s utilization notes showed Allen rotating with Breece Hall in preseason Week 2 and New York projects for a ground-first game plan. Freedman believes a goal-line and series-spelling role can make Allen an every-week flex at a discount.

Matthew Freedman recommended holding Quinshon Judkins after the second-round pick saw his Underdog ADP spike 24.4 spots to 118.0 when misdemeanor battery charges were dropped. The NFL is still investigating and Judkins has yet to sign his rookie deal, creating short-term uncertainty but leaving open a late-August jump once paperwork is complete.

Matthew Freedman advised buying Emeka Egbuka at his current 105.0 Guillotine ADP because the Buccaneers are suddenly thin: Chris Godwin (ankle) and Jalen McMillan (neck) are sidelined, and Mike Evans is 32. Egbuka has worked with the first team all preseason and his price still lags far behind an UnderDog ADP of 65. Freedman expects the gap to close quickly once drafters realize Tampa’s passing tree may have to run through the dynamic rookie.

Matthew Freedman said Sean Tucker is worth holding after Rachaad White left last week’s preseason game with a groin issue and Todd Bowles publicly stated the Buccaneers "need to give Sean Tucker the ball more." Freedman noted Tucker’s Guillotine Leagues ADP jumped 16 spots to 221.6, yet he remains behind Bucky Irving on the depth chart, so managers should treat him as a contingency play rather than chase-the-ceiling starter.

Freedman advised fading TreVeyon Henderson at his new 60.2 average draft slot (a 10.5-pick jump). He conceded Henderson’s talent but questioned the ecosystem: the Patriots offense projects as merely mediocre and OC Josh McDaniels has a long history of using rotational backfields. Because Henderson is not locked into lead-back opportunities and is already pricier on ESPN than on many other platforms, Freedman believes managers are paying for ceiling while ignoring the sizable floor risk, making Henderson a sell in current drafts.

Matthew Freedman said Emeka Egbuka is a clear buy before draft rooms catch up to the new reality in Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin (ankle) and Jalen McMillan (neck) are sidelined, 32-year-old Mike Evans is "past his prime," and Egbuka has already been running with the first team all preseason. Freedman highlighted that Egbuka’s overall ADP is 105.0 (up 4.8 spots this week) yet his Guillotine Leagues™ ADP still lags well behind his Underdog mark of 65.0. With the rookie flashing play-making ability and a wide-open target hierarchy, Freedman expects Egbuka’s cost to keep rising and urged drafters to secure him now while he is still a double-digit-round pick.

Freedman projects Travis Kelce for 124 targets (TE3) and a TE3 finish but loves the safety of drafting him at pick 72.4 as the TE5. Kelce has never dipped below 120 targets with Patrick Mahomes, and while last season’s 6.2 yards per target was a career low, Freedman noted the Chiefs’ offense could easily bounce back under Andy Reid, giving Kelce a respectable ceiling on top of his elite floor. He views Kelce as the cheapest way to lock in top-tier tight end production in 2025 drafts.

Freedman’s model gives rookie Round-1 pick Tetairoa McMillan 122 targets (WR20) but only WR35 production, making his 67.1 ADP (WR29) a bit rich. McMillan must battle 35-year-old Adam Thielen, who turned 199 targets into 1,629 yards the last two seasons, and he inherits an offense that profiles similarly to the 2022 Falcons—Bryce Young under center and a likely bottom-tier scoring environment. Freedman reminded readers Drake London saw 117 targets in that setup but managed just 866 yards and four scores, warning McMillan investors not to assume volume alone guarantees fantasy relevance.

Freedman pegs Drake London for 123 targets (WR15) and a WR25 finish but notes drafters are paying pick 20.4 (WR9) as if London’s 39 targets over Michael Penix’s final three starts are a full-season indicator. Two of those games went to overtime and all three came against bottom-tier pass defenses (Giants, Commanders, Panthers). With Penix still unproven and Arthur Smith expected to funnel offense through the backfield, Freedman argues London’s ceiling is overstated and his floor is risky at the current price.

Freedman projects Jerry Jeudy for 129 targets (WR11) and a WR18 finish, drastically higher than his ADP of 78.9 (WR33). Jeudy’s 2024 breakout featured 1,229 yards, and in the final 10 games—when Deshaun Watson was out—he posted 69-963-3 on 103 targets with an 87 Utilization Score, the eighth-best among wideouts. With the Browns thin at receiver and noting Joe Flacco’s 4,755 yards and 32 TDs across his last 17 starts plus encouraging early signs from rookie Shedeur Sanders, Freedman says Jeudy "should smash" at cost and is one of the 32 players he is actively drafting.

Freedman called Tyreek Hill one of 2025’s biggest ADP discounts, projecting 135 targets (WR8) and WR7 fantasy output while drafters let him slip to pick 30.9 (WR13). Hill’s 2024 dip was tied to a season-long wrist injury and six games missed by Tua Tagovailoa, yet the speedster still owns a 9.6 yards-per-target mark in Miami (9.5 career). Freedman sees no evidence age 31 will sap his trademark explosiveness and believes a clean bill of health returns him to the elite tier he occupied just two seasons ago.

Freedman slots Davante Adams for 142 targets (WR6) and a WR13 finish while the market lets him fall to pick 37 (WR15). Comparing two-year per-game numbers, Adams has nearly identical opportunities (10.2) to Puka Nacua (10.3) but a better touchdown rate (0.52 vs 0.36) despite playing in far worse passing environments. Now catching balls from Matthew Stafford in Sean McVay’s offense, Freedman says Adams has "a non-zero chance" to outproduce Nacua outright, turning him into a clear value in the late third round.

Freedman is underweight on Justin Jefferson, projecting 146 targets (WR5) and only the WR8 finish while drafters are taking him 5.6 overall (WR2). His concerns: unproven quarterback J.J. McCarthy replacing last year’s 4,319-yard, 35-TD output from Sam Darnold, Kevin O’Connell’s offense likely regressing, Jefferson nursing a hamstring that could linger, and serious target competition from Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Freedman argues the downside risk of sub-elite efficiency is not baked into Jefferson’s price and has placed him on his personal do-not-draft list.

Although Freedman still gives Garrett Wilson 125 targets (WR13), his efficiency concerns slash the projection to WR33 fantasy points, well below Wilson’s 38.1 ADP (WR16). He expects OC Tanner Engstrand’s first NFL play-calling gig to lean slow and run-heavy, and he highlighted Justin Fields’ career 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt as a red flag for target quality. Freedman thinks the combination of quarterback inaccuracy and deliberate pace will make it hard for Wilson to turn volume into yards and touchdowns, labeling him a player he is fading this season.

Freedman projected Ja'Marr Chase for 158 targets (WR3) but the most fantasy points among receivers, labeling him the archetype "future Hall of Famer." He highlighted Chase’s 2024 triple-crown stat line of 127-1,708-17 and a position-best 95 Utilization Score, proof that the Bengals star offers both an unrivaled ceiling and a bankable weekly floor. With an ADP of 1.7 (WR1) Freedman considers the price appropriate but still views Chase as worth the top pick because his target share and scoring profile are so sticky year over year.

Matthew Freedman said Malik Nabers is the safest volume bet on the board, projecting a league-leading 166 targets (WR1 in his model) and WR4 fantasy points while he is being drafted 12th overall as the WR5. Freedman reminded readers that Nabers earned a 35% target share and a 109-1,204-7 receiving line in just 15 games last season, then noted that the Giants passing game should improve now that Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart are competing for the job instead of last year’s carousel. Freedman believes Nabers can easily beat his Round-1 ADP if those quarterback upgrades stick, calling him a player who "could naturally be even more dominant in his second season."